atmospheric conditions

[so.cal.fan]

How much significance do they have on the results of races?

[Rick Ransom]

I read somewhere that extreme temperatures, either high or low, favor stretch runners but I can't prove or disprove it. Wind might dry out a track and depending on the direction either help or hinder stretch runners. Low barometric pressure might make some horses feel better, as it does in humans. High humidity might cause a decline in performance for an old broken-down claimer, as it does for arthritic humans.

Another thing to consider is that the track maintenance crew makes changes according to the weather forecast, and most of the changes have been made before they know for sure whether it will rain or not. So the threat of rain will cause some of the same changes as actual rain.

[so.cal.fan]

How about wind and heavy air pollution?
Seems all of the factors Rick mentioned would have an effect on performance.
Does anyone know if any of these conditions are factored into any numbers, either pace or speed or both?
How about the sheets? Seems that a shipper from a cold climate into a hot and humid one will "bounce"????????

[Rick Ransom]

Arrgh! Don't remind me about smog. I grew up near Santa Anita, and in the summer I could hardly breathe and my eyes hurt. That was before 1970, so it was worse then than now, but I still can't go over there without getting a headache. If it does the same thing to horses, I'm surprised that any of them can run.

I once heard of a guy picking greyhounds when it was a hot day by eliminating the ones that were having trouble breathing. Maybe you can do the same with horses.

[so.cal.fan]

How about Del Mar? Many handicappers think the tide has something to do with the speed of the tracks, both turf and dirt.
I have never been able to satisfy myself on this belief, but I could be missing something.
I know before three o'clock in the afternoons down there, it is often very warm and humid, many horses wash out in the first race. I have noticed this since the 1960's.
I have always thought that on very hot days, the speed always holds, but again, I could be wrong.
It would be interesting if someone wrote a well researched book on how the atmospheric conditions effect races.
Remember the Breeder's Cup run at Gulfstream Park?
Most of the winners came from Santa Anita, and most had been running and/or training at Del Mar. The European shippers washed out very badly and did not run true to form, for the most part.
I am pretty sure that atmospheric conditions do play a larger part in determining winners and losers than most of us pay attention to.
If anyone has done some research on this, I sure would be interested in reading it.

[Rick Ransom]

I do very well at both Santa Anita and Del Mar and not so well at Hollywood, so there might be some similarities between the two. They used to say the same thing (tides) about Golden Gate when I was in the Bay area. I think the horses generally like the mild weather at Del Mar (compared with elsewhere in the country in summer) and run pretty true to form. But that's just my opinion based on my method. Others hate Del Mar. It all depends on what you're emphasizing in your method. I don't think the pace players will like it that well.

[Aussieplayer]

Charles Carroll mentions it very briefly in his book (about some study that some guy did). As an unknown factor, he uses it to support his dislike of daily variants.

Cheers
Aussieplayer

[entropy]

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[Handle]

I was recently thinking about the same thing. I came to this conclusive and definitive epiphany:

I have an Australian Cattle Dog (a blue heeler). He's incredibly energetic and loves to play soccer and catch frisbees. When the temperature is less than, say, 65 degrees he will run non-stop. When it raises above this he'll run for about 10 minutes and then will find shade to lie down in. When I prompt him with the ball, he jumps up to play, but he's definitely fighting the heat (strange, since he is an Australian breed...).

My automobile doesn't suffer (noticeably) from this problem.

So, does the weather, temperature, etc.., have an effect on the performance of horses? I would definitely say yes. Does it have the same effect on every horse? I doubt it, but I need another epiphany to understand that <g>.

-Handle

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Handle
I was recently thinking about the same thing. I came to this conclusive and definitive epiphany:

My automobile doesn't suffer (noticeably) from this problem.

So, does the weather, temperature, etc.., have an effect on the performance of horses? I would definitely say yes. Does it have the same effect on every horse? I doubt it, but I need another epiphany to understand that <g>.

-Handle

Your Blue Heeler doesn't have the built in computer to adjust fuel mixture etc. I think it all comes back to conditioning. The ones in the best condition seem to take the heat better. I often wonder about racing in Florida or CA during the summer. I don't normally play FLA and CA in the summer, any tips on CA or FLA tracks in the Summer?

[Handle]

Maybe his carb needs to be cleaned <g>?

