odds change

[lamboguy]

charlietown race 8 this evening, how does a horse go from 1-9 to 3/5 after the race starts. i think i have that answer, before the race started the horse had over $8000 to win on him, when the race finished the horse only had about $5000 on him. somewhere between the start of the race and the end of the race money disapeared out of the secure mutual pool. maybe the shadow took the money out!!

[Imriledup]

Its the oldest trick in the book. Bet down a horse to odds to scare away other players and at the last second, create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers. The pools there are too small, so if you want to gain an edge as a big bettor, you have to try some sleight of hand.

[Frontenac]

Its the oldest trick in the book. Bet down a horse to odds to scare away other players and at the last second, create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers. The pools there are too small, so if you want to gain an edge as a big bettor, you have to try some sleight of hand.

That's a pretty tough way to create value at a small track. There aren't enough people following the big money to make it worthwhile.

[broadreach]

create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers
Cancelling wagers with operators I bet with is not allowed anymore, unless you realise the 'error' asap after the bet.

[SMOO]

Let me take a wild guess & say that the horse whose odds went up lost?

[lamboguy]

the horse won and paid $3.40. the point being i would have played it at that ticket, but at 1-9 i either search for something else or pass.

[lamboguy]

the horse won and paid $3.40. the point being i would have played it at that ticket, but at 1-9 i either search for something else or pass.

[onefast99]

the horse won and paid $3.40. the point being i would have played it at that ticket, but at 1-9 i either search for something else or pass.
Your scenario is normally the opposite of what happens at MP and the Meadowlands, I see a 2-1 shot that looks solid and somewhere around the 3/4 pole the horse goes to 4/5. I can see it happening a few times, late simulcast monies etc but it seems it happens a lot more these days.

[lamboguy]

i agree with the usual. the race i was talking about turned out to be a 4 horse field in chariletown. the horse was a scott lake horse that should have been 1-9 or 1-5, not 4-5. its actually a great bet at 4-5. at 1-9 there is no edge, you might as well bet to place and have 2 positions going for you for the same return. west virginia pays 2.20. not that bad a bet at 2.20 for place

[Tom Barrister]

It's possible that somebody bet the horse, didn't like the fact that the odds were only 1/9, and cancelled the ticket. It's also possible, as stated, that the person wanted to bet $1,000 on the horse, bet $4,000 to drive the odds down and discourage others from betting it, and then withdrew $3,000.

[lamboguy]

which ever case it is tom, its not right. there has to be more integrety to the mutual pools than what we are getting right now. when you complain to the track they tell you its the simulcast money. they don't bet, so they don't care. i do, so i care. i stay away. is that good for the handle, i don't think so. let these people lose their jobs because they lose the action coming into the pools and see how much longer this will go on.

even if its legitamate, which i doubt, its no good for business!!

[supercap]

Let me ask a question are you betting odds or horses? I f you like a horse no matter 1/9 0r 100 to 1 dont you bet who you like regardless of the odds?

[mountainman]

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

[SMOO]

Let me ask a question are you betting odds or horses? I f you like a horse no matter 1/9 0r 100 to 1 dont you bet who you like regardless of the odds?

Since your return on investment = win% X average final odds, odds are 50% of the equation. So the answer is BOTH.

[ryesteve]

Let me ask a question are you betting odds or horses? I f you like a horse no matter 1/9 0r 100 to 1 dont you bet who you like regardless of the odds?If you really believe that, I will cheerfully book any bet you wish to make, and since the odds don't matter to you, I'll pay you off at $2.10.

[lamboguy]

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

no arguement there mark, my problem is when a horse leaves the gate with $10,000 bet on him in the win pool, and arives in the winners circle with only $7000. my question is where did all the money go in less than 2 minutes?

[BombsAway Bob]

Its the oldest trick in the book. Bet down a horse to odds to scare away other players and at the last second, create real value for yourself by cancelling a bunch of wagers. The pools there are too small, so if you want to gain an edge as a big bettor, you have to try some sleight of hand.
I noticed a variation of that ruse @ LosAL last year. Many bettors play LosAL as a "get out" track, since they run late. Someone was putting down a decent win bet on a hopeless longshot in the first race, opening leg of the guaranteed Pick-4. Since the pools are small, between $500 & $900 bet early on a horse knocks his odds waaaay down. People putting together quick Pick-4 plays would see the "odds-on" fave in race 1, and include it in their tickets. Then, between 5 and 2 minutes to post, when the majority of win bets came in, the "steam horse" win money would be pulled from the pool as more "tote-followers" money came on the stiff.
I contacted Orlando G. at LosAL about the ruse. He did a search of cancelled bets on one race I noticed, & the bets were mostly $50 & $100 Win tickets, cancelled close to posttime. After I had him have his mutuels dept.check on the abnormality, the practice seemed to come to a halt.
With TVG bets now open to cancellation by the player, I wonder if someone will try to manipulate win pools at a small track in the future?

[supercap]

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping? Are you not letting the betting public influence your selection? Give me your number I will gladly take your money!

[supercap]

Do you go to the track and just look at the tote board , go to the window and bet?

