Bias or better yet "anti-bias"

[melman]

Yes bias is in the eye of the beholder. That is why I like it so much. Very hard to package this type material. I say bias DOES exist and leads to very good plays with very good prices that the general public does not seem to be on to. The Kenneland meet this spring was a prime example. For a period of time the inside posts and horses with early speed were almost unbeatable. What throws many people off of bias is the bad way they go about looking for it. Example the first 4 races of the day are won in a wire to window fashion. But all the the horses were heavy fav's or very close to the fav. In looking for a bias I am watching for horses to wire that in the past have had trouble holding on, or a string of 3 or higher choices that win. Really taking advantage of bias however is not when it is going on. It is the NEXT start of the horses involved in bias days. Many people seeming ignore the "bias aided" victory. This I call the "anti-Bias" horse. Same deal with post position bias. I have no problem with those who think bias does not exist, matter of fact may their ranks grow. LOL

[andicap]

Agree with you in the same way that people ignore a horse that gets a good number by way of an easy trip or a long, easy lead.
When I used to bet the trotters (lo, those many years ago), trips were an essential, basic part of handicapping.
Track bias is just another form of trip handicapping.
That doesn't mean you or I can't have
a debate over whether one exists or how strong it is.
I think one problem is that people are "either-or" looking for whether the bias is there or not. Well, it could be a slight bias, a "7" on a 1-10 scale, say. It's very hard to categorize how that will affect the horse next time, but this is an art not a science after all.

[melman]

Agree with your statements andicap. No problems at all. And yes it is an "art" form. And I would agree that it can be placed under the title "trip handicapping". During periods in the winter meet at PHA some of the big players just love to pound horses with speed from the outside posts. Sometimes this leads to exacta's paying less then you would think they should. But at the risk of repeating myself the real money is in following up on the NEXT start of the horses involved in the bias. Best of luck to ya andicap and I love to bet the "big track" i.e. BigM, Woodbine and Balmoral harness for "trip" reasons.

[ridersup]

Melman:

Good example of the anti-bias was this year in the opening weeks of Churchill Downs. All those speed horses that went wire to wire at Keenland were heavily bet but couldn't carry their speed at Churchill. The closers at Keenland who were coming up short were winning quite a few races at big prices. A perfect double edge sword.


Ridersup

[Rick Ransom]

I agree with you guys completely. What you're talking about isn't in anyone's past performances and requires a lot of record keeping. Therefore, it is of value. It's much more accurate to analyze what happened in the past than it is to guess what might happen today. Assuming things will return to normal is always safer than assuming extreme conditions will persist. When a past bias disappears, you will profit from it. Most will continue to play as if the bias still exists.