Postulating about speed horses and ?

[BIG49010]

Everybody talks about top figure or speed horse that used to pay 8-1 and now they are 3/2?

My question is what used to pay 3/2 and now pays 8-1 when it wins?

[rokitman]

A group of 4 hooved horses that win about 9% of the time :ThmbUp:

[proximity]

Everybody talks about top figure or speed horse that used to pay 8-1 and now they are 3/2?


in his book my $50,000 year at the races, andy beyer played the year of 1977 looking for trainer pattern, track bias, and speed figure advantages.

and despite the fact that his figures were not yet published in the drf, this book was littered with $6.00 horses.........

[Tom Barrister]

Everybody talks about top figure or speed horse that used to pay 8-1 and now they are 3/2?

My question is what used to pay 3/2 and now pays 8-1 when it wins?

Nothing does. The top figure horses were great overlays when they were 8-1. Now data available to the public results in underlays.

[jonnielu]

in his book my $50,000 year at the races, andy beyer played the year of 1977 looking for trainer pattern, track bias, and speed figure advantages.

and despite the fact that his figures were not yet published in the drf, this book was littered with $6.00 horses.........

Quite the keen observation..... it also seemed to me that most of the $50,000 resulted from stable knowledge more then converting time to a number and assuming variance.

jdl

[SMOO]

Andy Beyer didn't invent the speed figure, the speed figure invented Andy Beyer.

[George Sands]

Quite the keen observation..... it also seemed to me that most of the $50,000 resulted from stable knowledge more then converting time to a number and assuming variance.jdl

No.

Beyer on Page 151:

"...in 1977 I learned that the most profitable use of figures comes when a horse is shipped from one track to another. I amassed nearly half my total winnings on Carolina Horn (shipped from Charles Town to Pimlico), Just John (Atlantic City to Monmouth), Talc (Aqueduct to Pimlico), and L'Alezane (Woodbine to Saratoga)...The track bias at Pimlico accounted for almost all the rest of my profits."

[the little guy]

If Lakeville Miss hadn't been compromised by the bias, and her trip, and L'Alezane dramatically helped by those situations, that Schylerville would have had a very different result.

[George Sands]

Typical NY provincialism.;)

[the little guy]

I bet Lakeville Miss that day. Beyer mocked me before the race. Seriously.

He cashed....but he knew which horse ran the better race.

[George Sands]

He cashed....but he knew which horse ran the better race.

He admitted as much in his book.

[BIG49010]

The only overlays on figures I see anymore, are true to the Beyer claims.

In NY when a horse ships in from DEL, PHA, or MTH and they have what appears to be a fig advantage, people still hesitate to play them. Dutrow is a master at finding horses that fit a race and shipping them in.

[the little guy]

He admitted as much in his book.


It's a great book. I obviously need to read it again.

[jonnielu]

No.

Beyer on Page 151:

"...in 1977 I learned that the most profitable use of figures comes when a horse is shipped from one track to another. I amassed nearly half my total winnings on Carolina Horn (shipped from Charles Town to Pimlico), Just John (Atlantic City to Monmouth), Talc (Aqueduct to Pimlico), and L'Alezane (Woodbine to Saratoga)...The track bias at Pimlico accounted for almost all the rest of my profits."

I suppose that the horses jogged down the turnpike on their own. How much is nearly half? Did that become most with the new math?

jdl

[George Sands]

I suppose that the horses jogged down the turnpike on their own. How much is nearly half? Did that become most with the new math?jdl

Right, if you cash a bet on a shipper, it means you cashed based on "stable knowledge," because if the stable did not have the knowledge to enter the race, you would not have been able to bet on him, and thus you could not have used your speed figures to cash a bet.

As for the "new math," add the figure profits to the bias profits and see how much is left for your theory.

[George Sands]

It's a great book. I obviously need to read it again.

Indeed it is. But I'm looking to borrow Jonnielu's copy, which apparently contains all sorts of new material, including, I suspect, a chapter on Beyer's background as a sumo wrestler.