Needed 1 Pick 4 Master, for an Apprenticeship

[pktruckdriver]

Well we all must start from the beginning, so I too will try this, from the beginning, I hope.

To become the Pick 4 Master, one must study and learn and learn and study some more and even still some long long hours behind the machine, tapping away till the wee hours of the morning, and even then one may be just touching the surface of Mastering the Pick 4, but I will make an attempt to do so.

Bold statement for a beginner, I know, but my tools are being assembled and my required reading and possible study groups, (well at least 1 group I did not apparently qualify for), but a few others I have been particapating in, and wish to continue with the learning process, until I feel competent enough to call my self a Pick4 Master, in about 5-10 years or so, maybe longer, but I am now laying down my lofty Goal in front this here board, today Nov, 21 2008......


Now what would qualify one as a Pick 4 Master?

Let us decide that , if we can here in this post?

Would a hit rate of say 25% be good enough, or must it be higher?

Must he/she be proficeint at more than 1 track or circuit?

Must he/she win a few Pick 4 Tourneys to qualify as a Master?

Would being able to play with 2 singles each Pick 4 qualify him?

Never playing more than 50.00 on any 2.00 Pick 4 play.

Or must he just be lucky enough to find someone to call him Master?



Now this post got away from already as I was only trying to get a few questions asked about where I might find some information concerning Pick 4's and then somehow getting them in report form, to have a go at studying them properly.

The following info and suggestions Please

With ADW's, hopefully we are assuming they will work things out soon with all parties and everyone will be back up on them soon, this we must assume, OK.

1st. What tracks offer Pick 4's and who offers, 2 Pick 4's a day?
1b. Takeouts too, please ( should be in DRF online )

2. Average pools and Payout's for those tracks offering Pick 4's
2b Broken down in various reports, per track to evaluate

3. If possible average players and average hit per Pick 4 Bets, per track

4. Average field size for these Pick 4 races, per track and per pick 4

5. Type of race used in the Pick 4, per track, MSW,Clm ,OC, NW1, etc...
5b Broken down in various reprots per track for further study

6. Average Race distance and surface, per track


There were a few more but I must go now, gotta head to Yuma, Az for Monday-Wensday unloading times, then north to the Biggest Little Town for Turkey Day, and back to Az that Friday, after that who knows....



Take Care
Good Luck
Patrick

[Sinner369]

What did Mark Twain say about the bikini???........Long enough to cover the subject........but short enough to be interesting!

That's how I feel about the Pick 4.........Decent payoff when the favorites do not win but the cost is not that prohibitive.

I always wonder myself what is the proper way to play..........Must single one leg?........go board in another?

What is your way of playing the Pick 4??

sinner:)

[LottaKash]

Patrick, I wish I could help you with the statistics that you are looking for, but I am still working on my Pick-1's, ..... :jump:

best,

[pktruckdriver]

Johnny Johnny Johnny :lol: :lol:



Some one will be able to point in the right direction, eventually.....



By-the-way LottaKash

Good Luck with your Pick 1's, though I doubt you need it




Patrick

[ryesteve]

Would a hit rate of say 25% be good enough, or must it be higher?Anyone hitting 25% of their pk4's is playing way, way, way too many combinations and is going to have a hard time making any money.

Now what would qualify one as a Pick 4 Master?

Let us decide that , if we can here in this post?This is the easy part... someone who consistently makes money at it. Makes no difference how or where they're doing it.

Now the hard part... my advice: don't. Scale back your aspirations. Stop looking for the big score. Yes, the pk4 provides geometrically higher payoffs, but since pk4 players don't enjoy geometrically higher ROIs, obviously they're suffering very painful, extended losing streaks somewhere along the way. My impression from following your posts is that this isn't a place you want to be.

Why not start by mastering the double? Yes, I know $45 payoffs aren't appealing to you, but how appealing would you find a $3000 runout on pk4's?

[Floyd]

I'm pretty new at this and haven't even considered the Pick 4 because, as LottaKash says, I'm still trying to figure out the Pick 1s. That's the key. When I get to the point where I can call four winners of any value in a row maybe I'll start.
How's your handicapping? Because the secret is to handicap a 50-percent chance or better to hit each leg. If you've got a 50-percent chance to hit leg 1, and maybe a 60-percent chance to hit legs 2 and 3, and then maybe an 80-percent chance to hit Leg 4, the probability of hitting all four legs will be .50 x .60 x .60 x .80, or 14 percent. That way you can reduce the odds to 6-1 (100/14-1), which is pretty good.
BUT, and this is a big but, at 6-1 odds against, the pick four has to pay a sevenfold return to be a fair bet. If you think the payoff won't exceed the cost of your investment by 7 times your investment, then forget it. Then again, you can pro-rate your cost of the tickets over 4 races so if your cost is $80, each race will cost $20, which isn't much. If you bet $80, the pick four has to pay $560 before it's a fair bet ($80 x 7.)
As Dirty Harry might say: "I know what you're thinking. "Did he say six-to-one odds or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is the Pick 4, the most powerful wager in the world, and would change your life if you hit it, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, Patrick?"

