Love Abroad

[Light]

How did this horse go off as the longest shot in yesterdays's featcha @Aqu? Was coming out of the best race purse wise by $100,000. Had the best speed figure for the distance out of that race despite being steadied in that race.What more do you need to know? Wins for fun. I noticed even Crist did not include him in his usual goliath tickets.What negative factor did I miss? This does not take skill or clairvoyance. This is basic handicapping. This is what I mean when I say A) it was easy and /or B) The top 2 speed rated horses do not necessarily pay chalk. The betting public was insane to ignore this horse.What were they thinking?

[Dahoss9698]

Why was my response deleted? What exactly did I say wrong?

Light, it's always easier after the fact. I didn't see you mention the horse before the race, so isn't it kind of silly to pound your chest after it? While giving Crist a shot in the process?

Mods, delete away....

[PaceAdvantage]

It was deleted because it served no purpose other than provoke a fight.

It is getting very annoying to see this pattern developing whereby someone posts about a past winner and then that person is accused of red boarding.

I find the discussion of past winners to be beneficial. Exploring the subject may bring some eye-opening revelations to the forefront.

What your reply did was immediately turn the thread hostile and potentially kill any useful discussion that may have evolved.

I couldn't care less whether Light had the horse in real life or not, and I couldn't care less if he posted about it beforehand.

This isn't the selections section. This is HANDICAPPING DISCUSSION.

If he posted this in the selections section, then you might have a better case to be made.

[Light]

Dahoss9698

You kind of flamed me and I flamed you back,so both posts were deleted. The problem I find on this board is everyone gets personal instead of exchanging ideas on a subject. You're interpreting my post wrong. I'ts not about me.I think its kind of pathetic really if I was doing what you think I'm doing.

[the little guy]

The horse was in seemingly over his head.....that's why he was the longest shot on the board.

You do realize the odds-on favorite in the race was eased...right.

Frankly, I find the entire first post inflammatory, as it carries your extreme jealousy of Steve Crist, and his recent successes, forward. As though, somehow, him not using this horse in the Pick-6 confirms your former foolishness. Nothing could be further from the truth.

And, furthermore, if anyone has a right to redboard this horse it would be me, as Eric Donovan and I profiled his last race on Trips and Traps, and discussed how he showed that he was progressing in the right direction as we approached Aqueduct. However, I still didn't like him yesterday. I guess I'm an idiot as well. Oh well. I've learned to live with that for the past 46 years. No big deal.

[oddsmaven]

Light you’re probably a more talented bettor than me but I am very good at projecting odds & this race was bet as expected for the most part…especially the top four…if you want to say Love Abroad should have been 5th choice instead of 6th, fine, but apparently some money showed on the outclassed South Fourth St because Contessa is .21 off claims…but I gather you think he should have been 5:1 or maybe 2:1 :eek: to hear your selective review…you asked what the public was thinking…SN should have easily been expected to be odds-on off of the clear victor with a 100 Beyer in last, winning 6 of 11 this year and the absolute clear speed of the field…arguably vulnerable at distance but 1-1 at a mile…Big Truck’s a popular horse who waged a classic campaign & owned an outstanding record vs st-breds…I.Crane gets popular support too off his resume of 3 wins from 7 starts incl. 3rd in the Preakness…G&R came off a formful effort vs similar and had 2nd best last Beyer…Love Abroad’s 2008 slate was only 4-0-0-1…went off an eye-popping average of 57:1 last 3 (not popular!! – based on unimpressive career)…last was a nice effort; steadied, but was no threat at all to the top two clunking up for third…this argument of a $100,000 edge in purse is overblown…that was a restricted race to state-breds attracting pretty much the usual group that race in the slightly better of those stakes…in both tries prior to that, he ran in races about one-fifth that value and was blown away.

[JustRalph]

You do realize the odds-on favorite in the race was eased...right.

Interesting point........ I had to load the card and look.

my software shows the horse with an odds line of about 16 to 1. Re-run the card with the favorite scratched and Love abroad comes down to a little less than 4-1. So if you toss the fav as running last or eased........ I guess this horse was a great bet........ if you did that you were golden. I wasn't playing, but in looking at it.... I wouldn't have tossed the fav. he looked awesome on paper

[DeltaLover]

The key factor in this race was Dutrow's horse who went to the post as a false favorite. Over helped by his trainer's vast array of anabolics steroids etc Storming Normandy was due to show his tiredness sooner or later, pretty much replicating his stable mate Big Brown in his Belmont fiasco especially after his last performance where he displayed clear signs of his form decline drifting out despite his win.

With over fifty per cent of every pool based in SN, things are becoming relatively easy for the asture handicapper, who probably cannot easily spot Love Abroad as the single winner but he has the luxury to use lots of combination taking the favor's failure for grand.

If we add to all these the fact that two very promising 3yo like Iceband Crane and Big Truck are participating things are becoming even easier. Just select one of the two as the base for your bet and use it with all the remainding horses which are only four!

That's exactly how I managed to catch the $229 exacta, as Frederico Tessio's winner looked too good for me in this race and made it my key horse in my exactas... Only thing I regret is not extending my betting to tri's that payed close to $1,000 in a six horse field.

