Form Cycles -- Moving Averages

[andicap]

On my day off yesterday I began fooling around with the idea of establishing form cycles based on a series of races, rather than a single race.
I took three races, calcuated the average Beyers on the two best of these and did that for every three race group in the horse's record. (Of course I didn't bridge layoffs, using 1 or 2 race cycles if there was 46 day or more layoff in the midst of one of those series).
I included every single race, no matter what surface, etc. This was in order to keep it simple. (I did note on my charts if a cycle was dominated by a turf or sloppy track).

I ended up with a chart on an "X" and "Y" axis that gave a fascinatingly graphic depiction of how the horse has ran over the past 12 races. (obviouisly if I had more races it would be more worthwhile, but it would take more time.)

A typical winning pattern for older horses looked like this:
80 86
75 or
70 78
73

Of course not every race was exactly like that, but based on a limited sample, the latest cycle was generally lower than the next to last cycle.
Much of the cycles were based on whether the horse was laid off, etc.,
and this may not hold up over more research, but I'm wondering if anyone has found something similar or done research like this.

For young or lightly-raced horses who were still eligible to jump up, the trend was often the opposite, the last cycle was rising -- that is, it was higher than the next-to-last cycle -- except for horses who only had a handful of races. For those horses I had to chart EVERY RACE rather than a series of races and found they often had a similar pattern to the older horses.

I'll of course look at a lot more races -- all of this may be crap -- but it's the kind of research I love to do.

[alysheba88]

In his last book Beyer talked about cycles and his "three and out" study on older horses. Specifically, he did all kinds of research on what happened to an older horse after three ascending Beyers and the typical result was a reduced Beyer, and often dramatically next out. Contrastlingly, older horses with three descending Beyers often improved,and in some cases dramatically next out.

I see the pattern repeat itself a lot anedoctally, especially the three ascending Beyer then bounce.

Younger horses can improve 4 and 5 straight times on the Beyers without the bounce.

Beyer also pointed out the dangers of looking just at the # and not looking at what created the decline or increase. Was it a four wide trip? Suicidal pace, etc.

[GR1@HTR]

Mark Cramer a while back wrote that horses that won ran about 7 or 9 Beyer points better than they did in their previous race. I manually tested this with another speed fig and it was right on.

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap


A typical winning pattern for older horses looked like this:
80 86
75 or
70 78
73



Not sure what your graph? is showing here?

Tom

[andicap]

Rats it didn't come out...

Okay, a horse would run a series with an average of 78, 86 and lastly an 83.

Or it could be first a 70, then a 75 then a 65. Up then down. Real interested to refine it and track issues of volatility, effect of layoffs on certain issues (i'm sure each horse/trainer is different)

Now if only I can become independenly wealthy so I can quit my job and do this stuff. ;)

[GameTheory]

I would suggest you look at pace figures (half-mile mostly) when trying to determine form cycles -- in relation to each other (previous half-mile figures) and in relation to final figures (if the pace figure went up did the final figure also go up, stay the same, or go down?)

You will find some illuminating patterns....

[Fastracehorse]

I have studied trainer patterns with race horses as I call them - and have come up with a type of universiality in the the methodolgies of trainers in the game.

The problem with using Beyers is that the actual # isn't necessarily reflective of the horse's effort.

What I am saying is this: A public handicapper will discuss a horse's poor effort last race because of his low Beyer - when in actuality, the public handicapper may be talking about the horse's best effort.

This is one of my strengths, adjusting Beyers.

I believe, that I can tell exactly how well a horse ran in a certain situation.

I also don't believe in form cycles - but I do believe that horses get raced into shape or that, a horse may just get a race after a hard effort to maintain fitness.

With long lay-offs: a universiality is a good-bad-good pattern until they get more fit. Then they might string 2 or more good efforts together.

The pattern could also be bad-good bad until fitness is attained.

With some horses - the trainer may give them starts before trying to peek the horse - or they might run strong first-out.

So essentially I look for 2 things: 1) Hints that the horse is going to be strong first out.

2) Hints that the horse is going to be asked for an improved effort while already racing a few starts from being fresh. I call these trainer intentions.

Form cycleing is an impossible concept for me to grasp: How do you know when horse A is going to bounce???

I've tried that for years - it is equal to guessing in many situations. For ex., Why did Riboletta wait until the Breeder's Cup to bounce??

While the term bounce can describe a horse who is physically exhausted, it also can mean that a horse has other physiological ailments.

fffastt

[GR1@HTR]

IMHO, lots of form cycles are products not of a horse going in and out of form but a product of conditions and connections...ie Class moves, pace senarios, and jockey rides.

