Underrated Factors

[SMOO]

Things like speed ratings, class & jockey seem to get a lot of attention from the public.

In your opinion, what are the most underrated factors in making profits at the races?

[stu]

Stamina, Speed, and Soundness.

[cj]

Trips, but not in the form of obvious trouble.

The break.

[DanG]

• Not knowing what circuit fits your strengths.
• Not knowing what bet type fits your strengths / budget.
• Fitness / or lack there of.
• If the time required is available; studying tape.
• Not keeping betting records.
• Rest / race spacing
• Projecting upside in young animals
• Projecting decline in mature animals.
• Applying similar methods to different surfaces, distances, class and ages.
• Underestimating how quickly a sharp horse can unravel in a poor barn (and vice a versa)
• Overestimating the collective opinion of the public when weighed against the rake and breakage.
• Allowing all the negative baggage that comes with our game to beat you down into a defeatist attitude.

That last one plays more of a role then we will ever want to admit. Each bad result etc is catalogued and internalized, where we often don’t dwell on our good fortune. This was VERY hard for me to learn, because I strive for perfection in a game where failure is common.

Stay true to your core values and don’t let all the negative (well; this angle beat me yesterday and I remember when this rider went brain dead etc…) creep into your subconscious.

• In closing: The most overrated (disappointing) aspect in our game is expecting Magna to answer racing correspondence. :D

[scgmhawk]

1. Creating or purchasing a valid oddsline so that you can spot overlays.
2. Structuring your bets properly to capitalize on your selection(s) -- my biggest area of opportunity that I am constantly working at!

[cnollfan]

Horses with the best figures get bet heavily 99% of the time (War Emblem in the Kentucky Derby aside). Recognizing for whatever reasons the times when a big recent figure is unlikely to be repeated, or when a poor recent figure will be improved on.

[completebill]

CJ is absolutely correct in mentioning the BREAK. You can actually quantify the relative breaking abilities from the break call info in the PP's. Back when early speed was still underrated, I actually had a simple little "system" which included Quirin speed points, Need-to lead, AND the break call rating I developed.

Another underrated factor, particularly for FTS s and layoff horses is work VOLUME per unit of time.

[RaceBookJoe]

Probably the physicality factor...does the horse look good or not, very subjective because 2 people may see 2 different things. Seems like a lot of work because you have to know each horse. I remember last year at saratoga I had a horse I liked, went to the paddock to see him, saw him walking with what i thought was a limp. Decided not to bet him only to watch him run 2nd and key a nice exacta that I also had tossed. :bang:

[DeanT]

• Projecting upside in young animals
• Projecting decline in mature animals.


Alert: ASKING FOR FREE HANDICAPPING ADVICE:D

What do you do with those Dan, without telling me and having to kill me :)

[DanG]

Alert: ASKING FOR FREE HANDICAPPING ADVICE:D

What do you do with those Dan, without telling me and having to kill me :)
As you know from owning; the mature animal is tricky Dean;

After most animal’s 15-20th race or so; I view every block of 10 races as a function of attrition. Taking away the move up trainers and such; I view new tops, slight unwillingness to break or negotiate traffic etc with a very cynical eye if the horse has many miles on his tires.

For the most part; peaks are established and when you look at retired thoroughbreds in large groups most careers form a bell curve. I try and visualize what this animal career will look like when he is done racing and project where he is in that inevitable bell curve.

Young horses are a combination of…

• Subjective visual clues. (Such as improved focus, gallop out)
• Body type / fluid action that screams upside.
• HTR’s excellent pedigree rating.
• A “light” going on in morning endurance drills. (HTR’s fitness / workout rating)
• The connections gaining confidence in spotting.
• The connections show a history of gradual education.
• If you have access to good late pace ratings they are a very significant clue of future potential.
• Tracking stakes nominations of young animals can sometimes provide tells.

These things are hard for me to articulate to be honest. I’m big on first impressions so I do jump the gun and pigeon hole animals early in their lives. It’s a constant tug of war between what is contributing to development and what is breaking them down physically.

How’s that for some mixed signals Dean; :D sorry about that. :blush:

[LottaKash]

Hidden or or Obscure moves within the running line, especially when used in conjunction with a hidden or underutilized internal fraction(s)......That is where the Gold is hidden for me....:jump:

Also, after many years of viewing the past perfomances and the running lines contained in them, I have noticed when a particular running line looks abnormal or even stupid looking when compared to the usual pacelines, it is often a sure-fire -sign for me to investigate further....I have not kept any records to this effect, but just off the top of my head and my results in spotting and using it, often enough it usually points to a willing contender, especialy when combined with a hot or unusual race fraction within the same race, and this takes on an even more signifcant meaning, when the race is full of weakly-formed wannabee winners......

best,

[Norm]

The "pecking order" that horses have established among themselves is seriously underrated. It's the essence of Class handicapping. Horses are social creatures that run in herds. They have made social decisions about who should run where and the pecking order is seldom violated. Only when two animals both consider themselves "head honcho" do you see a real horserace. The best possible viewing example of that situation is the 1962 Travers (available on YouTube) where two horses, absolutely unafraid of each other, had a go at it. In every-day racing you see occasional battles, but mostly the socially correct pecking order is maintained.

Class handicapping is the art of finding valid reasons for changes in the social order. If horse 'A' always beats horse 'B', what circumstances would it take to reverse that order ?

[SMOO]

If horse 'A' always beats horse 'B', what circumstances would it take to reverse that order ?
So with Affirmed/Allydar I wasted money boxing them! :bang:

[cmoore]

Sires
Workouts
Race Ratings
Running Lines

[dav4463]

Bet structure.