[Light]

All of the horses in that stake were out of restricted state bred races. Love Abroad's had a higher purse of $100,000 than the rest. I would think that holds some weight,at least it does for me in dealing with stake races from experience. You may recall the FL longshot Crist had that gave him the entire pk6 recently with the same $100,000 purse advantage with another odds on horse in that race. I only pointed out Crist(and btw TLF and ED) did not have this horse because they must of all had the same mentality as the public. I dont say this to deride but am amazed that "pros" do not understand this angle as well. This is now 2 times in 2 weeks with the same pattern, and I dont play Aqu regularly so there may have been other incidents. So if you think my point is to boast or deride,you are mistaken.I'm pointing out a repeating pattern. I actually dont get into the technical details of my personal handicapping for obvious reasons. But this one should be apparent. If Love Abroad does not have that big fig in his last race,I would not have been interested.Now having a big fig and moving to a higher grade of race or purse value,would give me more pause. But in fact,this race was a lower purse value,just like the FL horse. Alot of the credentials of the other horses were in their past and Love's was in the present.

So maybe I get it.Everyone thought the horse was outclassed. The way I look at these races is if a horse moves up in class as LA did before yesterday's race,and runs a higher speed figure than their previous races,there is something special going on with that horse. That's because horses usually run lower speed figs when they move up in class,and vice versa. And if he did it with the same jock as todays jock,that is much more preferable. Its just that the public usually looks mainly at the last race and based on that,I fully expected this horse to be 2nd chalk.There were other races I hit yesterday that paid a price.Again not boasting. Just that I understand how and why those horses were prices. This one made no sense to me. If it made sense (which it still doesn't in a way),I wouldn't have posted.

[Tom Barrister]

A deep closer who hasn't shown the ability to close against the kind of pace being faced today isn't the greatest of bets. The horse did show some improvement in the last race, but horses like that can bounce as easily as continue to improve. Being steadied and having a good record at Aqueduct are pluses. It looks as though they were going to run him closer to the pace in the last race, where he got into traffic trouble. I couldn't fault anybody for betting the horse at 17-1, but he certainly wouldn't have been a prime play for me.

[cj's dad]

I'm a numbers guy- having said that, the 1 & 2 clearly had better overall figs while the 2 & 3 more impressive late pace #s. by 12-15 pts.

By the numbers, he was ,IMO, the 4th choice and only becomes so due to the #5 scratching out of the race.

Obviously,again by his figs, he was a horse on the improve in his last 3 outings. He did however look to be in a bit too deep.

[cj]

How did this horse go off as the longest shot in yesterday's featcha @Aqu? Was coming out of the best race purse wise by $100,000. Had the best speed figure for the distance out of that race despite being steadied in that race.What more do you need to know? Wins for fun. I noticed even Crist did not include him in his usual goliath tickets.What negative factor did I miss? This does not take skill or clairvoyance. This is basic handicapping. This is what I mean when I say A) it was easy and /or B) The top 2 speed rated horses do not necessarily pay chalk. The betting public was insane to ignore this horse.What were they thinking?

Just curious how you interpret some things. You say he had the best speed figure for the distance out of the Empire Classic. First, what speed figures ar you using? Second, that race was at 9f, while Sunday's was at 8f.

Looking at Beyers, the favorite had previously run a 97 at 8.5f and a 95 at 8f. Big Truck's last dirt race was for a $150,000 higher purse than Love Abroard, and he was given an 86 Beyer while going the same 9f distance, equal to that of Love Abroard. Gold and Roses earned an 89 going 7f, the same difference in distance love aboard was tackling. Which horse ran closer to today's conditions? Gold and Roses ran a furlong shorter around the same number of turns while Love Aboard ran a furlong longer around an extra turn.

I don't really care when people want to come and talk about their winners much anymore. It used to bug me, but in the end, does it really matter? But I think it is a poor way to discuss handicapping because I could probably find reason after the race to bet 99% of all winners in every race ever ran. The difficult part of handicapping is deciding what factor or facotors are most relevant today.

The questions above are the kind of things best discussed before the race is run. You don't even have to make "selections", but at least discuss how you interpret the data. Anyone can interpret it once the results are known in my opinion. Does anybody here really care if you get the winner or not?

[PaceAdvantage]

I don't really care when people want to come and talk about their winners much anymore. It used to bug me, but in the end, does it really matter? But I think it is a poor way to discuss handicapping because I could probably find reason after the race to bet 99% of all winners in every race ever ran. The difficult part of handicapping is deciding what factor or facotors are most relevant today.

The questions above are the kind of things best discussed before the race is run. You don't even have to make "selections", but at least discuss how you interpret the data. Anyone can interpret it once the results are known in my opinion. Does anybody here really care if you get the winner or not?While I maintain there is usefulness in dissecting previous results, I can't deny that what you state here makes total sense.

And the line about deciding what factor or factors are most relevant today is dead on 100% accurate.

[cj]

While I maintain there is usefulness in dissecting previous results, I can't deny that what you state here makes total sense.

And the line about deciding what factor or factors are most relevant today is dead on 100% accurate.

