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NoDayJob
01-15-2009, 01:43 AM
You have 3 or more contenders [maximum 5]. What percentage of the time
do you have the winner in your final 2 selections?
raybo
01-15-2009, 06:57 AM
You have 3 or more contenders [maximum 5]. What percentage of the time
do you have the winner in your final 2 selections?

56% - 34 consecutive racecards - The attached screenshot is not set up as a contender list but shows how my grading system does by grade rank:
NoDayJob
01-15-2009, 03:22 PM
Raybo,

Thank you for the posted information.
green80
01-15-2009, 08:56 PM
raybo- I don't know what you are using to pick your horses, but If you bet every race for 34 consecutive cards and had 42% winners, you are doing better than anything I have seen. If they only average 5.00 you have +5% roi.
raybo
01-15-2009, 11:58 PM
raybo- I don't know what you are using to pick your horses, but If you bet every race for 34 consecutive cards and had 42% winners, you are doing better than anything I have seen. If they only average 5.00 you have +5% roi.

Thanks.

This particular set of records was at the same track, 34 consecutive race days, every race per day. These picks were completely computer generated by my Excel spreadsheet program, no user input. The actual Win ROI on the cards I posted was -5.16%. I don't normally track Win ROI because I don't play Win bets (but it was easy enough to figure for that small sample), I play superfectas only. My superfecta ROI for those 34 racecards was +48.22% (however, I didn't play every superfecta race, only the ones that met my value requirements).

My win % for the past 3 years at all tracks I play (Hou, LS, LaD, Evd, Hoo, TuP) is probably closer to 35-38%, with my top graded horse, again, totally computer generated. I haven't tracked the Win ROI for that period but the superfecta ROI is +44.09%.

What this should imply is that one's Win % doesn't tell the whole story. Value is, usually, what makes a successful player. I find my value in superfectas.

Could I make a profit on Win bets, probably, if I followed the same selectivity and value methods that I use in my superfecta wagering. But, to make the same net profit with Win wagers I would have to play more and wager more and that would burn me out. I'm satisfied with what I do.