[Fastracehorse]

The term form cycle doesn't really apply to racing for me.

As, IMHO, the reasons you described are pertinent to the game.

fffastt

[Tom]

I love using pace figs in combination with final figs to evaluate cycles. My favorite in a horse who improves both pace and final figs to new tops, then bounces, run a bad race, then comes back and returns to the pace top but tires in the stretch. Look out nest time. Another good negatvie angle is the horse showing declining pace figs but maintaining the final numbers. He is losing his early speed and this type will fall apart suddenly- this is a primary tip off in top of the line horses. With horses that run up early, I like to add the pace and final figs together and look at the totals to evaluate form. This doesn't work with closers. To evaluate closers, I only look at races where the pace figures is close to what the race today might be - say today figures to go in about a Quirin of 98 - I won't use a race for a closer that raced against a 93 or a 103 - 5 points either way makes it a different pace scenario.

[Fastracehorse]

I only need one figure for evaluation but you touch on an interesting point: tops - bad - close to tops - tops.

It would be intersting if you could specify which class of race horses you noticed this 'cycle' with and the interval time between races ( days between races ).

fffastt

[andicap]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
I only need one figure for evaluation but you touch on an interesting point: tops - bad - close to tops - tops.

It would be intersting if you could specify which class of race horses you noticed this 'cycle' with and the interval time between races ( days between races ).

fffastt

The Raggies and other form cycle theorists say some "close to tops" are not good if its TOO CLOSe and the horse returns TOO SOON. Also for younger horse, "Close to tops" can actually be a negative. You want a young horse to go past its prior top.

Close to tops are good "recovery lines" in the Sheets vernacular in that they are good signs for horses who
a) had a huge figure off a layoff and then bounced off of it. The close to top is a good sign the horse is returning to form, but if the race is too close (within a couple of ticks) the horse can temporarily regress if not given enough rest to recover.

b) If a horse had had a series of bad efforts after a big top or a series of smaller tops, a Close to top is a good indicator the horse is back to form.
Again if a horse's top (on the Beyers) is a 90 and the horse goes from runing in the 70-75 to an 88 he might regress for a few weeks.

Anyway, that' s one point of view.
I think even if you don't use form cylles you have to be open to the idea that they exist -- they just haven't been proven to you yet that they work.

[Fastracehorse]

I haven't seen form cycles in existence.

I think that handicappers try and theorize why horses 'come back' after a series of sub-par efforts. Because, they can't explain the horse's improved effort in other terms.

I think that it would be beneficial if you would try and explain percieved form cycles in other terms - what insight might dawn upon you!!

Remeber this game is about money - I have had a trainer's wife tell me he was working the horse slowly so he could cash a ticket - silly girl.

And, horse's also race for the sake of racing, to maintain a level of fitness.

Further, as I said earlier any assessment based on Beyers is probably inaccurate - unless they are adjsuted.

fffastt

[andicap]

Fair enough.

I will post some examples as I see them -- although they might sometimes be AFTER the fact. So excuse the redboarding. But they will be cases that I saw before the race and used in my handicapping. Maybe I'll make note of the cycles I see when I post my choices on Saturday.

I agree that incorporating pace cycles would be better than just using final figures and I will begin to look into that.

That's what that book (can't remember the name) about pace cycles is all about, but he warns it only works with HIS figures not others. Of course that's what the Raggies say and I've seen the form cycles work with Beyers as well.

[Tom]

I'll keep an eye out for them too, hopefully befor ethe race is run.
That way, I can look stupid live! <G>

FP- I prefer to look at 2-3 yos developing, in non claiming races, and 4-5 year olds in non-claiming or high claiming races. I use a 6-week window as ample time to recover from a hard race. When I expect improvement, it may be the next race or maybe even 2 or 3 down the road depending on what distances they run him back at. I bet there will be several examples this weekend with some of the prep races.

[andicap]

The one distrubing development that has made form cycle handicapping much harder in the last few years has been that more and more horses are stringing tops together without rest.
Some people blame drugs for this.

Remember, form cycles are just probabilities, there are no certainities.

[Fastracehorse]

So use that track.

I will evaluate your form cycles based on adjusted Beyers and trainer intent theory.

Further, I will study Aqu and GP and if you like these tracks go for it.

Thanx Andi - sounds fun.

fffastt

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
The one distrubing development that has made form cycle handicapping much harder in the last few years has been that more and more horses are stringing tops together without rest.
Some people blame drugs for this.

Remember, form cycles are just probabilities, there are no certainities.

I am also seeing more and more new tops showing up in 5 yeear olds, and even a few 6 year olds. Didn't used to see that at all.