Question on your Percentage of close TRI losses

[Nmytwenties]

While active in the sport my favorite wager was probably the trifecta. I won on approximatly 30% of my attempts, although I am not sure of my exact percentage. I was not one that ever chose to wheel any bets,my trifectas were always in the form of boxing three horses.

What I am sure on now is the percentage of close losses I always seemed to suffer. I didn't want to think that I was just cursed sometimes, actually most of the time, as I figured most skilled bettors were probably suffering the same typical hard knocks of the game which are something you just have to roll with,you win some you lose some.

But it seemed unreal how many of my tri bets were losers with my picks finishing 1st 3rd and 4th or 2nd 3rd and 4th or the dreaded 1st 2nd and 4th.

I actually went back over all my old forms I kept over the past year, over 50 of them, and wanted to get a percentage of just the close losses as I noted above, not counting winning trifectas, just the losers.

I wanted to see if this was the norm or if I was indeed just unforchanate. The losers do include quite a few races in which there were 6 or 7 runners, probably a rough average was 8 runners a race. The close losses I listed above were just over 65% of my losses on these bets.

There was nothing that frustrated me more on the wagering side of things, customer service aside, than the fact that I couldn't hit just a few more of these close losses as I could have really been winning large sums rather than just breaking even or winning small sums at the end of the day.

These type of losses were not that bad as I knew I was almost right on with my picks as opposed to not being anywhere close but it certainly could be frustrating.

[green80]

if you can hit 30% boxing 3 horses, you are doing better than most people.
At 30%, If your average tri pays over $20 you should be able to make plenty. If you are making money, who cares about the close losses.

[BUD]

30% is double what my Tri's do-----Hey I just Tri---OK not that funny


15.66% a plus 0.2----Shht I wish I did not look that up tonight-------:faint:

[proximity]

While active in the sport .

:rolleyes:

[BUD]

I keep 2 logs---One is written--I miss a lot with that--The other is the betting history--I use TwinSpires----N MY 20's was probably just shooting off the cuff without checking his numbers----I would do that early in my game and not even realize I was wrong-----So now weekly I go thru my numbers and try to note any trends---Up or down---



I will give him N My the benefit of the doubt----

[Nmytwenties]

Green and bud -

Most of my wins would be about that average $20 to $25 but on a good number of those tri's ,maybe 2 or 3 of every 5, I would bet a $2 exacta with two of those three horses and I was not able to hit both the exacta and the tri on nearly as good of a clip, so that deducted from winnings.

Wow I don't know how 15% would leave anyone ahead unless they were taking more chances for better odds than I did which certainly is a possibility as I was one of the few that really didn't even look at odds when determining picks, I just stuck with my selctions from day before. I always thought that exotics like trifectas and superfectas should have a minumum payout as I found some were ridiculous, "chalk" or not.

Again I wasn't really asking about winning percentage, I was just wondering if I had tougher luck than most when it came to close losses. And again, as I noted in my first post, I didn't do an exact tally on my winning percentage over the year but I did do daily tallies every night after a visit and they came up to 30% or a little better way too often to not be at or near that. Again some of these were no brainer selections and I was very selective on races I bet.

[proximity]

I didn't even think 30% would be considered that good, ......
.

betting 1-2% of the possible combinations, you're purporting to hit at a percentage that it would take most decent handicappers 10-12% of the possible combinations (win bet) to hit. so there is going to be skepticism about this regardless of the prices.

[Nmytwenties]

It really isn't that tough when you bet races with 6 to 8 runners and you have 3 or 4 of them that are proven backmarkers. Maybe I just layed off alot more races than most, especially when making tri bets. I would never make a tri bet if I thought more than one other horse had a chance to screw it up.

Maybe everyone else needs to take more time looking at races. I was told that I was basically a nut for taking as much time as I was, I guess I was reaping the benefits in a higher winning percentage.

Anyway since this has now turned into a thread questioning my integrity I guess I will forget about the original purpose of posting it, wish I hadn't even bothered. I know I am the "bitter one" but in all seriousness I am glad I got out while I still had some good nature to me, I would hate to be transformed into someone who doubted everything and everyone because I had become hardened by all of it. I guess when you treat this like a moneymaking thing, and lose big, you just start hating everyone who isn't a loser.

