Arson Squad's Bum Trip

[Stevie Belmont]

Wanted to wait for things settle down after the very eventful Cigar Mile Saturday. Wild race and sad...

Talk about a bum trip though. Arson Sqaud was dead last entering the top of the stretch, then had to avoid Wanderin Boy, bouncing him way wide on the bend. He still closed strong to finish 4. I still think he ran a great race, miserable trip. Not blaming anyone, thats racing. And Tale of Ekati and Harlem Rocker were on the inside, the place to be for weeks.

[the little guy]

I think you need to watch the race again.....and again.

Maybe Bribon had a little trouble, but not Arson Squad, and quite frankly, given the race dynamics, the first four finishers all had a great deal more good go their way than bad.

One could probably better argue that the first two finishers moved too soon.

[Stevie Belmont]

Don't need to see it again to know AS was 8 wide and last turning for home. To say Wanderin Boy had zero to do with it, can't be confirmed. Gomez was in back it, and seeing this made him react. He ran around him seeing he was in distress, making him go even wider.

[Robert Fischer]

when you rate from last in a decent mile race, you are going to be wide doing it in most cases. Was he exceptionally wide? given that he rated in last? Maybe a tiny bit...

Who knows, Arson Squad may have been as good as any of the top 4.

Bribon also ran up Storm Play's butt and arguably was better than Arson Squad.

I thought Harlem Rocker looked easily the most impressive and that he may have moved too early. He also had a less important setback of slightly missing the break and being bumped. With Rocker, it comes down to knowing if Coa could have waited a few strides longer and then won in the clear(in which case he was the best) or if the animal was going to go and fizzle out a little regardless.

Tale of Etaki may have had the easiest trip of the top 4, but hey he ran a fairly solid race regardless and he isn't such an overrated slow bum when he races within his distance limits.

Monterey Jazz is one of those horses that could be a california grade II turf horse if he was put in the right spots... The Strub was right because that SA track happened to be extremely biased at that time (in his favor) but in general he should only be running on the firm turf in favorable spots. Who knows what the hell they were thinking with the texas mile, and the cigar? Even worse to the horseplayers who made him 3-1 in the Cigar even allowing for the speed biased track that day.

[the little guy]

Don't need to see it again to know AS was 8 wide and last turning for home. To say Wanderin Boy had zero to do with it, can't be confirmed. Gomez was in back it, and seeing this made him react. He ran around him seeing he was in distress, making him go even wider.


Yeah, why watch it again.....especially when you saw it incorrectly the first time.

[Stevie Belmont]

See what Incorrectly? Explain yourself. Iv'e watched the replay several times.

Bum trip and wide? Not true I guess? To you anyway.


Yeah, why watch it again.....especially when you saw it incorrectly the first time.

[the little guy]

Trips aren't about isolated events....they are about the races in their entirety.

The most important part of this race, from a trip standpoint, was that the speeds collapsed, and the stalkers and closers dominated.

Now, as far as Arson Squad is concerned, here is his actual trip.....two to three wide behind horses, after breaking well, down the backstretch. Briefly dropped right to the rail as the field hit the turn, angled to the two path during the turn and angled three wide very late on the turn. He was in the process of angling outside, as well ridden closers usually are, into the stretch when perhaps he was forced a path or two wider by Wanderin Boy. At the same time, Bribon was slipping inside and was physically interfered with by Wanderin Boy. Now, he was also saving a few inches of ground, and was benifitting from the same favorable race dynamics as Arson Squad, so while he did have a slightly tougher trip, it was fairly negligable all things considered.

Arson Squad was a fairly nonthreatening fourth, only running when it was too late in a race that collapsed, and had an overall great trip and set-up. Choose to believe whatever you want.....but this is what really happened.

[Stevie Belmont]

Good description...

All I'm saying is he was way wide on that turn, and that hurt him. Wanderin Boy breaking down impacted AS and Gomez to an extent...How much. Don't know. It was something though.

I did not like the fact he was so far behind to begin with, but they understood the pace scenario and went into this with the idea that they would come from way back. Just felt he could have been a little closer at that point in the race. He closed well in the middle of the track.

Despite that, he still only Lost by a about a half length. I will say it safe to say, he would have been even closer if not for the issues on the top of the stretch.


Trips aren't about isolated events....they are about the races in their entirety.