That is all I'm saying. If people really want to talk about handicapping and how they go about it, knowing the venom that talking about it after the race is run brings, it is just as easy to post a race before it is run. You can STILL dissect it after the results are known. It is an even better learning tool when you see the before and the after.

Also, the Crist thing was an obvious attempt to drudge up an old fight, don't you think?

[PaceAdvantage]

Also, the Crist thing was an obvious attempt to drudge up an old fight, don't you think?To be honest, I missed the Crist thing in Light's original post...I was totally focused on DaHoss' "red board" reply.

[Dahoss9698]

It was deleted because it served no purpose other than provoke a fight.

It is getting very annoying to see this pattern developing whereby someone posts about a past winner and then that person is accused of red boarding.

I find the discussion of past winners to be beneficial. Exploring the subject may bring some eye-opening revelations to the forefront.

What your reply did was immediately turn the thread hostile and potentially kill any useful discussion that may have evolved.

I couldn't care less whether Light had the horse in real life or not, and I couldn't care less if he posted about it beforehand.

This isn't the selections section. This is HANDICAPPING DISCUSSION.

If he posted this in the selections section, then you might have a better case to be made.

Essentially CJ made all of the points I was going to. I love discussing races and figuring out what someone saw in a horse that I might not have. In my opinion there is not nearly enough of it being done on message boards.

But, I don't think this is the case at all. To me, it was a chance to give a cheap shot to Crist, basically a carryover to the already over the top thread. That was why i said something. I'm glad I'm not the only one that saw it that way.

[Light]

First, what speed figures ar you using?

I use Bris figs which I know you dislike.

Big Truck's last dirt race was for a $150,000 higher purse than Love Abroard,

That's incorrect. LA ran for a $250,000 purse in his last race on dirt and BT ran for $150,000 purse last time on dirt. LA had the $100,000 advantage.When a horse drops from 16k to 10k,everyone is on him for the 6K drop. Yet in the stake, a horse is dropping a $100k less,yet that doesn't seem important to anyone responding.

Does anybody here really care if you get the winner or not?

I dont start many threads. As I said,its not really about me getting a winner. As I said,that would be pathetic. Its about understanding the psychology of the betting public. I dont think its that big of a deal to talk maturely about why a horse was bet or not.

The questions above are the kind of things best discussed before the race is run.

In my case it would have accomplished nothing talking about it beforehand because my point is about the lack of betting this horse recieved.I wouldn't have known that beforehand. If the hosre was bet and won,i'd just be yawning about it instead of posting.

Also, the Crist thing was an obvious attempt to drudge up an old fight, don't you think??

Repeating my point was that the so called "pros" are just as subject to myths about handicapping as the general public.

Geez,let me not bring up any more winners.The reactions are so immature. So what if someone hits a longshot.There shouldn't be a 3rd degree about it.It seems to be a sin around here to point out an interesting winner without being accused of alterior motives.I've learned my lesson.

[Dahoss9698]

Big Truck's last dirt race was in the Albany, a $400,000 stake. Love Abroads last dirt race was in the Empire Classic, a $250,000 race.

I'm also not sure if you even looked at the PP's, but he deserved to be one of the longer prices in the field. It was pretty obvious he was going to be a big price. And while I know using the ML is not exactly a great way to gauge how the betting is going to be, he was the second longest shot in the ML. And, he was running against horses who have been running against better, in open company.

He ran huge, got some help during the race and was a nice catch to whoever bet him. But, the reason it's nice to talk about stuff beforehand is because everything always seems easier after the fact.

[Dahoss9698]

I was wrong. The Albany is a 150k race. It was 400k this year because Tin Cup Chalice got the bonus. My bad.

[cj]

I use Bris figs which I know you dislike.

That doesn't matter, but it certainly helps explain how a "figure" horse could be the price he was. BRIS figures are certainly not anywhere near as big an influence on the price as Beyers or others. The public didn't overlook the top figure horse when hardly anyone in the public saw the figures to overlook them.

As far as not posting early, that is fine, but it was very obvious that horse was going to be a big price.

[ryesteve]

When a horse drops from 16k to 10k,everyone is on him for the 6K drop. Yet in the stake, a horse is dropping a $100k less,yet that doesn't seem important to anyone responding.Because it's not.
Purse value of stakes races is a poor barometer of the quality of the field, and comparing that to movements in claiming price isn't even apples and oranges.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I didn't bet the race or the card, though I did handicap the card a day in advance. I thought most of the horses had some merits and could at least finish in the money, but I did have Love Abroad ranked 6th of the 7 entries. The last race figure was better that his others, and did have that spot of trouble, but his overall record was 23: 3-7-3. with others that had higher figures in other recent races, and better records, and with sprinters stretching out, and my most likely horse.

With others having won stakes races and having better records, having faster sprint figures but trainers that are good at stretching horses out (yes, I thought best chance was Stormin Normandy, rebounding from the race in the mud won to win a $125k sprint stake with a 100 Beyer, and having a 97 Beyer in a 1-turn 1-1/16 mi race for a close 2nd in a small stake at Belmont, being 8-for-16 lifetime and the barn having a 25% win rate sprint-to-route from 153 starts, plus Prado, I thought that was the more likely winner. But things happen, and that's why they run the races, rather than just have the PA board discuss the race and award the purse money to our consensus winner.

