Cholly
01-12-2009, 10:17 PM
In the aftermath of the Fix-Six scandal at the 2002 Breeder’s Cup, there was an outcry about the integrity of the tote systems. Most tracks reacted by (temporarily) stopping the betting earlier, preventing past-posting and producing odds that were fixed when the chute opened. The tracks suffered significant handle declines, and aborted the early-stops several months later. Soon after, handle returned to normal
That series of events convinced me that past-posting was occurring…and much if not most of the lost handle was due to losing the action of those who had previously been able to bet after the first furlong had been run.
So it was with great interest that I read the remarks in a pre-holiday thread where several posters mentioned an apparent decrease in incidents of late odds-drops on horses who had seized an early lead. I couldn’t help noticing that the timing of their comments coincided with significant national handle declines in November and December.
No doubt much of the lost handle is due to the economic recession, aversion to betting synthetic tracks, and other reasons. But suppose that sometime this fall the tote companies instituted new protocols that are effectively dampening past-posting…it would follow that those who had previously been past-posting would cut their action dramatically. Could this account for a portion of the current handle decline?
That series of events convinced me that past-posting was occurring…and much if not most of the lost handle was due to losing the action of those who had previously been able to bet after the first furlong had been run.
So it was with great interest that I read the remarks in a pre-holiday thread where several posters mentioned an apparent decrease in incidents of late odds-drops on horses who had seized an early lead. I couldn’t help noticing that the timing of their comments coincided with significant national handle declines in November and December.
No doubt much of the lost handle is due to the economic recession, aversion to betting synthetic tracks, and other reasons. But suppose that sometime this fall the tote companies instituted new protocols that are effectively dampening past-posting…it would follow that those who had previously been past-posting would cut their action dramatically. Could this account for a portion of the current handle decline?