The most important part of this race, from a trip standpoint, was that the speeds collapsed, and the stalkers and closers dominated.

Now, as far as Arson Squad is concerned, here is his actual trip.....two to three wide behind horses, after breaking well, down the backstretch. Briefly dropped right to the rail as the field hit the turn, angled to the two path during the turn and angled three wide very late on the turn. He was in the process of angling outside, as well ridden closers usually are, into the stretch when perhaps he was forced a path or two wider by Wanderin Boy. At the same time, Bribon was slipping inside and was physically interfered with by Wanderin Boy. Now, he was also saving a few inches of ground, and was benifitting from the same favorable race dynamics as Arson Squad, so while he did have a slightly tougher trip, it was fairly negligable all things considered.

Arson Squad was a fairly nonthreatening fourth, only running when it was too late in a race that collapsed, and had an overall great trip and set-up. Choose to believe whatever you want.....but this is what really happened.

[the little guy]

He was not WAY WIDE on the turn....in fact, not even close. Your entire argument, therefore, is flawed.

[Stevie Belmont]

Well it obvious you do not know what youre talking about here, a little surprised, but thats okay. Were all wrong sometimes. And you wrong on this one.

And my argument is not flawed in the least, nice try kid.


He was not WAY WIDE on the turn....in fact, not even close. Your entire argument, therefore, is flawed.

[the little guy]

Maybe some other people here would like to actually watch the race, pan and head-on, and check in. Perhaps if two or two thousand more people tell you what happened you will take some of your valuable time to watch the race again. Just trying to help.

Are you sure you watched the right race....the 8th on Saturday at Aqueduct?

[PaceAdvantage]

Well it obvious you do not know what youre talking about here, a little surprised, but thats okay. Were all wrong sometimes. And you wrong on this one.I just watched the race again. And then I checked the chart. And then I watched the head-on replay.

Arson Squad swings out wide just as they turn for home....for 95% of the turn he is in the two or three path at most. Have to agree with Andy here...

[cj]

I watched the race a few times. It is clear the horse doesn't begin his move wide until the last few yards of the turn. There is a very slight amount of ground loss moving from the 2 path to the 8 path on a straightaway, but it is minuscule compared to ground loss on a turn.

[the little guy]

1998 to go.

[OTM Al]

The confusion here is way wide on the full turn versus fanning wide coming out of the turn. He was not wide through the whole turn so he probably lost only a couple feet by fanning out (as turf horses often do) as opposed the loss he would have had by being 4 wide all the way around. Mathematically, a turn is a half-circle. The circumferance of a circle is 2 times the radius times pi so the distance around the turn is half of that. Assume a path is about 5 ft. Thus if he was 4 wide around the turn, he would have travelled (r +15 feet) times pi around the turn. A horse on the rail would have travelled only r times pi. The difference is 15 x pi or about 47 feet, 5 to 6 lengths depending how you figure. Just fanning out at the top of the turn costs in the limit (if he could go sidewise) 15 feet if you go from the rail out to the 4 path. Big difference there

[Robert Fischer]

http://img87.imageshack.us/img87/448/arsonquadgl0.jpg
http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/5631/arsonsquaddf7.jpg

[cmoore]

Arson Squad only lost by a length and he did veer out just a little at the end of the turn which could of cost him the race. The charts even say"forced outward by rival in distress turning for home". Did it cost him the race? Its a toss up..If he didn't go outward as much. Gomez could of gotten his late run going ten or twenty feet earlier which might of saved him a length possibly..

[bigmack]

ASquad was able to slip right on by WB. Ground loss was negligible. Would he not have been wise to go in that path given the amount of traffic upfront irrespective of WB breaking down?

XNpRtgKd1pY

[oddsmaven]

Personally, I'm not big on adding a length here and there for trouble and assuming it makes the difference on winning or not. At times, yes, but NOT TOO OFTEN as I think that a horse such as Harlem Rocker may stubbornly hold off a challenge. Going by a horse trying to stay in front is a different story than tacking on ground loss, and assuming it would've happened. It's a lot easier to make a run belatedly and gain ground while not catching the leader then actually getting the job done.

[Robert Fischer]

XNpRtgKd1pY

great work at showing just the turn in multiple replays

anyone reading this thread should give it a look :ThmbUp:

[the little guy]

It's a lot easier to make a run belatedly and gain ground while not catching the leader then actually getting the job done.