As mentioned earlier in the thread, Stormin Normandy, who dueled as the 3/5 fave with the 2nd choice, had something go wrong. Both the duelers were out and well out. The winner was able to pass the dueling leaders, possibly compromised by the duel. Hard to say if Love Abroad gets past Stormin Normandy if he wins the duel and his wheels don't come flying off like they did. Easier to beat the 3/5 fave when he, for practical purposes ends up an Eased/DNF. But that is why one needs to handicap the race but consider the odds when betting. Love Abroad less that 16/1, sure. I can't see him as the favorite, he was a horse that could come through if the fave well apart, and he did. I'm sure glad I didn't bet Stormin Normandy at 3/5.

Good handicapping and taking proper chances can pay off, and congrats Light, on that success.

Admittedly, I don't know how many of those horses in each leg one can safely use from a bankroll perspective on a pick 6 ticket. Would I be correct in assmuing 2 winners were on that card, with a $241k pool and a $59,832 payoff for 6-of-6? I don't know if there was a carryover, I'm just guessing about half the pool to 6-of-6, maybe 25% to 5-of-6 and 25% to takeout (although 15% take at NYRA on non-carryover days) Still, this 16/1 shot, with a 8.9/1 and a 6.3/1 shot, along with the faves in the first 3 legs, hard to do it with a small bet, unless one had other insights and took some chances in the other legs.

[Light]

I don't know how the Beyer figs came out for the race but this is what I had using Bris figs and the representative pacelines I used. Why I select what paceline I dont discuss.

1) 106 6f 125k st bred race (used last PL)
2) 91 1.1/8 150k st bred race (3 back PL)
3) 87 1.1/8 150k st bred race (last PL) Adjusted fig 92
4) 98 6f 125k st bred race (2 back PL)
6) 98 1.7 20k clmg Finger Lakes
7) 99 1.8 250k st bred race (used last PL) adjusted to 102

This is an example of how I handicap. I get this output and go from there. Just based on the data here,is there any question who would be the play even w/o the adjustments,(that I wont discuss). If I gave you this scenario on any day,anyone with half a brain would pick the 1 and the 7 period.

[JustRalph]

Because it's not.
Purse value of stakes races is a poor barometer of the quality of the field, and comparing that to movements in claiming price isn't even apples and oranges.

I gotta agree with this one. I see this all the time. The way some of these horses avoid each other........ says it all. Running for 250k and running 3rd or 4th best is worse than choosing a 100k stake and having a very good chance of winning............this makes the prices on some these races irrelevant.

[Tom]

So after 24 posts, we finally get a bit of handicapping philosophy to ponder!:rolleyes:
Looking at Light's data, it would be interesting if the odds were listed in a final column. I tend to agree with the part about purse value in stakes, as long you don't compare open to NYB purses.

Some chuckle-head on another board listed 46 reasons ;) why class doesn't matter and doesn't exist, so this is a timely thread for some of us. The rest of the story, so to speak. Maybe we can get a stakes thread going this weekend - lots of stakes over four days.

[BUD]

I'll digress
LoveABroad, many times but none loved me--

OK--As you were

[Light]

Purse value of stakes races is a poor barometer of the quality of the field, and comparing that to movements in claiming price isn't even apples and oranges.

Umm. You should do some homework. Lets put your statement to the test and see what happened to horses coming out of the 4/5 fav's race and Love Abroad.

Love Abroad's $250k race was on 10/18. The 2 horses that beat him,Stud Muffin and Thatsrightofficer went into 2 different 100k stakes and ran 2nd in their perspective stake races.

Storman Normandy's $125k race was also on 10/18. The two closest finishers that came back from that race were 2nd place Rollers and 4th place Megapixel,both finishing only 1 1/2 lengths behind SN. Both were off the board in their next starts for an Optional claiming race. So much for your idea of a 250k race is no better quality than a 125k race.Is it any wonder SN did not even finish the route.

While there are no absolutes in this game,and I'm very flexible about class,if you needed a seperation factor or a little more encouragement to bet a horse in stakes,you should check out this factor a little more seriously before making blank,unsubstantiated, off the top of your head statements.

[the little guy]

You are postrace fitting results to suit your agenda. The optional claimer that Megapixel ( who actually ran OK ) and Rollers ( who didn't ) ran in was a very strong race and an actual analysis of that field would show that clearly. There were several members of that field that would be favored over, and most likely beat, Love Abroad if they met in a few weeks time. It was also run over a sloppy track.

The confluence of events that led to Love Abroad winning was probably a bigger longshot than his actual chances of winning the race. Whether you want to continue to try and cover it up or not, you started this thread to continue your desperate agenda against Steve Crist, and you are now piling one convenient misinterpretation after another in an attempt to legitimize your first post.

Maybe it works for some....but not for me ( and more than a few others ).

[DeanT]

If Normandy did not pull up lame or bleed we would not be having this conversation I think.

I'm with CJ on this. I am sure every race there is an overlay on a longer shot that people can find some good things about. But it is only a story when they actually win, not just race well. If someone threw a falafel at Curlin at the second call of the Dubai World Cup and he lost, someone would mention that the winner was an overlay and start a topic, but it wont help me handicap better.