[Frontenac]

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping? Are you not letting the betting public influence your selection? Give me your number I will gladly take your money!

No odds = No bet!

That's why it's frustrating for serious horse players to see the odds swing so wildly after post time.

[cj]

There is simply no way this should be allowed. Anything in racing that is going to even give the hint of impropriety should be illegal.

[2low]

Post Time should mean "post the final odds time". The button is pushed when the clock hits zero.

GG puts a timer up on their feed. I shouldn't be able to enter a bet (or take one back) once that clock hits zero.

By the time the horses are loaded, we should have the simulcast money accounted for if it were done this way. At least the lag time would be short enough they could hold the horses until given the final odds go sign.

[ryesteve]

If you let the odds effect your choice of a horse is that really handicapping?No, it's wagering. You need to separate the two.

[dav4463]

I've heard conspiracies that horses may be getting bet after they leave the gate. How do you explain this one?

Yesterday, there was a horse at Turf Paradise (Brown Wrapper in race 8) who was 9/2 when I bet him. He got stuck in the gate at the start and was dead last by a good margin.

Then he hit his stride and passed the field and won for fun.

His odds magically dropped to 8/5. :confused:

[completebill]

Many years ago, on the California Fair Circuit, when my son was training in California, I would play some parimutuel "games" to try to influence the pools and the prices. The pools were fairly small at that time.
In particular, I would often have some fairly solid "inside" opinion on a horse about whom I felt strongly. To attempt to maximize my price, I would often make one or more LARGE bets, throughout the pre-race betting period, on another horse that looked like a solid contender and that figured to get solid mutual support in any case.
The theory, which worked well in practice, is that my big early wagering would draw even more than the expected action on the "other" horse, driving down its odds, and enhancing my odds on the horse I actually intended to play
The last step, of course, was late cancellation of my early bets, moving the money to my intended wager at the last moment. At that time, at least, bet cancellations were NOT a problem at the windows.
I don't bet at the track anymore, but I'm sure similar games are still being played

[supercap]

This is why I bet what I handicap! regardless of odds.Why would you let the publics opinion influence your selection? Take Saratoga for example, a great place to handicap for the mere fact that it is more tourists than horseplayers, they see a 2 to 1 shot and go crazy just because they dont know any better meanwhile your 4 to 1 shot slowly rises to 8. My selection is never changed by the odd board.

[cj]

This is why I bet what I handicap! regardless of odds.Why would you let the publics opinion influence your selection? Take Saratoga for example, a great place to handicap for the mere fact that it is more tourists than horseplayers, they see a 2 to 1 shot and go crazy just because they dont know any better meanwhile your 4 to 1 shot slowly rises to 8. My selection is never changed by the odd board.

If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.

[dartman51]

If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.

Yeah...no kidding. The name of the game is VALUE. IMHO a horse going off @ 1/5, or 4/5 offers NO value no matter what I think of the horse. As they say, "anything can happen in a horse race.......and usually does." It's all about VALUE.

[lamboguy]

the thing that gets me these days is that i watch betfair, i see they have more money bet on their system than what makes the track parimutual pools.

do you think if there was some integrety to the wagering pools the handles would go up? i say they would easily.

[takeout]

There is simply no way this should be allowed. Anything in racing that is going to even give the hint of impropriety should be illegal.Agree totally, and the list of stuff that needs attention is a very long one.

[Premier Turf Club]

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

Mark:

There are ways to do it and I actually have all the data needed though its not something PTC does.

Computer teams do it, they construct their wagers off of a predicted dividend not the actually tote price at the time they send in their bets. That's why its a fallacy that they all bet at 0MTP. They don't because they are wagering off of predicted payoffs. Now of course some teams are better at dividend projection than others...

It's also how they size their bets for tris and supers in case anyone was interested. There is no "secret" tote feed that shows those matricies. It's all based upon their dividend forecast models. One of the biggest mistakes I made when I played CRW a few years back is that I didn't use projected dividends and ended up betting too many underlays. I know better now should I ever get the inclination to take another crack at it...

Happy holidays to all.

Ian

[supercap]

Appreciate your offer, but I would prefer you just keep betting at the track! Seems you may be one of the Saratogians I was speaking of!

[supercap]

Sounds like you are a typical odd board bettor. I guess the game needs guys like you. Makes it easier for the real pros to make money.

[mountainman]

Mark:

There are ways to do it and I actually have all the data needed though its not something PTC does.

Computer teams do it, they construct their wagers off of a predicted dividend not the actually tote price at the time they send in their bets. That's why its a fallacy that they all bet at 0MTP. They don't because they are wagering off of predicted payoffs. Now of course some teams are better at dividend projection than others...

It's also how they size their bets for tris and supers in case anyone was interested. There is no "secret" tote feed that shows those matricies. It's all based upon their dividend forecast models. One of the biggest mistakes I made when I played CRW a few years back is that I didn't use projected dividends and ended up betting too many underlays. I know better now should I ever get the inclination to take another crack at it...

Happy holidays to all.

