Steve Haskins "to watch " list

[abe]

I know some of you do not like him, but Steve Haskins put out his latest "to watch" list for next years Derby Trail today on The Bloodhorse. I already had all but 7 on my list. Of the 7 I didn't have: I believe Beethoven, Atomic Rain, Uno Mas, and, even with Thunder Gulch as sire, Believe in Hope all have too much speed to go the 1 1/4. I feel that Capt Candyman Can will do better on Turf. As for Obligingly, I'm not that high on Officer for a Derby sire. That leaves Stimulas Plan who could get the Big X from (check me on this Stan) War Admiral by way of Searching, Admiring, and Courting Days. I'll add this one. Your thoughts? :cool:

[Horsefan]

I only got a glimpse of the list, I did pick Pioneer Of The Nile to win the Cash Call but, unless he dramatically improves, I think he'll be running his usual third against the better horses. I don't know how he'll do on dirt, they only started him on turf because they needed a race long enough to fit him.

Friesan Fire did not sound like he much liked to run, or challenge other horses-something to that degree. To save time I almost have to write him off now. Mental issues perhaps, Pioneer Of The Nile had some at the beginning too.

BY THE WAY- WHERE IS CRIBNOTES? Anyone heard?

Haskin (curious to why others don't care for him, not to argue, just would like to learn) had Imperial Council down as starting once- his last out he did win. But his first start I believe was where he had a hard fought duel with Hello Broadway- earning 2nd but leaving the rest of the field some 7 lengths in those two's wake. Since his win he has disappeared, to me at least. Does anyone have any updates? I really depend on the racing press like ntra, bloodhorse, drf, ect. and their articles - I wish that they would write about more horses. Even little tidbits to keep us posted, something like ntra's bios, but with more horses included.

As I learn more, and realize that many of my favorite two year olds wilt on the Road For The Roses, I'm thinking that Indygo Mountain may be spared that fate and ready to be at the right form come Derby time- total guess on my part, just throwing it out in case.

"Chocolate Candy will relish longer distances" - I read that Candy Ride's do better shorter, I must have read wrong. How sadistic that a weight loss guru should name a horse for such a decadent treat. Capt. Candyman Can's trainer is a Carl Nafzger protege- he treats horses like fine wines or good cheeses:)- giving them all the time they need. Time enough to see if he can go further? Win against better horses? If he doesn't do really well in his next race he's probably off of my list.

The California horses, running on those tracks, are too challenging for my past performances free analysis. Am I wrong in saying that East coast horses have the edge for the Triple Crown trail?

Well Positioned where did he go? 14 1/2 length win, 90 Beyer. I read that he is seriously bred to route. He's owned by Big Brown starting owner Paul Pompa, trainer Pat Reynolds said in a bloodhorse article-

"I don’t rush horses, and my 2-year-old record is less than resplendent, by choice. I don’t get that many well-bred horses, and the ones I do get I take my time with them. I try to protect them as much as I can, because I don’t like having to make those calls to owners. So, this horse has got a great foundation under him, and he didn’t turn a hair after the race. He decimated a field of well-like maidens. Shug McGaughey’s horse was coming off an 84 Beyer and Bruce Levine told me they had a runner. There were seven tips in the race.

“In his first race, all of our jocks were out of town, and I put Alan Garcia on him, but he and I weren’t on the same wave length as far as strategy and the two of them just weren’t in sync. I thought we had a colt with untapped potential, but things just didn’t work out. Maybe the light bulb just didn’t go off. With the sharp work (:47 3/5) in blinkers and the addition of blinkers in the race, he put everything together. This morning he’s walking around like an older horse, so I was very pleased with that.”




This might explain his poor debut. Right now IEAH wants to buy him. If they do I'll still be glad that he is not whisked off to Dubai (no offense to the sheiks, just can't love the horses when their out of sight and out of mind) His big win was a mile in 1:38 3/5, compared to the Discovery Handicap Stakes (next race) run in 1:40. Can't wait for his next race!




