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fmhealth
11-10-2008, 12:55 PM
This man is "en fuego"!! He's hit a few of these lately.
Congratulations to Steve on some suberb 'capping. He's the man!!!
http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

Tom Barrister
11-10-2008, 01:44 PM
So the man bet $1,026 into an Pick Six pool without a carryover and hit it for 56k?

Am I the only one who thinks that it isn't very bright to bet over a thousand into an empty Pick Six on a non-mandatory payout day?

JustRalph
11-10-2008, 01:58 PM
56-1 is 56 to 1 isn't it?

I have a feeling a 1k bet is babyshit to Crist

Dick Powell
11-10-2008, 02:06 PM
On top of the pick six that he hit for Capital OTB customers on Breeders' Cup day, how do you find a cloud in this silver lining? 50-1 return plus a bunch of consolations at almost $500 each. With no carryover, a 15% takeout brought another $9K to him and other conso winners than the 25% takeout when there is a carryover. It looks to me like Steve did everything right. Where's the love?

the little guy
11-10-2008, 03:05 PM
Am I the only one who thinks that it isn't very bright to bet over a thousand into an empty Pick Six on a non-mandatory payout day?


Off the top of my head.....yes.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 03:11 PM
So the man bet $1,026 into an Pick Six pool without a carryover and hit it for 56k?

Am I the only one who thinks that it isn't very bright to bet over a thousand into an empty Pick Six on a non-mandatory payout day?

I think that you may be one who doesn't have an idea of how to bet a P6 to win it. Crist knows what he is doing.

jdl

Robert Fischer
11-10-2008, 03:26 PM
those magical exotics

Stevie Belmont
11-10-2008, 03:28 PM
It's funny how some people always find a way to knock a score no matter what...Nice score for the Crister..

ryesteve
11-10-2008, 04:09 PM
Yes, it was a nice score, but at the same time, I wish everyone wasn't so quick to knock the knocker. I think it's a valid point for discussion. At what level does a bet into a small pick 6 pool make it a poor bet?

LottaKash
11-10-2008, 04:13 PM
I vote for $.10 pick 6's...........:jump: ....It would sure make playing the ponies much more fun....and no harm done to anyone.........I mean even a lowly $1k is a very elitist thing, wouldn't you think ?.....Why should all the whales have all the fun ?

best,

boomman
11-10-2008, 04:29 PM
Yes, it was a nice score, but at the same time, I wish everyone wasn't so quick to knock the knocker. I think it's a valid point for discussion. At what level does a bet into a small pick 6 pool make it a poor bet?

Even though I have all the respect in the world for Steve Crist and his handicapping, my own personal opinion on this (as stated in my first book) is I NEVER wager into a non-carryover pick 6 pool UNLESS it's a final day of the meet, which then makes it a must pay. The level of difficulty and the $2 minimum play for the pick 6 makes the ticket cost prohibitive and there are a lot of other wagering opportunities that I enjoy a higher level of success and can still get some nice "bang for my buck" as well. Certainly not knocking 56-1 on the money anytime, but I prefer to see several hundred thousand "dead" dollars in the pool as a carryover before I look at the pick 6 seriously........;)

Boomer

Light
11-10-2008, 04:49 PM
Considering the pk4 paid a paltry $167. And the other 2 legs were won by a $9 horse who owned the 2nd biggest Turf beyer in the field and the other winner was the class of the field ,a must in any serious pik 6 tik,I'm not impressed. Sometimes payouts go your way and sometimes they dont.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 04:56 PM
Considering the pk4 paid a paltry $167. And the other 2 legs were won by a $9 horse who owned the 2nd biggest Turf beyer in the field and the other winner was the class of the field ,a must in any serious pik 6 tik,I'm not impressed. Sometimes payouts go your way and sometimes they dont.


There really should be an internet Hall of Fame for stuff like this.

But, yes, sometimes payoffs go our way and sometimes they don't. However, the successful players are the ones that put themselves in position to win.

Suff
11-10-2008, 05:02 PM
You should read the link before the knock. He acknowledges non-carryover pools are unusual plays for him, but, (paraphrasing), he has been seeing them well.


When your seeing them well you swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Any Major Leaguer will tell you that.

My entire betting career I took great pains to celebrate others success.

W2G
11-10-2008, 05:04 PM
Steve has been on a roll lately and is playing with house money. This is not a typical situation to jump into the pool with a big ticket but if you're hot, why not?

I think he's a good handicapper and a brilliant horseplayer. There is a difference.

Nice hit.

Light
11-10-2008, 05:21 PM
There really should be an internet Hall of Fame for stuff like this.

But, yes, sometimes payoffs go our way and sometimes they don't. However, the successful players are the ones that put themselves in position to win.

I don't think this was a very hard pick six from a handicapping point of view. I played the card. Compare it to the BC Pk6. Same payout as Crist's. More competitive fields. More unknowns. Bigger fields and a greater degree of skill required.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 05:54 PM
I don't think this was a very hard pick six from a handicapping point of view. I played the card. Compare it to the BC Pk6. Same payout as Crist's. More competitive fields. More unknowns. Bigger fields and a greater degree of skill required.


It's about making money...whether the handicapping is easy or hard.

Dick Powell
11-10-2008, 05:56 PM
$89K on a Sunday at 15% is not a small pool. It's not like Steve played it on a Thursday with small fields. And even if he did, a win is a win. It shows that potential soft spots exist in unlikely places if you are willing to look.

Light
11-10-2008, 06:04 PM
Not knocking the guy. I am aware he also hit the BC Pk6 as well for same amount with a $5000 investment. Even though he only got 11-1 that day on his money compared to 51-1 yesterday,it's more impressive to me on a handicapping level. On a monetary level,yesterday was more impressive,but money doesn't impress me as much as skill.

cj
11-10-2008, 06:05 PM
Not knocking the guy. I am aware he also hit the BC Pk6 as well for same amount with a $5000 investment. Even though he only got 11-1 that day on his money compared to 51-1 yesterday,it's more impressive to me on a handicapping level. On a monetary level,yesterday was more impressive,but money doesn't impress me as much as skill.

Try buying groceries with handicapping skill.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 06:13 PM
Try buying groceries with handicapping skill.

It's no easier than trying to do it without handicapping skill.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 06:16 PM
Yes, it was a nice score, but at the same time, I wish everyone wasn't so quick to knock the knocker. I think it's a valid point for discussion. At what level does a bet into a small pick 6 pool make it a poor bet?

At the point that there are less then three contenders bet for each race.

3X3X3X3X3X3 has a great percentage, if you have skill for identifying those contenders. It is far more likely that you could develop that skill then it is that you could develop enough skill to cut the number of contenders.

Crist understands this.

jdl

cj
11-10-2008, 06:16 PM
It's no easier than trying to do it without handicapping skill.

I'm pretty good at handicapping the clerks. I always beat at least one person out of the store that was in line before me. I live for those moments.

cj
11-10-2008, 06:18 PM
At the point that there are less then three contenders bet for each race.

3X3X3X3X3X3 has a great percentage, if you have skill for identifying those contenders. It is far more likely that you could develop that skill then it is that you could develop enough skill to cut the number of contenders.

