What percent of the people that gamble win consistently

[joelouis]

I know of 1 person he was on 60 minutes, don't ask me how many years ago I forgot. All I know is that he was Jewish, lived alone, had invested at least 60 hrs a week into his so called hobby and usually bet on , football, baseball, basketball. He said that is your really really good you could make a living. He also said that the percentage of people that make a living out of gambling, that include's horse betters is about 2%. Be honest with yourself how many horse betters have you known that always tell you about the winners or the great day they had. You never hear the ones that lost their business, house, car, marriage etc. Just a little something to think about when you make your next bet on whatever. I myself have seen the light. I am not judging anyone I have been there done that, I just have seen so many guys and women throw away their lives. It is really sad when you think about it. I hope I do not get banned for writing this, but I could see why I would. After all lets all stick our heads in the sand and not think about it.

[HUSKER55]

Stock market is not any different. Make sure you include stock brokers and anyone with a 401K. How many people lost their homes who don't gamble?


$800B in bailout money. That is a lot of people. They were not all gamblers. Even the porn industry wanted bailout. They gambled they could show us something we ain't seen before and lost.:D

Those that want to make a living gmbling will find a way to do so. The rest are recreational and those that have a problem are people with a problem. Get counciling. I am thinking about those that want to "hit the big one". There is no accounting for that. People who don't take responsibility for themselves are not your problem. Sad situation but not your problem.

[Robert Fischer]

technically the term gambling is inclusive of wagering on uncertain events.

however most for-profit players do not consider themselves to be "gambling"

gambling has gained an unfair negative connotation.

[OTM Al]

I know of 1 person he was on 60 minutes, don't ask me how many years ago I forgot. All I know is that he was Jewish, lived alone, had invested at least 60 hrs a week into his so called hobby and usually bet on , football, baseball, basketball. He said that is your really really good you could make a living. He also said that the percentage of people that make a living out of gambling, that include's horse betters is about 2%. Be honest with yourself how many horse betters have you known that always tell you about the winners or the great day they had. You never hear the ones that lost their business, house, car, marriage etc. Just a little something to think about when you make your next bet on whatever. I myself have seen the light. I am not judging anyone I have been there done that, I just have seen so many guys and women throw away their lives. It is really sad when you think about it. I hope I do not get banned for writing this, but I could see why I would. After all lets all stick our heads in the sand and not think about it.

This is getting really lame. You start multiple threads complaining about a dq to try to get people riled up and then you post garbage like this. Sorry you have a severe gambling problem. While I suppose there may be a couple people on this board who do as well, the vast majority of us here play well within our means and have a great deal of fun doing it. So frankly, if I want preaching I will go to church. Whether you get banned or not is not my decsion, but one thing you can do for yourself is get your own head out of a place that doesn't normally involve sand.

[ClockerQ]

i agree Al. I wonder what joelouis is doing here myself :confused:
I started learning about gambling in the bowling alley when i was 12. bowling for $ after the jr league was over and playing the pinball machine for $. started going to the track when i was 16. i only got in trouble once, when i was about 19. i owed a bookie around 1,000 and that was a lot of $ back then. it was betting on football. once i grew up i realized that its not any fun betting with $ u need for bills. i saw a lot of guys get ruined when i was a kid. i learned. its like anything else. u have to control it.

[Zman179]

The question that you need to ask yourself is: why am I investing my hard earned money in a game in which 99 people out of 100 are losers? I think that you need to no longer consider this game as a possible form of income and more as a hobby. If you can't do that then you need to quit.

Bottom line is: if you've seen many people ruin their lives as a result of a gambling addiction, don't believe for an instant that you aren't immune from suffering the same fate. It's ok to bet on the horses, but you must be responsible.

