Dealing with anamolies in turf races

[lansdale]

Most of my play is on the grass, a surface that some handicappers avoid for reasons which also causes me problems at times - the presence of horses without grass experience, without an American record, or without a record at the distance. I'd add a category not limited to turf races - developing 3yos whose past records aren't always indicative of future performance.

Over the past weekend, after getting nailed by members of all the above categories, I would appreciate knowing how others deal with this problem.

Also, if any database guys are reading this, since these 'turf outsiders' seem to win more than their fair share of these races, I'd be curious to know if there was any positive ROI attached to their presence.

Thanks for any help.

Cheers,

lansdale

[robert99]

lansdale,

You may wish to look more deeply into the trainer and breeding aspects.

[slewis]

Most of my play is on the grass, a surface that some handicappers avoid for reasons which also causes me problems at times - the presence of horses without grass experience, without an American record, or without a record at the distance. I'd add a category not limited to turf races - developing 3yos whose past records aren't always indicative of future performance.

Over the past weekend, after getting nailed by members of all the above categories, I would appreciate knowing how others deal with this problem.

Also, if any database guys are reading this, since these 'turf outsiders' seem to win more than their fair share of these races, I'd be curious to know if there was any positive ROI attached to their presence.

Thanks for any help.

Cheers,

lansdale

If I can give you one bit of advice regarding turf it's this:

Horses of ANY pedigree can succeed at short distances on the turf.
Looking for turf pedigrees (or worse, eliminating horses without any) in 5F, 6F even 7F races is highly inconsistant.
In other words, any horse can win a turf sprint. When you stretch out to a Mile and greater (especially longer) pedigree is KEY.

[cj's dad]

One of my favorite angles ever on the turf is a maiden switching from dirt to turf for the 1st time, with the following characteristics:

Speed and fade in a sprint race
going a mile or longer for the 1st time
distance pedigree, turf or dirt
little or no other early speed in the race
rail moved out
No in the money finishes
decent gate jockey today

If I can meet 4 or more of the criteria as listed and the odds are double digit, it's a play.

[JustRalph]

If I can give you one bit of advice regarding turf it's this:

Horses of ANY pedigree can succeed at short distances on the turf.

Some of my biggest scores, 5.5 or less on the turf for the first time..............and I pay no attention to the Breeding in these cases. :ThmbUp:

[cmoore]

I've seen horses wake up on the turf while not showing much at all on the dirt..In those instances, it's all about the pedrigree..

[HUSKER55]

I prefer dirt but occassionally I do turf races. FOR ME, I have found that betting the jockey and trainer stats, does better. Sometimes a trainer has good stats and the public overlooks them. Produces good results.

husker55
:)

[Nmytwenties]

It depends on what particular turf circuit your talking about as well.


I would be a bit more able to throw out a horse who has never tried turf when running in So Cal,NYRA,Kentucky, other circuits who have a credible population of proven grass horses on the grounds. The new turf runner has to beat accomplished runners on the surface. Honestly though I usually lay off those turf races with more than one horse who has run well on dirt and never ran on turf. I find that as an elimination oriented better that these races are often the toughest to eliminate runners,too many variables, and that's why I will pass on betting a majority of turf races I handicap. But I see the allure, you usually get better odds in these races.

On turf circuits like Turf Paridise,Mountaineer,some Calder races,Indiana Downs,and a few others usually more than half of the field has done most of their running on the dirt so it can be kind of a crapshoot really, who will run better first time than the others. Pinnacle, the new track in Michigan, will have a turf course next year and those cards will be filled with horses who have never touched the surface,good luck on trying to cash tickets consistently on those races..lol

Personally a horse who is a proven runner on the dirt has to show me at least once that he is not the same on the turf for me to doubt his chances to compete.

[Robert Fischer]

when dealing with turf anomalies-

first I look for major positive or negative factors concerning breeding, trainer etc...

the race is 9 furlongs turf, He's never been on turf but he is a danehill out of a foreign mare and Christophe Clement has got ramon dominguez riding him
- obviously there is a big chance that he is a hell of a turf horse!


so you look for the obvious positive or negative things first. You turned an unknown into a known.


Then, once you have those out of the way, any anomaly horses you have left are basically an "Unknown" quantity.

"what u don't know CAN hurt you"-
With an unknown you include it if you the value is right or if you can't afford to include the unknown in your wagering you usually pass the race. Rarely is smart to toss an unknown but there are some scenarios.

