Finish margin question.

[gillenr]

Watching HAW's races last Nov. & Dec. & this season, I have a perception of larger finish margins - 3/30 there was only 1 win photo & 1 show photo.
I guess the question is, is this a misperception, or have the finish margins been statistically abnormal?
Thanks

[GameTheory]

I haven't played Hawthorne in a couple of weeks, but I was playing during the "showdown" contest and on several days there was a ridiculous inside speed bias. Any horse that got the lead & the rail was able to hold off any challenge and draw away in the final furlong. Are you seeing this happen in conjunction with lots of wire to wire winners?

[hurrikane]

Avg beaten lengths at fin for 2nd place horse

2003 3.29 (204 races)

winter 2002 2.49 (361 races)

about 3/4 length more....no big deal. Probably just some big wins sticking out in your mind.

[gillenr]

Thanks for your responses.
Game, you're right about the speed bias, but some are coming out-of-the-clouds by big margins.

Hurri, your numbers show how perceptions can be wrong. I would have said it's not as bad this year as last. Not that it matters for 'cappers, but how do those #s compare with other 2nd line tracks?

Thanks

[hurrikane]

I'm heading for the Orleans. If I get time I'll run it for you unless Andi or Joe want too.

What do you mean 2nd line tracks?

[gillenr]

Like MON, FG, CRC; not BEL, SA.
Good luck at Orleans!

[hurrikane]

gottcha gillenr. I call these class 'b' tracks.
I can run it later.

It may have more meaning breaking it down farther..such as, 2 yo, 3yo, mnd, nw1, etc. might give some meaning to the quality of horses coming up...

[gillenr]

I wonder if a rundown of what % winners were "ns", "hd" etc. might be more revealing.