[nobeyerspls]

I go to the track (or simulcast facility) two or three times a week and I don't think that I'm gambling. In fact, I hold that the successful horseplayer has an aversion to gambling. He would never buy a lottery ticket, play a slot machine, or engage in any random-outcome game of chance.
As a parimutuel wagerer (my substitute term) I try to master the two elements that can get me to overcome the takeout: handicapping and money management. Said another way it's not just what you bet it's how you bet it. A great deal of discipline is involved including skipping more races than you bet.
I do see the gambling types there though and there is a commonality among them. They play most of the races, use their favorite numbers sometimes, bet more when they're ahead, and are often influenced by the board. I saw one guy cash for a large amount and then play a $100 quikpik exacta box. You'll see them for a few days and then they're gone again, probably rebuilding a bankroll.
No need to feel sorry for anyone. We're a free society which means that we're free to do stupid things. The winning horseplay isn't going home with the track's money, its source is those that lost.

[scgmhawk]

T-Horse Racing is the only thing that I "gamble" on, other than Super Bowl boxes, and I do it for fun. I play within my means and have no problem doing so. I enjoy the intellectual challenge and excitement and at least feel that I can gain an edge. At least I have a chance to have fun and break even or make some money, as opposed to when I play golf and pay $50 - $100 in greens fees and have no chance of re-couping my "investment".

I think if this hobby, as with anything else in life, becomes all-consuming then it's time to step back. If you think you might have a gambling problem you should seek assistance. Better that then letting it ruin your life. Just my 2 cents.

[twindouble]

I have serious doubts about this 2% only that win playing the horses. At the track no one counted my money when I entered or when I left. Like anything else in life no player can stay on top year after year and getting bumped down wouldn't mean your a loser for that year or in the game as a whole. What about granny that hit that $150,000.00 playing her numbers on a $2.00 ticket, I've seen many of them over the years. Today there's so many different pools the public has access to that spreads that money around to large variety players. I've known weekend players that did very good playing the horses and many spot players that were winners just hit and run. What about the guy that hit that huge Breeders Cup pick 6 with a $12.00 play, is he counted? How many whales are out there churning millions scoffing up that rebate money for a 2 or 3% profit that is supported by some people here? For some players just hitting 4 or 5 good payoffs be it supers or pick 4's for the year puts them in the black. Who's counting them? A buddy of mine had a pad answer when someone asked him if he wins playing the horses, "no I come here every day to throw my money away". That always changed the subject.

If only 2% of the members here win at the game, there's an awful lot bull going around. Again, I find that hard to believe. Where these statistics come from is the question. I don't know of any independent study that's been done. I say independent because those that are against gambling their stats are always skewed anyway and they always vote for to sin taxes.

Subjects like this are far from being a priority of mine. There's other things that are more important to me as a player and what the wife expects of me.

Good luck today,

T.D.

[Overlay]

I hold that the successful horseplayer has an aversion to gambling. He would never buy a lottery ticket, play a slot machine, or engage in any random-outcome game of chance.

As a parimutuel wagerer (my substitute term) I try to master the two elements that can get me to overcome the takeout: handicapping and money management. Said another way it's not just what you bet it's how you bet it. A great deal of discipline is involved including skipping more races than you bet.

That summarizes it for me. The pari-mutuel aspect of thoroughbred wagering, and the skill involved in handicapping, are what separate horse racing from the types of negative-expectation, luck-based, true gambling games that you mentioned. Being able to judge the actual winning probability of horses and exotic wagers, and betting only when the odds/payoff will compensate you for the risk you're taking, are the keys.

[kenwoodallpromos]

technically the term gambling is inclusive of wagering on uncertain events.

however most for-profit players do not consider themselves to be "gambling"

gambling has gained an unfair negative connotation.

Which is why the Indians were smart for using the term "gaming", making their activities seem more like a non$$$ kids' "game".

[The Bit]

That summarizes it for me. The pari-mutuel aspect of thoroughbred wagering, and the skill involved in handicapping, are what separate horse racing from the types of negative-expectation, luck-based, true gambling games that you mentioned. Being able to judge the actual winning probability of horses and exotic wagers, and betting only when the odds/payoff will compensate you for the risk you're taking, are the keys.

That sums up my outlook on it.

[dav4463]

Gambling is only a problem when you lose all the time.

Most horseplayers win and lose but not lose enough to cause a problem and when they win, it's icing on the cake!