Crist understands this.

jdl

Less than 3, or 3?

I would bet pretty much bet anything that he would never play a single a 3^6 ticket in the P6.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 06:19 PM
At the point that there are less then three contenders bet for each race.

3X3X3X3X3X3 has a great percentage, if you have skill for identifying those contenders. It is far more likely that you could develop that skill then it is that you could develop enough skill to cut the number of contenders.

Crist understands this.

jdl


I don't think he would understand your post, as it seems you are dancing around quite a few points, but, no, playing a single 3x3x3x3x3x3 is not how to hit a Pick-6 and Steve has gone to great lengths to explain why.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 06:20 PM
I'm pretty good at handicapping the clerks. I always beat at least one person out of the store that was in line before me. I live for those moments.

Well, you know me, I handicap the employees to see which one I want to chat it up with the most.

rrpic6
11-10-2008, 06:35 PM
You should read the link before the knock. He acknowledges non-carryover pools are unusual plays for him, but, (paraphrasing), he has been seeing them well.


When your seeing them well you swing at pitches outside the strike zone. Any Major Leaguer will tell you that.

My entire betting career I took great pains to celebrate others success.

Well said Suff! I was composing a similar response when I scrolled down to yours! Crist is in his comfort zone betting New York Tracks. After hitting the BC Pick 6, his confidence level had to be extremely high. You gotta go after the big scores when you have the bullets and the mojo!

RR

P.S. Friday nite's Hollywood pic6 payout is haunting me. The late nite post time, coupled with no internet betting outside Cali took away so many smart players. Here are the Winners ML Odds....they are in my wallet until they fade...5/2--/10-1//3-1/--7/2--/3-1//6-1/..the carryover was about 285K...1 winner gets 665K.:bang:

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 06:42 PM
I don't think he would understand your post, as it seems you are dancing around quite a few points, but, no, playing a single 3x3x3x3x3x3 is not how to hit a Pick-6 and Steve has gone to great lengths to explain why.

What am I dancing around? I said that if you had skill at identifying the minimum of 3 contenders per race, your percentage would be very acceptable. What ever the number per race, your chances for winning increase greatly if you can play an inclusive strategy as opposed to an exclusive strategy.

Anybody that is prepared to put $5,000 into a P6 with the intentions of winning it, in the usual course of business, does not get tremendously busy excluding contenders. They are betting everyone that they can make any case for.

The more inclusive that you can be, the better off you are.

How many times to you toss a winner trying to chisel the ticket cost?

jdl

toetoe
11-10-2008, 06:43 PM
Andy,

So sorry you won't be seeing the cutie in the frozen venison aisle, what with, y'know, that season's worth of meat that fell into your lap. :(

Crist admits he bet too much on that pick-six, and any handicapper worth his salt will at least admit his rulebreaking wrongdoing, even while committing it. He knew going in that the best scenario would be in the 50-kilodollars ballpark, and he invested a few hundred more than he should. No mortal sin, and still a great accomplishment. :ThmbUp:

the little guy
11-10-2008, 06:48 PM
What am I dancing around? I said that if you had skill at identifying the minimum of 3 contenders per race, your percentage would be very acceptable. What ever the number per race, your chances for winning increase greatly if you can play an inclusive strategy as opposed to an exclusive strategy.

Anybody that is prepared to put $5,000 into a P6 with the intentions of winning it, in the usual course of business, does not get tremendously busy excluding contenders. They are betting everyone that they can make any case for.

The more inclusive that you can be, the better off you are.

How many times to you toss a winner trying to chisel the ticket cost?

jdl



You do say a lot without really saying much. I'll give you credit for that.

Ah, but if it were only as simple as you say ( in too many words ).

cnollfan
11-10-2008, 06:48 PM
I don't think this was a very hard pick six from a handicapping point of view. I played the card. Compare it to the BC Pk6. Same payout as Crist's. More competitive fields. More unknowns. Bigger fields and a greater degree of skill required.

Well, everybody else who played the Pick 6 must have thought it was hard, because none of them hit it.

Using logical horses to collect an illogically large payoff -- well done, Steven!

Charlie D
11-10-2008, 06:49 PM
your chances for winning increase greatly if you can play an inclusive strategy as opposed to an exclusive strategy.


jdl


Correct

DanG
11-10-2008, 06:51 PM
The real story is not that a good pick-6 player scored; but how the pick-6 pools have escalated in NY.

Not many years ago you could wait several days before a pool of that size. Crist has clearly played a large part in marketing the wager in NY. If for nothing else; he is living proof that wagering can be increased through diligent promotion.

One more thing to Crist…knock it off; the two day break into a carry-over is one of life’s great pleasures. :ThmbUp:

cj
11-10-2008, 06:53 PM
The real story is not that a good pick-6 player scored; but how the pick-6 pools have escalated in NY.

Not many years ago you could wait several days before a pool of that size. Crist has clearly played a large part in marketing the wager in NY. If for nothing else; he is living proof that wagering can be increased through diligent promotion.

One more thing to Crist…knock it off; the two day break into a carry-over is one of life’s great pleasures. :ThmbUp:

I think part of it is that many people can't bet SoCal right now online. Another part of it is that some people have given up trying to hit a P6 on synthetics.

toetoe
11-10-2008, 06:55 PM
jonnie,

You need not agree, but I, along with Mssrs. Crist and Serling, and presumably others, believe that the simple math favors the multi-ticket strategy over the "caveman" method. Crude example:

Average $3,000 ticket whittled to $1,200; average $1,800 saved is greater than the average net winnings on the rare ticket that would cash cavemanwise, yet would not cash multi-ticketwise, anyway. When both would lose, an event that occurs a majority of the time, the difference stays in the pocket.

All confused ? AAH, my job is done. :cool:

the little guy
11-10-2008, 06:55 PM
I could be wrong, but I don't think the Pick-6 pools have grown very much, if at all, in NY.

cj
11-10-2008, 06:58 PM
I could be wrong, but I don't think the Pick-6 pools have grown very much, if at all, in NY.

I can remember it taking 3 days to reach a 100k carryover, and this day had 90.

toetoe
11-10-2008, 07:00 PM
Not doubting you, but it is very strange that SC prefers the carryover days, which feature a higher takeout by :10: PERCENT !!

cj
11-10-2008, 07:00 PM
What am I dancing around? I said that if you had skill at identifying the minimum of 3 contenders per race,

Did you even look at the ticket? He used 8 horses in the last race.

He "narrowed" it down to 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8. You were close though, nice post.

cj
11-10-2008, 07:02 PM
Not doubting you, but it is very strange that SC prefers the carryover days, which feature a higher takeout by :10: PERCENT !!

Of course on carry over days, the higher takeout is reduced by the carryover itself. I honestly didn't know the carryover was lower on non carried days. That is a great idea.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 07:09 PM
I can remember it taking 3 days to reach a 100k carryover, and this day had 90.

