Predatory Handicapping Part 2

[karlskorner]

JoeTakach latest article in the Reading Room. I quote a few paragraphs.

"I actually made a "flat bet profit" of about 3 grand on straight "win" wagers. Had I merely refrained from "every one of my exotic wagers" for that 12 month period and not lost 11 grand looking for a huge "score", my year would have been 3k in the black rather than 8K in the red"

"I bet to win only, because I'm personally not good enough to overcome the "exotic mutual take" for exactas, trifectas, pick3s, 4s, 6s, 8s or 9s. In some cases these takeouts approach 30% or more"

"Can I beat a 15% "mutual take" on straight win wagers? Without a doubt !

"Can I beat a 20, 25 or 30% " mutual take" on exoctic wagers ?
Absolutely no !

This from a man who has been earning his "bowl of rice" for 40 years at the track. I personally agree with him, do you ?

[alysheba88]

I do not agree at all. There are many different ways to make money long-term.

If he is so bright why did he place the exotic wagers to begin with if he is profitable betting win only?

Yes the takeout is higher on exotic wagers, but the opportunity for a big score is there too of course. There can be tremendous value in those pools despite the takeout.


Everyone will have their own experience. Thats why record keeping is so important. Apparently its taken the author 40 years to find out whats profitable for him. Should not take others so long.

You also have to have the right approach for your temperment. Can you grind out money on the win end year after year?

[alysheba88]

Players also seem to spend endless time looking for "magic angles". There is no Rosetta Stone in this game. The same goes for betting. There is no one size fits all. An absolute approach that suggest "this way is the only way to make $" is just wrong.

[karlskorner]

He just didn't learn this. Read the article, in fact read both parts 1 & 2. He was making "win" wagers 18 years ago when i knew him. He has been "earning his keep" for a long long time. A man that spends 300 days a year (more or less) "at the track" for 40 years without an "outside income" demands some attention.

[alysheba88]

Sorry I didnt make my post clear. What I meant to say is if win betting has been so good to him, and exactas have not, why is he playing them?

[alysheba88]

I do think if one spends 300 days a year at the track, that win betting would be a larger part of the arsenal than the weekend player. But again that goes back to my "one size fits all" approach. I dont believe in one approach being "the answer" for all players thats all. Have nothing against the author. Have heard many "professionals" say the same. Just think its an apples and oranges comparison. Not sure how many players here are 300 plus a day players every year. Could be wrong.

[karlskorner]

Once again "read" the article, he has not played "exotics" for a long long time, why ? because he can't beat the "takeout". Go back into the archives and you will find numerous complaints by members "" if they ONLY would reduce the "takeout" I could be a winning player "" What Joe is saying ( and you and others can disagree ) is that he has " stayed " in the business of racing horses for all this time by accepting the lowest "takeout" He and I spend 300 (more or less ) days at the track trying to earn a living, the days of "catching lightning in a bottle " through the exotics are long gone by.

[alysheba88]

karl, you posted many quotes. I assumed they were quotes from the author. If thats not the case sorry.

I still disagree with the overall premise. That takeout alone is reason to avoid the exotics.

You asked if people agreed, so I thought you were looking for feedback. Did not know you were only seeking agreement.

[alysheba88]

Not sure what lightning in a bottle refers to either. Unless you are thinking of exotics as only superfectas and trifectas.

Exactas are a very good play at times.

Pick 3's are an exotic. And have lower takeouts (cumulatively) than win betting. Doesnt mean you should always play em.

Pick 6's often have a negative takeout.

[GR1@HTR]

Joe in SO cal has 15% take out on win wagering and 20% takeout in exotics.

Florida has one of the worst takeouts in the nations.
18% on win and 27% in exotics.

[alysheba88]

I read the article. Keep records and know your strenghts is what I take out of it. And I agree with that 100%. Always have.

[karlskorner]

Gulfstream Park (Fla.)

Takeout on

W/P/S 15%.............not 18%
Exactas/DD/P4/P6 20% not........... 27%
Trifectas/Superfectas 25% not..........27%

[andicap]

If you bet offshore and get rebates the takeout in some places can be reduced by an incredible amount. NY it's 14% so 4% rebates (more at some b books if you bet a lot -- on a professional level) makes the takeout pretty sweet.

[GR1@HTR]

Karl,

I shoulda been more clear. I was reffering to the all might Calder:
Win, place, and show: 18%
Daily Double and Exacta: 20%
Pick 4 (Only offered on special event days): 20%
Pick 3: 24%
Trifecta and Superfecta: 27%
Hileah (now closed?) had a 29% takeout on exotics.