Some horseplayers will bet their last $2 and go home broke. That could be a problem!

Some make a living at it.

We all eat. Some overeat and cause a problem.

Some people do drugs and function normally. Some abuse them and it's a problem.

Many people drink alcohol with no problem. Others abuse it and it's a big problem.




You can only control what you do and not worry about others. You shouldn't lecture to people that "your way" is the only way. So you lost your house due to gambling or the stock market. That doesn't mean everybody will lose their house. It's not horseracing's fault. It's not the stock market's fault. It's your fault for making a bad investment.

[acorn54]

i think the guy on 60 minutes you are referring to is clem banks, he is out in las vegas last i recall. i saw a piece on him it might have been 60 minutes i don't remember but it was interesting to see how someone that makes a living on gambling operates.
of course most every horseplayer on pa wins too :lol:

[GaryG]

Hey TD.....good to see you back! Hope all is well.

[InFront]

2% is not even close. In my opinion I think it is way, way less than 1%. Think about it out of all the gamblers you know over decades how many are good enough to earn their sole living from it? 1 out of 100, 1 out of 1,000?

But the funny thing so many claim they do. They brag they win this or that or how they hit a nice score this day or that day. You hear their stories all the time. Then you find out that most if not all have real jobs elsewhere. The bottom line is I think way less than 1% show consistent profits year after year let alone enough to earn a living at. These are the hard facts. And I would say the majority of these are not even horse or dog players more like sport bettors or poker players. People that earn their sole living are called professional gamblers or as some like to call it advantage players. That is they have found a way to produce a longterm mathamatical edge on a certain "game of chance" based on pure skill NOT luck.

Now there are some others who earn their sole living on selling products or picks that deals with games of chance. Could be software sellers, tout services, public tv/newspaper handciappers, racing products, books, systems, etc. These guys may call themselves professional players but are not UNLESS they also earn a living from their actual wagers year after year.

[twindouble]

InFront;

You telling me that these so-called "advantage" players have a mathematical system that can predict the winners, when all this horse flesh, human intervention, and chaos that comes into play? Plus pick 2,3 and 4 losers in the gimmicks? Or is the latter excluded? Man, sounds like my dream come true. I hope they put those numbers up for sale, we all can be winners. Then we can challenge that less then one percent at the top. I'm sure they are smart enough to take "advantage" of those nice rebates on top of that brilliant system. Better yet, I'll create my own numbers and blow Mr. Beyer out of the water and a few others, sell my house and become a whale. Isn't life great?

Think about this.

Quote; You can create a smoke screen of impenetrable complexity around your operations and call it brilliant innovations.

Have a good day,


T.D.

[InFront]

What I said was not a mathamatical system but maintain a mathamatical edge meaning they are able to maintain longterm profits. They have an "advantage" over the game of chance they play. Whether on horse/dog racing, sport betting or even casino games such as poker and blackjack.

But as I posted the rarity of such a person is almost null. They are so rare you'll probably never meet one. They don't win based on luck or how the stars are lined up but win due to incredible knowledge and pure skill which probably 99.9% of players don't have even though many think they do which is why they have 9-5 jobs or other sources of income. These " true pros" have accomplished something that millions before them have tried but failed at.

Now there are those that play the horses or gamble on other games for pure enjoyment and do it only as a hobby which is fine. Sure most of them would love to cross over to the "pro" side but probably is one of the most difficult things to ever do. While these comments may sound negative I'm just telling like it is but sure many forum members will agree on this.

[atlasaxis]

Excellent thread on this topic back in December started by Ron Tiller, including an ever insightful article by Barry Meadow from ATM on page 2 which answers the TS's original question.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53169&page=1&pp=15

[acorn54]

isn't it possible to get tax records from the irs. i mean when you file taxes you put down your occupation. maybe the irs releases this info not on individuals but as a class of taxpayers labled "professional gamblers". i wouldn't know where to look on the internet but maybe someone more computer savvy than me could find the info and post it here.

[twindouble]

Hey TD.....good to see you back! Hope all is well.