[oddsmaven]

Light,

TLG beat me to it but I'll re-iterrate that you don't seem to understand the class and purse levels at NYRA...and Tom pointed out as well that you can't compare the state-bred purses to open company...that optional claiming level you deride is often all "open" allowance horses...state-bred stakes there are often pegged at $100k and their "restricted" fields may not be as good...it's not adviseable to make condescending remarks, especially if you don't know a whole lot about the matter.

[ezrabrooks]

So after 24 posts, we finally get a bit of handicapping philosophy to ponder!:rolleyes:
Looking at Light's data, it would be interesting if the odds were listed in a final column. I tend to agree with the part about purse value in stakes, as long you don't compare open to NYB purses.

Some chuckle-head on another board listed 46 reasons ;) why class doesn't matter and doesn't exist, so this is a timely thread for some of us. The rest of the story, so to speak. Maybe we can get a stakes thread going this weekend - lots of stakes over four days.

Where is 46 posting these days?

Ez

[o_crunk]

Here's something to handicap - Stormin Normandy is entered in the Fall Highweight on T-giving. I know Dutrow loves to roll them back like this on a couple days rest. Didn't look like there was anything wrong with him in that race either, just odd the way he didn't show his speed and then got shut down.

Didn't handicap the race you all speak of here, didn't even have the PP's, but watched it live on teevee and I do agree with a couple things going from memory. Could be wrong, but Stormin' Normandy is a more effective sprinter. Icabad Crane and Big Truck are both classic examples of TC horses that don't come back to do much. (If anything, I would never trust these two horses in any stakes race, at this point, in the win position - that's where the real value was IMHO). Those were the top 3 betting interests, right? On that alone, the other two are more interesting. If playing, I probably would have keyed the two longshots in an exacta with the favorite and dutched the longshots in the wps pool. But that's just how I play.

[Light]

Light,

TLG beat me to it but I'll re-iterrate that you don't seem to understand the class and purse levels at NYRA...and Tom pointed out as well that you can't compare the state-bred purses to open company...that optional claiming level you deride is often all "open" allowance horses...state-bred stakes there are often pegged at $100k and their "restricted" fields may not be as good...it's not adviseable to make condescending remarks, especially if you don't know a whole lot about the matter.

Do I really have to spoon feed these innuendos? Stud Muffin and Thatsrightofficer both went from that $250,000 state bred stake that LA came out of into Grade 3 stakes for open company and both ran respectable 2nd's in their respective races, The Stuvesant Handicap and the Discovery Handicap.While Megapixel and Rollers went to OC50kn2x for open company and got their asses kicked. If you think getting your ass kicked in OC50kn2x open company is better than running 2nd in G3 open company,maybe its you who doesnt understand class.

[the little guy]

Do I really have to spoon feed these innuendos? Stud Muffin and Thatsrightofficer both went from that $250,000 state bred stake that LA came out of into Grade 3 stakes for open company and both ran respectable 2nd's in their respective races, The Stuvesant Handicap and the Discovery Handicap.While Megapixel and Rollers went to OC50kn2x for open company and got their asses kicked. If you think getting your ass kicked in OC50kn2x open company is better than running 2nd in G3 open company,maybe its you who doesnt understand class.


It's easy to manipulate information, especially after races, but your recent efforts really take the cake. That'srightofficer lost to a horse coming out of two straight overnight turf stakes ( with purses of around $65K ) while Stud Muffin finished a distant second, in the mud, to a horse that was winless in 16 months. And, for what it's worth, they were both $100K races.

Reach all you want.....nobody is fooled.

[Light]

It's easy to manipulate information, especially after races, but your recent efforts really take the cake. That'srightofficer lost to a horse coming out of two straight overnight turf stakes ( with purses of around $65K )

You're starting to get tangled in your own web. Do you really want to knock That'srightofficer when he beat Big Truck,the clearcut second choice in Sunday's race, by 4-1/2 lengths and only beat Love Abroad by 3 1/2? Maybe you should look at those kinds of details a little closer. For example,on the NYRA website,on talking horses your top pick in Sunday's feature race is the scratched Dr.DFC. Did you realize that Love Abroad already beat that horse by 2 1/2 lenths in that tandem $250k state bred race?

while Stud Muffin finished a distant second, in the mud, to a horse that was winless in 16 months.

The horse he lost to that day was my top selection,Dry Martini. He'd obviously had health issues and talent.This horse was on the comeback trail and had won a G2 $300k purse last year. Prior to that,he'd run for a $1 million dollar purse against McCann's Mojave finishing 4th only 1 1/2 lengths behind.His last 2 were on the Turf as a prep for that dirt win over Stud Muffin. The Muffin has nothing to be ashamed of losing to the re emerging Martini.

You're knocking both horses for respectable finishes in G3 open company races yet its fine to you that the 2 you defend(by not talking about their poor performances in an Optional Claimer) were out of the money. Shameful. The logic here that somehow the 2 that were out of the money are excused while the 2 ITM should be out of the money,and Love Abroad's win should be downgraded is pure denial.



