Winner vs Leader

[LOU M.]

When creating average(par) times for pace which would be more preferable, the leaders' times at the various points of call or the winners?

[Tom]

You'll get a difference in opinions here, but I like to use pace-of-race times for the variants. Most time, the winner is close enough to the lead to make little diffrence, but if there is a race with very fast fraction, I just don't use it. My theory is that the race is broken in to two races - the half and the full race. Horses that win the half mile race don't always winn the final race. But what they do in the first half affect those that win the final race.
howver you do it, just remember, any variant you or anyone else makes is only a guess at what reality should be - the reality is what the horse ran that day in real time (assuming it was reported correcctly by whoever it is that time races).