All is well Gary, thanks for the welcome back. I have three great grandchildren now. I still have all my hair, and the brain hasn't thrown me any curves yet. Can't stand these darn bifocals though. I hope to have another 20 years playing the horses. I wonder if that will break the record?

Regards,

T.D.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Define success?

How much would someone betting horses have to make to be considered a success??Half as much as a middle class income???Or twice as much since it supposedly lacks credibility??

If payoffs fall underneath the taxable payoff,which I believe is less than $800.Why would somone have tax records unless you feel that unless somone routinely cashes $800 and up tickets they are failures???

That's the sense that I'm getting here is that unless you are in the top 30% earning bracket in the world,but as a bettor,you fall into the unacceptable category.

I guess it just goes against the grain of people's values.It's something to be proud of to be a man,stand up,get educated,go to work,work hard and make a middle class or better income.But if you do exactly the same and accomplish the same betting it isn't credible?

I'm not a fulltime,bigtime,successful horseplayer but I've had success.I wish more players that do beat this game would come out of the woodwork.I know Raybo for one has done so in the past.HANA has profiled some success stories.Saving the game will take more winners to come out and make themselves known IMO as part of the lure of the game much like poker.Tracks aren't atttracting players so it's up to other horseplayers.I'm a $20-40 bettor and have only been in the game since 1996 so I'm far too small of a fish to be an advocate of jack.

Something tells me that unles these people are allowed to sleep on your couch for a year and be glued to the hip for 365 days they still won't believe a thing though.

[InFront]

Not sure if someone could access ones yearly tax forms to find out but that does bring up something I once asked. Years ago in the 80's and in my own business I once asked my tax accountant who was part of a big firm at that time has he ever done someone's taxes year after year and their occupation was a "professional gambler". He said only once and it was actually written right on his tax form this way. He said it was a guy who played both blackjack and horses. Of course he couldn't tell me anything more but that just goes to show you how rare a professional gambler is that is one that makes a decent amount of money year after year to pay taxes, take deductions and list it as their sole profession.

[raybo]

technically the term gambling is inclusive of wagering on uncertain events.

however most for-profit players do not consider themselves to be "gambling"

gambling has gained an unfair negative connotation.

Agreed, it's "investing".

[raybo]

Nobody knows for sure but the general concensus says between 2% and 5%, worldwide.

The reason a higher percentage on this forum claim to be winners is probably due to the fact that this forum does not represent all players world wide.

IMO, this forum contains, as members, a higher class of player. More intelligent and much more technically advanced than the set of "all players".

The demographic of this forum is skewed towards the high end of players.

[twindouble]

Nobody knows for sure but the general concensus says between 2% and 5%, worldwide.

The reason a higher percentage on this forum claim to be winners is probably due to the fact that this forum does not represent all players world wide.

IMO, this forum contains, as members, a higher class of player. More intelligent and much more technically advanced than the set of "all players".

The demographic of this forum is skewed towards the high end of players.

Raybo; I wouldn't for moment question the level of intelligence on this forum. Reminds me of the first business I had, encountering people from all walks of life, lawyers, accountants, engineers, school teachers, farmers, and many with less than a high school education. Guess what? They all drove trucks, like we all play the horses, those truck drivers lived and died on the roads like all other drivers, somewhat like playing the horses. The educated ones didn't start their own sorority, they commingled, ate the same food and looked out for one another in every way. As a matter of fact the traditional language of truckers still exists today, they didn't throw it to wind because computers assist them in their job by keeping logs, inventory, more efficient trucks, directions, and better living conditions while on the road. Some things just can't be taken to "a higher level" because your still driving trucks and still betting on the horses. The conditions will always be the same for both, no one or group can hijack either and turn them into something their not. Primarily because the horse flesh and humanity involved in both. In my opinion the wall street marketers here will fail at that attempt because they are discarding the core that keeps racing in business.


Good luck,

T.D.