Ian
Fascinating post Ian. I've heard of computer programs that estimate closing odds. My methods are different. I'm a low-tech handicapper who bases tote predictions on intuition. With my local knowledge and long experience as a professional oddsmaker, I feel comfortable on the air in commenting on unusual tote action and also in predicting which way the money will move in the final minutes. It's a service other shows simply don't provide.

[ryesteve]

If you are betting without regards to odds, I'll take your action...all of it.No fair, I called dibs several posts ago :D

[cj]

No fair, I called dibs several posts ago :D

Yeah, I was hoping for a cut of the $5.

[DeanT]

Mark,

It is one of the reasons that fixed odds wagering has taken off. People make odds lines and want to use them. In pari mutuel this becomes tougher and tougher. It is a great game for fixed odds. Each horse has an order book with min odds to lay and min odds to bet. When you are filled, you are filled at the price you want, not at the price the horse ends up at.

We have had the technology to do this, and we certainly have the ear of the government, as witnessed by the gaming act and other things like slots. A new model like this should have been experimented with long ago, imo.

[classhandicapper]

I can comment a little on late concellations.

Typically there are rules that prevent betting clerks from doing late concellations because the tracks are trying to avoid odds manipulation. The rules are often related to bet size. If you go to a clerk and try to cancel and change a $2 bet long after stepping away from the window, many will do it for you. If you show up with a $500 straight exacta or 5K to win, then they are way less likely to do it because it is probably against the rules and they could get in a lot of trouble (cancels are generally tracked). However, there are occasions when manager approval can override the rules. Also, if the clerk accidentally punches the wrong horse or amount (not that uncommon for a clerk working quickly in an effort to satisfy a line full of screaming customers that don't want to get shut out), he/she will usually cancel and correct it no matter how large it is and how close to post time as long as the player didn't leave the window.

[classhandicapper]

While the process of constructing personalized oddslines is frequently discussed (and discussed..and discussed...) here on pace, nobody ever brings up the importance of a player's ability to predict actual closing odds.
How can value be identified unless a horse's true chances can be compared to its final price? And the odds can change so dramatically within a min or so to post-and even AFTER a race is underway- that smart wagers can be rendered stupid when it's too late for the player to cancel or adjust.

In my personal betting, I use a margin of safety. If I think the fair price on a horse is about 2-1, I rarely take 5-2. Part of that is related to the possibility that I am missing something or wrong and part is related to the possibility that if I bet the horse it could drop to 9-5 or lower on the last flash. That's one thing that makes large pools preferable. It's harder to move the odds a lot. Of course the flip side is that the large pools at the major tend to attract the best players.

[supercap]

Doubt you could handle it!!!

[ezrabrooks]

I watched the TB part of todays's Sunland Card, and noticed that prior to the 11th, the clock went to 0 MTP, with the horses still away from the starting gate, taking at least one minute, after 0 MTP before starting the loading process. In the 11th, the horses were behind the gate and ready to start loading prior to the clock hitting 0 MTP. The winner (#7) broke well, and pulled off to win by 12 lengths. The 7 horse was 8/1 ML, with over 2K in the P3 will pays, and was one of only two horses not covered in the P4 pays. The 7 horse was 5/1 when the gates opened, and 2/1 crossing the finish line. Strange.

Ez

[lamboguy]

my mother had a nice saying for that ezra, she said go tell city hall!

[ezrabrooks]

my mother had a nice saying for that ezra, she said go tell city hall!

You should have taken her advice before starting this Thread...

Ez

[lamboguy]

you missed a better one yesterday at sunland, there was a horse that left the gate @ 1-9, he broke dead last and his final price was 8-5. of course there was $12k to win on him before the race started, but when the race finished there was only $7k. i guess things just happen. you better go tell city hall, they will do just as much about this problem as the racetracks who broker these wagers.

[startngate]

you missed a better one yesterday at sunland, there was a horse that left the gate @ 1-9, he broke dead last and his final price was 8-5. of course there was $12k to win on him before the race started, but when the race finished there was only $7k. i guess things just happen. you better go tell city hall, they will do just as much about this problem as the racetracks who broker these wagers.What race was this? I can't see anything in the charts from 2/13 that matches.

[lamboguy]

What race was this? I can't see anything in the charts from 2/13 that matches.

it was the 10th race, #7 Lauren P

[Relwob Owner]

charlietown race 8 this evening, how does a horse go from 1-9 to 3/5 after the race starts. i think i have that answer, before the race started the horse had over $8000 to win on him, when the race finished the horse only had about $5000 on him. somewhere between the start of the race and the end of the race money disapeared out of the secure mutual pool. maybe the shadow took the money out!!


All the posts below are correct in terms of the wagers being cancelled-here is another move to keep your eye on-about a year ago, a certain high profile owner who hits at a high percentage was rumored to be caught making big off site wagers against his horses in an effort to jack up the odds on his horses and then he would bet with a bookie....worked for him because he seems to always know when his horses will win......just another wonderfully ethical move on his part

[startngate]

it was the 10th race, #7 Lauren PThanks ... was looking at the winners ... didn't catch that one.