coming back off layoff ?

[exactaplayer]

Generally I dismiss any horse that has not raced in 2 months. That is I don't consider the horse a contender to win today's race. This has worked nicely for me at some of the tracks just starting their meet. I end up with only one or two horses that have raced in the last month and get some nice payoffs.
Tampa is starting today and in the first race I like the 7 horse (Caiman) but see that this 7 year old has not raced since august. This leaves me with #2 (King Glacken) not really impressed with the replay of this ones last race.
Any comments on recency ? or this race in particular ?

[Overlay]

I wouldn't automatically dismiss the chances of the horse coming back from the layoff, but it would have the effect of requiring higher odds to be worth a bet. Has the horse won after a similar break in the past? Also, however your analysis comes out, remember that you always have the option of passing the race if there are too many unanswered questions that you can't resolve to your satisfaction.

[fiveouttasix]

I like the chances of #10 Tori Light... good W.O. 5 days ago, Drops to level of Claim & has good record at Track & Distance. 8-1 M/L , I will take @ 5-1 or higher.

[DanG]

Generally I dismiss any horse that has not raced in 2 months.
Any comments on recency ?
Ken Massa (HTR) has written a very interesting newsletter on layoffs if you’re interested.

[pg-8] http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

[exactaplayer]

I like the chances of #10 Tori Light... good W.O. 5 days ago, Drops to level of Claim & has good record at Track & Distance. 8-1 M/L , I will take @ 5-1 or higher.
Very interesting. When I eliminated horses for layoffs or poor replays I came up with the 10 horse. This came as a bit of a stretch for me so I decided to pass the race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Im an exacta player too.And I tell you I hate these type of restricted races.Non-winners of 2 in 6 months.Just from experience I have noticed that 1 of 2 things happen=the favorite wins easy=or some obscure horse that makes no sense does.Neither angle is long term profitable.These restricted races are so prevalent in Ohio that I would have alternate profiles of winners.I'd have a regular winner profile(usually a multiple winner going through the motions) and I'd make a "Deficient Form Profile" for horses that made no sense.With these restricted races it might seem like common sense but if a trainer has a decent layoff record and the horse is dropping from a better class and circuit with no works,it's a likely winner.From my research one-third of the winners of these races show a circuit-switch/class-drop/trainer pattern with the horses showing no form as far as workouts or recency are concerned.

I can't stand them(n2y) unless I have a golden insight.Barbie McBride was always a good layoff trainer in routes at River Downs.The horse has a 5f work and is turning back but the running style seems short for even a 1 turn 7 furlong sprint.And there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of pace to set up in front of him.

[lamboguy]

cincy that is always tough to figure, because it is such a big drop form open into date races. when the horse comes back and is eligible because he just hasn't run its real tough to eliminate. but alot of times the hosre that comes back isn't the same horse as when he left. it would only revert back to how he is training. and that you don't know from a racing form. the point i am trying to make is he could either be the greatest bet of all time or the worst.

[JohnGalt1]

I used to have trouble with horses off long lay offs.

Besides workouts, trainer stats and using pace lines of returning races I now use Sire Stats and look up first time starter ratings.

I always review the races that I've played to see why my picks won or lost. When a horse after a long lay off won (because I usually threw them out), I wondered was there a better way to include some of them, at least in serial bets.

I thought if looking up the breeding for first time starter is important, isn't a horse off a 6 month lay off similar? And I know a 5 year old with 23 races is not a first time starter.

I looked up the breeding on all long lay off winners and was surprised to see how many A+, A, and B's there were.

I do not use this as a primary factor, but just another part of solving the puzzle.

[nobeyerspls]

Generally I dismiss any horse that has not raced in 2 months. That is I don't consider the horse a contender to win today's race. This has worked nicely for me at some of the tracks just starting their meet. I end up with only one or two horses that have raced in the last month and get some nice payoffs.
Tampa is starting today and in the first race I like the 7 horse (Caiman) but see that this 7 year old has not raced since august. This leaves me with #2 (King Glacken) not really impressed with the replay of this ones last race.
Any comments on recency ? or this race in particular ?

The angle is both gender and trainer specific. The four word mantra is "fresh fillies/cold colts". In brief, the boys need a race and the girls don't. I have done quite well with freshened fillies over the years but there are a few rules. It helps if the pp's show similar success in the past. Also, solid works help as does the class issue. A filly breaks her maiden in NY at the $20k level, runs a few terrible races (zero beyers), gets a few months off and shows up at FG in a $10k nw2l. Wires the field at 85-1. Sprints are better than routes and it doesn't work that well with turf races.
As to the boys, the offspring of Meadowlake and Favorite Trick run well cold. Beyond that it is a trainer issue, as some excel at it. If you have a print copy of the Form you can go back and look for that line that denotes time off. You should see some positive results for fillies and mares, even for some off longer than two months. This angle tends to underperform at Tampa and I think that the reason is B level trainers.

