missing the point..

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

I know i will be lambasted for for this..i think alot of the threads here are missing the point. nasa type mathmatics and programs are no substitute for taking the horses in context of the race itself..and watching replays ,reading pps drf ,tg ,bris is many times more value to you than pace.basic pace principles should be accounted for but its a minor part of the big picture.condition/breeding/works/trainer intention/jock sw ect all play a major roll in playing the horses..paint the picture with all of these factors and you will find that more often than not you will be rewarded..
fire away..hooves

[PaceAdvantage]

Fire away? What's there to disagree? Other than the fact that you are emphasizing one area while minimizing another, and criticizing others here for doing exactly as you just did.
Or did I also miss the point?

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

ive seen threads on here about betting 2 horses to win ect..wile the pace makes the race :) the flawed thinking of thats all that matters 'be it just one part' in alot of these threads .and in my opinion people who "dont do the work" will not be a winner .tracks change charts are flawed ect..people who have made there own programs is great.but the big picture of the race context/and where each horse fits is of more importance imo

[Tom Barrister]

There are no absolutes in handicapping. Almost everything is important at times and unimportant at other times. The key is to know which things are important for a given race.

[DeanT]

Every software program I have looked at has taken to account the race itself as a major part of its output.

[Greyfox]

If you take into account too many factors, good luck.
For me Pace, and Stamina are first order factors on dirt and polly.
Recency, trainer, jockey, class, and signs of condition are second order factors. Breeding? Might be useful for maidens. Beyond that I figure that it fouls up a lot of handicappers. I don't use "breeding" once a horse has ran a few races.

At some point you have to make a decision.
Is this horse ready to a. set today's pace, b. continue through to the wire
c. able to over come today's pace and win.
With me, first impulse counts and I form it on Pace and Stamina first.
Too much thinking will lead to paralysis by analysis.

[gopony]

I agree with pretty much everybody so far.
With the amount of data that we can obtain, I find that a combination of factors work well also. And with all of the data that is available, I find that it is important to know when to ignore data.
Another aspect is verifying data. I may see a poor time on a horse and would want to return to video to confirm the data. Did the horse get boxed in our was he required to check up during the race.
But there is the aspect, that you can take the numbers and make a profit. You just have to accept, that on some occasions you are going to have bad data. So it just depends on what kind of handicapper you are.
I personally like seeing different opinions on handicapping. This way I can gage whether this should be something I should incorporate. If I do like it, I have to gage whether it is cost effective. Does shuffling through and spending an extra couple of hours watching video's actually change my outlook on the race. And how often does it point me to a winner.
I think one of the biggest changes I've made watching races is how I rate horses pace when he comes in greater than fourth position and first position.

[Overlay]

The reason why racing is such a great game is that there's room for almost any approach to handicapping. Numbers are helpful to me because they let me quantify a horse's chance of winning, not just in regard to traditional figure-oriented categories like speed and pace, but in other major handicapping areas as well. Other people can achieve the same result through visual examination and qualitative judgment, and I say more power to them. I agree that a variety of fundamental factors should be considered, but I think that it's possible to do this with the right mix of a limited number of variables, without getting too far down in the analytical weeds.

[Tom]

You assumption is that if we don't do it your way we are missing the point?
I am far too smart to think I am smart enough to speak for others. I don't see Jonnielu doing regression analysis and I don't see Dave Schwartz doing paddock inspections, I don't see 46 looking at trainer stats, and Richie is using raw times!, yet all four are winners. They all do the work, but the difference is what work they do.

[Robert Fischer]

I know i will be lambasted for for this..i think alot of the threads here are missing the point. nasa type mathmatics and programs are no substitute for taking the horses in context of the race itself..and watching replays ,reading pps drf ,tg ,bris is many times more value to you than pace.basic pace principles should be accounted for but its a minor part of the big picture.condition/breeding/works/trainer intention/jock sw ect all play a major roll in playing the horses..paint the picture with all of these factors and you will find that more often than not you will be rewarded..
fire away..hooves

There can be a gap between the pace guys, the trip handicappers, the physicality guys, the form handicappers... etc.

I think Hooves expresses some valid concerns here.

Can a form/trip handicapper incorporate the pace numbers into his play?

[Tom]

Would he want to?

[cmoore]

The first thing I do is try to figure out who is going to get the lead..It doesn't matter what type of race it is..A horse all alone on the front end is the best bet in racing..So pace is the first thing I look at. If no lone speed runner then all other factors come into play. I bet on maidens mostly and know the sires pretty damn good. That's my biggest advantage over most.

[DanG]

There can be a gap between the pace guys, the trip handicappers, the physicality guys, the form handicappers... etc.

I think Hooves expresses some valid concerns here.

Can a form/trip handicapper incorporate the pace numbers into his play?
Absolutely; (do it every single day) and I’ll never understand how ANY discipline has to be at the exclusion of another.

You “have” to interpret trainer intention / set up a cot in the replay center / use final time ratings or whatever…is just not the case.

The only constant in this game is your bottom line. If you wind up in the black using all or none of the above I say…bless you my son and NEVER apologize for it.

[Greyfox]

Can a form/trip handicapper incorporate the pace numbers into his play?

Why not? Do some experimenting and figure out how much a "stumble" costs a horse in beaten lengths or how "pulling" or "running" between horses costs. Or how much a wide trip costs. I adjust my figs for these type of trip problems every day and the result is quite positive.

[GaryG]

Can a form/trip handicapper incorporate the pace numbers into his play?I have done this for years. I use pace and speed figures for what they are. They tell you how a horse performed at some time in the past. It is up to the handicapper to figure out "how will your horse run today" (apologies to Mr. Scott). There is no need for one successful player to criticize another's approach. If there was only one road everyone would eventually find it and the game would end.

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

i guess i shouldnt have stated it that way..in not out to slight anyones methods
pace is an important part of any handicapping.if any particular method works for you god bless. i just was looking at some of these threads and thought that most did not look at the big picture within the pps..thats all
good luck hooves

[Tom]

Hooves, good topic to talk about. Don't take it as attacking you.
I appreciate thoughts by good handicappers - that would certainly seem to describe you;)

I think we can take this one somewhere.......I'll start.

Grey....adding pace to trips, do you help or hurt your cause? Will you "pace" yourself off a good horse sitting on a big race, or will your trip take you off a pace advantage? D

[Greyfox]

Grey....adding pace to trips, do you help or hurt your cause? Will you "pace" yourself off a good horse sitting on a big race, or will your trip take you off a pace advantage? D

I think that I help my cause.
Many handicappers use the last line as "Gospel."
I don't. But if it has to be the last line, the DRF "trouble comments" are worth noting.
I run the representative line figures through my private computer program "as is."
Then I run the representative figures through again, this second time making adjustments for what might have happened had the horse had a dream trip. For example, a horse "stumbles" from the gate and still runs a decent third or fourth.
What might have that horse done if the start was decent? I give that runner improved Pace and Stamina figures in that "dream hypothetical scenario."
Naturally, I also look for other patterns that suggest that a horse might be able to "pop" a big effort today.
As I'm basically a Pick 3 player, I'm typically not just singling one runner unless I consider it to be a "lock." Usually, I have the obvious Pace Advantage runner (sets or overcomes) along with others that I've identified.
You'll find some surprisingly hidden horses at longer odds using Pace and Stamina adjustments for trouble. If they fire, the Pick 3 prices start to balloon.