[cj]

Originally posted by karlskorner
He just didn't learn this. Read the article, in fact read both parts 1 & 2. He was making "win" wagers 18 years ago when i knew him. He has been "earning his keep" for a long long time. A man that spends 300 days a year (more or less) "at the track" for 40 years without an "outside income" demands some attention.

I'll give the counter view...why does he hawk his picks, reports, etc., if horse racing is so lucrative and he is so good at it? Noone would share info so valuable, it does not make financial sense. Any profits made through sales could be made at the windows. I met him at Philadelphia Park, seemed like a salesman to me.

CJ

[karlskorner]

I will counter-counter your view.

Why does Pace Advantage, American Turf Mag, Charles Carroll (and others) reprint his articles ? Like the Godfather said, you have to show some respect. Check Mate

[alysheba88]

So no one is allowed to question anything he writes? Wish you had pointed that out earlier.

[karlskorner]

I almost forgot your question as to why he is selling his information.

There are a dozen people on this board selling something and the numbers are growing, HTR is selling something, Barry Meadows, Dave Schwartz and a zillion "outsiders" are selling something that will supposedly enhance your handicapping. PA has to set up a special section for the vendors who are trying to sell you something.

If the informatoin is so good, why are they selling it ?

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by karlskorner
I will counter-counter your view.

Why does Pace Advantage, American Turf Mag, Charles Carroll (and others) reprint his articles ? Like the Godfather said, you have to show some respect. Check Mate

Not so fast with the check mate. American Turf reprinting his articles is certainly not a plus to me. That has got to be the worst horse racing stuff I've ever read. And they rerun Ray Talbout like he's alive.(The professional bets 1 units to win and 3 units to place kind of stuff) Have they published anything new and interesting in there for 15 years?

AD

[GR1@HTR]

Originally posted by karlskorner
"Can I beat a 20, 25 or 30% " mutual take" on exoctic wagers ?
Absolutely no !

This from a man who has been earning his "bowl of rice" for 40 years at the track. I personally agree with him, do you ?


If you agree with him, then why would you highly promote the Chinease Double (aka Daily Double). Last I checked, that was an exotic wager.

Check Mate?

[andicap]

CJ,
here's my answer:
Because he obviously feels he is not hurting his prices by his writings, etc., and it brings in additional income.
Who doesn't need more money?? It's not like pros are living on yachts and own airplanes. They grind out a living like you and me . If I ever became a pro (ha, ha), I would probably do the same thing, unless I saw it hurting my prices.

Andy Beyer killed the Golden Goose on speed figures -- even before the DRF started printing the Beyers. But since they were HIS figures, he was able to make money selling them. It was others who were hurt by his going public.

Was he wrong to? It depends on your point of view. I believe he helped bring more new handicappers to the sport, so it was a good thing. Of course, if I was a speed handicapper back then, I'd be royally pissed.

[karlskorner]

If you will take the time , go back and re-read the CD thread, it never was, never is or never will be more than finding"hidden money" in the 2nd 1/2 of the early DD. A single spot play, not an automatic play, as most assumed. I would not consider playing a single horse in the bottom 1/2 of the early DD an exotic play.

Sligg and others have expanded the CD ( now known as the Sicilian Double ) into unknown territory and maybe it includes exotic plays. Unfortunately, as you have many times indicated, it doesn't work in Texas.

[cj]

Karl has many times ripped the so-called established handicapping authorities, I just don't get why he seems to like this one, and not others. What is the difference?

I have nothing against anyone selling things...I have the "Spotting the Ready to Win Racehorse" video from Takach, and I think it is still very good, though I don't go to live racing anymore.

I've seen Karl rip some and not others. He's even ripped some who use the very key race method he sends to others on the board. I have read it, and it is nothing unique that isn't in other handicapping books.

CJ

[NYRAcapper]

Maybe he just likes to share information. There are a helluva lot of winners out there that are more than happy to share methods, opinions, picks, etc. We have guys on this board who I believe could make a living betting horses if they so chose. Yourself and Sufferin Downs come to mind????? You guys have always been more than willing to offer an opinion to anyone who asks. Of course you two dont get paid for it..............YET!!!!!LOL

[Dennis-MW]

is it on PA site somewhere?
D

[karlskorner]

You have to refresh an "elders" memory, could you name 2 so-called (your words) "established handicapping authorities" that I have "ripped". I may have commented on the "one shot" book writers whose works soon find the waste basket because their books were written around 1 subject and filled with many meaningless charts.

I have two 3" binders filled with Joe T's writings for the past 10 years or so, not that I agree with everything he has written, but I believe the man to be "honest" in his approach to handicapping and if need be he could write for another 10 years and not cover all he knows about the business of racing horses.

