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bigmack
12-10-2008, 05:49 PM
Thought perhaps we could use this thread to explore track bias and how to spot it. If you have examples post 'em and I'll try to post the vid. Hopefully, we can keep it ego-free.

To start, I took note of NKling's recent article on the Inner Track bias @ AQU.
http://www.troyrecord.com/articles/2008/12/09/sports/horseracing/doc493e018135f17942416597.txt

He writes; I though SEASONS WISE had a legitimate chance to upset race seven on Wednesday despite her 30-1 odds. The filly had one of the worst trips you can endure on the inner track. She was hung out three-wide dueling for the lead. When the front-running threesome turned for home, Seasons Wise was just a half-length from the lead. Predictably, she tired from there.

Here's the tape. Is this really one of the worst trips you can endure on the inner track?

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classhandicapper
12-10-2008, 06:10 PM
There is some debate among handicappers about whether 12/3 was actually biased and whether it was biased towards speed, the rail, or both. I think it was midly biased, but not strong enough to dictate results.

However, IMO there is no doubt that being the 3 wide dueler in a fast paced race (like this) is a really tough trip on almost any track that isn't kind to the outside paths. So under any circumstances, IMO Seasons Wide had a very rough trip that may have been even rougher than it looks if the track was actually favoring the inside paths a bit.

the little guy
12-10-2008, 06:13 PM
I like Nick Kling.....but he's looking for a bias that doesn't exist. Season's Wise may not have had a great trip, but she's a turf sprinter ( if anything ), and could only win a race on the inner if she was absolute lone speed on a heavily biased surface.

Honestly, I hope the public keeps betting the inner like it's biased, as long as it stays fair, as they will only help those of us who are paying attention. However, I'm certainly doing my part to try to convince people that the track is fair.

GaryG
12-10-2008, 06:20 PM
To digress just a small bit.... Disregarding bias, this is a favorite angle of mine. If a horse duels through a fast and pressured pace while 3-wide and remains in contention all the way it is an excellent effort and deserves extra credit.

bigmack
12-10-2008, 06:29 PM
I like Nick Kling.....but he's looking for a bias that doesn't exist. Season's Wise may not have had a great trip, but she's a turf sprinter ( if anything ), and could only win a race on the inner if she was absolute lone speed on a heavily biased surface.
As you maintain a current posture of a 'slight bias, if any' on the inner, are you factoring any bias into your h'capping AQU or the normal pre-existing bias that has always been?

the little guy
12-10-2008, 07:00 PM
I don't really. I always try to imagine how any race is going to be run, and sort contenders from there. You could say there is an inherent advantage to inside speed in two turn races on the inner, so obviously if I find a legitimate inside speed in those races I may move up its chances, but that's sort of true on any even racetrack. However, without a real bias, I don't try to make horses win that are too slow just because they may have a slight tactical advantage unless the odds are way more than fair.

Basically, I just try to handicap. I love a true track bias.....but I don't look for ones that aren't there. I think too many people do this. It's an easy way out.....and it's ultimately very expensive.

Tom
12-10-2008, 07:44 PM
Great idea for a thread, Mac......my personal opinion is I always assume no bias at all, unless I see indisputable evidence to the contrary. Same as I handle track variants.

classhandicapper
12-10-2008, 08:11 PM
I like Nick Kling.....but he's looking for a bias that doesn't exist. Season's Wise may not have had a great trip, but she's a turf sprinter ( if anything ), and could only win a race on the inner if she was absolute lone speed on a heavily biased surface.

Honestly, I hope the public keeps betting the inner like it's biased, as long as it stays fair, as they will only help those of us who are paying attention. However, I'm certainly doing my part to try to convince people that the track is fair.

I watch your show every day because I enjoy your analysis and you occasionally highlight something about a horse I don't know. (thanks by the way)

I've been with you on this bias issue virtually every day, but I think 12/3 IS somewhat debateable. Sometimes, just because almost all the winners are logical, that does not mean the track wasn't favoring certain paths anyway. The overall race developments just looked a bit biased towards the inside paths to me. It wasn't strong enough to eliminate superior horses moving on the outside, but between two logical contenders of similar ability and the same price, I would have taken the inside horse that day and been pretty comfortable I had the best of it.

the little guy
12-10-2008, 08:17 PM
The problem is that in the race being discussed, a horse closed wide from well back and lost a brutal head bob. Hardly a defense of a rail bias.

However, I don't completely disagree with you, and might say the track was a little kind to inside paths. But, not enough to significantly elevate inferior horses.

slewis
12-10-2008, 08:47 PM
I like Nick Kling.....but he's looking for a bias that doesn't exist. Season's Wise may not have had a great trip, but she's a turf sprinter ( if anything ), and could only win a race on the inner if she was absolute lone speed on a heavily biased surface.

Honestly, I hope the public keeps betting the inner like it's biased, as long as it stays fair, as they will only help those of us who are paying attention. However, I'm certainly doing my part to try to convince people that the track is fair.

I like Nick Kling as much as I like you... and regarding Seasons Wise, your both wrong.

a) There was no bias on the day in question..

b) Seasons Wise ran her best races on the dirt ...(11/13, 9/11 were best of her career and equal figure wise), but 4 lengths slower then the winner of this race.

I thought this group was slightly faster then the par for this time of year, yet Seasons Wise has shown good pace in her better races and might get through this condition if she gets catches the right post and group.

bigmack
12-10-2008, 09:04 PM
Tripwise, tough to argue with Kling about the injudicious ride of trn/jock Clyde Martin. Fancy Runner was certainly ripe for a nice run but the trip doomed her. Darn shame, she deserved to win.

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the little guy
12-10-2008, 09:09 PM
The Clyde Martin ride was one of the worst I have ever seen.

JustRalph
12-11-2008, 12:41 AM
The Clyde Martin ride was one of the worst I have ever seen.

What you got a problem with Clyde running his horse 2+ miles in a 1.5 mile race? :lol: :lol:

I can't believe they finished that close.......... :bang:

jonnielu
12-11-2008, 06:12 AM
I like Nick Kling.....but he's looking for a bias that doesn't exist. Season's Wise may not have had a great trip, but she's a turf sprinter ( if anything ), and could only win a race on the inner if she was absolute lone speed on a heavily biased surface.

Honestly, I hope the public keeps betting the inner like it's biased, as long as it stays fair, as they will only help those of us who are paying attention. However, I'm certainly doing my part to try to convince people that the track is fair.

Sound information.

jdl

098poi
12-11-2008, 06:19 AM
I don't really. I always try to imagine how any race is going to be run, and sort contenders from there. You could say there is an inherent advantage to inside speed in two turn races on the inner, so obviously if I find a legitimate inside speed in those races I may move up its chances, but that's sort of true on any even racetrack. However, without a real bias, I don't try to make horses win that are too slow just because they may have a slight tactical advantage unless the odds are way more than fair.

Basically, I just try to handicap. I love a true track bias.....but I don't look for ones that aren't there. I think too many people do this. It's an easy way out.....and it's ultimately very expensive.


Great point! I (and others) sometimes look for things that aren't there, bias, bad trip, trainer intention etc.. Sometimes you can look too deep and find mud instead of gold.