Secrets of Handicapping

[tanda]

I read a favorable post on this book and was interested in trying the ProPace software, so I decided to try the book.

I returned it within less that 24 hours.

The author recommends a trifecta stategy based on the number of the horses. He discusses picking two horses with immediately sequential numbers (5 and 6 for example) and making sure that you use one odd and two evens or vice versa. Actually, the first requirement takes care of the second. I think that is the gist of the idea (I do not have my copy since I returned it, also I was laughing hysterically while reading it).

Why not just pick numbers out of a hat?

I don't care what else he writes and programs, anybody who thinks that you can pick horses based on their numbers has so little credibility that everything else he says or writes is suspect.

[Dick Schmidt]

Tanda,

No, no, no! You missed the real heart of the book. You need to coordinate the numbers with saddle cloth colors, otherwise the whole thing just falls apart.

This book is a hoot!

Dick

[JimG]

You guys can't be serious? This is GuruLJ your talking about!!

If you are serious, I have 1 word for you...unbelievable!

Jim

[Tom]

I am very happy with the ProPAce software. I don't use the TBC's for trifectas, just the contender Report in conjunction with my handicapping to make a horse not only has odds but is also a contender.
Tom

[NoDayJob]

This may not be as far fetched as one might think...considering horses are herd instinct animals. ~ HOSS

[Dick Schmidt]

NoDayJob,

I was (of course) kidding about the color thing, but you are right about the herd instinct in horses. Jim Bradshaw developed a similar theory in quarter horse racing. It does sound like it just might work, but it doesn't. Walk through a couple of day's results and see how many races two numbers next to each other come in first and second. Even if you believe it, and you like the 5, do you use the 4 or the 6? If you'd like to try it out, however, I'd be glad to book your bets.

Dick

[BIG HIT]

Dick iam a propace user and very satisfied the average pace/spd works well.The tbc is not meant topick trifectas on a stand alone.But more to help structure your bets so it does not cost you a fortune.His book maybe a joke to a lot of you guys.But it has helped me put it altogether.And have won with it more and at higher prices i ever did before.Have been playing hores since 1968 read byer brohammer kinky handicapping and host of others.Which to me are geared for every day player.His book and news lettersor lesson are very helpful.You guys can lol but it does work for me.Just like what you do and use works for you.Like htr program which is a hell of alot more money and much bigger learning curve.BUT if they work for you and fit your style then the horse power is with you.And wish you the best

[GR1@HTR]

It's not right to criticize another mans work! I also returned the book, but gave it 72 hours...

[tanda]

The phenomenon described (two horses with immediately sequential program numbers) could have some validity with a heavily biased track ... assuming the horses break next to each other. A race with entires mean the 2 and 3 for example may break a couple of horses apart.

I have not studied it, but even if it appears to happen more than it should, it probably does not. A person's sense for probabilities is often wrong.

For example, in a random 22 person group, there is a 50% chance that two will share the same birthday. Ask people what the percentage is and many will say around 10%. Very, very few will say anything close to 50%.

So, I am sure that if you work out the probabilities, you would see that it occurs more than you would intuitively think (if it does occur).

[Lefty]

GR1, hope that not right to criticize thing a joke. That's
exactly what we do. We review, laud, criticize as we see
it. We humans are very judgemental, and that's a good
thing!

[GR1@HTR]

Yeah Lefty, it was a joke...I've ripped his book on this site before...And would be willing to do it again!

[Lefty]

GR1, Just goes to show what a bad memory i'm developing.
PRN didn't think much of book either.

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by Dick Schmidt
NoDayJob,

I was (of course) kidding about the color thing, but you are right about the herd instinct in horses. Jim Bradshaw developed a similar theory in quarter horse racing. It does sound like it just might work, but it doesn't. Walk through a couple of day's results and see how many races two numbers next to each other come in first and second. Even if you believe it, and you like the 5, do you use the 4 or the 6? If you'd like to try it out, however, I'd be glad to book your bets.

Dick

Dick, you would have to check the strength of a contiguous horse. Not just blindly play it. E.G. the horse is one of the 4 highest pace ratings then you might consider it. -NDJ

[andicap]

1. Jerry uses his TBC box with his contenders. I don't know if it works -- seems silly to me but so do chia pets.

2. Jerry's main handicapping weapon are the trainer intent, "darkening" moves. These are the same ones BTW that Jim Lehane uses in his book "Calibration Handicapping."
I think Jim borrowed them from Jerry who is a buddy of his.
Jerry's TBC stuff may seem silly but his book is no joke. Good longshot techniques and if you call him he'll spend hours on the phone with you. A very nice guy, not worth the vitiol expended on him here.
Believe me he's not making much money on all his work.

And unlike others out there, he's not selling his picks.
I consider him a reputable handicapper. Yes, a couple of ideas are, eh, eccentric. But not everything H.G. Wells wrote was a science fiction masterpiece either. (In 1901 he predicted that man would achieve flight by 2000, certainly by 1950, two years before the Wright Bros. So he was wrong once. That doesn't mean you throw out everything he did.)

[Tom]

Nice post. I too, like Jerry's work and I still use ProPace regualrly, even though I am now using HTR. When ProPace picks a longshot that also has an HTR factor in its favor, I get good results.
For those that think his writting is "scattered" may I suggest they read some of Doc Sartin's materials?
I got a lot out of both Jerry's and Jim Lehanes books-things that are paying off at the windows. To each his own.
Tom

[hurrikane]

All I've ever gotten out of this guy is a laugh. To each his own.

BigHit...fyi....HTR program is free

[anotherdave]

I haven't bought the book, but do get the emails he sends every week. There is some interesting stuff there. One thing that has stopped me from buying it (even though it was down to 24.97 last time I looked) was that all of the analysis he shares in the emails are after the fact. I would really enjoy seeing him decipher a couple of races before it runs (like Jim Lehane does). I don't think it would be giving away the store. Win or lose I want to see how he approaches it. Sometimes people write him and say so and so won the 8th at Calder and paid $75, and how could it win. Then he goes over it and almost always shows why you should bet it. I am sure he is very knowledgable on handicapping, but that just doesn't impress me.

[BIG HIT]

HI he is a value better so his final decision is odds as his news letter shows gets the race down to 3or4 horses.Then looks at value odds line and then if there is value on one or maybe two horses bets those to win place

[BIG HIT]

Hi yes your right it is free but ther is a monthly fee?And weather pro/pace fit you or not this guy really put in time to help you with the lesson or program not only can you call him.But he will call you! and that call is on him.I was not one of his better clients.As far as computer program.But htr has more info to break a race down and for that no doubt is a superior program and if I may say you are more knowledgeable then I about horse racing.But for me as a player pro/pace was simple enough and made me a winner as i asume htr has for you that being the case what more can one ask fore.