As to ripping a "key race" author, the only 2 I know of who make a point of "key race horses" are Davidowitz and Beyer and if you are the recipitent of my thoughts on key race horses you will remember I started out by saying I did not "invent" "key race horses" but gave credit to the 2 above mentioned. The only thing I did different was make a homemade chart, for which I have received numerous compliments. In fact I have spent the last 2 "dark days" at GP revising my charts as I have an entirely different approach to 'key race horses" that has been working very well for me.

[cj]

Karl,

As for Takach, like I said, I think much of his work is good, no beef there. I don't mind people selling information, "pick" selling is the one I will never believe.

You haven't questioned authors by name, but you question track variants, speed figures, pace figures, track bias, value, among others. The experienced readers in the bunch know who coined these phrases and have included them in their writings (Quirin, Davidowitz, Beyer, Quinn, Fierro).

I guess its a sore point for me. Many of the above I use and do quite well with. When someone says they don't work, I can only say yes, they do. You knock concepts foreign to you or those you don't use, but I disagree. I am not saying my way is the only way, far from it, but it works. Most of your comments question conventional wisdom, definitely a good thing. I just wanted to know what was different about this guy.


CJ

[karlskorner]

I haven't bought a book since the originals by 4 of the above mentioned ( Fiero is a new one) I will admit I spend time at Barnes & Nobles browsing, same old, same old. I "question" track variants, speed figures, pace figures, track bias and value becasue each author "borrowed " from another. Did Beyer invent speed figures, hardly, read Mike Fiori's book When is the last time anybody saw Bill Quirin at Belmont. Anybody believe he couldn't use some extra cash over his pension from Aldelphi U. Give Jim Quinn a subject and he will have a draft ready to print by Friday.

Every book written , in some form or manner uses track variants, speed figures , pace figures, track bias and value etc.and probably most of the programs incoporate all or some of the above. What I am trying to bring out, is that "everybody" is using them, we even have a listor who adjusts Beyer ( I like that word, adjust) but keeping it a secret as to the manner he adjusts

What I question, is where is the "edge" ?

[cj]

Karl,

All I can tell you, check out the selections I've posted over the last year and half and my performance in the contests we've had. I use all of the things you mention, with the exception of track bias. It works for me, that's all I'm saying. Are there other ways? Of course.

Where is the edge? Applying those things correctly. You can't try to apply concepts without putting in a lot of time and effort. I'm not selling anything, nor will I ever, and I have shared on anything I've been asked about.

CJ

[Lefty]

I think why some winners sell stuff is to make extra money and "sure' money. You may make an overall yrly profit but it doesn;'t "flow" so smoothly as to make a weekly check one can count on.

[Jake]

Takach is well worth reading. He's hard working and approaches racing from a professional point of view. If that allows him to sell some of his own stuff, then more power to him. He's earned the right. If his approach doesn't click with you, don't read him and move on. Some years ago, I was really impressed with the James Quinn's book, Recreational Handicapping, which was very comprehensive. The only problem was that many of his concepts and recommendations didn't test out very well against real race data. That's a fair litmus test as far as I can see.

[dav4463]

I think part of selling or just posting your own picks is an "ego" thing. It's like a night out at the track with the guys. It is fun to pick that big winner and you and your friends are the ones who have it ! Most of us enjoy talking horseracing as much as we enjoy betting on a race. It is fun to dissect a race and put your opinion out there and compare to other opinions and then see who's right.....who gets "bragging rights". Whether or not you get extra money is secondary, it is neat to be recognized as a talented handicapper. Sharing your analysis is part of the game. There are enough people who won't listen to you anyway, so I don't think the prices will be hurt too much. Just don't give anything away when you think you might pull down an entire superfecta pool !

[The Shipper]

I've been reading bits and pieces of this book
for the last 2 weeks. We all know I can't finish
reading the whole book in one sitting.

I find that many of the texts on the market
are repetitious, so I do try to identify topics
of interest that will advance / sharpen my game
at this stage of development.

So I was wondering which of Quinn's concepts
in the book "doesn't hold up" to current race
statistically in 2003? Can you and other students of the game, offer examples? :confused:

[Lefty]

Dennis, don't believe anyone answered your question. Reading room on Frontspiece when you go to PA's site.

[PaceAdvantage]

It's part of the main menu on the home page....

http://www.paceadvantage.com

[karlskorner]

Over on the Netcapper.com site a quote from Steve Fiero's book Four Quarters of Horse Investing

"" Takeout and breakage makes just picking winners not good enough ""

If anyone has the book I would like an explaination, is he talking "value", betting exoctics or just a flat out statement

[GameTheory]

I don't have the book, but I can tell you he's talking value.

He means that you can't make money just by making great selections and betting on them -- you've got to make smart wagers as well -- meaning you've got to take the odds into account and don't always bet on your "top" selection.

