"THE EDGE"...DO YOU HAVE IT?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Do you wager with an edge? I would guess to say that the majority of gamblers do not wager with an edge and most are not sure what their edge is. The edge is the single most important factor for long-term success.

The edge comes from hard work analysis of your play and how the other gamblers see the game. The tough players will sit and wait for their edge spots and some can wait for long periods when their records indicate that a percentage advantage situation is present and then they strike and strike hard with their wager...they win or lose with it and wait for the next edge spot which could be the next day or the next week or three spots the following day.

We all know of tough players who have found their edges and are able to wager with some frequency with their edge. Others sit and wait for their infrequent edge spots.

The edge spots are constantly changing according to the ever changing racing variabilities...numbers,shoes, stickers etc. have come along and the sharpest players have taken advantage and made significant profits until the public play catches up and the value disappears. It's the constant cycle.

I believe the key is to stay with value as the ultimate starting point and then refine the value bets in your records to identify the strengths and weaknesses of your play in order to find the specialties...the higher percentage expectation wagers within your portfolio of bets.

It's work but it will begin to pay off as it has for a number of real astute members of this forum who have found their edge and use it on a daily basis for profit.

Best of luck to all and a wonderful hoilday season

Zappi

[Overlay]

The edge spots are constantly changing according to the ever changing racing variabilities...numbers,shoes, stickers etc. have come along and the sharpest players have taken advantage and made significant profits until the public play catches up and the value disappears. It's the constant cycle.

I believe the key is to stay with value as the ultimate starting point and then refine the value bets in your records to identify the strengths and weaknesses of your play in order to find the specialties...the higher percentage expectation wagers within your portfolio of bets.

Undoubtedly, any handicapper will find that some categories of races will be more profitable than others. But I think that the need to keep shifting your handicapping focus to retain your edge can be minimized by starting with a blend of multiple fundamental factors, along with an orientation of employing them to determine each horse's chance of winning.

The use of multiple factors guards against the need to keep "re-inventing the wheel" if individual elements are overbet. And determining the winning chances of each horse in a race through the probabilities associated with the factors provides alternative wagering possibilities if the odds on any particular horse fall below fair value.

Granted, this may not have all the advantages of a more nuanced approach that is constantly monitoring the flow of individual factors, and changing them with relative frequency, but I think that it works well enough, especially considering the value of the handicapper's time.

[Nmytwenties]

I just couldn't see participating in this sport with the number one emphasis being on making money. Not to say people who are are in any way weird, I am more in the weird category as I see the sport as a great hobby and put very little thought into running away with bags of money. And you know what, I come away breaking even or better about 90% of the time, so it works for me. I keep statistics for percentage and money but it really isn't about seeing how much I can count on making or anything, just to see how I ended up at the end of the day.

That might be something some bettors might look into when they are going badly at the track. With all of the other things you have to think about just to look at a single race, having a gnawing concern about making big money can just be a harmful distraction. It's probably just me in this boat, but I just wouldn't see any fun in this sport if I focused solely on money alone.
I guess I know I have my "edge" when i go back through the entire card of a track I just anaylized and feel really confident with my picks. It sure held true last week as I felt real good about all my selections at 4 of the 6 tracks I looked at and I came up on the plus side on those 4 tracks and minus on the other two.

More important than anything else to recognize clearly is when one is losing more money than they can afford. I think many bettors, probably few on this board, have a problem when it comes to stopping before they lose their butts.

Hopefully my comments won't take away from the conversation when it comes to those high stakes, high dollar bettors, your more important to the sport than I that is for sure.