NY wed.

[Suff]

Like a few enough that I will phone them in from work.

Race 1

Maccabe over Nevada Strip


Race 2

Open and Shut



Race 9

Doc's Option

[NYRAcapper]

Took a good look at tomorrows first race Here's what I see horse by horse followed by how I feel it shapes up.


#1 NEVADA STRIP
Returns just 10 days after a real nice race here at AQU on March 23. Gonna come from off the pace in a field full of speed and that alone makes this one a major player. That + the fact that he has NEVER finished out of the money on the main track (7/2-1-4) and a stellar record at 6F (24/7-2-8).
STATUS: Major Player


#1A LAC GRAND
This one's been burning up the track of late only problem is that was the inner and this ain't. Not too mention I think this one may bounce to the moon here. And thats not taking into consideration that he gets in my opinion a very NEGATIVE Jock switch to Arroyo. That alone is costing him 6 pounds up from his last start.
STATUS: TOSS

#2 TONTO GUSTO
Gary Contessa trained speed ball ran four wide in his last contesting a decent pace all the way after breaking from post #8. Has been very solid at 6F but never has ran on the main track here. Probably well meant and gets a much better post here. Think there too much speed for him to win it but another ITM finish would not suprise.
STATUS: Marginal Contender

#3 STORMY DAY
This one caught my eye right away and that was Sunday Night before I saw the 20-1 MLO. Like I said this field is full of speed, this guys gonna close which gives him an advantage before I even look further., But lets look at his last race vs better. He broke from the 7 hole in a field of 10 and was wide THROUGHOUT the entire race what caught my eye was the 2 1/4 length gain in the final furlong. That race has the look of a prep for this to me and I believe Ryerson more or less spells that out by entering this one for 25K I think this one runs alot better than 20-1
STATUS: LONGSHOT CONTENDER


#4 TO DIE FOR AGAIN
And again and again and again.................................
STATUS: TOSS


#5CATS FURY
Speedball gets a positive jockey switch to Luzzi and while I think Bridgmohan is a better sprint rider than Luzzi for sure, Luzzi has been red hot recently and I'm sure Roy Sedlacek has taken notice. Luzzi also was the jock aboard in this horses most recent win an ALWN1X on the inner. This one is taking a MAJOR drop after dueling with LASER CON and SALT WATER COWBOY while four wide through some blazing fractions. He now drops back to a level he fits at and is 10-1 in the MLO.
STATUS: MAJOR PLAYER

#6 STRIKE THE BRASS
Hard knocking claimer comes back off a 46 day Layoff for some PRIMETIME connections. This guys gonna take a ton of money. Let me tell you why I don't support him. #1 45 day L.O. and no works showing ( I wondering whether Hushion didn't get a little too ambitious with the FEB15 debacle and did the horse more harm than good) #2 AQU MAIN TRACK RECORD 10/0 -2-1, this guy just don't like the track.
STATUS: TOSS

#7 KENDRICK
No doubt Scott Lake has been hot here, and I have always liked this horse, but he was caught 4 wide last time from the 6 hole and he gets pp#8 here probably the same result
STATUS: ITM----UNDER ONLY


#8 THE MACCABBEE
I needed too see two things to make a decision on this horse. #1 FEB 9. 2003 3AQU CLAIM60K claimed from GASPER, GARY (scott lake trainer) and #2 Todays RaceCLAIM 35K Now Unless you are DICK DUTROW a move like this DOES NOT MAKE SENSE. Also this guy wins on the lead and is gonna need a helluva a race to get clear from the 9 hole.
STATUS: TOSS



I personnally think this race comes down to two horses #1NEVADA STRIP and #5 CATS FURY. I'd give the edge to NEVADA STRIP cause the race sets up for him but at 2-1 in the ML he offers little value.

I'd bet CATS FURY to win at 8-1 or above then I think I'd go to the exotics

$5 EXACTA 1/2-3-5-7
$1 EXACTA 2-3-5-7/1
$1 TRIFECTA 1-5/1-3-5/1-2-3-5-7


GOOD LUCK ALL

[Dennis-MW]

Thanks suff,nyra(real good analysis!)

Rain here and there today in NY and it even snow flurried for a while. Supposed to be near 60 clear tommorrow.

D
ps- suff in case you didnt hear they canceled the mass cap2003

[cj]

10 MTP on my lunch hour...I don't like this entry at all. Trainers seem more than happy to lose Lac Grand in the claim box despite his great recent record. Nevada Strip, the other half of the entry, is a contender, but no shot at value due to the 1A.

The 2 is scratched.

The 3 and 4 appear in to deep.

The 8 is also looking to be taken off Lake's hands.

That leaves the winner from among the 5,6 and 7 for me.

The 5 and 7 are big win prices, so I'll bet them.

CJ

[cj]

7 wins easy, we'll be eating good tonight! $37.00.

CJ

[Dennis-MW]

D

[NYRAcapper]

I can honestly say that If I hadn't had to work, Id have nailed this race today. Was out framing a room addition in rural Nebraska out of cell phone range DAMN. I had the trifecta in main contenders and my #3 did run a hellova lot better than 20-1 even though he went of a 30-1. LOL What really REALLY blows my mind is that the crowd let Kendrick go off at 17-1. MY GOD that was the Price of the year. I figured him to go at somewhere betweeen 5-1 and 7-1 considering how hot Scott Lake has been. I hope somebody benefited from my anaysis of this one. Didn't have it in the correct order but had the tri in my contenders.
Now Considering that one of my contenders scratched The Odds on my remaining choices was

#1A 1-2 3rd Mainly because of Lac Grande who I tossed in my analysis and whom I fully expected to scratch. That was such a negative Jockey switch that there was no way the horse was well meant. The fact that this one was in the race pulling the price on my 1A down to essentially 1-2 would've changed my wagering strategy real quick.

#3 30-1 Finished second

#7 17-1 WON

# 5 14-1 Fourth

[Suff]

Tough one Matt. I gave my Double away to a Guy I work with and he called in $100.00 Double to his Bookie at 10:00 am. So I reached in my pocket and gave him $50.00 bucks at lunch and bought half of it.........I just got in from a Long day and watched the replay............You just missed it........I was off all day.....Good thing I'm working all this overtime...........Someone has to pay for these losing bets. Its tough to miss a Big one though. Because you only get a few cracks a Month at seeing one like this dead on........... I just keep betting the horses I like.....despit there paper or odds...........and I know I'll pop my share... I always do.....and so will you. CJ....Good hit.... excellent job.

All you guys that are hitting scores. Start thinking about Saratoga. I'll have my Place The week before and the week of The Travers Stakes. I'll be up there with a Handful of guys. YOu spring for the Airline ticket to albany......I'll spot you a place to bunk down and you can eat off the Barbacue grill. Scrape together the Airfare and some Pocket Money......and your there.

[Derek2U]

ur getting dangerously like that moron BoxCar. It's a sign of
knarled brain cells so please pull urself back from thE EdgE.