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View Full Version : NTRA handicapping challenge. 10 million dollar purse.


Imriledup
11-14-2008, 12:14 PM
I was watching the WSOP on ESPN last night and some 22 year old won 9 million bucks.

Which got me to thinking.....if the NTRA Handicapping Challenge that takes place every January in Vegas were to have a 10 million dollar winner take all pot and that was televised in the same way as the Poker championships were televised, would that make you tune in?

I actually think that the prize of 1 million is not enough. They need 10 million to create the buzz and they need this on tv ala WSOP.

Poker has it right. They market attractive ladies and 22 year old men and show them winning boatloads of money which gets the average Joe like you or me to say, "geez, poker must be easy if women and 22 year old men are consistently winning"

We need the masses to think that racing is beatable. With hot women wearing Full Tilt poker hats and sweeping in big pots, there's no way you can think that Poker isn't at least beatable.

Racing needs an image branding to young people and the start of that would be to create a buzz about a 10 million dollar contest in Vegas. That's a start.

DeltaLover
11-14-2008, 01:16 PM
The real issue though, is that poker is truly beatable and there are scores of professional players making a consistent profit out of it.

Horse racing on the other hand appears to be impossible to beat due to its insider information, huge rake, drugs and fixed races. People seem to realize it. It takes a very ignorant mind to believe that he can really make it playing this game...

In top of all these, we can add the fact that while casinos are doing their best to lure new customers in their poker rooms, providing combs and other promotions, the racing industry appears to be very stingy and bettor unfriendly.

Pace Cap'n
11-14-2008, 04:40 PM
Poker can get 8,000 people to buy in for $10,000 each to fund that 9mil payout. Think we could get that many handicappers to pony up 10g's?

rrbauer
11-14-2008, 04:52 PM
Poker can get 8,000 people to buy in for $10,000 each to fund that 9mil payout. Think we could get that many handicappers to pony up 10g's?

Nope. They would get all hung up over not having free PP's.

boomman
11-14-2008, 05:04 PM
Count me in!!;)

Boomer

cnollfan
11-14-2008, 05:32 PM
I'll play too.

Imriledup
11-14-2008, 05:58 PM
The real issue though, is that poker is truly beatable and there are scores of professional players making a consistent profit out of it.

Horse racing on the other hand appears to be impossible to beat due to its insider information, huge rake, drugs and fixed races. People seem to realize it. It takes a very ignorant mind to believe that he can really make it playing this game...

In top of all these, we can add the fact that while casinos are doing their best to lure new customers in their poker rooms, providing combs and other promotions, the racing industry appears to be very stingy and bettor unfriendly.

Both games are equally hard to beat, its just that poker gives off this impression that anyone can do it with a little luck and a cool pair of sunglasses.

the little guy
11-14-2008, 07:34 PM
The real issue though, is that poker is truly beatable and there are scores of professional players making a consistent profit out of it.

Horse racing on the other hand appears to be impossible to beat due to its insider information, huge rake, drugs and fixed races. People seem to realize it. It takes a very ignorant mind to believe that he can really make it playing this game...

In top of all these, we can add the fact that while casinos are doing their best to lure new customers in their poker rooms, providing combs and other promotions, the racing industry appears to be very stingy and bettor unfriendly.


Poker, like horse racing, is a zero sum game. The takeout is lower, but considering the number of hands played, the weaker player can actually go broke faster. Simply put, your analagy doesn't hold up.

When you refer to insider information are you taking into account the plethora of inside information that turns out to be losing information?

On fixed races.....please enlighten us. I need to know where these are being run, who is arranging them, and how you know about it. Now, we all know that on-line poker is beyond reproach......and apparently you know about rampant race fixing. I am eager to learn.

I do, however, love the comb idea. The comb giveaway at Saratoga next summer is going to be a huge hit. I am missing something....right?

rrpic6
11-14-2008, 08:02 PM
Its possible to have a WSOP-type handicapping contest that could bypass the alleged cheating and doping problems. The set-up would have to be a radical change from the contests now in place.

I suggest a similar poker round-table of 10 players. Using your buy-in money, which is turned into chips, each 10 player table is given 60 minutes worth of wagers from any tracks simulcasting during that period. Players make any bets taken at the host tracks, WPS,EX,TRI,SUPER...but no DD or PICK 3's etc. After 60 minutes, the top 5 at each table move on, the other 5 are out. The next round you might just eliminate 3 or 4 of the 10. The final table of 10 would be like the WSOP. You could have all day betting, no holds barred. Any bets go. You would keep your "chips" accumulated from each round and fire away. Who knows how the winner would get to be the top chip person. A Pick 6 winner? Someone "let it ride" on win bets? Straight Tri or Super bets? Any feedback or brainstorming on how this could happen?