[prospector]

there is a great quote from mickey rooney, the actor
" i once lost $2 at the races...since then i've lost almost 3 million trying to get it back..:lol:

[SMOO]

I go to the track (or simulcast facility) two or three times a week and I don't think that I'm gambling. In fact, I hold that the successful horseplayer has an aversion to gambling. He would never buy a lottery ticket, play a slot machine, or engage in any random-outcome game of chance.
As a parimutuel wagerer (my substitute term) I try to master the two elements that can get me to overcome the takeout: handicapping and money management. Said another way it's not just what you bet it's how you bet it. A great deal of discipline is involved including skipping more races than you bet.
I do see the gambling types there though and there is a commonality among them. They play most of the races, use their favorite numbers sometimes, bet more when they're ahead, and are often influenced by the board. I saw one guy cash for a large amount and then play a $100 quikpik exacta box. You'll see them for a few days and then they're gone again, probably rebuilding a bankroll.
No need to feel sorry for anyone. We're a free society which means that we're free to do stupid things. The winning horseplay isn't going home with the track's money, its source is those that lost.

One of the best posts I've read on the subject. :ThmbUp:

[strapper]

Before OTB came into the mix I would say 5 percent of the patrons came away winners; now, with all the added tracks my guess is less than 1 per cent are winners....just too much temptation and not enough knowledge away from your home track. I think of the 100 serious horseplayers I know maybe one or two are career winners. Of course, it's just a guess because you never really know.

[twindouble]

there is a great quote from mickey rooney, the actor
" i once lost $2 at the races...since then i've lost almost 3 million trying to get it back..:lol:

I literally bump into Mickey Rooney in the elevator at Green Mountain race track. Had him cornered so I had him sign my racing form. That was a fun day for all in the club house, back then it didn't cost much to get a booth. He put on a real show routing his 3-2 shots home. :jump:



T.D.

[jimmy m]

I think this is going back aways 60 minutes i think did 2 pieces.The man based out of Las Vegas is a well known pro named Lem Banker and the other piece sometime in the eightys was a man named Gerry Okenuff. There was a book that came out earlier this decade called secrets of the professional gambler out of the drf press books Jimmy

[raybo]

Nobody knows for sure but the general concensus says between 2% and 5%, worldwide.

The reason a higher percentage on this forum claim to be winners is probably due to the fact that this forum does not represent all players world wide.

IMO, this forum contains, as members, a higher class of player. More intelligent and much more technically advanced than the set of "all players".

The demographic of this forum is skewed towards the high end of players.

Raybo; I wouldn't for moment question the level of intelligence on this forum. Reminds me of the first business I had, encountering people from all walks of life, lawyers, accountants, engineers, school teachers, farmers, and many with less than a high school education. Guess what? They all drove trucks, like we all play the horses, those truck drivers lived and died on the roads like all other drivers, somewhat like playing the horses. The educated ones didn't start their own sorority, they commingled, ate the same food and looked out for one another in every way. As a matter of fact the traditional language of truckers still exists today, they didn't throw it to wind because computers assist them in their job by keeping logs, inventory, more efficient trucks, directions, and better living conditions while on the road. Some things just can't be taken to "a higher level" because your still driving trucks and still betting on the horses. The conditions will always be the same for both, no one or group can hijack either and turn them into something their not. Primarily because the horse flesh and humanity involved in both. In my opinion the wall street marketers here will fail at that attempt because they are discarding the core that keeps racing in business.


Good luck,

T.D.

And, your point is?

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=twindouble]

And, your point is?

That's fine with me if you got nothing out of that post. It's not the first time I shot a blank with some here.



Have a good day,

TD

[raybo]

[QUOTE=raybo]

That's fine with me if you got nothing out of that post. Won't be the first time I shot a blank with some here.



Have a good day,

TD

I wasn't trying to be confrontational. I just don't know for sure if your opinion is that we don't have a higher % of successful players on this board than the industry wide 2-5% most agree on.

[raybo]

[QUOTE=raybo]

That's fine with me if you got nothing out of that post. It's not the first time I shot a blank with some here.



