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View Full Version : Cal Poly vs. KY Derby Dirt


michiken
12-15-2008, 11:35 PM
Do you think that the California synthetic track runners will ever be able to deliver a Kentucky Derby Winner on the Churchill dirt?

If I was a trainer and thought I had a legitimate contender, I would be shipping the horse East (Belmont, Aqueduct, Oaklawn, Fairgrounds and maybe Tampa Bay) to see how the horse performs. I would suspect that if he performs well over both surfaces, then I it would be legimate.

If you believe that California can produce a Derby Winner, which of the synthetic surfaces i,e. tapeta, cushion track, polytrack or pro-ride will provide the best chance?

MickJ26
12-16-2008, 09:26 AM
Do you think that the California synthetic track runners will ever be able to deliver a Kentucky Derby Winner on the Churchill dirt?

If I was a trainer and thought I had a legitimate contender, I would be shipping the horse East (Belmont, Aqueduct, Oaklawn, Fairgrounds and maybe Tampa Bay) to see how the horse performs. I would suspect that if he performs well over both surfaces, then I it would be legimate.

If you believe that California can produce a Derby Winner, which of the synthetic surfaces i,e. tapeta, cushion track, polytrack or pro-ride will provide the best chance?


Colonel John won the Travers after running most of his races on synthetics and didn't race all that poorly in the Derby if that's any barometer. Colonel John's trip was compromised, as do most off the pace horses, in the bulky Derby field.

Bobzilla
12-16-2008, 09:50 AM
The Colonel John example might be the best one but another one would be the filly Intangaroo who after distinguishing herself on the SA Cushion/Pro-Ride on 2/2 in the Santa Monica, then ran a very credible third in the Las Flores on 4/6, once again on the then combo of Cushion/ProRide, she was shipped to CD and on Derby day won the Humana Distaff. More often than not, I believe, it will be easier for those who have been competing on an AWS to make the switch to traditional dirt than the other way around. Obviously there will be exceptions at times. It will make part of the handicapping the Derby project a guessing game. As for Colonel John and maybe even Tiago, I believe their preferred surfaces are traditional dirt but have been vastly better than many of their rivals in California that it hasn't mattered and they've been able to compete well on a less preferred surface such as a synthetic variety.

I would agree that in some cases, however, an animal who might have a "preferred surface" of grass might perform well enough in a 3yo graded stakes race on an AWS thus qualifying on earnings for the KY DERBY and then finishing nowhere in Louisville. Probably wouldn't be a bad idea for good and responsible connections to try an animal on the real stuff to give them at least an idea. Seems like most connections just want to be in the race whether or not they belong or not.

Onion Monster
12-16-2008, 11:18 AM
Bobzilla summed it up nicely for me.

I would add that the Cal poly situation could impact Derby fields in regards to pace. Those speedy types that used to dominate the SoCal preps aren't as plentiful. There may be a precocious speedster like Brother Derek in this year's crop but being hindered by the fake dirt (it's really fake turf) he can't rack up the neccessary earnings.

The hard part for us 'cappers will be distinguishing the Colonel Johns from the Adrianos.