RR

Zman179
11-14-2008, 08:39 PM
Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:

Yorker
11-14-2008, 09:14 PM
I do, however, love the comb idea. The comb giveaway at Saratoga next summer is going to be a huge hit. I am missing something....right?

Nothing wrong with looking good while losing money. Seriously though, I think he meant comps.

the little guy
11-14-2008, 09:56 PM
Nothing wrong with looking good while losing money. Seriously though, I think he meant comps.


Thanks. That's funny....I probably should have been able to figure that out.

Valuist
11-14-2008, 11:02 PM
Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:

Watching somebody else play cards isn't much higher on the excitement ladder.

cj's dad
11-14-2008, 11:03 PM
And yeah, watching others play poker is really exciting too;
especially when you see the others hole cards.:lol: :D :faint:



Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:

Robert Fischer
11-15-2008, 01:50 AM
Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:
How about a prime time horseplaying game show every week?

three races , scheduled for that purpose 8:00pm EST ?

1st week only!!-3 Players; crist , dahlman, fischer... Play on tv with a show sponsered bankroll of $10,000(this number could increase with success).

$$$$ heres the catch:
You create a regular full service ADW/Call-a-Bet because of the show.
HOME VIEWERS can deposit or transfer funds of $10 to enter game-mode.
Game-mode home viewers compete for the following=
prior to 3rd race , top 10 home viewers shown on tv.
EACH WEEK WINNER STAYS ON TV TOP 2 ELIGABLE HOME PLAYERS REPLACE THE 2 LOSERS THE FOLLOWING WEEK images/UBGX/05.gif Goose-eggs are all sent home!

host track runs specially scheduled primetime races (just those 3 if need be) with Beer and Automobile ads on the safety rails and saddle cloths.

The show would pay for itself between ADW funds and sponsor advertisement Which would be pumped on the home players and racing fans constantly during the half hour show. :D
Of course it would be wildly popular with home players getting to "easily" win a trip to the show or get their names listed on tv.

It would add 50,000 new horseplayers, create a new profitable ADW, establish horseracing gambling as a viable television market, and pump at least 30,000 into the pools for those 3 races.

announcer (if not a original panel player) would have to be Serling. He could give a rundown of the field and then following the race interview the contestants with condescending humor:lol:


this is half a joke , but you have to be creative to sell the game.

CincyHorseplayer
11-15-2008, 04:22 AM
Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:

Watching a horse race develop and then turn for home and make the last run from the 16th pole IS a hell of a lot more exciting than listening to a bunch of mouths and seeing cards turn over.That's why I love this game!!

I play cards in my spare time,mainly when I feel like getting drunk and being a jerk!They love me down there,for real:lol:

But seriously,if they made a show where they were flipping from handicapper to handicapper and instead of showing hole cards,he or she was giving an assessment of a race or races and then they panned to races,and bounced between big wins and big beats,it would be just as exciting to watch if not moreso.

RichieP
11-15-2008, 04:26 AM
But seriously,if they made a show where they were flipping from handicapper to handicapper,he or she was giving an assessment of a race or races and then they panned to races,and bounced between big wins and big beats,it would be just as exciting to watch if not more so.

The old "Thrill of Victory/Agony of Defeat" action :)

Very cool idea Cincy! :ThmbUp::ThmbUp:

cmoore
11-15-2008, 07:38 AM
All the so called pros might not want to play in a big handicapping tourney that's televised..It might show there weaknesses and cut into there book/software selling money..:D

boomman
11-15-2008, 10:42 AM
All the so called pros might not want to play in a big handicapping tourney that's televised..It might show there weaknesses and cut into there book/software selling money..:D

moore: You might be right about some, but notice I was first to volunteer to play, and I'm not looking for someone else to put my entry fee up either! Some great TV show ideas here, let's get to work on 'em;)

Boomer

DanG
11-15-2008, 11:04 AM
All the so called pros might not want to play in a big handicapping tourney that's televised..It might show there weaknesses and cut into there book/software selling money..:D
Maybe you’re being flip here CM; but in case not…

It’s often just the opposite.