Have a good day,

TD

I guess I was a little thrown off by your comparison between horse players and truck drivers, also. I was a long-haul driver for a few years and fail to see the validity of the analogy.

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=twindouble]

I wasn't trying to be confrontational. I just don't know for sure if your opinion is that we don't have a higher % of successful players on this board than the industry wide 2-5% most agree on.

raybo, if you read my other post where I said "I would find it hard to believe there's just 2% of members here that win. Unless I worded wrong. My whole theme in that post was, I believe there's a higher percentage of winners in this game and the stats are flawed for the reasons I mentioned. I'm not a professional writter so allow me some wiggle room if it didn't come across right.


Thanks,

T.D.

[GaryG]

IMO there are more winning players amongst "us" than the larger sample of all horse players. Those who win consistently would tend (I think) to be rather private about their business and are not the ones thumping their chest. Anyway, it is all conjecture. Hey Rook....are you out there?

[twindouble]

[QUOTE=twindouble]

I guess I was a little thrown off by your comparison between horse players and truck drivers, also. I was a long-haul driver for a few years and fail to see the validity of the analogy.

Maybe it wasn't the best way to raise some awareness as to what I think is going on, all I can do is refer to my experiences and I have a great respect for those truck drivers, educated or not. Once they got behind the wheel they were one on the road, no different than players holding the racing form. Truck drivers are the core of commerce, like players are the core of the racing industry. To divide them in any way is a mistake. There is no class structure driving a truck and there shouldn't be a one when it comes to horse players. I could be wrong but from what I've read on this forum there seems to negative attitude when it comes to the average players. I guess I can say elitist. Also a pervasive disregard for "the core" players in this industry.



Regards,

T.D.

[raybo]

[QUOTE=raybo]

raybo, if you read my other post where I said "I would find it hard to believe there's just 2% of members here that win. Unless I worded wrong. My whole theme in that post was, I believe there's a higher percentage of winners in this game and the stats are flawed for the reasons I mentioned. I'm not a professional writter so allow me some wiggle room if it didn't come across right.


Thanks,

T.D.

My bad, I didn't check to see who the poster of that one was. I totally agree that there are more than likely more than 2% successful players here.

[raybo]

[QUOTE=raybo]

Maybe it wasn't the best way to raise some awareness as to what I think is going on, all I can do is refer to my experiences and I have a great respect for those truck drivers, educated or not. Once they got behind the wheel they were one on the road, no different than players holding the racing form. Truck drivers are the core of commerce, like players are the core of the racing industry. To divide them in any way is a mistake. There is no class structure driving a truck and there shouldn't be a one when it comes to horse players. I could be wrong but from what I've read on this forum there seems to negative attitude when it comes to the average players. I guess I can say elitist. Also a pervasive disregard for "the core" players in this industry.

Gotcha,

My use of the word "class" in a previous thread was in context with my belief that there are better handicappers and wagerers, per capita, here than the industry as a whole.

I did not mean that there were lower or higher class people here nor would I intentionally slight the "average" player simply because they might not be as skilled as some here. However, that said, those "poorly skilled" players make it possible for the successful player to be successful. "Human" class has nothing to do with the statement.



Regards,

T.D.

[twindouble]

raybo; Thanks for the clarification; I'm loaded with things to say but it's a tight rope for me not to offend.



Regards,


T.D.

[Rook]

Anyway, it is all conjecture. Hey Rook....are you out there?

Hi Gary,
Yeah, I'm here:ThmbUp: I read PA almost every day as a form of relaxation. I don't post very frequently because when I do, I often end up in a debate, which due to my competitive nature, I will fight to the death to avoid losing. This is not good for my blood pressure or my bottom line.

I wish you the best throughout 2009!

[badcompany]

Being able to judge the actual winning probability of horses and exotic wagers, and betting only when the odds/payoff will compensate you for the risk you're taking, are the keys.

This sounds nice, but, the win/exacta odds can change dramatically after you've placed your bet, especially at small tracks, and you don't even see the payoffs of trifectas, supers, pk4s etc.