I'm skeptical but will check it out this week.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 07:33 PM
jonnie,

You need not agree, but I, along with Mssrs. Crist and Serling, and presumably others, believe that the simple math favors the multi-ticket strategy over the "caveman" method. Crude example:

Average $3,000 ticket whittled to $1,200; average $1,800 saved is greater than the average net winnings on the rare ticket that would cash cavemanwise, yet would not cash multi-ticketwise, anyway. When both would lose, an event that occurs a majority of the time, the difference stays in the pocket.

All confused ? AAH, my job is done. :cool:

It seems the differences in those two particular methods would depend on individual perspective and intentions. Do you take a shot at the P6 with three $50 tickets and expect to win 2 out of 10, or do you expect to win 2 out of 100.

If you have the winner in your top 4, 90% of the time, would it be a caveman strategy to include that top 4 in each race, or to exclude a couple here and there to chisel the ticket cost? Where does your best chance lie?

How often is the winner a horse that you considered and tossed?

jdl

the little guy
11-10-2008, 07:44 PM
Here's the difference....

Caveman tickets weigh every horse in each race the same, and since it is very unlikely that we consider every horse we use in every race as likely to win as the other horses we use in that race, this kind of ticket does not spend your dollars as wisely as possible. By using multiple tickets, you afford yourself the opportunity to use horses you can't use in caveman tickets, and possibly hit if you are smart in four or five races, and not quite as clever in the remaining race or two.

Winning comes down to how well you spend your available dollars....and assuming a finite bankroll, a caveman ticket does not do this as well as multiple tickets.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 07:45 PM
Did you even look at the ticket? He used 8 horses in the last race.

He "narrowed" it down to 4, 5, 4, 4, 5, 8. You were close though, nice post.

No, I didn't look at the ticket, my point in the post was that Crist knows that his chances are better with an inclusive strategy, as opposed to an exclusive strategy.

I'm not surprised at all to see him go as high as 8 in the last race. The overall strategy of the bet is a faith in the public to not bet in accordance to the nature of racing.

Crist narrowed it very little because he realizes that this is the mistake of the amatuer, he didn't make that mistake, he knows what he is doing.

He knows that if he does this 10 times he'll likely cash 4 tickets, maybe 6. The likelihood that favorites will dominate is not great, the likelihood that he will be splitting the pool with 100 others is not great either. The likelihood that he will at least double his money is great.

jdl

turfnsport
11-10-2008, 07:47 PM
3X3X3X3X3X3 has a great percentage, if you have skill for identifying those contenders.
Crist understands this.

jdl

Playing a 3X3X3X3X3X3 P6 ticket is a sure way to the poor house. You obviously have not read Crist's book or know much about P6 strategy.

Perhaps you can get Steve to be the professor in a Pick 6 class at your Horseplayer U.

You can pick up your students on the short little bus.

cj
11-10-2008, 07:49 PM
He knows that if he does this 10 times he'll likely cash 4 tickets, maybe 6. The likelihood that favorites will dominate is not great, the likelihood that he will be splitting the pool with 100 others is not great either. The likelihood that he will at least double his money is great.

jdl

He is not cashing 4, or maybe 6, out of 10 P6 tickets like this. Do you believe half the crap you post?

Charlie D
11-10-2008, 07:50 PM
I could be wrong, but i think Jonnie was maybe using

3X3X3X3X3X3

as an example

turfnsport
11-10-2008, 07:51 PM
He knows that if he does this 10 times he'll likely cash 4 tickets, maybe 6.

jdl

Yeah, he is hitting 60% of his P6 plays....lololol

C'mon.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 07:57 PM
No, I didn't look at the ticket, my point in the post was that Crist knows that his chances are better with an inclusive strategy, as opposed to an exclusive strategy.

I'm not surprised at all to see him go as high as 8 in the last race. The overall strategy of the bet is a faith in the public to not bet in accordance to the nature of racing.

Crist narrowed it very little because he realizes that this is the mistake of the amatuer, he didn't make that mistake, he knows what he is doing.

He knows that if he does this 10 times he'll likely cash 4 tickets, maybe 6. The likelihood that favorites will dominate is not great, the likelihood that he will be splitting the pool with 100 others is not great either. The likelihood that he will at least double his money is great.

jdl


For someone who seems to have very little idea of how Steve plays you certainly make a lot of assumptions about him.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 07:58 PM
Here's the difference....

Caveman tickets weigh every horse in each race the same, and since it is very unlikely that we consider every horse we use in every race as likely to win as the other horses we use in that race, this kind of ticket does not spend your dollars as wisely as possible. By using multiple tickets, you afford yourself the opportunity to use horses you can't use in caveman tickets, and possibly hit if you are smart in four or five races, and not quite as clever in the remaining race or two.

Winning comes down to how well you spend your available dollars....and assuming a finite bankroll, a caveman ticket does not do this as well as multiple tickets.

In the 21st century, thinking that there is any race, of any type, that has only one or two horses in it, that can win it, is very unwise.

This game is now wrapped around two wagers, one is the P6, the other is the superfecta. Without a minimum of 4 horses in each race that can win it, your handle and attendence is in the toilet.

The perspectives, and strategies of the many different players are widely varied, but the more successful are always found to be in and with respect to reality.
As Crist's wager is.

jdl

the little guy
11-10-2008, 08:00 PM
In the 21st century, thinking that there is any race, of any type, that has only one or two horses in it, that can win it, is very unwise.

This game is now wrapped around two wagers, one is the P6, the other is the superfecta. Without a minimum of 4 horses in each race that can win it, your handle and attendence is in the toilet.

The perspectives, and strategies of the many different players are widely varied, but the more successful are always found to be in and with respect to reality.
As Crist's wager is.

jdl


This has absolutely nothing to do with the post of mine that you quoted.

What it has to do with I have no clue.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:03 PM
For someone who seems to have very little idea of how Steve plays you certainly make a lot of assumptions about him.

You know zero about me, but you make a lot of assumptions about me.

jdl

the little guy
11-10-2008, 08:07 PM
You know zero about me, but you make a lot of assumptions about me.

jdl


Once again.....not true....and not relevent.

I made zero assumptions about you.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:10 PM
This has absolutely nothing to do with the post of mine that you quoted.

What it has to do with I have no clue.

Sure it does, you said that you were going to weigh the horses differently, which would mean that you are not going to recognize the possibility that there may be 3 horses in the race with equal chances of winning.

Saying that the perspective of "these three can win" would be "caveman", while the perspective of "this one is probable", "this one is maybe", and "this one is just in case" would be "more sophisticated".

jdl

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:11 PM
Once again.....not true....and not relevent.

I made zero assumptions about you.

So, what do you know about me?

turfnsport
11-10-2008, 08:16 PM
This game is now wrapped around two wagers, one is the P6, the other is the superfecta. Without a minimum of 4 horses in each race that can win it, your handle and attendence is in the toilet.
jdl

Jon, Don't let the facts get it the way.

Sunday at Big A:
Track handle: 824,827
ITW: 2,123,574
ISW: 5,159,059

Pick 6 Pool: 89,468
Last race exacta pool: 315,432
Last race Super pool: 111,019

the little guy
11-10-2008, 08:17 PM
Sure it does, you said that you were going to weigh the horses differently, which would mean that you are not going to recognize the possibility that there may be 3 horses in the race with equal chances of winning.