Check the tournament rosters; Ken Massa (HTR) / Jerry Brown (TG) / Len Friedman (Rags) come to mind immediately as people who have played without a beard representing them.

For the life of me I can’t figure out the borderline resentment of people selling information. I have a feeling the investment team for Berkshire Hathaway that assembles their newsletter has some personal action on the side.

toetoe
11-15-2008, 01:16 PM
The real issue though, is that poker is truly beatable and there are scores of professional players making a consistent profit out of it.

Horse racing on the other hand appears to be impossible to beat due to its insider information, huge rake, drugs and fixed races. People seem to realize it. It takes a very ignorant mind to believe that he can really make it playing this game...

In top of all these, we can add the fact that while casinos are doing their best to lure new customers in their poker rooms, providing combs and other promotions, the racing industry appears to be very stingy and bettor unfriendly.

I'll cop to being ignorant, but VERY ignorant ? Suh, you shouldn't of ought to of wrote that about me. :D

DeltaLover
11-17-2008, 01:16 PM
the little guy said:
Poker, like horse racing, is a zero sum game

That's not true....

Zero sum game do not exist in reality, since all games offered by casinos, race tracks, lottery etc have take out...

In the theoretical case where we can roll a dice with our friends without any take out, then yes we have a zero sum game...

But, in a game like horse racing EVEN if we had no take out at all, even in this case, the game would never had been zero sum.... The reason is of cource that the betting public has to compete against the game's INSIDERS which means that most of the important information is hidden and known only to the connections of the race. In the real world, we not only have the insider information, but unfortunately we have to fight against the huge rake witch makes this game UNBEATABLE.

Please never again think about horse racing as zero sum...

As far as poker goes, it is not a zero sum game, since we have to pay rake to the house. But since it is a game based in skill rather than luck, the better players in the game will end up winners proportionally to their skill edge (if all the players are skilled equally, then they will all have negative expectations since they all have to pay rake)

Somebody cannot make the same arguments for a game like baccarat or roulette that require NO SKILL and are only luck dependent... In these games ALL the players, no matter what system, money management or betting scheme will end up loosing based in the house advantage.

DanG
11-17-2008, 01:42 PM
Please never again think about horse racing as zero sum...

Got it…

• “Racing is unbeatable” / except for those I know personally.
• “Only the all powerful 'insiders' profit from the game”. Yes a personal favorite; I’ve spent time on the backside; while I have the utmost respect for the profession and their dedication / as group top players are light years ahead of most “insiders” in terms of gambling.
• “Poker is based upon skill rather then luck” I assume that means the racing starting gate is now a roulette wheel. Well; I realize that making your straight on the river is pure skill; but at least give the track gambler who works 16 hour days just a little credit.

When I first started participating in this forum I would go to great lengths to discuss a post like yours. I view it as personal progress that I limit and sensor my response. I would like to thank you for these observations because evidently people I know personally don’t really exist. When I awake from this alternate reality I will join in your crusade against all things you aren’t capable of.

DeltaLover
11-17-2008, 02:09 PM
the little guy

On fixed races.....please enlighten us. I need to know where these are being run, who is arranging them, and how you know about it. Now, we all know that on-line poker is beyond reproach......and apparently you know about rampant race fixing. I am eager to learn.


Anyone who has some involvment with horse racing, can inform you that among the instructions a jockey receives about his mount, could very well be, the trainers request to 'take his horse easy'...

In most of the cases this means that for that day the horse's connections simply want to hide their horse's ability preparing an upset for one of his coming races. Truth is that the really great jockeys are those who can loose by nose although showing to the race viewers that they did their best effort.... Do not doubt this...

Another pretty significant way of fixing a race is simply using modern chemistry. We have a pretty extensive array of 'great' trainers who had their licences supsended for using this type of race fixing... Lake Scott, Biancone, Pletset, Asmussen, Richy Dutrow and Allen Jerkens are among the 'big' names that are proven to use this method with great success.

The adaption of Bounce Theory, preached by Ragozin, Brown and their followers is a great excuse used in modern horse racing for favorites that failed to deliver, burning millions of betting dollars that the naive horse player risked in a predeternmined failure....