[pktruckdriver]

I hate it when people make sense...

Why not start by mastering the double? Yes, I know $45 payoffs aren't appealing to you, but how appealing would you find a $3000 runout on pk4's?


But Double Master ... it just does not sound as good as Pick 4 Master, but maybe 1 must take baby steps 1st... Double Double does equal 4



Now that still leaves those reports, as Having them will still let me study which tracks and what races to be a playing them there doubles in

Thank You Sir

[pktruckdriver]

I knew I loved this board. :lol: :lol:

[DanG]

As Dirty Harry might say: "I know what you're thinking. "Did he say six-to-one odds or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is the Pick 4, the most powerful wager in the world, and would change your life if you hit it, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, Patrick?"
:lol::lol::lol:
Great post Floyd (as was Ryesteve’s) and should be read start to finish, but this quoted part almost made me spew my Snapple all over the screen. :D

You my friend are a piece of work and I mean that in a good way. :ThmbUp:

Priceless!!!
http://www.topnews.in/light/files/clint-eastwood-dirty-harry.JPG

[offtrack]

Start by keeping a record of your Pick4 selections right now- today.
If you want to be a Master so bad do it.
Pick three tracks to follow; then see how good your selections are now.

After a week you will start to see where your strengths and weakness are.

Investigate getting a partner to share the research work.

[sammy the sage]

the KEY...to the p-4...is to have a race where-as the BIG fav. 6/5 or less...WILL NOT WIN it's leg...

you MUST throw-out w/confidence...some-time's you're wrong...BUT...when right...

then you KNOW...that pay-off's vs risk's...are WORTH it and REWARDED!

it's a LONG term WINNING strategy...

case's in point...

Big Brown in Belmont
Curlin's ONLY turf race
Curlin in breeder's cup

all EASILY discernable...and playable...of course...you still had to BET it RIGHT...

I'll give you a race for 11/22...

Thorn Song 6/5 fav...9th...at church...SHOULD not win...BUT how to play...Ah...that's another question ENTIRELY...

some days...

DD...best...or P-3...other days...or p-4...other's

DEPENDS on how the OTHER races set up!

so in closing...it's more COMPLICATED than just CHOOSING ONE bet to play..........

[pktruckdriver]

Thank you Sammy


I will put up my pick 4 play at Churchill tomorrow, later when I get a minute to run it,


By the way , since I can not actually bet on it,ADW, I should do good with it..



Go Gators
Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Okay here goes CD race 7-10 Pick 4


1,5,6,11/1,2,3/3,9,(11)/5,6,8,10


Economized , say the following


1,6/1,2,3/3,9/5,6




This is probally too quickly Handicapped, but let it ride and see...


Not responsible for major winners
Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Select a track from the list below for information:

Albuquerque (http://drf.com/trackinfo/albuquerque.html)
Aqueduct (http://drf.com/trackinfo/aqueduct.html)
Arapahoe Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/arapahoe_park.html)
Arlington Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/arlington_park.html)
Assiniboia Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/assiniboia_downs.html)
Atlantic City (http://drf.com/trackinfo/atlantic_city.html)
Bay Meadows (http://drf.com/trackinfo/bay_meadows.html)
Belmont Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/belmont_park.html)
Beulah Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/beulah_park.html)
Blue Ribbon Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/blue_ribbon_downs.html)
Calder Race Course (http://drf.com/trackinfo/calder_race_course.html)
Canterbury Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/canterbury_park.html)
Charles Town (http://drf.com/trackinfo/charles_town.html)
Churchill Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/churchill_downs.html)
Colonial Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/colonial_downs.html)
Del Mar (http://drf.com/trackinfo/del_mar.html)
Delta Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/delta_downs.html)
Delaware Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/delaware_park.html)
Ellis Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/ellis_park.html)
Emerald Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/emerald_downs.html)
Evangeline Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/evangeline_downs.html)
Fair Grounds (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fair_grounds.html)
Fair Meadows at Tulsa (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fair_meadows_at_tulsa.html)
Fairmount Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fairmount_park.html)
Fairplex Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fairplex_park.html)
Ferndale (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/ferndale.html)
Finger Lakes (http://drf.com/trackinfo/finger_lakes.html)
Fonner Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fonner_park.html)
Fort Erie (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fort_erie.html)
Fresno Fair (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/fresno_fair.html)
Golden Gate Fields (http://drf.com/trackinfo/golden_gate_fields.html)
Great Lakes Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/great_lakes_downs.html)
Gulfstream Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/gulfstream_park.html)
Hastings Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/hastings_park.html)
Hawthorne (http://drf.com/trackinfo/hawthorne.html)
Hollywood Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/hollywood_park.html)
Hoosier Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/hoosier_park.html)
Horsemen's Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/horsemens_park.html)
Indiana Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/indiana_downs.html)
Keeneland (http://drf.com/trackinfo/keeneland.html)
Kentucky Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/kentucky_downs.html)