This is something I agree with a lot. Not as an absolute, not that you were suggesting it was, but in many cases.

I like to call it " clunking up. "

[cmoore]

Personally, I'm not big on adding a length here and there for trouble and assuming it makes the difference on winning or not. At times, yes, but NOT TOO OFTEN as I think that a horse such as Harlem Rocker may stubbornly hold off a challenge. Going by a horse trying to stay in front is a different story than tacking on ground loss, and assuming it would've happened. It's a lot easier to make a run belatedly and gain ground while not catching the leader then actually getting the job done.

Obviously the 2 outside runners had the most energy left and if Arson Squad could of gradually went to the outside while getting his late run going he might of been able to make up that length..It's a coin flip either way..

[cj]

The big question is would anyone bet him back based on this supposed trouble and the chance it actually cost him the race? I know I sure wouldn't.

[Stevie Belmont]

I'm talking about him being wide at the top of the stretch. Regardless of how he wound up out there or not. Wanderin Boy in front of him, did make matters worse. He had a good trip up until that point. It was at the top there is where things went bad for the horse. There is no doubt he lost some ground there.

Do I think with that happening at the top of the stretch he would have won? I can't answer that and I'm not sure anyone can. I do think he would have been closer. He went from last to within a half length of the winner. I'll leave it at that.

The debate is good.

[the little guy]

I'm talking about him being wide at the top of the stretch. Regardless of how he wound up out there or not. Wanderin Boy in front of him, did make matters worse. He had a good trip up until that point. It was at the top there is where things went bad for the horse. There is no doubt he lost some ground there.

Do I think with that happening at the top of the stretch he would have won? I can't answer that and I'm not sure anyone can. I do think he would have been closer. He went from last to within a half length of the winner. I'll leave it at that.

The debate is good.


Please direct me to the debate.

All I see is a lovefest of agreement.

[toetoe]

Glad you brought that up, Al.

Every path on a sweeping turn like Belmont's is more groundlosing than its counterpart on a bullring. Think about it --- I am NOT saying that bullrings don't often feature horses blowing turns and losing multiple lengths of ground, just that PER PATH, Belmont charges more LPP --- lengths per path --- than any other track, simply because of the length of the turn.

This is not to argue that AS was many paths out for an extended stretch.

[Stevie Belmont]

What can I tell ya, I'm good.


Please direct me to the debate.

All I see is a lovefest of agreement.

[Robert Fischer]

i would take Arson Squad over the Winner (Tale of Ekati) if they faced next out

especially considering ToE's probable lower odds


not Harlem Rocker, or Bribon , but i couldn't toss Arson Squad either...

[the little guy]

Let's reopen this discussion.

[NTamm1215]

Let's reopen this discussion.

Whether Arson Squad had a bad trip in the Cigar Mile is still debatable, however, he basically had no chance on Saturday based on the way the GP main track favored speed all day. Not only did Reade Baker's seemingly hopeless 30-1 shot hang around gamely in the Holy Bull, but then Finallymadeit, on seven days' rest, made Albertus Maximus work all the way to the wire.

Arson Squad is no superstar and it was probably ill-advised to base one's opinion of him on the trip he received in the Cigar Mile.

It is also worth noting that the first three horses to run back after the Cigar Mile were Arson Squad, who was fourth as the favorite in the Donn, Bribon, who was 10th as the favorite in the Holy Bull, and Monterey Jazz, who was third as the 13-10 favorite in an optional claimer at Santa Anita on the lawn while watching a Golden Gate shipper go wire to wire.

NT

[the little guy]

I tend to agree Nick, but what it also showed is that basically he is one dimensional, and if he doesn't get things his own way he is up against it.

It is also worth noting that the two that ran back, Bribon and Arson Squad, were the two deep closers from the Cigar. Also, Bribon has shown in the past that he doesn't do too well at Gulfstream.

[NTamm1215]

I tend to agree Nick, but what it also showed is that basically he is one dimensional, and if he doesn't get things his own way he is up against it.

It is also worth noting that the two that ran back, Bribon and Arson Squad, were the two deep closers from the Cigar. Also, Bribon has shown in the past that he doesn't do too well at Gulfstream.

He certainly does need things to go his way. Anyone who bet on him in the Cigar Mile should have known that from the Meadowlands Cup when the race literally backed right into him.

NT