I think if I was someone more "noteworthy" like TLG and I announced that Love Abroad was my top selection even after the race,there would be hi 5's and "that's great".(Not that I'm looking for that crap). Instead I get flack ,distrust and animosity. It seems on this board,its not what you say that matters. It's who says it. If TLG said exactly what I said,it would be right on. I dont play those games.

[the little guy]

You're starting to get tangled in your own web. Do you really want to knock That'srightofficer when he beat Big Truck,the clearcut second choice in Sunday's race, by 4-1/2 lengths and only beat Love Abroad by 3 1/2? Maybe you should look at those kinds of details a little closer. For example,on the NYRA website,on talking horses your top pick in Sunday's feature race is the scratched Dr.DFC. Did you realize that Love Abroad already beat that horse by 2 1/2 lenths in that tandem $250k state bred race?



The horse he lost to that day was my top selection,Dry Martini. He'd obviously had health issues and talent.This horse was on the comeback trail and had won a G2 $300k purse last year. Prior to that,he'd run for a $1 million dollar purse against McCann's Mojave finishing 4th only 1 1/2 lengths behind.His last 2 were on the Turf as a prep for that dirt win over Stud Muffin. The Muffin has nothing to be ashamed of losing to the re emerging Martini.

You're knocking both horses for respectable finishes in G3 open company races yet its fine to you that the 2 you defend(by not talking about their poor performances in an Optional Claimer) were out of the money. Shameful. The logic here that somehow the 2 that were out of the money are excused while the 2 ITM should be out of the money,and Love Abroad's win should be downgraded is pure denial.



I think if I was someone more "noteworthy" like TLG and I announced that Love Abroad was my top selection even after the race,there would be hi 5's and "that's great".(Not that I'm looking for that crap). Instead I get flack ,distrust and animosity. It seems on this board,its not what you say that matters. It's who says it. If TLG said exactly what I said,it would be right on. I dont play those games.


It's hard to follow all your double talk. Unlike you, Dry Martini was actually my publically anounced choice in his last race. You, of course, tell us ten days after the race. Congratulations. None of that changes that the million dollar race he ran in was a State bred race. The bottom line is that you fit your argument around your desperate attempt to somehow continue to discredit Steve Crist....a man who actually cashes bets, and gives out winners before the races.

Yes, I would have bet Dr. D. F. C. in this race, and almost certainly have cashed, had he run. What does that have to do with Love Abroad winning?

The bottom line is that Love Abroad was a deserving longshot in this race, as has been explained ad finitum by a number of posters in this thread, and your entire thesis for this thread is faulty. He won because of an unusual confluence of events. It happens. We can all find ways to say that someone could have bet any winner after the races are run. You have done a poor job of showing why this horse should have been bet....and no job whatsoever of explaining why he was anything close to a legitimate overlay.

[Light]

The bottom line is that you fit your argument around your desperate attempt to somehow continue to discredit Steve Crist....a man who actually cashes bets, and gives out winners before the races.

You're the only one who thinks this thread is about Crist. Read the title of this thread.

Yes, I would have bet Dr. D. F. C. in this race, and almost certainly have cashed, had he run. What does that have to do with Love Abroad winning?

As mentioned,LA beat him by 2 1/2 lengths in the $250k stake and would have whipped him again.

Love Abroad.... He won because of an unusual confluence of events. It happens.

In case you havent noticed this is the norm rather than the exception.

We can all find ways to say that someone could have bet any winner after the races are run. You have done a poor job of showing why this horse should have been bet....and no job whatsoever of explaining why he was anything close to a legitimate overlay.

You must have been asleep when I posted this



1) 106 6f 125k st bred race (used last PL)
2) 91 1.1/8 150k st bred race (3 back PL)
3) 87 1.1/8 150k st bred race (last PL) Adjusted fig 92
4) 98 6f 125k st bred race (2 back PL)
6) 98 1.7 20k clmg Finger Lakes
7) 99 1.8 250k st bred race (used last PL) adjusted to 102

This is an example of how I handicap. I get this output and go from there. Just based on the data here,is there any question who would be the play even w/o the adjustments,(that I wont discuss). If I gave you this scenario on any day,anyone with half a brain would pick the 1 and the 7 period.

Maybe you never heard of Bris figs or maybe you're mathematically challenged.But what the numbers there say is LA was the best horse in the field.

[ryesteve]

the numbers there say is LA was the best horse in the field.So we've gone from "bettable overlay" to "better than Stormin Normandy"??

Just when I thought this thread couldn't get more idiotic... :rolleyes:

[oddsmaven]

Light,

Understood that your horse had plus factors in the way of an improving effort and a good BRIS figure in last…aside from the Crist stuff you said some things that were quite dubious instead of merely explaining what you liked about the horse.

"this was easy"…"basic handicapping"…Those are silly remarks but not surprising given the simplistic way you use purse barometers and then cite a horse finishing x amount of lengths in front or behind so-and-so in a given race - then that it is your idea of proof that he is better than someone else who lost by x lengths, regardless of any other races in their records.

The most ludicrous comment of your in this thread was “I fully expected this horse to be 2nd chalk”…that’s a lulu and tells me you are clueless in anticipating what the odds will be.