Laurel Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/laurel_park.html)
Les Bois Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/les_bois_park.html)
Lone Star Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/lone_star_park.html)
Los Alamitos (http://drf.com/trackinfo/los_alamitos.html)
Louisiana Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/louisiana_downs.html)
Marquis Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/marquis_downs.html)
Meadowlands (http://drf.com/trackinfo/meadowlands.html)
Monmouth Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/monmouth_park.html)
Mountaineer Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/mountaineer_park.html)
Northlands Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/northlands_park.html)
Oaklawn Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/oaklawn_park.html)
Penn National (http://drf.com/trackinfo/penn_national.html)
Philadelphia Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/philadelphia_park.html)
Pimlico (http://drf.com/trackinfo/pimlico.html)
Playfair (http://drf.com/trackinfo/playfair.html)
Pleasanton (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/pleasanton.html)
Portland Meadows (http://drf.com/trackinfo/portland_meadows.html)
Prairie Meadows (http://drf.com/trackinfo/prairie_meadows.html)
Presque Isle Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/presque_isle_downs.html)
Remington Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/remington_park.html)
Retama Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/retama_park.html)
Rillito Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/rillito_park.html)
River Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/river_downs.html)
Ruidoso Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/ruidoso_downs.html)
Sacramento (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/sacramento.html)
Sam Houston (http://drf.com/trackinfo/sam_houston.html)
Santa Anita (http://drf.com/trackinfo/santa_anita.html)
Santa Rosa (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/santa_rosa.html)
Saratoga (http://drf.com/trackinfo/saratoga.html)
Solano (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/solano.html)
Sportsman's Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/sportsmans_park.html)
Stockton (CARF) (http://drf.com/trackinfo/stockton.html)
Suffolk Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/suffolk_downs.html)
Sunland Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/sunland_park.html)
SunRay Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/sunray_park.html)
Tampa Bay Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/tampa_bay_downs.html)
Thistledown (http://drf.com/trackinfo/thistledown.html)
Turf Paradise (http://drf.com/trackinfo/turf_paradise.html)
Turfway Park (http://drf.com/trackinfo/turfway_park.html)
Woodbine (http://drf.com/trackinfo/woodbine.html)
Woodlands (http://drf.com/trackinfo/woodlands.html)
Yavapai Downs (http://drf.com/trackinfo/yavapai_downs.html)





It seems that there about 80 tracks available to us , that I am sure can be narrowed down to about 1/4 to 2/3 of those that are Pick 4 prospects....

My journeys begins, one step at a time....


Patrick

[Steve 'StatMan']

Someone on the board usually runs a Pick-4 contest during the Aqueduct Inner-Dirt meet, so there is a chance to practice a bit, up to all of us how much work we put into it. Can't necessarily say it is good practice for bankroll purposes, although the contest is free, with small prizes and mostly for fun and pride amongst boardmates. IIRC look for the Rider's Up contest (named after the late, original poster who ran the contest). Normally Sat & Sun only.

[ryesteve]

As Dirty Harry might say: "I know what you're thinking. "Did he say six-to-one odds or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is the Pick 4, the most powerful wager in the world, and would change your life if you hit it, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, Patrick?"
Damn... I've gotta say, you're pretty much the best new poster around here since, like... ever! :ThmbUp:

[Floyd]

Okay here goes CD race 7-10 Pick 4


1,5,6,11/1,2,3/3,9,(11)/5,6,8,10


Economized , say the following


1,6/1,2,3/3,9/5,6




This is probally too quickly Handicapped, but let it ride and see...


Not responsible for major winners
Patrick

Oooh! Oooh! I feel like the annoying kid in class who has to answer every question first. I'll try to pre-backfit (see? I just made up a word) your race tomorrow. Tonight I'm breaking Rule #2 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52739&page=2) . Hey, what can I say (http://www.intowine.com/beaujolais2.html) ? But tomorrow! Oooh! Oooh!

[jonnielu]

Johnny Johnny Johnny :lol: :lol:



Some one will be able to point in the right direction, eventually.....