Anyone can go back and look at the thread and see the question was a good natured one that was attacked by a evidently jealous jerk. I haven't been to the track in almost a month, and won't ever be again, so I really could give a damn about impressing anyone concering my ability or lack thereof. For god sakes, the thread refered to my losses. So many of my posts are BS, try to find one where I have ever posted a winning ticket of any amount at all.

[proximity]

I haven't been to the track in almost a month, and won't ever be again,.... .

i don't think it's an issue of "integrity" or the mathematical accuracy (or inaccuracy) of your post(s) but rather their posthumous nature. it's like, what's the point?

[Nmytwenties]

to proximity-

As I said I was just curious, it was the only thing that really ever got to me on the wagering side of things, I was just curious. I really wouldn't have seen a reason to respond to the post unless I had a response such as this,

"My percentage of close losses of that nature was roughly _____."

Then any other pertinent comments relative to that one thing.

[miesque]

Nmytwenties - If you are indeed in your twenties (I only take so much at face value over the net unconfirmed), I must commend you for making me feel good for being a little bit longer in the tooth and having accrued more then my fair share of battle scars.

[proximity]

i don't live around cincinnati, but if i'm ever driving through there and you want to fight me over some trifectas.... fine. if you're not getting back in the game though i'm not sure what it would matter?

right now it's probably good that you're sitting out. but you're still here though so it's obvious you enjoy the game and need to find some way to balance it in your life.

[Nmytwenties]

proximity-

That post wasn't meant for you, it was meant for the bruinguy.

[proximity]

Instead I get blindsided with all of these accusations. ......

my initial response wasn't an accusation, but an :rolleyes: at the "while i was still in the sport..." undercurrent flowing through your post. you've retired, but you're still researching your game harder than probably 99% of the players??

if you feel you have an edge, then make the bet(s) through whatever chanel gives the most benefit to YOU. ie. missing out on winning bets just so river doesn't get their 2% (or whatever) isn't being true to yourself.

[overthehill]

I confess that i like others , when i read your first post was shocked to read that you would give up the game after 30% winners on trifectas but admittedly I did not know what tracks you played and that you played tris in such short fields. I never had that experience being mostly a new york bettor betting at a time when they would cancel the tri unless it had enough horses remaining. I think it was 8 or 9 minimum at the time. So I guess I can understand how others would be skeptical initially.

My only experience to share would be that it seemed that there was only one way to win a bet but lots and lots of ways to lose them. I think that over time I was taken down about 3 times as often as I was put up on a dq. and I cant tell you how many times I bet an exacta one way only for it to end up coming in reverse order. just 2 sore examples that i cant forget
when arcangues won the breeders cup at better than 99-1 I had him back and forth with 5 horses and still failed to hit the exacta. fortunately I had a very small win bet on him too. and once at the meadowlands I was alive in a double with 8 horses in an 11 horses field, and the 3 horses i left out ran 123 in the following race.

[Nmytwenties]

Proximity-

I should probably stick to my guns as far as further comments on this thread but I will go forward with this one despite myself.

Another hazard of a message board is for comments to be misconstrued. I never took offense to any of your comments as I didn't see them as an accusation of being unsavory. I am just a very honest and forthright person and don't appeciate being called otherwise by people (bruins) who don't know me.

I stuck with the sport through a couple of bad happenstances involving customer service issues (I don't want this to turn into another debate about that) because I know I am pretty good. I really didn't think I was that much better than anyone else and I still don't. I have been happy with my decision but I am still a fan of the sport and still a observer, more casual than before for sure but I enjoyed following the sport before I made a bet and will afterward and if I see a marked improvement in the issues I have mentioned as things that need to be improved I might be back in the future, but probably not.