Saying that the perspective of "these three can win" would be "caveman", while the perspective of "this one is probable", "this one is maybe", and "this one is just in case" would be "more sophisticated".

jdl


No, that would be incorrect.

What I said was that a caveman ticket gives an equal chance of each horse you use in each specific race.

I appreciate your presumption, but I obviously understand that one MIGHT decide that each of three, or even more, horses in one race have a relatively equal chance in that race, but to suggest that is the case, as a caveman ticket doesn't suggest but says loud and clear, in every race is illogical and highly unlikely.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 08:19 PM
So, what do you know about me?


Thankfully, absolutely nothing.

I do know this about myself.....I find most of your posts full of double talk and long winded paragraphs that ultimately say very little. However, I just attribute this to my short attention span and lack of intelligence.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:20 PM
Jon, Don't let the facts get it the way.

Sunday at Big A:
Track handle: 824,827
ITW: 2,123,574
ISW: 5,159,059

Pick 6 Pool: 89,468
Last race exacta pool: 315,432
Last race Super pool: 111,019

And that shows what?

cj
11-10-2008, 08:22 PM
Ummm...this maybe?


This game is now wrapped around two wagers, one is the P6, the other is the superfecta. Without a minimum of 4 horses in each race that can win it, your handle and attendence is in the toilet.

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:28 PM
No, that would be incorrect.

What I said was that a caveman ticket gives an equal chance of each horse you use in each specific race.

I appreciate your presumption, but I obviously understand that one MIGHT decide that each of three, or even more, horses in one race have a relatively equal chance in that race, but to suggest that is the case, as a caveman ticket doesn't suggest but says loud and clear, in every race is illogical and highly unlikely.

So, to think and/or believe that there will be 3 or 4 horses, that could win it, in each and every race would be illogical, unlikely, and pretty much just plain stupid. Is that about the size of it?

jdl

Tom Barrister
11-10-2008, 08:39 PM
I still think it's a stupid bet, winner or not. I'm not knocking his handicapping, just the size of the bet into an empty pool.

It doesn't matter if the takeout is only 15%; all that does is make it less stupid than if it were the full 25%.

It doesn't matter if he said he knew it wasn't a good idea. Knowing something is stupid doesn't justify doing it.

It doesn't matter if he's on a roll. The horses don't know that, and "rolls" eventually regress to the mean.

It doesn't matter if $1,026 is chump change to Crist. If the bet has a negative expectation, or a lower expectation over betting something else, it's a bad bet. He can mark it up to entertainment or "action", but that still doesn't make it a good bet.

The fact that it worked out this time doesn't mean it was a good bet. You can box the field for a buck in a 12-horse superfecta race for $11,880. If it hits for $27,000, that doesn't necessarily mean you made a smart bet.

My opinion is that he made a stupid bet: whether for for entertainment, action, or because he can afford it doesn't make it a smart bet. That's my opinion, and others may have different views.

turfnsport
11-10-2008, 08:42 PM
And that shows what?

My point was... YOU said:


"This game is now wrapped around two wagers, one is the P6, the other is the superfecta. Without a minimum of 4 horses in each race that can win it, your handle and attendence is in the toilet."

Despite what TVG tells you, this game is not wrapped around two wagers.

Robert Fischer
11-10-2008, 08:45 PM
crist has the right idea

hes trying to make a great tenderloin

i can make a chuck eye that tastes like a tenderloin, but there's no money in that!:D

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 08:58 PM
My point was... YOU said:



Despite what TVG tells you, this game is not wrapped around two wagers.

What is it wrapped around then?

jdl

cj
11-10-2008, 09:07 PM
What is it wrapped around then?

jdl

You are just being antagonistic now. Clearly, in New York, the game is not wrapped around the P6 or the P4.

The exacta pool was 3 times the super pool and 3.5 times the P6 pool. Stevie Wonder can see the exacta is more popular.

DeanT
11-10-2008, 09:16 PM
Congrats to Steve. He works hard at the pcik 4 and 6 and he deserves it, imo.

I agree with Tom tho. Someone much smarter than me told me you never want more than 1% as a bet size into that pool. Sounds to me that Steve bet it cuz he was on a roll.

jmo.

dylbert
11-10-2008, 09:25 PM
"It is not best that we should all think alike; it is a difference of opinion that makes horse races." -- Mark Twain

The difference of opinion here is genuine. Some folks view Crist's wager as bold while others hold it out as folly. Playing and succeeding with Pick Six is personal choice as with all wagers. I prefer win bets and exactas. My late grandmother was dedicated show bettor who had uncanny knack for daily double in old days when that was the ONLY exotic bet at Oaklawn Park.

P6 does not fit my bankroll or comfort zone. P3 and an occasional P4 work well for me when I have strong opinion about series of races.

Personally, I applaud Crist. I enjoy his writing -- both books and blog. Bravo!

jonnielu
11-10-2008, 09:32 PM
You are just being antagonistic now. Clearly, in New York, the game is not wrapped around the P6 or the P4.

The exacta pool was 3 times the super pool and 3.5 times the P6 pool. Stevie Wonder can see the exacta is more popular.

So it's antagonistic to ask for clarification? I grew up in South Florida, and lived there for 38 years. I guess that I still don't care how they do things in New York.

It shows that Crist may be a little craftier to play a pool that nobody is paying any attention to in an inclusive way.

jdl

cj
11-10-2008, 09:39 PM
So it's antagonistic to ask for clarification? I grew up in South Florida, and lived there for 38 years. I guess that I still don't care how they do things in New York.

It shows that Crist may be a little craftier to play a pool that nobody is paying any attention to in an inclusive way.

jdl

Two people already pointed out the obvious, but you still needed clarification. Thanks for ruining yet another thread.

BombsAway Bob
11-10-2008, 10:07 PM
I think the BEST thing to happen to the DRF website ( www.drf.com (http://www.drf.com) ) since it's inception has been Steve's "CRISTBLOG". While Dan Illman was the first to blog on the DRF site, Steve has made a point of posting his Pick-6 plays using his A-B-C system. This allows multitudes of developing horseplayers the opportunity to see how he gets the most bang for his wagering buck.
Visiting drf.com for CristBlog & the online "Siros Seminars" from Late July 'til Labor Day is a must for SPA bettors. I know it's made me a better player in my Pick-4 sequences.(I don't play the P-6)

sammy the sage
11-10-2008, 10:21 PM
Funny how ever-one take's ""Time-out"" to bash or praise some-one else...YET does NOTHING to HELP themselve's ...

for example the STERIOD thread...which should be of INTEREST to every-one here..YET no-one discuss's...no mattter HOW it might ALTER your betting style/options...

sad really.......

The Hawk
11-10-2008, 10:55 PM
I can't believe that someone could take this and make it into a negative.

1) Crist is brilliant. It's an overused word, but in this case, it applies.

2) Here we have an opportunity where we have access to the ideas of a great player, who is more than willing to teach and share his methods (which will likely cost him at some point, if it hasn't already, as more people cash tickets in pools where he's won) and people are going to knock him? What other player of this caliber is willing to post, in every detail, his successes and failures?