Patrick

Well Patrick, maybe in the meantime.....

How about a DD stepladder to the Pk4?

2 x 2 Doubles, for the 1st thru 6th, 3 DD's if you separate, 5 if you roll them.

With a 10 race card, if you are successful by the finish of the 6th, you can now decide whether you want to take an inclusive run on the Pk4, or take what you've got in hand, or play the P4 2 x 2.

It would all depend on how well you did with the earlier DD's.

A reasonable 2 x 2 DD strategy, might be to separate each field into two groups by odds. Top 4 ML is the primary group, and you know that these four will account for 65% of the wins today (my usual loose figures, tighten as you see fit). Take one horse from this group using the criteria you enjoy.

Group #2 would be those in the ML range of 6-1 to 15-1, drop the 20's and 30's, these will generally account for 30% of wins. Take one from this bunch using the criteria of you choice also.

If this doesn't get you to the 7th with enough bankroll to bet the P4 inclusively (at least 3 x 3 x 3 x 3), you might question your criteria.

If you are consistently being beat by a horse from either group that you consider and decide to drop, you need to find what is it, within your criteria that is causing you to do that. You are likely overrating or underrating something. Find the consistency in the results and you find the bad spot in your criteria.

Just my humble opinion, thrown into the pile for your consideration.

jdl

[Nets]

Oooh! Oooh! I feel like the annoying kid in class who has to answer every question first. I'll try to pre-backfit (see? I just made up a word) your race tomorrow. Tonight I'm breaking Rule #2 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52739&page=2) . Hey, what can I say (http://www.intowine.com/beaujolais2.html) ? But tomorrow! Oooh! Oooh!

:lol: :lol: :lol:

[Floyd]

I think jonnielu's got a good plan, a journey of a single step begins with a thousand miles.
But looking at the challenge as you've presented it, here's what it looks like to me.
I don't have time to handicap all these races, so I'm just going with your initial picks and see which of those I like to narrow down the field.

Race 7, #1, ML 4/1 I like #1 better than #6, but how much is it going to be bet down by post time?

Race 8, #1, ML 8/1 Again, I think #1's got it, might be nice overlay depending on the final odds.

Race 9, #9 ML 8/1 See? this is why I suck. #3 would be a sweet longshot but I don't think it's going to win this one, I'd bet it to show if I could, but I can't, which is good.

Race 10, #6 ML 9/2 I'm going with #6 on this one. Just for the jockey, not so much the horse. Maybe we could convince the jockey to run it by himself, see how that goes.

I always get nervous with the Maiden races, too much randomness for my fragile little psyche, and to have the hopes and dreams of the previous three races come down to a race with seven first timers would give me the vapors. If I'd hit the first three I'd have to cower in the corner sucking my thumb until the results of the last race came in. I just don't have the constitution for that sort of thing.
Anyway, my Bro-In-Law, who infected me with this equine virus, is in Vegas and is pestering me for picks,and I'm in a contest this week, so I can't give this as much thought right now as the topic deserves. Let's see how this goes and we'll talk later.

[pktruckdriver]

Now this post got away from already as I was only trying to get a few questions asked about where I might find some information concerning Pick 4's and then somehow getting them in report form, to have a go at studying them properly.

The following info and suggestions Please

With ADW's, hopefully we are assuming they will work things out soon with all parties and everyone will be back up on them soon, this we must assume, OK.

1st. What tracks offer Pick 4's and who offers, 2 Pick 4's a day?
1b. Takeouts too, please ( should be in DRF online )

2. Average pools and Payout's for those tracks offering Pick 4's
2b Broken down in various reports, per track to evaluate

3. If possible average players and average hit per Pick 4 Bets, per track

4. Average field size for these Pick 4 races, per track and per pick 4

5. Type of race used in the Pick 4, per track, MSW,Clm ,OC, NW1, etc...
5b Broken down in various reprots per track for further study

6. Average Race distance and surface, per track



Can we get some response on these possible reports, are they out there??

Thanks
Patrick

[Light]

5. Type of race used in the Pick 4, per track, MSW,Clm ,OC, NW1, etc...


That's the first question I ask myself. Just because It's a pk4 doesn't mean its hittable for the average Joe. By now you should know what your strengths and weaknesses are. Personally,I do not want to play a pk4 with something like a full field of Mdn 2yo's or 3YO's in it where half the starters have a race or 2 under their belt, maybe 1 or 2 on grass,and the other half with blue blood breeding. You're either going to wheel this race or pass the pk4.If you wheel it,that means cutting out contenders in the other legs and your chances of success dwindle.

