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InControlX
12-23-2008, 07:17 PM
The DRF Text Charts include a Trouble field for each entry which is represented by a Y/N entry in the field. I presume this is a catch-all indicator for "stumbled at start", "bore out", "bumped" etc., but my attempts to get a full definition from DRF have not been successful. I was running some sorts on an eighteen month database and assigned the indicator to jockeys instead of the horses on the hunch that some jockeys might be more "troublesome" than others. The results showed that the "Trouble Percentage" for jockeys ranged from a low of about 2% (including some very good jocks) to a high of 38% (including some notorious jocks), with most in the 5% to 8% range.

I'm interested in opinions as to whether it is a jockey rating at all, since some jockeys are probably stuck with more upstart mounts than others, or might a low trouble percentage be a valid indicator of superior ability?

ICX

so.cal.fan
12-23-2008, 07:33 PM
Very interesting questions, IncontrolX.
I would guess the frequency of getting horses into trouble coincides with their approximate win percentage?
One angle I know of. Jockey Chris McCarron used to watch the video replays often, when he did he would always critique his own ride.
If he felt he was at fault, inevitably, he would ride the horse back and often win next time out!
I also know jocks who go in early to the steward's room and watch replays of their rides.
Very interesting study you are doing. Good luck to you.