Tampa Tips

[turfbar]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.


T

[DanG]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.
T
Tampa dirt (wet and fast)

Horses shipping in from these dirt surfaces (also; wet and fast) struggled a bit as follows… (2-years of data, courtesy of HDW / HTR)
Trk Wins Sts Win%
CBY 0 28 0%
CT 0 23 0%
FE 1 36 3%
FL 3 77 4%
LRL 3 53 6%
MTH 1 26 4%
TDN 3 73 4%
TOTAL 11 316 3%
For those fans of “regressing to the mean” these should be the ship in tracks for the early double. :D / And of course; it only takes a single sharp outfit to reverse past feeder-track trends. Note: of those tracks MTH did have a high place %; the others did not overall.

[cj]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.


T

Avoid the #1 post position at all distances on dirt. The win at a low rate and the ROI is horrible.

[GaryG]

It looks like Dale Bennett came with a loaded barn from Chicago.

[Tom Barrister]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.


T

Also watch the middle money, the late money on non-favorites, the exacta money, and any other money that you can watch. Tampa has traditionally been one of the best "tote-handicapping" tracks in the country.

[boomman]

Great betting meet with full fields being the norm! Horses that have been campaigning at Hawthorne or Calder tend to do very well, (especially early in the meet), and look for horses that have a work over the track, as the barn area opens one full month before the meet starts.....

Boomer

[DanG]

Apparently it can be done…

If this board is any indication (and I think it is) Tampa has built significant good will during challenging times.

Your move Gulfstream. :rolleyes:

[eqitec]

See this:

http://tbdhpl.ning.com/?xgi=ddle2IV

[Nmytwenties]

Any particular reason that the #1 post on the dirt is bad there, CJ???


Just curious on whether the rail is dead there or just what it was.

[point given]

Beat Ness and get some good value. Leading trainer I believe last season with alot of claimers, he is hi %, but his horses are underlayed now. No big secret.:eek:

[rrbauer]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.


T

The "early money" to me means the VERY FIRST CLICK that reveals ONLY THE MONEY BET AT THE TRACK before the pari-mutuel network money starts coming in. That "information" is on the board for about 1 minute and then it gets diluted by the money coming in from the sites. It's a positive "handicapping factor" but it's not automatic.

[DanG]

The "early money" to me means the VERY FIRST CLICK that reveals ONLY THE MONEY BET AT THE TRACK before the pari-mutuel network money starts coming in. That "information" is on the board for about 1 minute and then it gets diluted by the money coming in from the sites. It's a positive "handicapping factor" but it's not automatic.
I realize people have mentioned this over the years as a positive factor, but to my knowledge that is only anecdotally.

I’ve yet to see a valid study done on it to offer some tangible proof. I realize if Joey Pickles is tracking all the 1st flashes for 10 straight years he is not willing to give up his edge and publish it; but I wonder if a steady record keeper has ever provided some hard copy insight on this.

[rrbauer]

I realize people have mentioned this over the years as a positive factor, but to my knowledge that is only anecdotally.

I’ve yet to see a valid study done on it to offer some tangible proof. I realize if Joey Pickles is tracking all the 1st flashes for 10 straight years he is not willing to give up his edge and publish it; but I wonder if a steady record keeper has ever provided some hard copy insight on this.

I indicated that it's a factor. I have posted in past seasons about situations where the early money at Tampa put me on a horse that won; a horse that I probably wouldn't have used otherwise. Maybe you should try tracking it and prove it one way or the other to your own satisfaction. Then at least two of us will know if there is anything to it.

[raybo]

Any particular reason that the #1 post on the dirt is bad there, CJ???


Just curious on whether the rail is dead there or just what it was.

Not to step on CJ's toes, but I assume that, relating to the speed bias of the track coupled with the public's misuse of this information, early speed horses and the disadvantage for such horses coming out of the #1 hole is the reason for this. The public's perception that early speed wins and their realization that the #1 hole puts the horse on the rail from the start (a perceived advantage for the early speed horse) causes the public to overbet such horses. This overbetting of these horses reduces the final odds and the true "disadvantage" of the #1 hole, for such horses, reduces their win %: smaller odds and smaller win % = smaller ROI.

[rrbauer]

Last year (07-08) winning from the Rail post
6f 10% .91 IV
6.5f 11% 1.05 IV
7f 8% .77 IV

They run a lot of 7f races there and you can see that when you draw the rail, you're taking the worst of it.

[DanG]

I indicated that it's a factor. I have posted in past seasons about situations where the early money at Tampa put me on a horse that won; a horse that I probably wouldn't have used otherwise. Maybe you should try tracking it and prove it one way or the other to your own satisfaction. Then at least two of us will know if there is anything to it.
I was just commenting on its one of the few things I’ve heard can work, but have never seen documented…nothing more.

As far as your sarcastic offer; I’ll leave that edge for you.

[JohnGalt1]

The "early money" to me means the VERY FIRST CLICK that reveals ONLY THE MONEY BET AT THE TRACK before the pari-mutuel network money starts coming in. That "information" is on the board for about 1 minute and then it gets diluted by the money coming in from the sites. It's a positive "handicapping factor" but it's not automatic.

I bet in Minnesota.

Question?

On days where I bet all races (at any track) before the first race and then go home, wouldn't my win bets show up on the board for later races at the first click?