Develop key races. Not in the Davidowitz sense,although that isn't bad either. Create a track/race type profile. For example you may notice certain types of races are won by your top 2 Speed Ratings more than other types of races.Your speed ratings may differ from the publics. The public may use only the last pace line,whereas you may use another PL you deem appropriate. You now have an edge over the public(or them over you if you did this step wrong) by keying on these type of races with those types of horses.

Don't think because a horse has one of the top speed ratings it will be chalk.Its a matter of how and what method you use to deduce their sr's. I have gotten longshot payouts with these type of horses.Actually one of my highest $2 mutuel was a horse who just won a 4k race and moved into 5k company at Mnr and clearly had the highest SR in the field out of his last race. He paid $105. I'm still flabbergasted.No Voodoo required. What could be more obvious?

In the last year I have gravitated to tracks with 50 cent pk4's. I've been more successful simply because I could afford to cover more horses. The problem is the pools are usually smaller,so payouts might be smaller too.But I have gotten some good payouts as well despite the small pools especially if you hit a shot. Sometimes its amazing at those smaller tracks as those players seem less sophisticated and more into chalk and ML favorites. Collecting on 3 out of 4 doesn't take much to happen there whereas it would never happen at the big boy tracks with similar payouts.

Lastly,you will never master this game. You have to constantly keep yourself honed or you will get dull. And even if you keep yourself honed you will run into many states of consciousness that alter how you see things and the races on a level level undetectable to yourself. In those cases,its a matter of recognizing the maya and regaining your clarity.Keeping notes help.

[applebee]

If I wanted to just hit the p4 156 10/3/11/all
IF I wanted the whole pool I would find a different p4.

[Light]

Well what did I just say? The first pk4 at Aqu paid $6334,thanks in part to two 2YO races. They just ran the 1st leg of the 2nd one a full field of 2yo maidens at 1 mile and the winner paid $65. This was a wheel race. The 6/5 favorite had the highest SR of 93(Bris fig) but that was w/1x Lasix. This race he was a major bounce candidate,ran 4th at 1-1. Interestingly,the winner had the 2nd highest SR. Like I said,they dont necessarily pay chalk.

[toetoe]

I just recognized Maya Angelou, and I'm torn between :( and :eek: .

Can you say poet laureate ? (:Afraid; very afraid.)

[Light]

I'll tell you who I'm afraid of. Rajiv M. on Turf. Just nailed my man Coa in the last with a $39 hoss. Another 2YO race. Late Pk4 paid $25k.

[pktruckdriver]

Did I do okay, I think not


Heard about deadheat in the 9th, I think that made me a loser, the 9th



Well i tried, it just shows how hard it really is.


As Light says I don't think you can Master it, but I am going to try, for lack of nothing else to do, and that it has not really been done before, is another good reason to try.


If I am lucky I will learn a whole lot along the way of this Journey into the Pick 4...

Seems the reports I seek are either not available or not easily given out, which means more work to get them thru digging and digging and sorting it out , till hopefully you make some type of order out of it all, and wham you got a few reports.




How bout this approach, then if you were assembling reports as I asked about earlier in this report, how would you begin going about aquiring them, putting the data together , from what sources, where would you store the data gathered, I guess knowledge of a spreadsheet is absolute with this journey, huh??

Would these reports be better gotten 1 track at a time, my thoughts would be yes, of course.

Would they be better obtained thru Bris, DRF, HDW, or some new data gathering services that I am not aware of???


The "Art of Notetaking 101", this may seem frivilous, but what is your favorite and easiest way to take notes, notes that you can actually use later, notes that are in some order, and usable too. This , believe it or not still kinda baffles me sometimes, as I think there must be a better way to do this, you ever feel that way, not laziness, mind you, but actually a better way to do what you're doing....

Well I have the next 20yrs or so to learn and study, I hope, and if I am doing thia , I just want to be able to make progress and try to do it the most effiecent way possible, does that make sense, hope so, as it still will take years of hard work, that is inevitable, as I do not know the future, and know no one who does, so that means work/study/test, just like a med student in year 3-6 all focus all the time, and to me that seems too intense, really it does , but what the heck, I might as well commit to something, my oother commitment, took me to the cleaners, so this I don't want to have happen twice, though horse playing has been known to take many players to the cleaners, but not as well as an ex-wife can, right???


Gotta go back later
Patrick

[jonnielu]

Okay here goes CD race 7-10 Pick 4


1,5,6,11/1,2,3/3,9,(11)/5,6,8,10

This is probally too quickly Handicapped, but let it ride and see...


Not responsible for major winners
Patrick

That is some pretty good pickin Patrick, it even shows an inclusive attitude, so you are getting somewhere. But, if there is one where you usually can get exclusive to an extent, it is the ninth.