No doubt, conditioning is a factor in all sports. But, to my dog example, the wife runs 5 miles a day with him (in the summer he doesn't like this much). He's 55 pounds of muscle and teeth and can leap up over my outstretched arm (though I'm not too tall at 5' 9") to catch a frisbee. That's a feat considering the Blue Heeler isn't that tall of a an animal. The thing is - the heat just kills him. Not in so much that he can't operate in it, but that he just doesn't want to. It strikes me how much more active he is when its cool. BTW, he also hates to walk on muddy ground. Definitely not a slop canine. Maybe the form should start listing personality traits of the horses - "likes carrots pet peeves people who offer apples and deep tracks...."

-Handle

[ridersup]

so. cal. fan

We have had several discussions about the effect of the wind on this board in the past. It has always been my contention that in areas where the wind is constant it should be taken into account.

At my track the wind is pretty much constant and you can almost look at your pace figures and tell which way the wind was blowing.
The track runs north to south and when the wind is coming from the south the pace figures will usually show F4 F3 S1. The wind assists the horses down the backstretch and slows their speed when turning for home . This scenario usually allows for front running wins. If the wind switches to the north for the next racing day the pace figures will show S4 S3 F1 and generally under this scenario closers usually prevail.

Without pace figures the horses running on the south wind day will appear to be running faster to the second call than the horses running on the north wind day. So I guess what Im saying is that if you don't have daily variants that include pace figures it is pretty hard to determine who the fast pace horse is when horses from the two different days meet.

There is also a school of thought at my track that the tide has a definite effect on the outcome of the race. There are two ponds in the middle of our track and you can easily see when the tide is in as the level of the ponds raise. A lot of the old timers believe that when the tide rises water gets into the running surface and slows it down and then favors closeres. I have not bought into this theory but have done no studies to disprove it.

[so.cal.fan]

Interesting point, Ridersup.
Here in So. Cal. we don't have too many days with wind, but there are a few, and I have witnessed the very conditions you mention.
The tides are interesting at Del Mar. Many say they do have an effect.
I just read an interesting article in Throughbred Times about the
"sheets" TT is going to feature the Ragozin figures in it's
Buyer's Guide to help prospective buyers assess the quality of the runners produced by a mare.
Ragozin explains how they use the wind as a factor in their variant. It is interesting.

[wes]

Three dogs racing across a fresh plowed field after a big rain. The first dog was kicking mud in the second dogs face and the second dog was kicking mud in the third dogs face. The second dog looked back at the third dog and said this is a bitch. The third dog said it better be.

wes

I would think all types of weather affect most all horses in some way where it be good or bad. Sore feet in the mud may be a big plus for some trainers. Only if the horse likes the mud.
Hot weather would affect fat folks like myself and perhaps the age would also. I run fast but stay in one spot too long. I can't get out of bed (Gate) as fast as I once did. :--)

[karlskorner]

At GP you can actually see the "ripple" effect across the track from the change in tide.

Karl

[highnote]

I remember a few years back, 1995 I think, that we had a big Nor'Easter here in Connecticut on March 16th. It worked it's way up the coast towards Boston toward nightfall. Suffolk was able to get their racing in before the storm. The barometer dropped radically. I forget how much, but I remember charting it on graph paper as the storm approached and then passed us here near NYC. The chart looked like a big "V". I don't know whether it was due to the falling barometer or if they sealed the track in anticipation of the storm, but the times were very fast at Suffolk that day.

[delayjf]

Steve Davidowitz gave an interesting assessment of the affect that wx can have on the track in the latest addition of his book. I can't recall all that he said, but he did have some interesting insight as to why the track bias at Delmar can shift from day to day. I believe it had something to do with overcast vs clear cloud cover which affected the way the track would dry out. I recommend all interested parties read his theory on wx.
I was at Belmont park for the Breeders Cups and witnessed the wind for myself. It convinced me that wind can affect horse racing. I'd also have to think that shipping from a cool dry enviroment to a hot humid one ( as was the case in the 99 Breeders Cup at Gulfstream Park) would have a negitive affect on the shippers. This year, the WX at the Breeders Cup was more like Europe and look how well the European horses did.