Break Water Edison seems below par. Maybe Hello Broadway too. Terrain will always be there around third or fourth in good company, I thought that he would do better in the Jackpot. It sounds like they were determining if he stays on the TC Trail based on that race. I don't think he fits on it to win. Maybe same with West Side Bernie, just guessing there. Big Drama has the distance issues maybe, or hopefully maybe not- he's a winning machine right now!




If the Sheiks can't win this year they should try again next year by importing our better trainers to go along with? I'll root for USA connections but it would be sad to see all of those top notch colts not figure in the Derby in some way.





Well that's what I think, it may not be much, but I am trying to learn as I go along. In 2009 I am tracking all two year old colts, making my lists of my fave sires (all of them!:)), and I might be willing to accept that even those brilliant winners who will never figure in the TC- are still fun to track and champions in their own right. I also really, really hope that Vindication get's some big winners sometime- I was so hoping that he would carry on Slew's legacy. Or at least one of his colts now for him:ThmbUp:



Merry Christmas Everyone!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[pktruckdriver]

Are these on the list too



Advice Gone Astray

Believe in Hope Jose Adan

Charitable Man Steet Hero

Donotivum Square Eddie

Flying Pegasus Vineyard Haven


Just a few to ponder

[juanepstein]

dan hendricks at santa anita.

[WinterTriangle]

I think if I hear Indygo Mountain once more. ;) That scratch at FG when he was supposed to race Freisan Fire ...and then Uno Mas blew by Freisan.:confused: Sons of AP Indy, perhaps overhyped at this stage of the game? JMHO


Right now, I like Old Fashioned, son of Unbridled’s Song. Would love to see a Larry Jones win.

Also Beethoven.

I also like some of the ones I don't hear mentioned a lot, like Haynesfield....with a Beyer of 101 in the remsen.(Compare that to Pioneer's 86, or Capt. Candyman's 85).

Quality Road was on Haskin's list, but I don't think he'll be ready to run a route?

What about Giant Oak? A giant, indeed. Churchill is kind to turf horses, no?

What about Mr. Rod, trained by Dan Hendricks?


What about Big Drama? Won 5 of 6 career starts?


For The Oaks, I have Laragh. Love her breeding, and plenty of speed, let's see how she matures.

Lemme know what you think of ones on my starting list.

[WinterTriangle]

well guess I'll get to see more of Old Fashioned:

"Larry was quoted this week on bloodhorse.com, "Old Fashioned won't go in the LeComte; maybe the Risen Star, but I think they cut the purse in that one. So he might go to the Southwest and stay out there with my string at Oaklawn...."

:jump: :jump:

[Horsefan]

Hey Pktruckdriver and Winter Triangle! Forgive my response based on my almost total lack of past performances, it's the reason I have veered away from posting at PACE for the last year! So many people here no so much and I keep putting off learning to enjoy reading all the tiny stats on a form. I'm sure after awhile it get's easy as pie, but I'm not there yet.

Pktruckdriver, Advice and Gone Astray I thought had not done so well in their last starts. Has Believe In Hope started since being sidelined by an illness? Last I looked Flying Pegasus had started 3 times (2-1-0), any other starts? Street Hero retired with an injury- very sorry to see him go, Street Cry has had such good babies! Some of your faves and mine off to the land where Derby dreams seem to dry up- Dubai. Jose Adan, Vineyard Haven and I believe Donativum (not sure on him though) I don't know if Charitable Man went too, he was recovering from that minor injury last I heard. Pktruckdriver I look forward to talking about these colts more with you, I'm trying to jam in my research before the year ends and they are no longer two year olds!