52 5 92 5 144
53 11 91 1.2 144
51 9 90 8 141

Good job on the #9, #1 in the 8th, and #10 in the 10th show some good contrarian consideration.

jdl

P.S. Your quick handicapping is probably a strong point.

[proximity]

I guess knowledge of a spreadsheet is absolute with this journey, huh?? ........., I just want to be able to make progress and try to do it the most effiecent way possible,

pk,

i have posted about this before i think, but here it is again:

1. use your spreadsheet to normalize the morning lines (so they add up to 100, not 120+)

2. multiply the four normalized morning line percentages together to get an estimate of how the crowd will bet this combination. and then mulitply this number by 1+ the track's pick four takeout to get an estimate of what the "payout" odds percentage will be for this combination.

3. repeat the first part of step two for your own line's odds percentages (out of 100, but don't multiply by the take)

4. bet each combination for which the result of step 3 is greater than the result of step 2.

5. for starters, i'd just go with bets of $1 per combination...and at some tracks this will actually be overbetting for many combinations.

good luck!!

[sammy the sage]

the p-4 was too expensive w/last maiden....

but to red-board....to make a point...hit the doubles....and the DH was sweet as had covered both...

1st...if throwing out a short priced fav....AND THAT'S what I recommended....you spread...AND COLLECT...

2nd...as PREVIOUSLY stated...sometime's you CAN ONLY play the double or p-3...

3rd...some-one else recommended rolling double's for the whole card...WHY...you WANT TO BET...only when you HAVE THE advantage...anybody who bets the whole card is an OVER-ALL LOSER in this game...PERIOD!!!

4th...AGAIN...it's a risk vs reward...and knowing when a big fav. is going to not win...give's you a chance to take ADVANTAGE...you basically BUY the race...because the ODDS allow you to do so...you just have to be smart enough...to know WHEN/HOW...can't help you w/that...

Would make a political/economic/sports analogy here...to clarify...BUT big boss says I can't...

B.O.L.

[DanG]

I'll give you a race for 11/22...

Thorn Song 6/5 fav...9th...at church...SHOULD not win...BUT how to play...Ah...that's another question ENTIRELY...
.
Good call Sammy… :ThmbUp:

[8th at 5/2 and was the tote favorite]

[pktruckdriver]

Okay people we got away fromn this important post's main question's

how do we start this long journey, that many say can not be done, and they may be right and speaking from the heart when they say this, but I still want to try as I have nothing better to do, and a few , about 20 years too try it.....


Now this post got away from already as I was only trying to get a few questions asked about where I might find some information concerning Pick 4's and then somehow getting them in report form, to have a go at studying them properly.

The following info and suggestions Please

With ADW's, hopefully we are assuming they will work things out soon with all parties and everyone will be back up on them soon, this we must assume, OK.

1st. What tracks offer Pick 4's and who offers, 2 Pick 4's a day?
1b. Takeouts too, please ( should be in DRF online )

2. Average pools and Payout's for those tracks offering Pick 4's
2b Broken down in various reports, per track to evaluate

3. If possible average players and average hit per Pick 4 Bets, per track

4. Average field size for these Pick 4 races, per track and per pick 4

5. Type of race used in the Pick 4, per track, MSW,Clm ,OC, NW1, etc...
5b Broken down in various reprots per track for further study

6. Average Race distance and surface for pick 4 races , per track


THEN THERE WAS THIS INFORMATION REQUESTED TOO.......KINDA


How bout this approach, then if you were assembling reports as I asked about earlier in this post, how would you begin going about aquiring them, putting the data together , from what sources, where would you store the data gathered, I guess knowledge of a spreadsheet is absolute with this journey, huh??

Would these reports be better gotten 1 track at a time, my thoughts would be yes, of course.

Would they be better obtained thru Bris, DRF, HDW, or some new data gathering services that I am not aware of???


The "Art of Notetaking 101", this may seem frivilous, but what is your favorite and easiest way to take notes, notes that you can actually use later, notes that are in some order, and usable too. This , believe it or not still kinda baffles me sometimes, as I think there must be a better way to do this, you ever feel that way, not laziness, mind you, but actually a better way to do what you're doing....

Well I have the next 20yrs or so to learn and study, I hope, and if I am doing thia , I just want to be able to make progress and try to do it the most effiecent way possible, does that make sense, hope so, as it still will take years of hard work, that is inevitable, as I do not know the future, and know no one who does, so that means work/study/test, just like a med student in year 3-6 all focus all the time, and to me that seems too intense, really it does , but what the heck, I might as well commit to something, my oother commitment, took me to the cleaners, so this I don't want to have happen twice, though horse playing has been known to take many players to the cleaners, but not as well as an ex-wife can, right???


AND GETTING RESPONSES LIKE THIS WAS MY HOPE, THX PROXIMITY....


pk,

i have posted about this before i think, but here it is again:

1. use your spreadsheet to normalize the morning lines (so they add up to 100, not 120+)

2. multiply the four normalized morning line percentages together to get an estimate of how the crowd will bet this combination. and then mulitply this number by 1+ the track's pick four takeout to get an estimate of what the "payout" odds percentage will be for this combination.

3. repeat the first part of step two for your own line's odds percentages (out of 100, but don't multiply by the take)

4. bet each combination for which the result of step 3 is greater than the result of step 2.

5. for starters, i'd just go with bets of $1 per combination...and at some tracks this will actually be overbetting for many combinations.

good luck!!



So what do you say ,Any ideas about this gathering and assimilating this info, better known as data, to find answers to what I am looking for, please.


Thank you
Patrick

[ranchwest]

I think the P4 is at least as much about constructing a ticket as it is picking horses.

Let's get honest here. We elevate our opinion of our own abilities well beyond what is reasonable. The chances of singling 4 horses for a big payout P4 are about slim and none for most of us.

In fact, we have a P4 contest here every year with $200 (paper) picks and even with a $200 ticket there's usually not many winners on any given P4.

So, just picking winners is not enough. It is usually necessary to construct a ticket with some "analytical certainty" and some "educated luck".

My suggestion is that you practice P4's and find what is working for you. Over time, develop that into a generalized strategy. Whatever your strategy, keep SOME consistency and SOME flexibility. That'd be my best suggestion.

Good luck.

[sammy the sage]

all this DETAILED info wanted...yet the man CANNOT even give a STRAIGHT answer on NFL football points vs moneyline bets he makes... :rolleyes:

which leads me to believe..........................

[pktruckdriver]

This has what to do with this post, nothing


all this DETAILED info wanted...yet the man CANNOT even give a STRAIGHT answer on NFL football points vs moneyline bets he makes... :rolleyes:

which leads me to believe..........................

[applebee]

Well we all must start from the beginning, so I too will try this, from the beginning, I hope.

To become the Pick 4 Master, one must study and learn and learn and study some more and even still some long long hours behind the machine, tapping away till the wee hours of the morning, and even then one may be just touching the surface of Mastering the Pick 4, but I will make an attempt to do so.

Bold statement for a beginner, I know, but my tools are being assembled and my required reading and possible study groups, (well at least 1 group I did not apparently qualify for), but a few others I have been particapating in, and wish to continue with the learning process, until I feel competent enough to call my self a Pick4 Master, in about 5-10 years or so, maybe longer, but I am now laying down my lofty Goal in front this here board, today Nov, 21 2008......


Now what would qualify one as a Pick 4 Master?

Let us decide that , if we can here in this post?

Would a hit rate of say 25% be good enough, or must it be higher?

Must he/she be proficeint at more than 1 track or circuit?

Must he/she win a few Pick 4 Tourneys to qualify as a Master?

Would being able to play with 2 singles each Pick 4 qualify him?

Never playing more than 50.00 on any 2.00 Pick 4 play.

Or must he just be lucky enough to find someone to call him Master?



Now this post got away from already as I was only trying to get a few questions asked about where I might find some information concerning Pick 4's and then somehow getting them in report form, to have a go at studying them properly.

The following info and suggestions Please

With ADW's, hopefully we are assuming they will work things out soon with all parties and everyone will be back up on them soon, this we must assume, OK.

1st. What tracks offer Pick 4's and who offers, 2 Pick 4's a day?
1b. Takeouts too, please ( should be in DRF online )

2. Average pools and Payout's for those tracks offering Pick 4's
2b Broken down in various reports, per track to evaluate

3. If possible average players and average hit per Pick 4 Bets, per track

4. Average field size for these Pick 4 races, per track and per pick 4

5. Type of race used in the Pick 4, per track, MSW,Clm ,OC, NW1, etc...
5b Broken down in various reprots per track for further study

6. Average Race distance and surface, per track


There were a few more but I must go now, gotta head to Yuma, Az for Monday-Wensday unloading times, then north to the Biggest Little Town for Turkey Day, and back to Az that Friday, after that who knows....



Take Care
Good Luck
Patrick

Question 1 is pretty much answered by googling racetrack takeout.

The rest of the questions will probably be best answered by looking at result charts (free) and assembling your own reports.

And this might be of interest especially the last paragraph.
http://www.drf.com/misc/exotic_excerpt.pdf

[Steve 'StatMan']

PA added the Pick 4 contest back to the Contest Forum.