[Overlay]

This sounds nice, but, the win/exacta odds can change dramatically after you've placed your bet, especially at small tracks, and you don't even see the payoffs of trifectas, supers, pk4s etc.

As I think has been noted in previous threads on the subject, for every horse with odds that go down at the last flash, others in the race will go up. If you've retained visibility of the winning chances of every horse in the field (rather than concentrating only on finding the one horse that has the highest probability of winning), and bet as late as possible, those breaks will be more likely to even out over time.

I grant your point about exotics for which advance payoff information is not available, but having a full-field oddsline provides a basis for calculating the probabilities associated with combinations, and a means of guiding wagering activity and judging value based on records of personal past performance. (And, as you noted, advance probable payoffs are available for exotic wagers such as exactas, quinellas, and daily doubles, allowing value determination.)

Finally, what's the alternative to taking value into account in some fashion (either intuitively or quantitatively)? Any approach geared solely to isolating selections without regard to odds will eventually be bet into obsolescence.

[ddog]

Hi Gary,
Yeah, I'm here:ThmbUp: I read PA almost every day as a form of relaxation. I don't post very frequently because when I do, I often end up in a debate, which due to my competitive nature, I will fight to the death to avoid losing. This is not good for my blood pressure or my bottom line.

I wish you the best throughout 2009!


Do you have a "take" on the dime supers everywhere these days?

like or no?

[ClockerQ]

I'll put my ten cents in ddog. i don't look at the bet as my main way to wager to make my $ at the track. I like to speculate with it after i make my serious wagers on a race. i consider myself a "medium" bettor. I usually bet around $30 a race. If I like some price horses, the field is good sized and I think the fave is beatable, then I'll box 4 for $2.40 and hit repeat a few times. I've stumbled on some pretty good payoffs this way. Another way I'll play it is I'll key a horse or 2 on top and box 4 or 5 underneath. If you like some price horses in a race its a cheap way to make some serious cash.

[CincyHorseplayer]

As much hoo haa as been made on here,there is still no definitive measuring stick;

Define success?????

Everybody can talk about the controversy of if it exists but I think it is the least the naysayers can do is define what is credible.

If you are up in arms and trying to prove a point you at least have to have a point of emphasis.

Saying everybody is losers with no point of reference reeks of vagueness and biased BS.If you lose,your bad.If ANYBODY else wins it's not your responsibility to rain on their parade.Get out of their business.

Shut your piehole and define success???

[badcompany]

As much hoo haa as been made on here,there is still no definitive measuring stick;

Define success?????

Everybody can talk about the controversy of if it exists but I think it is the least the naysayers can do is define what is credible.

If you are up in arms and trying to prove a point you at least have to have a point of emphasis.

Saying everybody is losers with no point of reference reeks of vagueness and biased BS.If you lose,your bad.If ANYBODY else wins it's not your responsibility to rain on their parade.Get out of their business.

Shut your piehole and define success???

You basically have two different groups: recreational and professional. Each has a different measuring stick.

For the former group success would be having a good time without jeopardizing one's financial well being. For the latter, success is measured in dollars and cents as that group NEEDS to make money from gambling.

[badcompany]

As I think has been noted in previous threads on the subject, for every horse with odds that go down at the last flash, others in the race will go up. If you've retained visibility of the winning chances of every horse in the field (rather than concentrating only on finding the one horse that has the highest probability of winning), and bet as late as possible, those breaks will be more likely to even out over time.

I grant your point about exotics for which advance payoff information is not available, but having a full-field oddsline provides a basis for calculating the probabilities associated with combinations, and a means of guiding wagering activity and judging value based on records of personal past performance. (And, as you noted, advance probable payoffs are available for exotic wagers such as exactas, quinellas, and daily doubles, allowing value determination.)

Finally, what's the alternative to taking value into account in some fashion (either intuitively or quantitatively)? Any approach geared solely to isolating selections without regard to odds will eventually be bet into obsolescence.

You argument seems to be that with the right approach one can take the gamble out of horse racing.

I disagree. While I don't deny the intellectual aspect of the game, when push comes to shove, you're still a guy with an opinion on an event: a horse race, and, once you put your bet down, you have no control over that events' outcome. To me, that's gambling.