[so.cal.fan]

I can only speak about Southern California.
Trainers can't use Clenbuterol on race days, but they can and do train on it, and Clenbuterol is advantage in getting horses ready for races after layoffs.
Check your trainer stats in the DRF......x#of days away. Go with the barns that can bring them back fresh.
They do better on the turf........no matter the distance, especially 6 1/2 on the downhill SA turf course.
On the synthetic, it's a bit more of a handicap, but there again, Clenbuterol is a big helper. I've seen many horses come back going long and win off long layoffs.
I judge the work patterns.....if you see a good one.....don't let a layoff scare you off. You'll throw out too many winners.
Again, I'm only talking about So. Cal. I do not handicap nor do I know anything about any other area of the country.

[sandpit]

All good, solid ideas here. One of the great bet against for me over time is a top-class stake horse coming back in a sprint race when he/she is really a router. Usually this is the trainer shouting "I'm giving my horse a race".

A good recent example was at Hollywood over Thanksgiving weekend. El Gato Malo showed up in an optional $100K sprint against several others, including Gayego, who had his return race on BC weekend. The bettors pounded El Gato early and often and Gayego goes on to break the track record. A few days after the race, El Gato's trainer Craig Dollase basically said he was prepping for longer races.

I remember Silver Charm doing the same thing in the seven furlong Malibu, some Argentine horse trained by Mike Puype upset him.

[Robert Fischer]

layoffs are such a broad topic. I don't think you want to marry yourself to any hard&fast rules

first concerns

1. was there a MAJOR injury?

2. and the Trainer

after you answer those 2 questions most of the time you have an opinion about the horse on a layoff.

[Nmytwenties]

Many good thought on this topic so far.

Not sure if I would consider 2 months as a long layoff, a long layoff wouldn't start until about 3 months without a race for me.

I am very cautious on betting races with a majority of the field not having run since the layoff. This happens alot with circuits like Finger Lakes in the spring where many of the runners all lay up over the winter time.

Class means alot too, I won't rank a class runner off a layoff under one with less class but recent good form at a level somewhere near the class runner, they rank as dead even and a no-bet.

I very rarely bet a horse going a mile or longer off a layoff and often bet against them and this works for me well. Even when I lose it doesn't bother me that much because more often than not route runners just don't have it the first time off a layoff, same way with most firsters going long.

If you can look back on the past performances and see good runs off layoffs that can factor in to. Usually means I will lay off the race if several horses in a race coming off a layoff have run well in the past off a layoff. That might be a good angle to bet against though for some, banking on the horse not being able to duplicate the perfomance of the bench again.

Trainers mean alot but one thing I like to look at is what jockey a good trainer is putting on a horse off the layoff. If he is going with a jockey that he usually doesn't go with and/or isn't very good that would lead me to believe that the trainer thinks the horse will need a race. Then again top jockeys take mounts on good horses sometimes even when they know they need a race just to stay loyal to the trainer and/or to secure the mount for the next race. I would look to see if the jockey is taking off another good competitor in the race, if he is, then this might be a sign the layoff horse is ready to run first time.

As some have noted on here, I think it is foolish to set up rules that apply for all instances as you have to take it race by race as all are different. Rules that apply 90% of the time yes, 100% of the time ,no.

[salty]

That first race at gulfstream today was pretty strange. #5 Brook's Valentine. This horse has not raced in 601 days. Almost two full years without a race since it ran an ok maiden race. ML odds were of course a reasonable 5/2. I think it was bet down to 5/8 but i cant remember because right at the gate my 9's odds dropped to 5/8 so i could be wrong. But this really surprised me. How could a horse that hasn't raced in that long ever come back and win its first race ever? This is a perfect example of why watching for long layoffs pays off.

-salty

[BUD]

I found in my short time I am Lousy after coming back from a layoff---Even as short as 4 days away from the game---


Sorry bad attempt at humor:confused: --But its true!!

[hracingplyr]

topic guys. I was talking to a trainer that i sit with at Tampa Bay Downs on this very topic about layoffs. This trainer said they have to treat each horse as individuals, some horses thrive on rest, some like to come back quick.What i have done and still do today is if a horse is coming off a lay off of more than 30 days got thru there pp's and see how they have done off rest in the past. I think Michael Pizzola has talked about this before?

Bob