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Gallop58
12-16-2008, 01:08 PM
Today it happened.... All I'm reading is doom and gloom, national news, racing news, KY recommendations, HANA pleadings, FE this, Tampa Bay Downs that etc., etc. I've been highly pessimistic and down on the game as a going concern, but today for some reason the switched tripped.

Somethings' in the air, some sort of critical mass of opportunity in racing.

Bad times in general, usually helps the gambling game right? I can't put my finger on it, but I get this feeling of opportunity for genuine innovators and true entrepreneurs....(government and the old guard, please don't get in the way!)
Maybe I'm just seeing an all time low and figure it can't possibly get worse.
Maybe I'm hitting the rum cake too early, but just thought I'd throw it out there and see if anyone else feels the same way....

Somethings in the air....[insert horse manure joke here]

KH

2low
12-16-2008, 02:12 PM
Today it happened.... All I'm reading is doom and gloom, national news, racing news, KY recommendations, HANA pleadings, FE this, Tampa Bay Downs that etc., etc. I've been highly pessimistic and down on the game as a going concern, but today for some reason the switched tripped.

Somethings' in the air, some sort of critical mass of opportunity in racing.

Bad times in general, usually helps the gambling game right? I can't put my finger on it, but I get this feeling of opportunity for genuine innovators and true entrepreneurs....(government and the old guard, please don't get in the way!)
Maybe I'm just seeing an all time low and figure it can't possibly get worse.
Maybe I'm hitting the rum cake too early, but just thought I'd throw it out there and see if anyone else feels the same way....

Somethings in the air....[insert horse manure joke here]

KH

I share your optimism, Gallop. Maybe I'm just too new at this to be jaded, or maybe I'm just starting life as a serious handicapper on a hot streak that will go up in a puff of smoke later this week:D

The fact is, there is a whole relatively new world out there that a younger generation is going to eventually find. The world of on-line horse race gambling. A game that can be beat much like poker. A game that does not get tougher as you move your limits up.

We need to overcome ourselves as horseplayers as much as we need to overcome an industry that doesn't seem to understand what it has available to it. I believe that as new players enter the market with fresh ideas and fresh approaches, positive examples of the "can do" spirit will eventually prevail. The "can't win" attitude needs to be pushed to the gutter. I believe this will happen, so long as they are wrong. I believe they are.

This doesn't mean everybody will suddenly become a winner. Most people suck horribly at poker. People simply need to believe it can be done. The math says it can be done. Once the tide turns and we have some somewhat public examples of success, we'll make strides.

Or, maybe I'll be busted in a month and I'll be posting about my hatred for certain jockeys:D

DeanT
12-16-2008, 02:34 PM
I think we might be getting there. I am still optimistic, too.

This is a piece from 2007 - about 1 year ago. I think the writer was maybe one year too early. I think in 2009 we will start to see some of these things take hold.

It is kind of funny; this exact same piece could be written for today. Nothing has changed the last 12 months has it?

I thought, with the turning of the calendar, I would jot down some thoughts for racing in 2008. I'm optimistic. I have entitled it "rock bottom."

Huh? An optimistic piece entitled rock bottom?

Yes.

Flip on an entertainment show and we might see a star du jour speaking of his trials with whatever it may be, and he will say "I had to hit rock bottom before I could change." I think 2008 in racing is the year we will hit rock bottom, change will occur, and the sport will place the wheels in motion to grow again.

When we hit rock bottom in 2008 a few things will occur. Policies will finally be put in place that will encourage growth. These policies will not be piece-meal, nor pay lip service, like we seem to see all too often. They will be real, tough and they will change the sport as we know it.

...Customers will be appreciated. They will be able to bet racing from anywhere in the World at an affordable price. New 5% takeout bets will be the norm, promoted with vigor.

....Horseman's groups and tracks will negotiate new deals. When sitting down across each other at a table, they will both not concern themselves with protecting their dwindling slices and fighting. They will concentrate on one thing and one thing only: growing the sport by increasing handles.

.... A new breed of racetrack executive will be hired. He or she will focus on handles first and foremost. Live handles to be exact. Distribution channels will be turned on their head. The internet will be embraced. Costs will be cut, the game will change from a low volume high margin one with few bettors, to a high volume low margin one with many bettors. Any savings will be passed on to customers to achieve more growth through reinvestment, not put into profits and purses. The sport will change from one who looks for protection as a monopoly, to one who competes, fights, scratches and claws for every betting dollar out there. We will grow into a perfectly competitive business and start growing on our own two feet.

In the end, we will grow. And grow, and grow.

So yes, we will hit rock bottom in 2008. And when we do, we should all do one thing and one thing only: Smile. Smile because we know our sport can grow again.

W2G
12-16-2008, 04:55 PM
Is there a more affordable form of spectator sport than horse racing? Should this global economic downturn be long lasting, we could very well see sports fans begin to look for alternatives to high ticket prices. And the allure of a big payday is always there.

Of course it's comparing apples to oranges, but racing enjoyed a golden era during the depression. Another Seabiscuit coming along wouldn't hurt.

Dave Schwartz
12-16-2008, 06:14 PM
I understand that everyone wants change. The players want/need/demand a lower takeout. The "horsemen" want/need/demand a bigger cut of the pie. The tracks are not making it on the slice they get now.

The reality is:

A) Takes are not going to come down.
B) If anything they are likely to go up.
C) Tracks are going to close.

I think the changes will be a shakeout and, as mentioned in the beginning of this trhead, innovators will succeed while the others will expand along their greed-based agenda until they ultimately fail.

I am not trying to be a doomsayer here. Rather I am trying to be a realist.

...but I get this feeling of opportunity for genuine innovators and true entrepreneurs

I agree with this statement completely. The question is, where are the innovators?

Personally, I view the next 2 years as an opportunity for re-invention... HorseStreet in particular and the industry in general.

I really hope the powerful people of racing get it... that racing is really in trouble and they better start honestly caring about the customer. Normally they think only of their needs.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

karlskorner
12-16-2008, 08:12 PM
If you look at old pictures of Aqu/Bel during the depression of the 30's you can't see the apron for the crowds, it was the only game in-town that everybody could afford to go to and tomorrow will be no different. With unemploymet on the rise in south Florida I have been noticing a much larger crowd on the first floor at CRC during the week, mostly a much younger group than usual, probably most have been laid off from their employment and they are looking for ways to feed their families. I predict during 2009 tracks will be seeing a tremendous increase in their handle if only they can hold on.

magwell
12-16-2008, 08:32 PM
If you look at old pictures of Aqu/Bel during the depression of the 30's you can't see the apron for the crowds, it was the only game in-town that everybody could afford to go to and tomorrow will be no different. With unemploymet on the rise in south Florida I have been noticing a much larger crowd on the first floor at CRC during the week, mostly a much younger group than usual, probably most have been laid off from their employment and they are looking for ways to feed their families. I predict during 2009 tracks will be seeing a tremendous increase in their handle if only they can hold on.Yesterday at calder with half of the first floor closed nobody was there but some regulars and at the paddock where karl says he hangs out observing the horses we could not find him......:rolleyes: