The biggest bear no longer pessimistic

[Valuist]

Fleckenstein called the tech bubble back in 1998 and the housing bubble in 2004. He recently closed his short-only hedge fund, figuring the money to be made on the short side has already been made.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-markets-misplaced-optimism.aspx

[lamboguy]

i think he is right but.....lets say the dow goes to 16k in say 3 years. do you think the money that you have invested in the dow will buy you the same food and energy then as now? i kinda doubt it. but i could be wrong. my prediction is for gold to be at $1600 within 3 years or even more. basically it looks like the same gamble, but gold has more of a chance of going higher than the equity markets, and it also takes less guesswork.

[Valuist]

I agree inflation will become a problem at some point. I would buy the GLD instead of bullion.

[lamboguy]

GLD is only paper. remember this........ain't nothing like the real thing baby!

[PaceAdvantage]

Fleckenstein called the tech bubble back in 1998 and the housing bubble in 2004. He recently closed his short-only hedge fund, figuring the money to be made on the short side has already been made.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/ContrarianChronicles/the-markets-misplaced-optimism.aspxHow did Fleck do from say, 2002 until late 2007? You know...that period of time when the market went only up?

[lamboguy]

i met him at a precious metal show and asked him the same thing, he claimed he got bailed out with his gold calls.

[Valuist]

How did Fleck do from say, 2002 until late 2007? You know...that period of time when the market went only up?

He did great in 2002 because the market was rotten. It didn't start rising until 2003. But 2003-2007 was all a fraud driven by phony home prices and leverage. Yes, he was early, but he was right.

[PaceAdvantage]

He did great in 2002 because the market was rotten. It didn't start rising until 2003. But 2003-2007 was all a fraud driven by phony home prices and leverage. Yes, he was early, but he was right.So what you're probably trying to say is during this 4-4.5 year period, he didn't do so well? I'm asking because I don't follow the man, but I read a lot of posts here about him...those who follow him, how much did he make or lose during the post-9/11 bull run?

[lamboguy]

not that this means anything but outside of a t-bond, gold was the only asset class that was up year to year in 2008 to date. it is currently up a whopping $2.00 for the twelve month period. but i suspect it is slighly better than other asset classes there were bought and held.

merry christmas and happy new year to all

and wish for all to remain healthy in the years to come.

[Valuist]

So what you're probably trying to say is during this 4-4.5 year period, he didn't do so well? I'm asking because I don't follow the man, but I read a lot of posts here about him...those who follow him, how much did he make or lose during the post-9/11 bull run?

I would guess they weren't great years but I do not have a fund prospectus so that is only conjecture. I believe he has said he had a fairly high cash position at least part of that time. But considering the market gave back all the gains from that period, I'm sure he was willing to sit thru those lean years because when he has been right, its been a windfall.

One also can take the position that his long term views, while excellent, have tended to be early, so him closing his short-only hedge fund is bullish in the long run, but probably too early to interpret as a positive.

[howardjim]

FWIW, I've subscribed to his daily Market Rap and Q & A forum for several years. At about $120 a year it is, in my opinion, the least expensive forthright opinion available. He takes a contrarian approach only when called for and openly warns entering short positions without a strong stomach.

I have often tempered my own opinions and embraced many of Mr. Fleckenstein's after satisfying my personal diligence. He's a straight shooter, a rarity in market newsletters. His masthead states it best, "Often wrong, never in doubt". And, rest assured I am not a shill.

[boxcar]

FWIW, I've subscribed to his daily Market Rap and Q & A forum for several years. At about $120 a year it is, in my opinion, the least expensive forthright opinion available. He takes a contrarian approach only when called for and openly warns entering short positions without a strong stomach.

I have often tempered my own opinions and embraced many of Mr. Fleckenstein's after satisfying my personal diligence. He's a straight shooter, a rarity in market newsletters. His masthead states it best, "Often wrong, never in doubt". And, rest assured I am not a shill.

I like the guy's motto. Very appropriate attitude for pony players to take. When in doubt, pass the race. But when you have a strong or moderately strong opinion and the price is right, go for it because you know from the git go that we're going to be wrong more often than not, anyway.

Boxcar

[PaceAdvantage]

See, to me, this guy should not be getting all of this praise. He was wrong for years, if I'm interpreting correctly what folks have been writing here in this thread.

Just because he lucked out and the market finally turned his way before he went broke doesn't make him a hero.....at least not to me.

[ddog]

I don't know, maybe a guy picking up nickels in front of bulldozers would really rather be the dozer if only one had the guts to trust his own opinion, maybe even for years?

Not a follower of the guy, but if he hung in for years only to be rewarded in the end(this one anyway) then while not a hero to me , he has my respect.

[Valuist]

See, to me, this guy should not be getting all of this praise. He was wrong for years, if I'm interpreting correctly what folks have been writing here in this thread.

Just because he lucked out and the market finally turned his way before he went broke doesn't make him a hero.....at least not to me.

He was about a year, maybe a year and a half early on tech. We've seen how bubbles go on far longer than they should and this clearly happened with tech. I can vividly remember watching CNBC in late 1999 and thinking "how long can this insanity go on? The answer was longer than most figured but the payback was ginormous for tech bears. He was a little earlier on the housing bubble in terms of the equities, but the actual housing market started falling before the equities did. And the housing related bubble has been a long domino effect starting with the homebuilders, then working toward the banks and financials, finally hitting the consumers and commercial real estate. Fleckenstein was a breath of fresh air to the airheaded cheerleaders who tend to populate the financial media.