[Tom]

The problem with wind affecting variants is that it might not be constant for the whole card. It might even cease for a race or two,
then come back harder, etc. This is why pace variants are so hard to calculate some days. At Finger Lakes, I have seen very heavy winds for races 1-4 than no wind for 5-9. If I am at the track, I can make note of this, but if not, I am guessing. You have to take your figures in total context, not just jump on one big number (but this is the same philosophy that made me throw out WE in the Derby).

[entropy]

So, does the weather, temperature, etc.., have an effect on the performance of horses? I would definitely say yes. Does it have the same effect on every horse? I doubt it, but I need another epiphany to understand that

i also suspect yes but don't really know. anyone have some new thoughts ?? what about you seabiscuit@AR ??

[yak merchant]

I'm sure we can rehash the weather debates, but yes it affects the races. Like Tom said the problem is you have to have someone on site taking measurements as it is constantly in flux. We can measure most of the components of "Weather", but as each track's composition is different the amount of Rain affects tracks' differently. Then when you talk about wind it is really a function of not only wind speed, but temperature, Altitude, and Humidity (not to mention horse size) which affect air density which affects aerodynamic forces, which for all intensive purposes is the wind you speak of. So quantifying it is the problem, not the realization that it has an effect.

Just like the Gulfstream BC, if the temperature in Dallas is warm on BC day many horses will not have a prayer. From what I've read Studies have shown that 20-30% of thoroughbreds suffer from some degree of anhydrosis. Horses that come from England and other northern tracks may have never run in conditions that will have truly pushed the horses thermoregulation systems into overdrive. Hence the horses with proven success in similar climates such as SoCal and Florida would logically do better in Hot conditions.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

entropy

obviously it is hard to quantify the effects of wind. This is especially true when you are not physically present in the city where a race is taking place and you don't even know what the wind is. But I have seen some evidence that wind can create an effect like track bias.

First of all Shane Dye who now rides in HK used to argue that the wind at Randwick in Sydney had a big impact on results. I think his view was a strong tailwind in the straight saw all the leaders win and a strong headwind in the straight suited backmarkers. Never tested this myself.

A few years ago I analysed a meeting and concluded there was a track bias with the rail dead or no good. Another guy who is the best judge of form I know told me I had it wrong. There was no track bias. Instead a strong wind blowing into the faces of the leaders prior to entering the straight was forcing them to expend too much energy early and then see them drop off in the straight. I went back and looked at the meeting and his interpretation of events did fit better than my initial view that the rail was dead in the home straight. Basically every horse leading on the rails and often the horse sitting outside it without cover in the run was dropping off and fading badly in the straight. But some were starting to make heavy weather of it before the straight. And some closers were doing OK along the rails in the straight (after having cover in the run).

Since then I have occasionally noticed the same phenomenon. Horses which lead fading but then the closers who have had cover in the run running on OK in the straight along the rails. I saw this exact happening a few months back at a course and felt it looked like the wind was the most likely factor to explain leaders who were favoured in the betting all failing. The leaders start to struggle before the home straight and then other horses run fine along the rails in the straight.

I don't think it was a case of the rails being no good before the straight. When this happens inside barriers do no good at all. But this was not the case.

So there are people out there who think wind can have an impact like track bias. I think they might be right. But if it does happen it is a rare happening. And like I said it is difficult to detect the strength of the wind from a city miles away.

[entropy]

aahhh SB i should have excluded wind as i am sure that does have an effect ( huge in a particular city in Aus i hear ).

measured it for a couple of years but is was never strong enough to make even trrying to analyse the data worthwhile.

more interested in temperature, barometric pressure. it seems to have some value where i hail from but not much, so need a track / s where both vary greatly.

[Exactaman]

Originally posted by Seabiscuit@AR
entropy

obviously it is hard to quantify the effects of wind. This is especially true when you are not physically present in the city where a race is taking place and you don't even know what the wind is. But I have seen some evidence that wind can create an effect like track bias.

First of all Shane Dye who now rides in HK used to argue that the wind at Randwick in Sydney had a big impact on results. I think his view was a strong tailwind in the straight saw all the leaders win and a strong headwind in the straight suited backmarkers. Never tested this myself.