3) Calling this a bad bet is like a high school football player watching an NFL playoff game on tv and criticizing a play from Peyton Manning. You're welcome to your opinion, and in the end you may even be right, but to me it's just cringe-inducing, poor form, and makes you look bad.

turfnsport
11-10-2008, 11:23 PM
[color=darkred] Steve has made a point of posting his Pick-6 plays using his A-B-C system. This allows multitudes of developing horseplayers the opportunity to see how he gets the most bang for his wagering buck.

Bob,

Maybe your boys at TVG could learn a little something about laying out a P6 ticket....lol.

the little guy
11-10-2008, 11:48 PM
So, to think and/or believe that there will be 3 or 4 horses, that could win it, in each and every race would be illogical, unlikely, and pretty much just plain stupid. Is that about the size of it?

jdl


You put words like stupid in my mouth, but I guess if the shoe fits......


I think anyone that actually understands playing multi-race bets, and actually wins doing it, knows that what I have stated in this thread is true. Now, that doesn't mean there aren't people who play caveman tickets and are successful, but even they understand that every race doesn't contain three to four horses equally likely to win. Their argument would be that the odds equalize their play, and perhaps there is truth in that, however I believe that multiple tickets are the best means to an end in succeeding with your play. The idea is to give yourself the best chance to hit the Pick-6.

BombsAway Bob
11-10-2008, 11:59 PM
Bob,
Maybe your boys at TVG could learn a little something about laying out a P6 ticket....lol.
With the $120 Limit TVG uses on Pick-6 tickets, I don't know if an A-B-C Pick-6 is much of an advantage. I DO THINK TVG should employ the A-B-C method for their "ALL-STAR" Pick-4 tickets. Currently "TVG ALL-STAR" tickets often toss $160 to $220 into a Single ticket, & it won't even include a "Home Run" 15/1ml shot! Anyone can use the top 4 choices blindly on a Caveman $1Pick-4 for $256 and cash a few, but they'll never get The BIG SCORE doing so.

Light
11-11-2008, 01:37 AM
Try buying groceries with handicapping skill.

If you were offered 2 choices by a Genie which would you take? A) You would hit a Crist type Pk6 one time in your life so you could buy your groceries or B) you would be given the required handicapping skills to hit them. I do know people who have hit Crist type Pk6's and are broke now.They basically had one good day and have not been able to duplicate it since. Curse of the Genie. Sorry CJ, but if you want to continue to buy groceries,you'd best choose B.

dav4463
11-11-2008, 05:57 AM
Blazers trailed the Rockets by one the other night with time for one shot. Brandon Roy was having an off night, but had the confidence to hoist up a 35 foot three pointer at the buzzer. It went in and the Blazers won. It wasn't the smartest play, but it was taken with the confidence he could make it and his team won.

Crist was confident on his pick 6 I would think and he is richer because of it.

LottaKash
11-11-2008, 06:35 AM
If you were offered 2 choices by a Genie which would you take? .

Got a Genie, Think Big.....:jump:

best,

Bobzilla
11-11-2008, 09:04 AM
Anybody who is interested in how Steven Crist approaches the construction of his P6 tickets can refer to his book Exotic Betting and go to chapter 6 which addresses the P6 play specifically. He gives examples of multiple ticket plays starting on page 158. He also explains the philosophy behind this approach, as already done on this thread by tlg on post #43.

The debate over playing into non-carryover pools aside, one cannoy help but marvel at the efficiency of his attack on the P6 on Sunday. From looking at his matrix on the cristblog, which can be seen through the link at the top of the thread, a caveman ticket would have cost $28,800. But by assigning weights to each horse's chances he's able to cover them all over 10 tickets reducing the cost to $1,026.

Looks like he played all his A horses one ticket for $54.

Then he played 6 tickets where he played 5 races with only the A horses while the other race was represented by the combo of B and C horses for tickets costing $162, $36, $162, $162, $36 and $108.

Then finally, he creates three tickets where he has 4 races represented by only the A horses along with 2 races where only the B horses are represented, for tickets of $162, $108 and $36. The $108 ticket was the one he scored with the other day.

Congratulations to Steve Crist! Sweet Play ! I highly reccomend the book Exotic Betting if you haven't had the chance to get it yet.

Bruddah
11-11-2008, 09:07 AM
and I have been laughing my a$$ off. I have a mental image of Steve and I sitting in his office, while reading these posts and laughing, with tears streaming down our faces. In actuality, he is counting a big handful of Benjamins, and I like the rest of you, have bupcuss.

Good on you Steve and any other handicaper that can cash, using any style or method. May the rest of us be so fortunate in the future. It must be fun counting a stack of over 500 Benjamins. :ThmbUp: ;)

LottaKash
11-11-2008, 09:14 AM
Well for me, unless there is a $.10 pick 6 anytime soon, when reading good handicapping books, I usually just gloss over the pick-6 part, as I simply cannot afford it.........Nice to be able to assemble a budget ticket for $1K...haha...

Good for you Steve, I am somewhat jealous.......

best,

point given
11-11-2008, 09:53 AM
Crist was confident on his pick 6 I would think and he is richer because of it.

Exactly right. Crist had a good opinion on this particular p6. He had some probable singles he liked and some he disliked and would play against, hence he saw some good value in playing this card. I think this is a better play than seeing a big carryover and playing it while having little feel for the card with a couple of turf sprints included in the play. It would be interesting to see his win percentage of p6 plays with and without turf sprints though.
I used to play small caveman p6 tickets on days that I had an opinion on guaranteed $1 mil days and carryovers. When the racing secretaries started to construct difficult plays, I left the bet to others, switching to the p3 and p4 sequences , exacta and tri bets on those races I had a good opinion of.

MickJ26
11-11-2008, 10:18 AM
So the man bet $1,026 into an Pick Six pool without a carryover and hit it for 56k?

Am I the only one who thinks that it isn't very bright to bet over a thousand into an empty Pick Six on a non-mandatory payout day?


I personally don't have that kind of budget, but, I'm sure Steve Crist wouldn't have invested that much money if he didn't think it was a hittable score. Most handicappers are arrogant enough to believe you should be able to take down a pick 6 with a $2. bet.

eastie
11-11-2008, 10:32 AM
I'm pretty good at handicapping the clerks. I always beat at least one person out of the store that was in line before me. I live for those moments.

do you have the same luck at the tollbooth ?

I know that he says he usually plays when there are carryovers. I like to play when there are no carryovers. It's a softer pool, without the most formidable handicappers in there against me. Even still the pick 6 is tough to do on a daily basis. Making it a dime play is stupid (just like the dime super ) because it gives the outdoor bingo players a chance.

Pace Cap'n
11-11-2008, 12:42 PM
He could have bet a pick-7, like this one...

http://i38.tinypic.com/vomzaf.jpg

Dahoss9698
11-11-2008, 01:25 PM
So let me get this straight. Crist offers up opinions on races almost daily, for FREE in his blog, and has written books dedicated to helping out bettors. He's a tremendous friend to bettors everywhere and is always outspoken when it comes issues involving bettors. Breeders Cup weekend, he made patrons of an OTB in Albany, NY a nice sum of money, by hitting a pick 6 for them. And, he has earned whatever praise anyone might throw at him by paying his dues in various aspects of this game.