Winter Triangle, I add in Indygo Mountain like everyone else! He originally was in my Keeneland Graduates of 2007 Dream list of horses to watch for, so I was already cheering him on. Plus I have been swayed recently by other opinions that horses that are hot as two year olds do less come Derby time (although Street Sense and others would beg to differ) If I remember right I did not think much of Uno Mas and him besting Fresian Fire does not upgrade my opinion on FF. As for AP Indy, are his colts better later? I like Old Fashioned too, there is an AWESOME picture of him and a smilin' cowboy Larry Jones on the blog Green But Game- you should check it out! Many other best of the year photos as well. Some have voiced questions about an Unbridled's Song being able to stretch out for those Classic distances, while Bill Finley claims that not to be a problem. Old Fashioned is big, his sire is big at 17 hands, his dam sire is also around 17 hands. I love giant horses and I hope that he can stay sound okay. And no, I am not ragging on Unbridled's Song!!! Because where there was an Eight Belles there was also an Octave- who retired sound as a bell. I'm still working on my end of the year list of early Derby favorites, right now Old Fashioned may be it. I can think of no trainer I would rather see win the Kentucky Derby than Larry Jones, the torture the fanatics against racing put him through was shameful. And he stood up to them with grace and dignity. And owner Rick Porter could use a Derby win too, Hard Spun was awesome and Eight Belles too- would love to see Rick in the winner's circle with Old Fashioned. I'll keep them both in my prayers and anyone else who prays might like to think of them too. If not for the win, for safety and no troubles at least! Beethoven I have not followed but I checked on him and found 5 starts (3-0-1) and a dosage index of 5.86. Now, Imawildandcrazyguy had a DI of 6.0 + and ran 4th in the Derby (remember his big move? I'll never forget that gorgeous gray's claim to fame!). Trainer Caplan called him an endurance specialist. So that puts a hole in dosage index, otherwise it would look like Beethoven is a sprinter. Am I right in that? QUALITY ROAD- One start and won debut? Sired by sprint leaning Elusive Quality, who sired Smarty Jones who nearly won the TC and came in 2nd in the 1 1/2 mile Belmont! Dam Kobla would seem to lend stamina as she is a full sister to Ajina- a North American champion 3 year old (17 starts, 7-3-2, $1,327,915). Their sire Strawberry Road had a dosage index of 1.50 and won the 1 1/4 mile Cox Plate (45 starts, 17-7-7, he raced until 8 years, super durable!). GIANT OAK- All I know is that he is a favorite of a pedigree researcher who I read who really loves to research, and knows alot more than I do! Perhaps he fits on the list of colts to peak at Derby time, if Churchill is indeed kind to turf horses this can be good! MR. ROD ducked the Cash Call, did he run someplace else? I don't know enough about him and I find it hard to fall in love with California horses who run on synthetic. I will always pull for Dan Hendricks though:ThmbUp: Big Drama, can this son of Montbrook stretch out? His unraced dam by Notebook (also sprinter???) has only produced winners, including another big one in Japan. His trainer questions his possible distance limitations as well. They are keeping him at his home base of Calder for now, his next possible races the Jan. 31st Holy Bull or maybe the Feb. 28th Fountain Of Youth. I read in the past that Funny Cide was said to have only been able to get the Derby distance "if he went by a cab". I would love to see Big Drama make it as well, without the cab!!! I read about the treasure of Laragh's breeding, and I might be the only one to hope for IEAH's continued success. Let Laragh take the Oaks! Let her take the Triple Tiara- us fans need to help get this series elevated and add more magic to filly racing- hopefully the girls will stick around as the colts are rushed off to the shed. There have been whispers of Stardom Bound and the Kentucky Derby by the way.

Winter Triangle this is the best I can do. Please keep an eye out for my list that should be ready in a day or two. In the meantime, here is Bill Finley's Top 10 Early Derby Favorites- 1. Old Fashioned, 2. Square Eddie, 3. Haynesfield, 4. Vineyard Haven (he notes that he thinks that his times are way superior to Midshipman), 5. Big Drama, 6. Midshipman, 7. Stardom Bound, 8. Pioneer Of The Nile (my personal opinion again- unless he improves he'll run no better than third in the Derby!), 9. Cribnote, 10. Silver City. Here's the link-

ESPN - Top 10 early Derby prospects - Horse Racing (http://sports.espn.go.com/sports/horse/columns/story?columnist=finley_bill&id=3794362)


Can anyone else list their top early 2009 Derby picks as well? Might help me with my list! Thank you in advance.