[o_crunk]

I find Tomlinson figures, when used together at both distance and turf beyond a mile, to be useful for 2 and 3 yo w/out established turf form. I'll also like to see a workout at 6F or 7F or even better if last race on dirt is at 7F (regardless of that horses form in last). This last bit is more potent for first time turf routes, IMHO.

Rails out, I will move up early speed just a little but otherwise will look at recent last quarters for established turfers.

I treat turf sprints more in the dirt sprints category, but usually don't play them too much.

I've been keeping an eye on Bernstein's first time turfers...this one has been sneaking under the radar.

[cmoore]

Pinnacle, the new track in Michigan, will have a turf course next year and those cards will be filled with horses who have never touched the surface,good luck on trying to cash tickets consistently on those races..lol



That sounds like a buffet of long shots..Most likely there will be many over bet horses and the long shots will come in the plenty..When does this meet start next year?

[Nmytwenties]

I believe the PNL meet starts in April or early May and runs through November. The turf course wasn't in place this year and I am not sure for certain when it will be put in but they definatly will have one there. I would assume it will be next year,turf racing probably wont start until the summer though June or July .

You are totally right on long shots. You might have some turf shippers from some other circuits that go up there for easy spots and win at low odds but watch out for Michigan state bred races on the turf....lol...There will be some bombs in there for sure, good luck picking them though.

[Onion Monster]

I like to bet horses who have run well on poly trying the turf for the first time. The fake dirt is about as close to grass as you can get.

[lansdale]

lansdale,

You may wish to look more deeply into the trainer and breeding aspects.

robert 99,

Thanks for your reply. I'm aware that these are useful tools for grass FTS, but I've generally found trainers to be overbet in this area - not contrarian. Re breeding, I don't use the Tomlinson ratings but I would like to know more specifically how to calibrate them with pace figures - that is the kind of answer I'm looking for.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

One of my favorite angles ever on the turf is a maiden switching from dirt to turf for the 1st time, with the following characteristics:

Speed and fade in a sprint race
going a mile or longer for the 1st time
distance pedigree, turf or dirt
little or no other early speed in the race
rail moved out
No in the money finishes
decent gate jockey today

If I can meet 4 or more of the criteria as listed and the odds are double digit, it's a play.

cj's dad,

Thanks for the heads-up on this angle. And congratulations on raising a son like CJ.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

If I can give you one bit of advice regarding turf it's this:

Horses of ANY pedigree can succeed at short distances on the turf.
Looking for turf pedigrees (or worse, eliminating horses without any) in 5F, 6F even 7F races is highly inconsistant.
In other words, any horse can win a turf sprint. When you stretch out to a Mile and greater (especially longer) pedigree is KEY.

slewis,

Thank for the heads-up on sprints. Re routes, I'd appreciate any ideas on equating Tomlinson numbers with pace figures, if this is something you use.

Cheers,

lansdale

[lansdale]

I find Tomlinson figures, when used together at both distance and turf beyond a mile, to be useful for 2 and 3 yo w/out established turf form. I'll also like to see a workout at 6F or 7F or even better if last race on dirt is at 7F (regardless of that horses form in last). This last bit is more potent for first time turf routes, IMHO.

Rails out, I will move up early speed just a little but otherwise will look at recent last quarters for established turfers.

I treat turf sprints more in the dirt sprints category, but usually don't play them too much.

I've been keeping an eye on Bernstein's first time turfers...this one has been sneaking under the radar.

o crunk,

Thanks for replying. As I said above, I know about Tomlinson figures but done't use them. I was wondering specifically about how valuable they are at isolating horses within a given class level.

Cheers,

lansdale

[Niko]

lansdale; I've found it tough too

Take someone like Frankel or other top trainers. If it's a foreign horse that has been off 5-6 months or more his numbers can jump dramatically from what you'd figure based on the European numbers.

I assume it's because of the presence of Lasix and also steriods having time to build up the muscles. To me it's a guessing game so more often than not I have to pass unless I see the right betting action.

I'm looking for that answer to. If the horse hasn't been laid up for a while I'll just judge the European numbers using CJ's conversion. But even then the addition of Lasix can wreak havoc.

[slewis]

slewis,

Thank for the heads-up on sprints. Re routes, I'd appreciate any ideas on equating Tomlinson numbers with pace figures, if this is something you use.

Cheers,

lansdale

About 8 yrs ago, before Tomlinsons were in the DRF, A friend of mine introduced them to me and I started having a serious look at them.

I haven't looked at them in the last 71/2 years, catch my drift ?

Just my opinion.... it's just that I've seen some of his ratings on things like distance (On A horse whom I bred, who I bred to run all day, he had a VERY modest dist figure for) and think they can be kooky.
If they work for you, great.