[Overlay]

You argument seems to be that with the right approach one can take the gamble out of horse racing.

I disagree. While I don't deny the intellectual aspect of the game, when push comes to shove, you're still a guy with an opinion on an event: a horse race, and, once you put your bet down, you have no control over that events' outcome. To me, that's gambling.

I agree with you that horse races are events where the individual bettor cannot control or guarantee the outcome of any single race, and that betting on race results therefore constitutes gambling in that sense. My main point is that the nature of pari-mutuel wagering, and the presence of consistent probabilities associated with aspects of thoroughbred performance, allow for the occurrence, detection, and long-term exploitation of wagering situations that are favorable to the bettor, unlike a game where probabilities are set by unchanging mathematical laws; the outcome is totally determined by random chance; and the return that a winning bettor receives is always less than the amount that would reflect the fair odds of winning the bet.

[riskman]

"To win without risk is to triumph without glory"

Pierre Corneille (1606 - 1684),

[Rook]

Do you have a "take" on the dime supers everywhere these days?

like or no?

If I had a choice, I would like to play $1 supers every race instead of dime supers. Back in the good old days, it was great fun sweeping pools and cashing in on ALL payoffs. Anybody who bets more than a few hundred $ a race should feel the same way.

So for me personally, the dime bets stink but they are good for the small bettor and have undeniably improved the popularity of supers.

[foz1210]

If everybody won consistently Vegas would be out of business. I think the best horse handicappers probably win 40-45% of the time and that is probably selecting the races they play not playing full cards. If the betting public can make a post time favorite and it wins around 33% of the time then pro's should be a little better. Foz

[saevena]

If a person spends a number of years in higher education training for work in a specific field (jobs are available), then when he/she graduates, (fully qualified to do the job) and finds that he/she is unable to get a job in the field because there are few, if any, jobs available in the field, was he/she gambling by spending their money in expectation that he/she could get such a job?

[raybo]

If a person spends a number of years in higher education training for work in a specific field (jobs are available), then when he/she graduates, (fully qualified to do the job) and finds that he/she is unable to get a job in the field because there are few, if any, jobs available in the field, was he/she gambling by spending their money in expectation that he/she could get such a job?

I won't answer yes or no, however, one could reduce the amount of chance involved, in not being able to find a job, by doing some research on the availability of jobs versus the number of qualified applicants prior to choosing his/her course of study or specialty.

If, for example, one wants to enter the IT field then they would truly be "gambling" that they could find a job, as that field is jammed full of qualified job hunters.

[twindouble]

If a person spends a number of years in higher education training for work in a specific field (jobs are available), then when he/she graduates, (fully qualified to do the job) and finds that he/she is unable to get a job in the field because there are few, if any, jobs available in the field, was he/she gambling by spending their money in expectation that he/she could get such a job?

Selecting a career one has to do some serious ''handicapping," including yourself. There's an element of risk in everything we do. The foundation for anyone's success is doing something you enjoy doing, even if the risk is higher than other jobs or endeavors. There's talent in everyone of us unless your unfortunate to be challenged by a disease or abuse and abuse doesn't just come from the home environment.

When your already invested in your education and the job market has declined just because of an economic down turn, that don't mean you still don't have a future in that field. An educated person has many options to see it through. Those that settle for less than what they are capable of will never be happy, regardless of what they do. Many people change careers, some more than once through out their life, even hobbies. No one tattooed your degree on you and said, this is it for you. So if you see no future in that field, change it, that's what handicapping is all about. We call it picking a winner. :)

Good luck,

T.D.

[bobphilo]

technically the term gambling is inclusive of wagering on uncertain events.

however most for-profit players do not consider themselves to be "gambling"

gambling has gained an unfair negative connotation.

In the movie Havana a reporter asks Robert Redford:

Reporter: So, you're a professional gambler?

Redford: I try to keep the gambling to a minimum.

Reporter: And how do you do that?

Redford: By being very good at it.


Bob