As for the research I did on my past results, which was done yesterday, hey I never said I had found anything to replace the track as a good use of my Monday off day since I quit about a month ago. I have been doing a whole lotta nothing to be honest on Mondays though I was suprised to see that Unsolved Mysteries has made a comeback on Spike TV. Funny most of the episodes are just repackaged episodes from the 80's...lol

How would an agent approach a client about getting a gig as one of the actors on the lame dramatizations on that show, "hey boy do I have a role for you". Time to fire that guy I would say....lol....Those stupid nonsensical UFO and alien reenactments used to scare the hell outta me as a kid, now I just laugh at how nuts the abductees look.

[Nmytwenties]

overthehill-

Yeah I never said my success on trifectas, I guess better than most, was based on regular winners featuring 5-1,6-1,and 7-2. I was a very conservative bettor and liked to spot easy trifectas even if they wouldn't pay much. I have mentioned in the past that money was not really what was attracted me to the sport, it was the challenge, and I often made these bets to get the chance to drive up my percentage, if not artificially, by making tri wagers that were fairly simple.

Having Arcqangues on any ticket should have been a winner regardless of what else you had,lol,tough loss there. Hopefully you won't be getting any smartass comments saying that your claim is BS'ing anyone, wish you luck there. As I told him (bruin) in a response to a private message he fired off to me a minute ago, I think the guy is just miffed that they don't have hockey on ESPN anymore, leads him to be picking fights on message boards, especially when the network will air just about any other sport imaginable.

[2low]

He said he hit roughly 30% of his triacta plays playing 3 horse boxes.
A guy like this wouldn't be quitting the game, he'd be going to the track with zeal.

You could throw darts at the Golden Gate form and do it:lol:

[Nmytwenties]

Bay Meadows was even easier, one of my favorite tracks before it closed. Golden Gate at least has a few field sizes of 8 or 9 on most cards, rarely did Baze Meadows reach anything over 8. Alot of their cards would feature the first 3 races having only 5 horses, I don't even think they allowed tri betting without six runners.

[raybo]

I'm not going to get into the hit percentage thing as far as ragging on you. I suppose if one were playing into 6-8 horse fields 30% might be possible.

I am a superfecta player and have an 8% hit rate which allows me to make a good profit. However, I never box horses as the ticket costs and lack of adequate coverage cause straight box tickets to be far less profitable.

Concerning your original question, concerning the normality of missing many tickets by 1 runner, this is, at least in my case, the norm. I have not actually counted how many hits I've missed by 1 horse but there were certainly enough to make me curse under my breath. The big majority of those misses were/are on the win line due, most certainly, to the fact that I bet box-wheel tickets with only 1 horse on the win line about 90% of the time.

In short fields and betting 3 horse box tickets I would imagine a high percentage of losses would be caused by one of those 3 boxed horses not hitting the board.

[raybo]

Heck, with 3 horses boxed in a short field, and doing some thorough contender handicapping, one would expect to have at least a 30-40% (or more depending on how good a handicapper one is) chance of hitting the winner, a better % of hitting 2nd, and an even better % for 3rd (just looking at sheer odds). I realize that there are better, more profitable, ways to structure Tri tickets, but still, in short fields a 30% hit rate with a 3 horse box isn't unbelievable.

[pic6vic]

NMYTWENTIES

You will always have lots of close calls. Everyone experiences them. The reason is that when you box 3 horses you are saying they all have an equal chance. Now if you have the first and second horse and then the fourth horse that would be a close call. BUT how does anyone know before the race which one of the three horse would finish fourth. I'll try an explain with pick 6 players. They hit 5 out of six and say I just missed by one race. If I played one more horse I would have hit the pick 6. I tell people how did you know which race you were going to miss.

If you are hiting at that rate and enjoy playing that way, do not get upset at the near misses. because if you make an adjustment it will probably cost you more money.

Good Luck

[JohnnyBatTBD]

I never ever box trifectas. Instead I look to hook up my cold exacta with 1-3 other contenders. I'll bet $20 straight tickets and look to collect $300-500 when it clicks. I don't know how often I collect, but I like the satisfaction of knowing I had it dead right when I do. If I don't have a solid opinion about the race outcome (in at least 1/2/XXX order), I look elsewhere.

Johnny B.