Did you watch yesterday's third race at Aquduct? It is the second time in less than four months that Randi is doing the same great job, essentially stealing the bettors dollar, while NOBODY seems to notice it or care about it... In the summer meet of Belmont, he claimed Hedge Fund from Garry Contessa for $15,000 (when he finished eighth in a nine horses race) and in less than three weeks after the claim he stepped his horse up to win in a $25,000 company.... Yesterday, thinks were even worst, he won a $60,000 claimer event with a horse he recenlty claimed for only $15,000 returning a mere 30.00 to win. This is horse racing fraud. I can continue with as many examples you want, but I think you got the idea...

DeltaLover
11-17-2008, 02:31 PM
DanG
I realize that making your straight on the river is pure skill

The skill is to calculate the probability to his hit your straight and compare it to your pot odds and either take the bet of don't...

The same does not apply to horse racing because there are so many hidden and unknown factors so you cannot estimate your odds with some accuracy.

DanG
racing starting gate is now a roulette wheel

If this was the case, it would have been great, but unfortunately the starting gate looks more like a cold deck fixed by the mechanic....

DanG
Only the all powerful 'insiders' profit from the game

Yes. Although I know scores of players who got destroyed by this game, I also know several trainers who leave in multi million dollars houses and drive brand new Mercedes.

DanG
track gambler who works 16 hour days just a little credit

Personally I am a horse player who spent more than three decades studying the game, writing software and working with insiders day in and day out, just to conclude that all this work and knowledge is close to useless in today's horse racing game...

Of course I will continue to bet horses for the rest of my life since I cannot find anything else close to the excitement I am getting from horse betting, although I know it very good that I am getting rubbed every time I approach the betting window!

DanG
11-17-2008, 03:13 PM
The same does not apply to horse racing because there are so many hidden and unknown factors so you cannot estimate your odds with some accuracy.

If this was the case, it would have been great, but unfortunately the starting gate looks more like a cold deck fixed by the mechanic....

Yes. Although I know scores of players who got destroyed by this game, I also know several trainers who leave in multi million dollars houses and drive brand new Mercedes.


Personally I am a horse player who spent more than three decades studying the game, writing software and working with insiders day in and day out, just to conclude that all this work and knowledge is close to useless in today's horse racing game...

Of course I will continue to bet horses for the rest of my life since I cannot find anything else close to the excitement I am getting from horse betting, although I know it very good that I am getting rubbed every time I approach the betting window!
With all due respect; pure nonsense.

If you really believe everything your writing; you need your head examined for betting into it. I disagree with virtually everything you’ve written, but we’ve already established that.

As far as the $30 winner at Aqu Sunday; you may want to rethink your throwing around claiming prices when discussing late season 3yo restrictions on an animal who was FAR more accomplished then that group when you view his last 10 lines. If that’s’ your example of a fix; you will need one hell of an attorney to make that stick.

My favorite style post; you speak for all…the game is rigged; winning is impossible…blah…blah…blah. I honestly would expect more from someone who claims they follow the game closely.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 03:24 PM
It's gotta be a full moon.

bigmack
11-17-2008, 03:42 PM
Yesterday, thinks were even worst, he won a $60,000 claimer event with a horse he recenlty claimed for only $15,000 returning a mere 30.00 to win. This is horse racing fraud. I can continue with as many examples you want, but I think you got the idea...
Bold talk you running around speaking in absolutes.

http://i165.photobucket.com/albums/u70/macktime/originals_bullshit1_ranndino.jpg

Imriledup
11-17-2008, 03:45 PM
Anyone who has some involvment with horse racing, can inform you that among the instructions a jockey receives about his mount, could very well be, the trainers request to 'take his horse easy'...

ME: This is part of handicapping. If a trainer has been known to take it easy first time off the layoff (for example) than this needs to be factored into your 'edge'. this is a handicapping angle that you can exploit if you know your own circuit like the back of your hand.

In most of the cases this means that for that day the horse's connections simply want to hide their horse's ability preparing an upset for one of his coming races. Truth is that the really great jockeys are those who can loose by nose although showing to the race viewers that they did their best effort.... Do not doubt this...

ME: Videotape will show live runners who are in the back 'hiding'. I've made monster scores on horses like this. You can see the horse crying out to run with the rider doing everyting in his power to restrain that runner. I have a race i made my best score of the year in a So Cal race in 2008 just by video observation on a first time starter who was sawed in half by the rider and then came back to crush the field in his 2nd lifetime start at a nice price. If you are very observant you WANT jocks to stiff live runners and put bad lines on the pp's....if you see the stiffs, you can make huge jack the next time out.