He hits a pick 6 and people knock it? Who cares if he put too much money into it? When you're going good, isn't that what you are supposed to do? It makes a hell of a lot more sense than chasing. Sometimes, for whatever reason, as bettors we get on hot streaks. You strike when the iron is hot IMO. I just don't get people sometimes.....

Niko
11-11-2008, 02:02 PM
Trying to get a straight answer from Jonnielu is like trying to catch a yetti...

Niko
11-11-2008, 02:09 PM
A 56-1 return is a bad bet?

If you can hit it 10% of the time is it still a bad bet, 3-4% of the time? (volatility and size of bankroll set aside)

Isn't the goal of horse racing to take as much money out of the pool as you're able to-to win as much money as you can?

I rarely play the pick 6 so take my comments for what they're worth.....

the little guy
11-11-2008, 02:42 PM
Trying to get a straight answer from Jonnielu is like trying to catch a yetti...


I'll take Yeti and lay the points.

DanG
11-11-2008, 03:01 PM
This thread has really gone in unexpected places.

Just to throw another Yule log on the debate fire;

Just because a bet wins doesn’t necessarily make it a sound risk. The same is true that some of our smartest gambles lose. At the end of each session the balance is the ultimate score keeper; but while the bullets are flying there are wagers of various degrees of risk / reward.

Crist is in a zone…I imagine he would be the first to tell you he has made gambles where he had more leverage; but we all can’t behave like machines 24/7. There are times when gambling instincts and hot streaks can produce almost ill-rational profits.

Not as much fun to talk of a very down period I went through a few months back so I’ll discuss a ridiculous pick-4 hot streak. During one period last year it felt like I could walk in water at the spring Belmont meet. At one point I was playing so disproportionately on my AAAA ticket it almost became a joke when cashing virtual straight pick-4’s on several consecutive days.

We all wish we could bottle these moments; but they just happen. The key as Little Andy I believe said is to “put yourself in a position to be successful” often enough to take advantage of streaks and hopefully minimize down times.

Steve Crist is clearly a friend of racing and it’s a short list people who can articulate the gamblers needs as he can. Good for him; and while if you cut him he clearly bleeds first from the Hudson River he is still a strong national advocate for a game that needs every literate ally it can find.

Light
11-11-2008, 03:33 PM
One more thing I'm not impressed with is the amount Crist puts into the pk6's. $1000 to $5000. How confident can you be of your picks with tickets like that.Doesn't make me want to hire him as my handicapping Guru or praise him for his hits. I'd say a decent number of people on this board could probably do as well with that kind of bankroll. C'mon,I hit the late pk4 at Aqu on Sunday on an $8 tik. I played $1 doubles with only a dollar in each and hit 3 of them. Its not that I'm that good. It was an easy card and Crist was in the right place at the right time at the right track.

toetoe
11-11-2008, 03:48 PM
Andy's point about knowing your maximal investment for a certain bet is crucial to understanding how to efficiently attack the pick-six. That and actually knowing whether the card is good for you, particularly, are the two huge considerations.

As to the maximal amount available for a bet, I maintain that people fluff this one all the time with small intrarace bets. The power of $8 to win on a longshot is eroded significantly by savers underneath in trifectas, a couple of bucks to show, a saver on the second favorite, etc. Now, when attacking the pick-six, many reasonable bettors determine a ballpark figure that they can logically invest, based on the card (any turf sprints ? :eek: ), the sizes of the fields, the presence or absence of a carryover, today's projected pool, etc. What they rarely do, however, is to bang a longshot for $20 win, PERIOD, resisting the urge to fritter 60% of those $20 on "savers" and psychological sops.

Figure how much you REALLY want to risk on a bet (maybe nothing at all :eek: ), and then bang the VAST majority or ALL of that amount to win, or show, or whatever.

the little guy
11-11-2008, 03:51 PM
One more thing I'm not impressed with is the amount Crist puts into the pk6's. $1000 to $5000. How confident can you be of your picks with tickets like that.Doesn't make me want to hire him as my handicapping Guru or praise him for his hits. I'd say a decent number of people on this board could probably do as well with that kind of bankroll. C'mon,I hit the late pk4 at Aqu on Sunday on an $8 tik. I played $1 doubles with only a dollar in each and hit 3 of them. Its not that I'm that good. It was an easy card and Crist was in the right place at the right time at the right track.



Yet approximately $100K, outside of Steve's wager, was bet into the same bet and none of that money was " in the right place at the right time at the right track. "

Honestly, there is so much wrong with your post it would be impossible to even know where to start.

toetoe
11-11-2008, 04:05 PM
Light,

You are just not thinking straight. You make it sound like some snobby game of honor. You want us to line up in formation a la the Redcoats, and Crist is the bad guy for hiding behind a tree (or riding through in a tank) and taking down the pot.

Do you deny, Light, that your rationale for contributing only $4 to my pick-six ticket at GGF was the rhetorical question, "Who ever heard of anybody hitting the pick-six with four singles?" Now, I admit that by hacking and hewing the ticket to save $18 dollars, I screwed us out of $5,000 ( :blush: :blush: ). However, you are now apparently saying, "Play a caveman ticket, but just don't play too much."

Your comfort zone is apparently somewhere between zero singles and three singles, and somewhere between $16 and $200. Am I right ? Until you flesh out your general strategy for attacking the pick-six, I will only have a clue as to your "don'ts." I want to hear your "do's."

toetoe
11-11-2008, 04:10 PM
Almost forgot my tocsin for the sexy prexy-elect. Beware the Beltway yetis, Sir. They're just looking for an Obama nibble. :bang:

the little guy
11-11-2008, 04:27 PM
Almost forgot my tocsin for the sexy prexy-elect. Beware the Beltway yetis, Sir. They're just looking for an Obama nibble. :bang:


I'm fairly safe until Belmont reopens.....unless Yeti happens to be hiding out in East New York......and runs into an A train on its way to the Big A.

toetoe
11-11-2008, 04:46 PM
Fellow votaries in Cristendom,

I just checked the DRF Cristblog, and it says that he played "bigger and {more loosely} than I usually would on a non-carryover card." That is not tantamount to "playing too much," as I alleged. :blush:

toetoe
11-11-2008, 04:56 PM
After seeing that there were 197,568 possible combinations, I'm inclined to say that the $1,000 plus investment was NOT excessive. Of course, the turfsprintless card, the lack of any other winners to split with, etc. made it a best case scenario.

It must be SO nice to not have to bow to a partner's preference ("If you like him, we better throw him in" ... :bang: ).

turfnsport
11-11-2008, 05:36 PM
It was an easy card and Crist was in the right place at the right time at the right track.

LOL...Yeah, where was everyone else, playing golf or playing Suffolk?

Light
11-11-2008, 05:50 PM
Light,

You are just not thinking straight. You make it sound like some snobby game of honor. You want us to line up in formation a la the Redcoats, and Crist is the bad guy for hiding behind a tree (or riding through in a tank) and taking down the pot.