[Tom Barrister]

"clueless"
"idiotic"
"ludicrious"
"double talk"
"starting to get tangled in your own web"

Five minutes of my time wasted. None of the above has anything to do with handicapping.

Since the thread has turned into a Light vs thelittleguy pee pee match, it's probably overdue to be closed anyway. In any event it appears to have run its course of usefulness.

[cj]

There is an open moderator position. You could always apply. You could see how much fun it is. :)

Wait, was this your application?

[Light]

Half of this discussion is that I'm redboarding. You guys act like its a once in a lifetime chance to hit a $34 horse. As I said,I will post no more past victories. But I need to put a stop to this nonsense. The cats gonna come out of the bag. Not only did I have that horse,I had the late DD with him to the longer shot(of the DH) and while collecting on that I watched my 15-1 shot romp home at GGF.And I only used 2 horses per race,not 6 like Crist. When he bets like the common man,I'll have no beef. I'M sure TLG's mind is now blown. Three bombs in a row? Impossible.How amateurish for a public handicapper to think I'm redboarding. Who really cares if I hit it or not like PA said.Its about handicapping ideas,not me. But I'm tired of this disbelief.

Anyone wanting to challenge that I hit a 16-1,a 12-1 and a 15-1 shot in a row using only 2 horses a race on Sunday can put up or shut up. Put 10 grand in an escrow account TBD and challege me on it. I can show you records from my ADW but that can be altered with photoshop. Instead I will have Xppressbet verify it for you. So cut the crap or put up the dough.

When others have posted here about hitting some big hit(like an exotic much bigger than mine)its not a big deal to me. If they're lying I feel sorry for them and if its the truth great for them. I dont get in their face about it.Are people here such poor handicappers that hitting a longshot is an event? This and the Crist thread were turned into a pissing match about me. I have tried to steer it away,yet it kept turning towards me. This is why I have not learned a thing on this board. Its pure entertainment.

[the little guy]

And I only used 2 horses per race,not 6 like Crist. When he bets like the common man,I'll have no beef.




I feel really good for you that you finally were able to come clean and admit to yourself that this was all about your extreme jealousy towards Steve Crist. This is a great first step.

As for the rest, like everyone else here, I was just trying to explain why your initial thoughts that the horse should have been were a much lower price were incorrect. I think that's been established and I thank you for clearing up your own confusion about your obsessive jealousy towards Steve.

[bigmack]

This is why I have not learned a thing on this board. Its pure entertainment.
When typing, always space after a comma and double space after a period. Otherwise, text appears clumped together and less 'readable'. There, now you've learned something here.

For what it's worth, in both the Crist thread and here you have a tendency to press things beyond their need. If you're not getting the reaction you'd like out of a thread just pull the plug. Much like not receiving a prize from a contest. As BMurray once said in the inspirational film Meatballs; It Just Doesn't Matter.

Let it go.

[Light]

I feel really good for you that you finally were able to come clean and admit to yourself that this was all about your extreme jealousy towards Steve Crist.

Why would I be jealous of a guy who has to pick 6 horses a race,when I only need 2. If you reread my one previous reference to him,it was only to point out that even someone with massive tickets like him didn't have LA.

And TLG,why aren't you taking me up on my challenge? This whole thread you say I've been making things up to fit the false image that I had the winner cause you dont believe I had him So if I suck so much and dont know what I'm talking about how could I possibly have 3 shots in a row? I'd even fly out to N.Y.for $10k. It's easy money...for someone.

[cj]

I don't believe one person in this thread has ever questioned, or even cares, if you had the winner. Did I miss one?

[Light]

I don't believe one person in this thread has ever questioned, or even cares, if you had the winner. Did I miss one?

Did you miss anything? Is that a joke?

Post #2

Light, it's always easier after the fact. I didn't see you mention the horse before the race, so isn't it kind of silly to pound your chest after it?

Post #5

And, furthermore, if anyone has a right to redboard this horse it would be me

Post #18

But, the reason it's nice to talk about stuff beforehand is because everything always seems easier after the fact.

Post #28

You are postrace fitting results to suit your agenda.


Post #29

If someone threw a falafel at Curlin at the second call of the Dubai World Cup and he lost, someone would mention that the winner was an overlay and start a topic

Post #34

It's easy to manipulate information, especially after races, but your recent efforts really take the cake.


Post #36

Dry Martini was actually my publically anounced choice in his last race. You, of course, tell us ten days after the race.

[the little guy]

Not one of those quotes insinuates that you didn't bet the horse.

[Bubba X]

Thanks for that recap. I had missed the post about Curlin and the falafel threat.

I thought LA was a better wager than 16-1. He had a very decent last race and did enough late to finish 3rd when he had every right not to do so. He had knocks but certainly Stormin and some of the others did as well. I didn't bet LA but came close.

[Light]

You know,It doesn't get me off to announce a winner. Except for my thread about "Why did Giocomo win",this is the only other thread I've started about a horse. In the Giocomo thread,there were over 100 responses. It was a clean thread. I did not mention I picked the horse(which I didn't) so it made a world of difference for not killing the messenger. It's so immature that just because I say I hit a shot people have to get all hung up about it. When I say I caught a shot to my fellow handicappers in person,they dont even bat an eye about it and we move on because its not a big deal.They hit shots too and I dont bat an eye either. Here,it seems you have to have proof,just to get on with the subject.Like Rocky Horror says,"Dont get hung up by the way that I look(or speak in this case).Dont judge a book by its cover".

