Quality or quantity

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

Had a discussion with a sports bettor the other day who places one sports bet per day with a win percentage of 64% as an average with records dating back over nine years. This is a man who works very hard in his analysis especially the task of narrowing down his analysis to the one play per day rule.

When I asked him why the one bet per day rule he said "it was much easier to be correct one time per day as opposed to more than once." He was able to concentrate all his work on one target as opposed to two equations on a given day. Very disciplined approach.

I asked the gentleman why not wait for a few days or a week and play only the real select games. He said that approach does not work for him because there is a noticeable increase in the pressure to qualify the outstanding selections as oppsed to the daily best of the best high percentage qualifier.

In horseplaying we look for a proven edge and look to maximize the edge with as many chances in a given day that offer the edge. However this man is battling a vigorish and the psychological factors that keep his wagering in full control...everyday he comes to the table with the same risk factor as opposed to making one days wagering more important than any other days wagering.

This man really (IMO) has a real businesslike approach to gambling.

Zappi

[HUSKER55]

If nothing else he know his weakness and has found a successful way around it. IMHO everybody has to do that to succede

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

I agree Husker. Every player must reduce their own individual stress factors that can disrupt the confidence levels neded for successful long term success.

[Overlay]

I'm not arguing with what works best for any individual. But, to me, the same logic that this man used to bet once per day as opposed to less often could be extended to those who choose to bet many times per day. They have a style of play that provides them with an edge, and the more they "churn" that edge, the more they make, and the less pressure there is on any single wager.

Another factor that helps me in that regard is relying on quantitative data rather than subjective judgment, in order to keep my handicapping as uniform as possible, and to allow a clearer picture of what changes might need to be made if actual results start varying significantly from what I expect.

(Of course, there are differences between betting on sports versus races that have to be taken into account, also.)

[DeanT]

Wow, that is an amazing hit rate. If I had a rate that was so many SD's above the mean I would want to play more, no question. He could make money at anything over 53% more than likely.

To each their own, however, and only the bankroll knows best.