[pktruckdriver]

I can answer that Yes Sir.



Patrick

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

its suffolk south save your money

[rrbauer]

I bet in Minnesota.

Question?

On days where I bet all races (at any track) before the first race and then go home, wouldn't my win bets show up on the board for later races at the first click?

Absolutely NOT. The bets at the HOST track that show on the first click are bets that are made at that track before betting is opened to the PM network. Bets made off site at simulcast locations or ADW's are pooled at the hub used by those locations and are not sent to the host track until betting has been opened at the host track for the race involved. Those off site bets will not hit the host track pools for whatever the network and processing delay is between the hubs and the host site.

[rrbauer]

I was just commenting on its one of the few things I’ve heard can work, but have never seen documented…nothing more.

As far as your sarcastic offer; I’ll leave that edge for you.

Fine. It seems to me that you can either teach or learn at this site. It's not clear to me that you're capable of either.

[DanG]

Fine. It seems to me that you can either teach or learn at this site. It's not clear to me that you're capable of either.
No doubt your right, but I have learned something I suspected from this post.

Thank you.

[JohnnyBatTBD]

This analysis is from my site, thetbdhandicapper.com.

He's got a 32% Win and 62% ITM record over the past two seasons, an absolutely incredible record.

Last year he had starts in about 20% of all the races run at Tampa Bay Downs.

So what's the problem? Generally speaking, unless you are a wizard, you can't make money betting Ness.

Here are the numbers (and this is based on the first hundred races that Ness had a starter last season, and representing half his starts at Tampa and a more than adequate sampling):

While he had 39 winners out of the first 100 races (39%), if you bet him to win you lost $2.80 (his average win payoff was $5.06).

While he was in the money in 51 of the first 100 races (51%), if you bet him across the board you lost $55.00.

But here's the best one of all. While he was a part of 49 of the first 100 exactas he had a starter in last year, if you boxed him in the exacta with two other horses (a $12 wager) in those first 100 races and you had it right every time, you collected 49% of your wagers, but lost $12.00. (Now I've excluded eight winning exacta combinations that involved Ness and winners or placers that were >20-1, but let's face it, most of us mortal men wouldn't have had them anyway).

Ladies and gentlemen, the old cliche, "if you can't beat'em, join 'em" does not work with Jamie Ness.

The axiom should be "If you can't hook up Ness with a longshot in the exacta, pass the race!"

Attached see the Trainer Profile I've done for Jamie Ness.

Good luck and good racing!

Johnny B.

[DarnThatAlarm]

I have had quite a bit of success here with MSW dropping into Maiden Claiming no matter what the PPs look like. As a matter of fact, it seems the worst the better. Hit a few exactas close to $1,000 on this angle here last year.

[JustRalph]

aren't we making assumptions that Ness will be just as good? Only time will tell I guess...............

[rispa]

aren't we making assumptions that Ness will be just as good? Only time will tell I guess...............

I agree JustRalph. All that info is from last year. How Ness will fare at this year's meet is anyone's guess!

[sammy the sage]

Did Fla. pass ANY ''ROIDS"" legislation w/any teeth to it???

g/jeez :bang:

you'd have your answer! :faint:

[sammy the sage]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52484&highlight=teeth

[BeatTheChalk]

Finally Tampa opens, have really come to like this meet, Jo ann Jones advises to watch the early money here, anybody else have some decent advice.


T

Started watching the board today ( Weds ) All I can say is that...there
is a LOT of movement .. lots of action. The last race of the day was the
best. 12 in the morning line - bet down to 6 to 1 Go to the window :jump:

[pktruckdriver]

JustRalph



Please , Please change that Picture, as I can not concentrate, Sorry. :)


patrick

[hracingplyr]

i was at Tampa yesterday and asked a trainer i know about the steroid rule and this trainer told me and i quote. "Yes and no, they are testing, but if caught they will get a slap on the wrist."


Bob

[Tampa Russ]

i was at Tampa yesterday and asked a trainer i know about the steroid rule and this trainer told me and i quote. "Yes and no, they are testing, but if caught they will get a slap on the wrist."


Bob

The way I understand the rule is that it goes into effect December 30th. There will be a 90 day period beginning on that date to allow the legal steroids to clear the system of any treated animal. Warnings will be given during the 90 day period, no penalties. After 90 days, different story. Seems fair to me.

[rrbauer]

The way I understand the rule is that it goes into effect December 30th. There will be a 90 day period beginning on that date to allow the legal steroids to clear the system of any treated animal. Warnings will be given during the 90 day period, no penalties. After 90 days, different story. Seems fair to me.

Uh, what provisions have been made to disclose to the betting public which horses are/have been getting steriods, which steriods and when they
stopped receiving them?

Uh, "None", you say?

Uh, Fair?

[Tampa Russ]

Uh, what provisions have been made to disclose to the betting public which horses are/have been getting steriods, which steriods and when they
stopped receiving them?

Uh, "None", you say?

Uh, Fair?

I look at it this way. They are legal right now. The horsemen got the 90 day transition period ok'd. My pre-meet research tells me that most of them decided to go ahead and get the steriod hangover out of the way prior to the meet, or at least have their horses on the way to recovery. Bottom line to me is that steriods will be banned. I can live with 90 days during the transition.