NBER's track record and past recessions

[Valuist]

The whole country knew we were in one yet it took NBER a full year to admit, yes we are in a recession. Just how late to the party? This is courtesy of The Complete Investor.

NBER announced Dec 2007 peak on 12/1/08
The Nov 2001 trough was announced on 7/17/03
The March 2001 peak was announced on 11/26/01
The March 1991 trough was announced on 12/22/92
The July 1990 peak was anoounced on 4/25/91
The Nov 1982 trough was announced on 7/8/83
The July 1981 peak was announced on 1/6/82
The July 1980 trough was announced on 7/8/81

Needless to say, they are late to the party. In fact, they could very well be a contrarian indicator, based on their past history.

[OTM Al]

Its not a matter of being late. This is how the NBER works. Data takes that long to be able to be accurately collected and analyzed. They are marking recessions for more of a historical purpose and for future study. Had you asked their opinion as individuals, most would have said that a recession was probably on for some time now, but they wouldn't say it officially until the facts are in.

[Tom]

What are they using to get the data....pony express and quill pens?!

[OTM Al]

First off, the amount of data is massive. Secondly, they wait until the noise has cleaned itelf out of the numbers, which takes some time. They report these things as historic fact. they are not in the business of saying what is going on right now nor what will happen in the future. Here are some FAQs from their web page that may help you to understand what they do

http://wwwdev.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html