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OverlayHunter
11-22-2008, 10:53 AM
A handicapper for whom I've always had a lot of respect (and who, unfortunately, is no longer with us) often spoke/wrote of "negative claims". I've always construed that term to mean a horse claimed by a less talented and, usually, poor trainer from a more talented and, usually, good or very good trainer. (I'm speaking about the broad picture, not where one trainer is able to "figure out" a horse and get him to run well and no other trainer can find the weird or unusual "key" to making him fly rather than plod.)

I recently dusted off some notes and tried to apply that concept to a particular trainer handicapping concept he often touted only to be very surprised that in almost a year of data there were exactly zero instances where the negative claims were a consideration when I used the definition above. In the context of the handicapping concept, he felt it was important to identify negative claims and not wager those.

I've used HTR trainer ratings (which are pretty solid) to identify the relative competence of the trainers and have used a variety of benchmarks (differences in the ratings - sometimes extreme differences) so I'm left to conclude that either my notes are wrong or to wonder if anyone knows of other viable definitions of "negative claims".

Does anyone have any thoughts on what else this term can mean that can be applied fairly broadly?

098poi
11-22-2008, 11:11 AM
It could be that the true value of the horse is less than the claimed value.

If a horse has been competitive and then drops in class the trainer may be going for a win or getting rid of the horse. If the horse is the second favorite you would expect something during the race but let's say he shows nothing and finishes off the board. Your new 20K race horse may be worth a lot less. Try checking the few races previous to the claimed race and then look at how he ran in the claimed race. Maybe you can seperate a positive from a negative claim.

raybo
11-22-2008, 01:47 PM
No facts to back this up but the term "negative claim" would lead me to believe that the claimer has claimed a horse that "looks like" it is worth less than the claiming price paid for him/her.

OverlayHunter
11-23-2008, 08:11 AM
098poi and raybo -

It's really bad when we get so fixated on an idea that it substantially stifles our ability to consider other possibilities. That's not good in life in general and it's very detrimental in handicapping. I'm embarrassed I fell into that trap.

Your thoughts are certainly logical and the kind of clear thinking that I should have come up with myself. Thanks for clearing the cobwebs.

ezrabrooks
11-23-2008, 09:57 AM
I can't recall the term Negative Claim. What about a claimed horse that is run back at price, when add to the purse of that race, is less than the original claim. That is a negative something.

Ez

tribecaagent
11-23-2008, 11:22 AM
My advice is to pick up "Inside The Claiming Game" by Steve Collison.