The above is just very general statement, and he gets very specific about how to make betting lines, how to keep good records, ways to eliminate money-burning areas of your betting, etc.

Fierro's book is all about value and treating betting like a business.

[cj]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Over on the Netcapper.com site a quote from Steve Fiero's book Four Quarters of Horse Investing

"" Takeout and breakage makes just picking winners not good enough ""

If anyone has the book I would like an explaination, is he talking "value", betting exoctics or just a flat out statement

In his book, he never once mentions betting exotics to the best of my memory.

CJ

[cj]

Jake,

I said I thought most of Takach's stuff was good, I didn't have any problem with him at all.

CJ

[karlskorner]

Game Theory

I assumed "value" was what he was talking about. For someone who doesn't have the book, you sure know alot about it.

I suppose I could continue on "value", but since we kicked it around awhile back, I think I will let it rest

[cj]

Karl,

Value is another thing I use, making my own personal line and determining wagers from it. Are you saying it doesn't work?

CJ

[karlskorner]

Ok CJ I have an hour and a half before I leave for the track, let's talk "value"

Let's use a hypothetical handicpaper. He is not employed, but he still has to earn a living, therefore, he goes to the track because that's where the money is. He has done his homework, printed out the PP's, worked them for 2-3 hours, he plays only one track, because he "knows" that track. He does not play simulcast or over the internet, because he hasn't the foggiest as to what is going on at other tracks, he puts his "daily" bankroll in his pocket and heads out.

There are 9 races for today, somewhere between the 1st and 9th race he is going to "try" to earn his "goal" for the day. As a "value" player he skipped playing the 1st 5 races, because there was no " value". 1st race 4/5, 2nd. 2-1, 3rd 3-1, 4th 5/2 and the 5th race went off at 2/1 ( it happens ). He now has 4 races left to "try" and earn a days pay.

Let's assume he is a "fair" handicapper and finds 2 "value" plays in the next 4 races, he plays, he wins, problem is he is far short of his daily goal, well he'll make it up tomorrow.

Now we reverse it, in the first 5 races, the winners were all "logical" plays to the public and himself, he wins 4 of the 5, he is now ahead and going into the last 4 races. Let's give him the benefit of the doubt and the winner of the 3rd race was a 17/1 shot he pulled out of the hat, should he go home, because he reached his goal and tomorrow is another day, you had better belive it. He plays the same "unit" for each and every race.

We return to the example that he is ahead comfortably by the 5th race but has not reached his goal, he is going into the bottom half of the card with the confidence that he may reach his goal for the day. Had he been a "value" player he is going into the bottom half of the card naked, will he blow it or will he win ?

Time is up, gotta go

[alysheba88]

If someone goes every day they should not be so concerned about short term flucatuations. The idea is to make money and find value. If there is value in the later races bet em

[cj]

Karl,

Pretty long winded non-answer to my question. Are you saying it won't work or not? I say it does for me. I am not saying your way won't work, I have no idea. Doesn't make sense long term to me, but it doesn't have to, I'm not using it.

CJ

[Jake]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Jake,

I said I thought most of Takach's stuff was good, I didn't have any problem with him at all.

CJ


CJ,

You're right, you did say that. I was responding to this earlier quote:


I'll give the counter view...why does he hawk his picks, reports, etc., if horse racing is so lucrative and he is so good at it? Noone would share info so valuable, it does not make financial sense. Any profits made through sales could be made at the windows. I met him at Philadelphia Park, seemed like a salesman to me.

CJ

I actually share some of your skepticism. Mitchell, Quinn, Brohamer, Nunamaker, Beyer, Meadows....all have looked to "hawk" other services or materials. I don't have a problem with that, because I'm willing to test the validity of their information. A real eye-opener several years ago was tracking both Quinn's and Brohamer's daily selections over at Axcis (Trackmaster) for several months. It's a very tough game.

[karlskorner]

Sorry the story was so long. A more direct answer is NO , I do not use "value" ( I am not saying it doesn't work) I think I started before the word "value" was invented

[cj]

For a better description of "value" in action, check out the selections forum under NY Wed, that sums it up.

CJ

[superfecta]

Originally posted by karlskorner
Sorry the story was so long. A more direct answer is NO , I do not use "value" ( I am not saying it doesn't work) I think I started before the word "value" was invented I think you do karl,you just don't call it that.When you pick and choose your races and when it's time to go home before the races are over,that using value to make profits.Otherwise you would play indescriminately,and not leave until the races were over.
As for the article by Takach,most of it is really stating the obvious.As for his assertion that he can't win exotics because the takeout is higher than straight bets is ludicrous.If you don't pick the right combos,it doesn't matter what the take is,you still have a losing ticket.And if you bet more money than you win,thats bad money management,not the fault of takeout.