Another pretty significant way of fixing a race is simply using modern chemistry. We have a pretty extensive array of 'great' trainers who had their licences supsended for using this type of race fixing... Lake Scott, Biancone, Pletset, Asmussen, Richy Dutrow and Allen Jerkens are among the 'big' names that are proven to use this method with great success.

ME: This is the biggest problem a handicapper who doesnt' have inside info faces. its just pot luck....you have to do the best you can. If a horse runs a bizarre figure out of nowhere, he'll most likely come down to earth at some point at a short price. What goes up must come down. If you think a horse won because of drugs, eventually, he'll be overclassified at a short price and be a throwout in the future. it does suck to lose money getting beat by a drug horse, but you can take advantage of this going forward if you know for sure a horse won only because of drugs.

The adaption of Bounce Theory, preached by Ragozin, Brown and their followers is a great excuse used in modern horse racing for favorites that failed to deliver, burning millions of betting dollars that the naive horse player risked in a predeternmined failure....

Did you watch yesterday's third race at Aquduct? It is the second time in less than four months that Randi is doing the same great job, essentially stealing the bettors dollar, while NOBODY seems to notice it or care about it... In the summer meet of Belmont, he claimed Hedge Fund from Garry Contessa for $15,000 (when he finished eighth in a nine horses race) and in less than three weeks after the claim he stepped his horse up to win in a $25,000 company.... Yesterday, thinks were even worst, he won a $60,000 claimer event with a horse he recenlty claimed for only $15,000 returning a mere 30.00 to win. This is horse racing fraud. I can continue with as many examples you want, but I think you got the idea......

CincyHorseplayer
11-17-2008, 03:58 PM
Poker fans and players are awfully cocky in their estimation of that game and the pretentiousness of thinking they know this game.

The fact that there are no blinds and a horseplayer can see the PP's of all the entrants before the race(the equivalent of seeing all the cards a priori)eliminates what is perceived as a huge rake.

And in the universal language of ROI I bet poker players,even the best of,cannot match ROI's with the best of horseplayers.People are impressed with winnings without realizing how much it takes to win x amount of dollars.If I bet 1 mil a week I'd be a flashy and impressive individual too.Doesn't mean I'd be a genius.

trigger
11-17-2008, 05:36 PM
Poker fans and players are awfully cocky in their estimation of that game and the pretentiousness of thinking they know this game.

The fact that there are no blinds and a horseplayer can see the PP's of all the entrants before the race(the equivalent of seeing all the cards a priori)eliminates what is perceived as a huge rake.

And in the universal language of ROI I bet poker players,even the best of,cannot match ROI's with the best of horseplayers.People are impressed with winnings without realizing how much it takes to win x amount of dollars.If I bet 1 mil a week I'd be a flashy and impressive individual too.Doesn't mean I'd be a genius.

Pure Unadulterated Rocking Horse Poo !

Robert Fischer
11-17-2008, 06:07 PM
I'm telling ya, Two Pairs beats Three of a Kind today if the jockey doesn't swing him widest of all in a premature move. :bang:

cmoore
11-17-2008, 06:24 PM
moore: You might be right about some, but notice I was first to volunteer to play, and I'm not looking for someone else to put my entry fee up either! Some great TV show ideas here, let's get to work on 'em;)

Boomer

10k is a lot of money to lose Boomer..What if its down to me and you and the last race of the contest is a MSW with all first timers.You know your toast..:lol:

TEJAS KIDD
11-18-2008, 01:08 PM
Watching people handicap horse races would be the equivalent of watching paint dry. :sleeping:

Yeah and Poker is soooo exciting...Do you realize how much footage they have to take just to put some action into those televised poker tournaments?

LottaKash
11-18-2008, 03:57 PM
Yeah and Poker is soooo exciting...poker tournaments?

Just as in horse racing, it is, if your are playing......:jump: :jump: :jump:

best,

Wright Stuff
11-18-2008, 10:05 PM
Count me in.

CincyHorseplayer
11-18-2008, 11:15 PM
Pure Unadulterated Rocking Horse Poo !


You tell me.Everybody still has their hole cards.But all 5 are on display.

You'd sure as hell like to bet on that hand without getting taxed and tariffed along the way.

You know what the odds are on the tote board before actually betting a cent.

The only difference between your average horseplayer and your average poker player is you're willing to bet 10 times as much and win half as less.

That's your bad and a function of your ego.Tooting your own horn takes precedence than just winning.Period.

We get odds over here..............or we don't bet....or lose a dime for thinking about it.....