My Santa Anita Derby Numbers

[Que]

Below are my numbers for this year's Santa Anita Derby (North American races only)


#1. Atswhatimtalknbout (4-2-1-1 $119,120)
3/16/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (988-1005-1020-1026) (1033) 1028 2-Nose Grd (2|250,000) taken in hand, lagged, off rail, 5wd rally, furious outside rally
2/20/2003-SA2 1 1/16m (988-1004-1026-1035) (1043) 1030 1-3/4 Alw (NW1X|56,000) chased, off rail, 3 wide move 2nd turn,led past 1/8,gamely
1/24/2003-SA7 1m (974-1020-1029-1027) (1013) 1030 3-2 1/2 Alw (NW1X|56,000) bit awkward start,4wd 7/8,split foes 5/8,late bid at 2nd
1/4/2003-SA6 6f (936-981-na-1011) (1058) 1016 1-1/2 Mdn (48,000) off bit slow,settled,split foes turn,tight 1/4,late surge inside

#2. Buddy Gil (8-4-1-1 $279,455)
3/16/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (1029-1023-1025-1026) (1023) 1028 1-Nose Grd (2|250,000) settled, between, awaited room 3/16, split, surged, just held
2/23/2003-SA8 6.5f (1007-1035-na-1041) (1032) 1044 1-2 Grd (3|100,000) chased, 3 wide, outside hill,5wd into lane,drifted in,clear
1/11/2003-GG8 1 1/16m (1000-1011-1008-998) (969) 1003 7-4 1/2 Grd (3|100,000) stalked rail, bid 3/8p, weakened
12/14/2002-GG8 1m (1021-1027-1017-981) (875) 1004 5-11 Stk (75,000) dueled 3w early, 2w 2nd turn, empty

#3. Domestic Dispute (8-2-2-1 $229,320)
3/16/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (1015-1017-1026-1021) (1003) 1023 5-3 Grd (2|250,000) angled to rail, chased, came out, 4wd into lane, no late bid
1/18/2003-SA7 1 1/16m (997-1013-1027-1035) (1042) 1026 1-3 Grd (2|150,000) settled,off rail,split foes 3-1/2,3wd into str,led past 1/8,clear
12/21/2002-Hol8 1 1/16m (985-995-1006-1010) (1010) 1020 3-3 Grd (1|200,000) saved ground, stalked pace, came out lane, bested rest
11/30/2002-CD11 1 1/16m (1012-1021-1014-991) (929) 991 9-4 3/4 Grd (2|200,000) forced pace,slim lead,exchanged brushes stretch, tired

#7. Logician (6-1-0-2 $62,100)
3/16/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (1021-1029-1029-1023) (1002) 1024 4-2 Grd (2|250,000) 5wd into 1st turn, forced, bid 3deep, gamely to the wire
2/28/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (998-995-1005-1013) (1021) 1013 3-1 Alw (SNW1X|56,000) stalked pace, outside, 3 wide 2nd turn,bid lane,outfinished
1/12/2003-SA2 1m (1028-1023-1010-1003) (976) 1008 1-6 1/2 Mdn (S|55,000) off bit slow,stalked,bid 4 wide, led 3wd into lane,clear,driving
12/21/2002-Hol8 1 1/16m (977-990-998-1001) (997) 1013 6-8 Grd (1|200,000) btwn foes early, settled, chased, off rail, no rally

#13. Ocean Terrace (3-3-0-0 $160,400)
3/8/2003-GG8 1 1/16m (999-1023-1022-1015) (991) 1018 1-1 1/2 Grd (3|200,000) stalked pace 3w early, bid 2w 2nd turn, led 1/8p, driving
2/16/2003-SA3 7f (984-1007-na-1025) (1036) 1026 1-1 Alw (NW1X|52,000) speed, angled in, dueled, inside, inched away 1/16,gamely
12/26/2002-SA6 6.5f (1013-1015-na-1022) (1020) 1019 1-5 Mdn (48,000) speed, dueled, 3 wide, 2 wide turn,fought back lane,gamely

#19. Kafwain (10-4-3-1 $775,848)
3/9/2003-FG9 1 1/16m (973-987-1010-1009) (990) 1010 2-2 1/4 Grd (2|750,000) between foes, off rail, 4-wide second turn, not enough late
2/1/2003-SA4 7f (1016-1039-na-1047) (1046) 1033 1-4 1/2 Grd (2|150,000) stalked pace, outside, 4 wide move,led 3wd into lane,ridden out
12/21/2002-Hol8 1 1/16m (968-987-1004-1015) (1034) 1024 2-Head Grd (1|200,000) off bit slow,settled,3wd move 2nd turn,came in 3/16,led,outgamed
10/26/2002-AP8 1 1/8m (1017-1034-1039-1028) (1000) 1024 2-2 3/4 Grd (1|1,000,000) in tight first turn, between turn, finished well

#20. Ministers Wild Cat (4-2-2-0 $112,050)
3/8/2003-GG8 1 1/16m (988-1017-1016-1012) (994) 1014 2-1 1/2 Grd (3|200,000) 4w to backstrtch, bid 3w 2nd turn, lugged in stretch, hung
2/9/2003-GG8 1m (988-1002-1011-1013) (1006) 1018 1-1 1/4 Stk (60,000) tracked 3w in hand, led upper stretch, drifted in, held drvng
1/11/2003-SA4 7f (1029-1028-na-1024) (1009) 1018 1-7 1/2 Mdn (48,000) speed, dueled, inside, inched away 1/2, drew off, handily
12/26/2002-SA9 6.5f (983-1001-na-1026) (1049) 1020 2-3 Mdn (48,000) pressed pace, 4 wide, stalked turn,no match,2nd best

#110. Flirt With Fortune (4-1-0-1 $43,366)
3/16/2003-SA5 1 1/16m (1033-1024-1013-995) (945) 996 9-17 1/2 Grd (2|250,000) prominent, inside, continued to save ground, moved up, tired
2/23/2003-SA8 6.5f (929-1012-na-1026) (1031) 1034 3-6 Grd (3|100,000) shut off start, settled,angled in hill,split foes lane,late 3rd
2/9/2003-SA6 6.5f (878-975-na-1011) (1049) 1020 1-Neck Mdn (48,000) unhurried early, inside, swung out lane, closed willingly,up late
12/22/2002-Hol6 6f (981-992-na-981) (955) 996 5-12 1/2 Mdn (41,000) chased, btwn foes, green into turn,3wd into stretch, weakened

NR. Indian Express (1-0-0-0 $4,842)
3/22/2003-SA6 6.5f (1019-1020-na-1022) (1016) 1024 4-2 3/4 Stk (75,000) broke in, settled off leaders, 3wide turn, angled in, mild rally

NR. Iron Lad (0-0-0-0 $0)

[Que]

Buddy Gil 14.60 5.80 3.80
Indian Express 21.60 7.80
Kafwain 3.20

[Tom]

What is a significant difference between numbers on your scale?
Is 1028 much better than 1024?

[Que]

Tom,

The value of one length varies by distance... i.e. roughly 7.5 pts at the 1/4m call, 3.8 pts at the 1/2m call, 3.1 pts at 3/4m, and roughly 2.5 pts at the finish--however, this last number depends on the distance of the race. Therefore, the difference between 1028 and 1024 equals about 1 length at the half, and 1.5 lengths at the finish.

Que.

[PaceAdvantage]

$14.60 on your 2nd choice...again, nice #s