[Tom Barrister]

Non published (not appearing in the various "forms") trainer intent.

[DeanT]

As you know from owning; the mature animal is tricky Dean;

After most animal’s 15-20th race or so; I view every block of 10 races as a function of attrition. Taking away the move up trainers and such; I view new tops, slight unwillingness to break or negotiate traffic etc with a very cynical eye if the horse has many miles on his tires.

For the most part; peaks are established and when you look at retired thoroughbreds in large groups most careers form a bell curve. I try and visualize what this animal career will look like when he is done racing and project where he is in that inevitable bell curve.

Young horses are a combination of…

• Subjective visual clues. (Such as improved focus, gallop out)
• Body type / fluid action that screams upside.
• HTR’s excellent pedigree rating.
• A “light” going on in morning endurance drills. (HTR’s fitness / workout rating)
• The connections gaining confidence in spotting.
• The connections show a history of gradual education.
• If you have access to good late pace ratings they are a very significant clue of future potential.
• Tracking stakes nominations of young animals can sometimes provide tells.

These things are hard for me to articulate to be honest. I’m big on first impressions so I do jump the gun and pigeon hole animals early in their lives. It’s a constant tug of war between what is contributing to development and what is breaking them down physically.

How’s that for some mixed signals Dean; :D sorry about that. :blush:
Very nice Dan. Thank you.

- in handicapping books we are taught to look for maidens or young ones who show a flash of early speed in the first out. I see here that you list late pace as a good precursor. That is interesting to me. I have a database and am going to look at that a little closer.

- I do see some correlation on a workout type score for 2nd or third time starters in MSW's. Good to know I was on the right track in making a model for this. Ill get the bit between my teeth on that.

Thanks for giving me a few more things to look more closely at.

[DanG]

- in handicapping books we are taught to look for maidens or young ones who show a flash of early speed in the first out. I see here that you list late pace as a good precursor. That is interesting to me. I have a database and am going to look at that a little closer.
It is still viable Dean imho; it’s a little too visible on the major circuits and is played accordingly. Especially if it’s a sustained run with a clean break that is measurable. A short 1/16th of a mile burst (trip observation) is still a value move.

[Floyd]

Discipline, followed by discipline with discipline and a little discipline on the side.
Did I mention discipline?

Discipline: Know your strengths and make your investments accordingly. Got a losing record on a given track? (You keep records, right?) Every dollar sent to that track is a bet, not an investment. You make a wager on a track where you don't have a winning ROI, you're betting.

Discipline: Sitting around the house, gettin' a little loopy on your drug of choice and playing the ponies is no way to make a profit in this game, son.

Discipline: Doing the work, handicapping the race then checking the forum to see what everybody else thinks before you make your investment is a sure-fire way to lose your bank. Make your picks and make your bet. After the race is run is the time to see what you might have missed, but second guessing based on somebodys' calls on a random web site is a sure fire way to lose your bank and go crazy in the process.

Discipline: You need to spend at least as much time researching the game as you do playing it, learn probability theory, learn what everybody else is doing, learn what everybody used to do and what they think works now. Read up on the acknowledged experts in the field, pay attention to the discussions on this forum and others and learn, learn, learn.

Discipline: Having a bad day? On a losing streak? Stop investing. Since you're keeping records you know that your method works, right? You're keeping records, aren't you? The nice thing about horse racing is that you can play on paper. Play on paper 'til you start winning again. If you don't start winning after a week it's time to try something new.

Discipline: Change one angle at a time. Don't scrap your whole method just because your ROI has dropped, check your records, research other angles, make subtle changes, check your records or your database if you have one and tweak your method. Then play on paper to see how it works.

Discipline: Structure your investments to maximize your profits. Learn the most efficient way to make your investment by carefully structuring your wagers.

That's a start. I've only been doing this for two years, ever since I walked into Canterbury with my Bro-in-law and niece and nephew and a hundred dollars and walked out having fed us all and a hundred seventeen dollars in my pocket. A little more research and I realized that this game can be beat. Consistently. I'm still learning, and I've learned each and every one of these lessons the hard way, but I now know that my initial assessment was valid, I can achieve a positive ROI if I'm disciplined and view each wager as an investment.

I gotta go. It's 2 minutes to post at Charles Town.

[DanG]

Discipline: ***Sitting around the house, gettin' a little loopy on your drug of choice and playing the ponies is no way to make a profit in this game, son.

That's a start. I've only been doing this for two years, ever since I walked into Canterbury with my Bro-in-law and niece and nephew and a hundred dollars and walked out having fed us all and a hundred seventeen dollars in my pocket. A little more research and I realized that this game can be beat. Consistently. I'm still learning, and I've learned each and every one of these lessons the hard way, but I now know that my initial assessment was valid, I can achieve a positive ROI if I'm disciplined and view each wager as an investment.

***Now you tell me Floyd…LOL :D

Seriously; good stuff! :ThmbUp:

[Overlay]

1. Creating or purchasing a valid oddsline so that you can spot overlays.
2. Structuring your bets properly to capitalize on your selection(s) -- my biggest area of opportunity that I am constantly working at!

Beat me to it. (Darn that day job!)

[brdman12]

passing races and waiting for a better opportunity

[Jeff P]

Floyd,

Sharp Post!

-jp

.

[nobeyerspls]

Surface preference among all conditions for dirt, poly (including track maintenance), and all conditions for turf.