Interesting. Wind is a major factor in harness, particularly winter racing. Generally the effect is the opposite of what this jockey describes--the stretch tailwind propells closers at the point where they are making their key energy expenditure, while it was a backstretch headwind when front-runners were making their moves. meadowlands includes wind direction and speed on their charts, other tracks also commonly announce it on their telecasts.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Dogs do not sweat! / I do not think wind resistance has much effect on 1,000 lb. animals running 37-41 MPH within 2 seconds back of each other. Actully officials think the earth's rotation has more effect on racehorses. They allow shadow rolls but not equiptment for wind! Drafting may be an interesting topic for discussion!!

[turfspec]

Here's a stat taken from an obscure and somewhat eccentric text called "Trackfacts" by Don DiPleco:

Horses Sweating: Starters 780, Winners 73, Win% 9.36, IV .80

Dry Horses: Starters 5565, Winners 670, Win% 12.04, IV 1.03

He suggests lowering the rating of a sweating horse by multiplying the rating by the IV value .80

Rob

[entropy]

Drafting may be an interesting topic for discussion!!

i assume this term comes from harness racing and refers to those behind getting "cover" from those in front. have always understood it was a big advantage and, of course, bicyclists regard it as huge.

still you say you don't think racing into wind resistance makes much difference for thoroughbreds. my peers would certainly have expected it would but when we analysed we found nothing.

still expect it would be a benefit but that it is offset by increased chance of blockage ot interference.

[Seabiscuit@AR]

entropy

I have no opinion on temperature etc and the effect on horse racing. It might have an effect but it is not something I have ever studied.

[cato]

I haven't been to RP much lately but when I used to go a lot, you always had to consider the effects of a strong wind.

I think that a little or moderate wind has little or no effect but ifyou are up at 20 mph+ that is a signifucant force. If you doubt it, go ride a bicycle into the wind alone and then do it following a couple of people (drafting)--its a huge difefrence

Cheers, Cato

[cato]

And while riding the bicycle, try it once with Lasix and once without Lasix :D

Cato

[thelyingthief]

on the issue of wind resistance:

i bicycle a great deal, and i can inform you that drafting is a significant assist. it is estimated that 80% of a cyclist's energy expenditure is overcoming wind resistance. and it is also a fact that drafting is a technique that occurs in a very narrow distance window behind the lead.

maybe this is why EP horses are such good bets?

[kenwoodallpromos]

Windshields, farings- just like on Justralph's bike!!

[andicap]

Do they list the temperature in the charts?
In NY, Post Parade lists the temps and wind conditions for races over the past few weeks.
Be interesting to have temps on a horse's chart to see if any corrolation in the weather.
Why shouldn't heat make a difference. My wife can't stand it if the temp gets above 70. Why would horses be any different?
I've always read horses can stand the cold a lot more than they can the heat because they grow an extra coat in the winter, but you can't shave them in the summer.

[Speed Figure]

All charts have the weather at the time of each race.

[BillW]

Originally posted by andicap
Do they list the temperature in the charts?
In NY, Post Parade lists the temps and wind conditions for races over the past few weeks.
Be interesting to have temps on a horse's chart to see if any corrolation in the weather.
Why shouldn't heat make a difference. My wife can't stand it if the temp gets above 70. Why would horses be any different?
I've always read horses can stand the cold a lot more than they can the heat because they grow an extra coat in the winter, but you can't shave them in the summer.

Andi,

Yes they do. Looks like most are temps measured at the beginning of the card. Different tracks may vary.

Bill

Sorry about the double.

SF,
Looks like same temps throughout whole card in most instances in my database.

[turfspec]

Further stats on "Weather Conditions & the Thoroughbred" from the DiPleco book I cited earlier in this thread. Let me first say that an arched tail is a positive sign in body language and a flat tail is a negative.

FLAT TAIL: Total all Horses 35.13%, Below 32 Deg. 51.00%, Above 72 Deg. 28.70%

ARCHED TAIL: Total All: 47.16%, Below 32 Deg. 36.08%, Above 72 Deg. 52.10%

OTHER POSITIONS: Total All: 11.65%, Below 32 Deg. 9.90%, Above 72 Deg. 10.14%

SWEAT FOUND: Total All 6.06, Below 32 Deg. 3.02%, Above 72 Deg. 9.06

Fairly obvious that sweating observed pre-race below 32 Deg. is due to nervousness so it's interesting to see the difference between 32 Deg. & 72 Deg.

Rob