Sagarin NFL ratings

[Valuist]

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl08.htm

[DanG]

BTW: These guys at ‘Football Outsiders are doing some very interesting things with NFL data imo.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff2008

[Valuist]

Interesting to note that on both Sagarin's ratings and the ones Dan posted, winless Detroit is not the lowest rated team on either scale. That honor would go to the lowly St. Louis Rams.

[BetHorses!]

I have Pitt ahead of Tenn for the top spot. Guess cause I give more weight to the strength of schedule

[rgustafson]

Another interesting thing is the high rating of Green Bay despite its 5-9 record. Although no fan of the Packers, this validates my feeling all season long that they are a much better team than their record. If odds in Vegas for next year future bets are generous, a play on then could be worthwhile.

[DanG]

Another interesting thing is the high rating of Green Bay despite its 5-9 record. Although no fan of the Packers, this validates my feeling all season long that they are a much better team than their record. If odds in Vegas for next year future bets are generous, a play on then could be worthwhile.
I saw most of the Jax & NO games and the Packer linebackers are horrendous! Obviously serious injuries are a main cause. Another case in sports of how important up the middle is. When their safety and ‘mlb- Barnett went down it has all kinds of people out of position. (Not to mention two DE)

I agree with you RG; healthy they could be a value play early next year.

[Valuist]

The Sagarin ratings weight the entire season. Right now, I don't believe Green Bay is the 15th best team. They are 1-6 in their last 7 games.

[eastie]

Another interesting thing is the high rating of Green Bay despite its 5-9 record. Although no fan of the Packers, this validates my feeling all season long that they are a much better team than their record. If odds in Vegas for next year future bets are generous, a play on then could be worthwhile.

that isn't going to help my over 8 wins bet on them this year. i thought it was the easiest bet in history.....the defense plays better in bad weather, they stunk it up this year. jennings is still awesome though

[Frontenac]

Has anybody tried these ratings when betting football?
This week, with the playoff picture being as it is, I don't know that they would be of any value.

Just curious, as I'm putting my tickets together for tomorrow.

[Valuist]

Has anybody tried these ratings when betting football?
This week, with the playoff picture being as it is, I don't know that they would be of any value.

Just curious, as I'm putting my tickets together for tomorrow.

They are best used to get an idea of what a line would be. I would not bet on discrepancies between the Sagarin numbers and the Vegas line because the Sagarin numbers do not take "team momentum" into account at all. At this point in the season, the teams that have been eliminated from the playoffs have little to play for, except Detroit, who wants to avoid the embarrassment of 0-16. That's not to say they can't ever be bet; some teams will start slowly then play well once the pressure is off. But those tend to be the exceptions to the rule.