Look for The Ridersup Memorial Aqueduct Inner Track Challenge.

No need to enter, just make selections for ONLY ONE of the TWO Pick 4's. on Sat & Sun during the inner dirt meet. You can bet up to $200 (you're better off using all $200 for contest purposes.) Be sure to specify "Early" or "Late"! No penalty for missing any days, but since score is kept by money won, not amount of profit or or loss, so the more days you put in selections, the better your chances.

[raybo]

I'm not a pick 4 player, I play only supers, however, having played them for quite some time I have come to realize some things that should be applicable to any of the exotics.

1. Coverage is key. The right coverage is usually determined by the number of contenders and the possible payout if you hit.

2. False favorites, especially if they are very low priced favorites, enable you to add more coverage due to the very real possibility of cashing a ticket at a huge payout.

3. You gotta have the winner, no matter the price, to stay alive in cashing the ticket.

4. Ticket cost must be kept inline with the estimated payout. There must be value for your investment or it's just not a smart wager.

I could go on but these are key.

All this adds up to one important subject. How well do you handicap?

Along that line of thought, how well do you select winners, how well do you determine all the contenders, how well do you determine non-contenders, and how well do you determine false favorites?

Jumping off into the exotics, without first paying your dues in the less complicated wager types, can be/will be harrowing, to say the least. If you are going to do it anyway, I suggest you play with Monopoly money for quite some time first (I played supers "on paper" for the largest part of 20 years before jumping in with both feet). Keep very good records. And, then, if, after many wagers, you are holding your own, or better, GO FOR IT!

[proximity]

pk,

i have posted about this before i think, but here it is again:

1. use your spreadsheet to normalize the morning lines (so they add up to 100, not 120+)

2. multiply the four normalized morning line percentages together to get an estimate of how the crowd will bet this combination. and then mulitply this number by 1+ the track's pick four takeout to get an estimate of what the "payout" odds percentage will be for this combination.

3. repeat the first part of step two for your own line's odds percentages (out of 100, but don't multiply by the take)

4. bet each combination for which the result of step 3 is greater than the result of step 2.

5. for starters, i'd just go with bets of $1 per combination...and at some tracks this will actually be overbetting for many combinations.

good luck!!


i forgot to mention in step 2 of my previous post (for linemakers) that it might also be a good idea to multiply by an additional amount (say 1.4) to give ourselves a little room for error and obviously you could subtract from the takeout any rebate that you are getting......

[jonnielu]

I'm not a pick 4 player, I play only supers, however, having played them for quite some time I have come to realize some things that should be applicable to any of the exotics.

1. Coverage is key. The right coverage is usually determined by the number of contenders and the possible payout if you hit.

2. False favorites, especially if they are very low priced favorites, enable you to add more coverage due to the very real possibility of cashing a ticket at a huge payout.

3. You gotta have the winner, no matter the price, to stay alive in cashing the ticket.

4. Ticket cost must be kept inline with the estimated payout. There must be value for your investment or it's just not a smart wager.

I could go on but these are key.

All this adds up to one important subject. How well do you handicap?

Along that line of thought, how well do you select winners, how well do you determine all the contenders, how well do you determine non-contenders, and how well do you determine false favorites?

Jumping off into the exotics, without first paying your dues in the less complicated wager types, can be/will be harrowing, to say the least. If you are going to do it anyway, I suggest you play with Monopoly money for quite some time first (I played supers "on paper" for the largest part of 20 years before jumping in with both feet). Keep very good records. And, then, if, after many wagers, you are holding your own, or better, GO FOR IT!

This is really good stuff, your take on the race is the root of every betting decision you will make.

jdl

[Dr Win]

real pick 4 "pro" by Dr Win

[Bluesthestandard]

My Pick 4 tonight at Los Alamitos follows two of the principles i have seen posted tonight which is "Coverage is key" and "False Favorites". My 1st and 2nd Pick 4's are under the "Selections" thread for Los Al.

I felt the chalk horses tonight were and are beatable tonight.

2nd Pick 4 will start in a few minutes and i covered

6x3x3x3=$162 for $1 ticket

[Mineshaft]

Los Al is so chalky i dont like Pick 4's there. But if you get one longshot to come in man its pays out nice.


I did play the early Pick 4 and only hit 2 of 4

4x6x5x2=$240

[Bluesthestandard]

One the 1st pick 4 tonight i was alive to the 4,9 and the 9 bolted right and ran 2nd by a 1/2 and cost me 460.00 tonight at Los Al. Got the 2nd late pick 4 started off with a another Bomb $31....maybe i can hit this one