My point is you guys are over praising. He's not better than the rest of you. His wad is his biggest asset.I can't praise that.Where's my praise for hitting the late pk4 on $8. That's a better showing handicapping wise than what he did even though it didn't pay squat for me. Thats been my point all along.My correct $8 investment for 4 races showed I could handicap better than his $1000 investment for 6. I dont owe him any praise for that.

Do you deny, Light, that your rationale for contributing only $4 to my pick-six ticket at GGF was the rhetorical question, "Who ever heard of anybody hitting the pick-six with four singles?"

How many times have you done that before or since? That's why I felt it was a bad bet.

Your comfort zone is apparently somewhere between zero singles and three singles, and somewhere between $16 and $200. Am I right ? Until you flesh out your general strategy for attacking the pick-six, I will only have a clue as to your "don'ts." I want to hear your "do's."

I like to bet low and win big. I'm not what's his name who puts $1 million through the window to make $1.1 million. Because my philosophy is if you are going to win,you are going to win and vice versa. Its has more to do with your state of mind than your bankroll. Betting large is irrelevant in some cases and a waste in most cases.

Robert Fischer
11-11-2008, 06:16 PM
My point is you guys are over praising. He's not better than the rest of you. His wad is his biggest asset.I can't praise that.Where's my praise for hitting the late pk4 on $8. That's a better showing handicapping wise than what he did even though it didn't pay squat for me. Thats been my point all along.My correct $8 investment for 4 races showed I could handicap better than his $1000 investment for 6. I dont owe him any praise for that.

let the big dawg eat

hracingplyr
11-11-2008, 06:37 PM
love to know how many he lost before he hit that one? We always here about the big hits never the loses. He is probably even with that hit, maybe.

Bob

the little guy
11-11-2008, 06:43 PM
love to know how many he lost before he hit that one? We always here about the big hits never the loses. He is probably even with that hit, maybe.

Bob


Is it really that hard to see other people win?

point given
11-11-2008, 06:59 PM
love to know how many he lost before he hit that one? We always here about the big hits never the loses. He is probably even with that hit, maybe.

Bob

He hit the BC P6 for around $60K, then a $12.5K, now a $56K, - I'd say the old man is doin' just fine, thank you. He is the Man Weasel of the P6 ;)

toetoe
11-11-2008, 07:36 PM
Light,

Please try thinking more clearly. I'm NOT razzing you --- I'm as serious as Ellen's neckties ( :eek: ).

I have charitably forborne to rhetorically question how many pick-sixes you have cashed with your razor-slim-to-no-shot 2 X 2 X 3, etc. tickets. Also, how many times have you invested $36, $48 or even $96 into a caveman pick-three with only a stabber's hope that, upon cashing (perforce only a solitary ticket), you might actually get a good return, as opposed to just cashing a ticket for any old amount, like MILLIONS OF LOSERS ? Don't you see that the takeout, what Quinn called the crucible of expectation, DEMANDS that we fill out our slips with sharp pencils indeed ? PLEASE prove my assumptions about your wagering wrong. I want to hear some wonderful, dogmatic punter's logic from you.

Now, give Crist credit for foresight, and for having a reasonable goal, a reasonable expectation of accomplishing more than just cashing a baby signup now and then. You demean Mr. Crist, and you make yourself hard to take seriously when you make such outrageous, oversimple claims.

P.S. :)

toetoe
11-11-2008, 08:04 PM
My point is you guys are over praising. He's not better than the rest of you. His wad is his biggest asset.I can't praise that.Where's my praise for hitting the late pk4 on $8. That's a better showing handicapping wise than what he did even though it didn't pay squat for me. Thats been my point all along.My correct $8 investment for 4 races showed I could handicap better than his $1000 investment for 6. I dont owe him any praise for that.



How many times have you done that before or since? That's why I felt it was a bad bet.



I like to bet low and win big. I'm not what's his name who puts $1 million through the window to make $1.1 million. Because my philosophy is if you are going to win,you are going to win and vice versa. Its has more to do with your state of mind than your bankroll. Betting large is irrelevant in some cases and a waste in most cases.

Beyond not answering my question, you did not say much of ANYTHING specific. I still maintain that single/single/single/single/all/all is often "betting low." Please give some parameters for your own tickets. Otherwise, your "reasoning" is as maddening as that of the guy who asked me once for the name of the composer of the theme for Route 66. Of course I knew it was Nelson Riddle, but I was not willing to vituperate over it. The only thing the guy could say was, "No, it wasn't Nelson Riddle. I don't know who it was, but I'm SURE it wasn't Nelson Riddle." You are saying, "I don't have a plan for attacking the pick-six that has any real shot, but I know Crist's way is wrong." Doesn't the late, lamented pick-six contest prove that even with large bankrolls, the beast is hard to kill ?

toetoe
11-11-2008, 08:26 PM
Light,

Can a pick-four that doesn't "pay squat" EVER be considered a marvel of handicapping skill ? You should be headbanging the wall for not tacking the 4th and 5th races to the front of your pick-four, thereby hitting the pick-six.

I know you could get a loan for, oh, $100,000, and maybe see whether you could chase the pick-six occasionally without the terror induced by undercapitalization. I fear that you might not do well; otherwise, I would urge you to try it, as you imply that reasonably deep pockets are the only ingredient lacking in the losing sixpicker's recipe.

Think of all the $1-to-$10 bets we fritter away. What if we just went two months without betting, instead throwing those non-bets into a piggy bank. Wouldn't those several hundred(?) dollars then possibilitate a reasonable stab at a pick-six on a nearly ideal day at a major track ? The only difference between that scenario and SC's scenario is that he has the capital to scratch his pick-six itch ANY day, even on marginal cards. He still does it with admirable rigor, greater than I've seen in your method, Light.

I remember being terrified (a loser's mentality, I know) at the thought of throwing $60 into that GGF pick-six. Despite that, I was absolutely sure of three singles, and when I settled on Princess Lianna as the fourth single, I felt I was really getting somewhere. As I recall, you took that opportunity to berate the apprentice jockey named on two of my "locks." My point is that we can always come up with "don'ts." Crist knows how to come up with "do's" ... and he do.

Niko
11-11-2008, 10:04 PM
this has certainly gotten to be a tough crowd, but it's nice to have different opinions. There are different ways to play a pick six, Gibson Caruthers talks about smaller tickets in Horseplayer magazine. Which is better? Depends on your ability and bankroll and it's good to discuss

But I'm not sure how you can knock Crist, unless you've consistently done better?--even then I'd be hard pressed to see how it's warranted


And he's talking about it on a public blog, what could be better for the game to attract some big money to horse racing? I hope he continues to hit....

Light
11-12-2008, 12:13 AM
At the risk of sounding like a broken record,I have nothing against Crist. Toe,this is not about me or how I bet. All I'm saying is Sunday's Pk6 was not hard and Crist got away with an enormous overlay in the pk6. I am begining to wonder if any of my critics actually looked at that card or played it. If you did,you should know what I'm talking about. I could go through it but I will be accused of redboarding. It was easy because it came out like most people handicapped it as the payouts showed with one of the doubles paying under $5 for a $1 bet. I am ashamed to admit I caught that with a $1 investment but I am being criticized for saying this was an easy pk6. But Crist caught it too. Now there's a capper who has to put a $1000 into a pick 6 with a $5 payout on a DD sequence. Let's not criticize him. Crist is Christ. He HIT IT.What qualifictions do I,Mr. Nobody have to say such a blasphemous thing. Geez.

