Saturday's "Longshots" 11/15

[Ray2000]

5 longshots for sloppy saturday 11/15

ML>7, Betting Win, Str Tri, and Exacta 3 Horse Box

Balmoral R11........124 Bagel Man 8/1 Tyson L 10/1 Special Joe 4/1
good TM Class & Speed, good trainer, not that much of a step up

Georgian R10........627 April Rustler 8/1 Courtside 20/1 Surf La 2/1
the 4 (3/1) gets top Georgian driver, has best TM S&C but has a strange history
High finishes at Mohawk in 22K claimers then shows up at Windsor for 7.5K? loses and gets claimed
Wonder what the betting public will do with this one

Woodbine R12........687 Albert Town 8/1 Kindly Poet 4/1 Tuck 9/2
I like Albert's last 2 races especially the 26.9 4th Q on Nov 2, Golden "6 post" tonight

Yonkers R6..........213 Smart Blazer N 8/1 Friday Nite Lights 10/1 Armbro Animate 5/1
The 1 trying for 3 in a row against tougher foes is too hard,
the 2 can upset, the 6 is my ticket killer

Yonkers R8..........352 Tasmanian Daniel 8/1 Rock N Roll Star 3/1 Forest Vic A 4/1
Should be a sloppy night, See if front end is holding up, if so the 3 has good off track
performance numbers and should cut the mile

Good Luck To All!

[Ray2000]

-$15 bad weather at eastern tracks
Roller coaster car going down...:)

Balmoral R11........281 no hit
Georgian R10......................Cancelled
Woodbine R12........845 no hit
Yonkers R6..........265 Winner. $9.00...front runner from half
Yonkers R8..........321 Winner $11.00.........Exacta $29.00.....wire to wire
....10 of 13 races front end speed won or 2nd by a head or less and the crowd knew it.


Win Bets $8 in, $20 back
Exactas $48 in, $29 back
Trifectas $8 loss

[mrroyboy]

Ray I noticed when your picks get bet down they usually do well. Do you think that is smart money or what?

[Ray2000]

mrroyboy

Hard to say, Roy. My picks here have the Morning Line > 7 and sometimes the pick really is a longshot and will have (hopefully) around a 10% win chance. But other times the Morning Line on my pick is just plain wrong and should be 5/2 or 3/1, and have more like a 25-30% win chance. This makes it look like these picks are winning more than they should but it's actually pretty close to their actual chance. The crowd is pretty good at spotting these bad Morning Lines, and usually bets them down.

So I don't think it's smart money, and I'm just a $2 bettor on win bets, so it's not me:).

Best of luck..