[bigmack]

If someone threw a falafel at Curlin at the second call of the Dubai World Cup and he lost, someone would mention that the winner was an overlay and start a topic, but it wont help me handicap better.
There's an upside to drilling this subject to the ground. I was able to see the Falafel/Curlin line that I had missed. :D

Why is this thread beginning to look like the Crist thread and Light boxing himself into being an injured wildebeest with jackals nipping at his keister?

Let it go man. Enough already. You saw what the pub didn't. Guess what? - It happens all the time.

By the way, it's not that a learning environment isn't in place for you here, it's that you're unwilling to learn. To review: space after comma, double after a period. :cool:

[cj]

By the way, it's not that a learning environment isn't in place for you here, it's that you're unwilling to learn. To review: space after comma, double after a period. :cool:

You can't do the double after a period on PA. I've tried many times, bugs the shit out of me.

[bigmack]

You can't do the double after a period on PA. I've tried many times, bugs the shit out of me.
Holy space bar, I hadn't realized. That's one up an old Underwood has on modern society.

By the way cj, welcome back to the states. How long is the waiting list at this juncture?

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/pf.jpg

[cj]

I don't keep one anymore. It is just a matter of timing, asking around the time a slot comes open.

[ezrabrooks]

Half of this discussion is that I'm redboarding. You guys act like its a once in a lifetime chance to hit a $34 horse. As I said,I will post no more past victories. But I need to put a stop to this nonsense. The cats gonna come out of the bag. Not only did I have that horse,I had the late DD with him to the longer shot(of the DH) and while collecting on that I watched my 15-1 shot romp home at GGF.And I only used 2 horses per race,not 6 like Crist. When he bets like the common man,I'll have no beef. I'M sure TLG's mind is now blown. Three bombs in a row? Impossible.How amateurish for a public handicapper to think I'm redboarding. Who really cares if I hit it or not like PA said.Its about handicapping ideas,not me. But I'm tired of this disbelief.

Anyone wanting to challenge that I hit a 16-1,a 12-1 and a 15-1 shot in a row using only 2 horses a race on Sunday can put up or shut up. Put 10 grand in an escrow account TBD and challege me on it. I can show you records from my ADW but that can be altered with photoshop. Instead I will have Xppressbet verify it for you. So cut the crap or put up the dough.

When others have posted here about hitting some big hit(like an exotic much bigger than mine)its not a big deal to me. If they're lying I feel sorry for them and if its the truth great for them. I dont get in their face about it.Are people here such poor handicappers that hitting a longshot is an event? This and the Crist thread were turned into a pissing match about me. I have tried to steer it away,yet it kept turning towards me. This is why I have not learned a thing on this board. Its pure entertainment.

10K? Is that what the common man wagers? $1 Doubles to a 10K bar bet..you da man Light.

Ez

[Tom]

Another example plucked from the racing headlines today:

Aqueduct, Race 7, Turf SB Stake, 65K

1 - Won 65K restricted Stake
2 - Won a SB OCNW2
3 - 2nd two back in an 80K SB
4 - Won 3rd back in an 80K SB
5 - Won a SB OCNW2
6 - Won a 75K restricted Stake
7 - 2nd in open Alw
8 - Speed and quits in NW2
9 - Won SB 150K Stake
10 - 3rd in open Stake
11 - 2nd in NW2 SB

#9 your $10 winner......thoughts?

[Light]

#9 your $10 winner......thoughts?

At the risk of being accused of redbaoding again,I had the 9-4 exacta. What was interesting again was the betting. The 1, Chestoria, went off as the 9/5 favorite,coming off that 65k restricted Stake win. But 2 back the 9, Love Cove(how appropriate,another "Love" horse) beat Chestoria by 3 lengths in the higher $150k st bred race. Note that the 2nd choice #10 coming out of a good 3rd vs open company 100k stake was a race for 3yo's only.

[the little guy]

God am I glad we're in the same pools.

Yet another thing to be thankful for on Thanksgiving.

[Dahoss9698]

You know,It doesn't get me off to announce a winner.


At the risk of being accused of redbaoding again,I had the 9-4 exacta.

Well, I'm convinced.

[hoovesupsideyourhe]

he bets to win.."crist" and does so alot..anyone who picks a fight with a guy who wins is lost or retarted ..

[cmoore]

I'm a little late but here's my 2 cents on that AQU race..If you look at the 1 closely..When he runs a big figure he bounces...98 to 91......102 to 91.....99 in last and bounced again.

Love Abroad faced a 115 race rated field and got a 117 class rating. No one faced tougher company last 2 races except for the 3 who got destoyed at that higher class. Love Abroad moved up in last and ran his best figure in 23 career races and that was at a distance of 1 1/8. So in conclusion of my after the race handicapping:D..this 7 was a very logical play at 16-1.

[ArlJim78]

he bets to win.."crist" and does so alot..anyone who picks a fight with a guy who wins is lost or retarted ..
who picked a fight with crist?