Those *%#!* final odds

[Kentucky Bred]

I've wanted to ask for opinions on a handicapping issue for sometime now...I guess no time like the present. I would appreciate your input.

This was prompted by reading a good thread about Formula's 2002 new adjustment to his impressive database stats. Each of his horses have a minimum acceptable odds associated with it. I too work with a final odds "bottom line" as it were. But this can be a source of frustration too. We all speak of controlling the mental portion of this game--well here it is.

One of Formula's winners today appeared to have won but may have been below the minimum acceptable odds. I think Fomula is right here to demand a minimum acceptable price. Minimum odds insures value.

But none of us can bet into that final line. Unless we're that guy who can wager right into the main pool seconds before the start. And even he can't really know until the race is on. I don't know what the odds were on this horse 2 or3 minutes before post but it might have been a bit higher. This would have qualified it as a winner.

This can be damn frustrating. No matter where I set my minimum acceptable odds it seems that I'm always dealing with the frustration of how long to wait? Do I just cut it off so many minutes to post? Do I think it will come down or go back up?

And do I have to say that it seems as though I get burned sometimes real hard when I'm wrong?

Is there an answer out there to how to deal with this final odds decision in a rational way?

Maybe the answer is to be more philosophical about it???

Kentucky Bred

[Fatl@DMTC.Com]

Get a non-US address and join Betfair, that should solve it.

[Tom]

Originally posted by Fatl@DMTC.Com
Get a non-US address and join Betfair, that should solve it.

How will this help? I am confused (what else is new?)

[formula_2002]

tom

from a previous note of mine.

"In a sample of 11656 favorites, 37% won (kind of high) and returned a dollar loss of 15%.

I was able to isolate 3884 races where the favorite won 26% of the time for a dollar loss of 27%."

From betfair.com

"Offer odds to others: If you can't pick a winning horse/team, then pick a loser. Offer odds to others against an outcome."


So in the above sample of 3884 races, I could lay odds that were say 10% better then the tracks odds, and make 17% for myself.

I could take the long odds and lay the short odds..


:cool: :cool:

[canuck]

K bred

www.betfair.com

This is going to revolutionize hoss racing in the near future--it allows you to back horses at a fixed rate or lay your own odds--you are playing against fellow hoeseplayers--usually there is in excess of 50k in the pool

Check it out