Projected Trifecta and Superfecta Prices

[TrifectaMike]

I'm interested in hearing how players project trifecta or superfecta prices.

Of course, one could do a mutivariate regression analysis using individual odds, and exacta odds as predictors, and arrive at a formulation.

If you have an opinion, let's hear it.

Mike

[Anderon]

For Tri's I use the Win payoff x (times) place payoff x show payoff. Now my software program already does this automatically for me based on the updated pools every 10-15 seconds off my live feed. It really get tricky for supers and I don't do them as there are just way too many combinations, but I do the exactas and tri's however.

[threegoldstars]

use the following formula to determine the "fair value" payout of a trifecta:

winners odds x (1 + second place horse's win odds) x (1 + 3rd place horse's win odds) = Fair $1.00 Trifecta Payout

Examples:

take the 3rd at Turfway on Dec. 20th:

2.50 x (6.50 +1) x (6.3 +1) = 136.875

Actual payout was 84.40 (very poor value with favorite on top!)
___________________
take the 5th:

5.00 x (12.6 +1) x (10.0 +1) = 748

Actual payout was 465.50 (very poor value despite the absence of the favorite)
____________________________
3.10 x (8.2 + 1) x (2.4 + 1) = 96.97

Actual payout was $106.80 (decent value despite the precence favorite and 2nd favorite)

[raybo]

Both Tris and Supers are dependent on their respective pool sizes. They are also dependent on the % of losing tickets which means they are dependent on how low the favorites odds are and what the favorite does. They are also dependent on the number of horses in the race. If the favorite doesn't win, the payoff increases dramatically, naturally. If the favorite misses the board completely, the payoff increases exponentially.

The following superfecta scenarios assume the favorite is 1/1 or less. If the favorite is more than 1/1 then the estimated minimum payouts will double or triple depending on the odds on the other 3 top 4 favs.

The best one can do is to estimate the minimum payoff, ie:

1st scenario: if the favorite is on your win line and the 2nd favorite is on your place line and the 3rd favorite is on your 3rd line and the 4th favorite is on your 4th line, and this combination hits, in that order, then the payoff will be extremely low, no matter what the pool size is, this is a no-brainer, of course. This would be a 1, 2, 3, 4 ticket (1st fav, 2nd fav, 3rd fav, 4th fav). In a $30K-$40K pool, 8 horse field, this ticket pays less than $20 for a $1 super.

2nd scenario: If your have the top 4 odds horses on your ticket but you have the 2nd favorite on your win line and the favorite is not, then the minimum payoff will approximately double the previous scenario (8 horse field, $20 to $40 @ $1). 2, 1, 3, 4 ticket.

3rd scenario: If the above scenario is true but you have the 3rd favorite on the win line without the 1st or 2nd favorite on it also, then the minimum payoff will be approximately 4 times higher than the 1st scenario where the favorite was on the win line ($40 to $80 @ $1) 3, 1, 2, 4 ticket

4th scenario: If the above scenario is true but you have the 4th favorite on the win line, alone, then the payout will be approximately 8 times higher than the 1st scenario ($80 to $160 @ $1). 4, 1, 2, 3 ticket

The previous 4 scenarios are, generally, the lowest minimum payout scenarios.

If the favorite misses the ticket completely and the next 4 favs finish in that order then you are looking at a minimum payout of $200 to $400 @ $1.

If the fav wins but you have non-top 4 horses on any of your other lines the payout will increase some over the 1st scenario, dependent upon how high the odds are on the non-top 4 horse and which line it is on.

After these scenarios the minimum payouts increase exponentially according to the win horse's odds and the minimum odds horses on the remaining lines.

Granted, it's not an exact science, however, if you apply a few rules to your go-no go wagering decision you can set a minimum acceptable payout. My personal minimum acceptable payout is approximately $600 @ $1. This payout is not unusual, at all, for field sizes of 8 horses or more and a decent sized pool. I stay away from races where the favorite is 1/1 or less and is not a false favorite. I also stay away from races where the top 4 favs are all on the ticket and any odds favorite is on the win line. So, basically, no 1/1 or less win horse and at least one of the other top 4 favs is not on the ticket, and I have at least 2 horses with odds of more than 10/1 on the ticket.

I play box-wheel tickets only, ie:

1
23
2345
23456