The bottom line is maybe Crist is a smart investor and has the capitol to do it. I think that would be a much more accurate assessment than saying he has some extraordinary handicapping ability or that it required a stroke of genius to be the only person to catch that pick 6. Look,I've been in the position of taking down an entire pool, but I didn't consider myself noteworthy for it. It's more that I'm incredulous that nobody would play a horse because of some prejudice of where the horse came from or that the favorite was a lock. And that's what it comes down to...sometimes. Not handicapping skill but actual prejudice by handicappers against a horse or for a "lock" instead of using their everyday handicapping skills that they all possess. That is what makes some of these payouts hit by a lone capper more illusion than substance.

andicap
11-12-2008, 05:02 AM
I'm pretty good at handicapping the clerks. I always beat at least one person out of the store that was in line before me. I live for those moments.

Every see that Simpsons where Apu takes Marge shopping in that superstore? Avoid lines with all the old people who want to talk and grab the queues with depressed single men. :D

I'd say it's more important to handicap the customers at times. One neat thing about living in the U.K. is that people bag for themselves. Makes the lines go way faster.

On topic: I have always taken Crist's betting advice seriously. There are lots of good handicappers around but damn few who know how to put tickets together. I don't respect too many racing journalist's betting or handicapping acumen, but Crist is a Hall of Famer in my book. And a damn good writer. "Horse Traders" was one of the best books ever written about the racing/breeding industry.

Plus I'll always have a soft spot for him because when I wrote for the Blood-Horse and he was running NYRA he consistently came to the phone and gave great interviews.

P.S. Good to have Dick Powell on this site. Hope you stay around and post actively. Have always enjoyed your handicapping columns.

ezrabrooks
11-12-2008, 09:17 AM
At the risk of sounding like a broken record,I have nothing against Crist. Toe,this is not about me or how I bet. All I'm saying is Sunday's Pk6 was not hard and Crist got away with an enormous overlay in the pk6. I am begining to wonder if any of my critics actually looked at that card or played it. If you did,you should know what I'm talking about. I could go through it but I will be accused of redboarding. It was easy because it came out like most people handicapped it as the payouts showed with one of the doubles paying under $5 for a $1 bet. I am ashamed to admit I caught that with a $1 investment but I am being criticized for saying this was an easy pk6. But Crist caught it too. Now there's a capper who has to put a $1000 into a pick 6 with a $5 payout on a DD sequence. Let's not criticize him. Crist is Christ. He HIT IT.What qualifictions do I,Mr. Nobody have to say such a blasphemous thing. Geez.

The bottom line is maybe Crist is a smart investor and has the capitol to do it. I think that would be a much more accurate assessment than saying he has some extraordinary handicapping ability or that it required a stroke of genius to be the only person to catch that pick 6. Look,I've been in the position of taking down an entire pool, but I didn't consider myself noteworthy for it. It's more that I'm incredulous that nobody would play a horse because of some prejudice of where the horse came from or that the favorite was a lock. And that's what it comes down to...sometimes. Not handicapping skill but actual prejudice by handicappers against a horse or for a "lock" instead of using their everyday handicapping skills that they all possess. That is what makes some of these payouts hit by a lone capper more illusion than substance.

Hey Light...fire away at Crist, he's a big boy, and you are entitled to your opinion. But, you played a $1 double that was going to return $5? Was that the last single in your wallet (or account)? The only reason I can see playing a straight double with a short pay is that you are confident you have the goods....but a dollar?

Ez

Tom Barrister
11-12-2008, 11:06 AM
All I'm saying is Sunday's Pk6 was not hard and Crist got away with an enormous overlay in the pk6.

He didn't get away with an enourmous overlay in the Pick Six. He got LUCKY and ended up with the best possible result he could have gotten, outside of possibly having longer price(s) of his selections win another race or races so he'd get more consolation money.

There are many ways his bet could have gone wrong:

1) If he misses two or more races, he gets nothing.

2) If he misses a race and hits the consolation, he might or might not get his money back.

3) If all favorites come in, he'll be lucky to break even.

4) If the favorite he left out won instead of his single, and he hit the consolation, he might not get a fifth of his money back.

5) If shorter priced horses on his ticket win, he might have to share it with many others.

As it turned out, he got lucky by winning all of the races, and lucky again by not having to share it with anybody.

How many of you who are praising his bet as being clever and savvy would have said the same thing if he'd gone four for six and not taken down a dime? How many would have applauded him if all chalk came in----including the co-favorite that he chose to leave out of his ticket---and he'd ended up getting about $40 back?

It isn't about a single result, and a successful result doesn't necessarily mean the bet was a good one. While Crist may be a winning horseplayer, this wasn't one of his wiser bets, in my opinion.

the little guy
11-12-2008, 12:40 PM
It just keeps getting funnier and funnier.

Light
11-12-2008, 12:56 PM
Hey Light...fire away at Crist, he's a big boy, and you are entitled to your opinion. But, you played a $1 double that was going to return $5? Was that the last single in your wallet (or account)? The only reason I can see playing a straight double with a short pay is that you are confident you have the goods....but a dollar?

Ez

You might not be saying that if you saw some of the other payouts I've hit with a single dollar. That's a bit irrelevant.I was trying to make the point of how there were 2 free squares in Crist's pk6 sequence.

I'm a sucker for the exotics. So by lowering my investment to $1 or $2 per exotic I can play them all in every race. And they add up. Then add your win bets and cover bets and I'm spent.

Alot of this non insurance type of betting comes from my "system". I love to put it to the test and understand how to improve it from the results. Sometimes I play without betting just to further its evolution.

TEJAS KIDD
11-12-2008, 01:20 PM
Yes, it was a nice score, but at the same time, I wish everyone wasn't so quick to knock the knocker. I think it's a valid point for discussion. At what level does a bet into a small pick 6 pool make it a poor bet?

When you multiply the amount wagered on the ticket by the odds of your singles and the overall pool figures to be less.

For example..

$1000 ticket singling 5/1 and 5/1
$1000 to win on 1st single returns $6000
$6000 to win on 2nd single returns $36000 with no Irs signup

If the pool figures around 100,000 with a 20% takeout.
80,000 back to the winners of which 75% goes to tickets correctly picking 6/6
60,000 payoff to a sole ticket
of which Uncle Sam takes 25% 45,000 return without the 5/6's
Thats a profit but that's only if a sole winner
If 2 tickets payout, then payoff is 30,000 (minus 7500 IRS withholding), that ticket would equal negative value.

Before I play a pick 6, I always look at my singles and do that math. There's no sense in singling a couple of 5-1 shot on a 1000 ticket into a Pick 6 pool that'll payoff less than 35000.

fiveouttasix
11-12-2008, 01:45 PM
Benefit of the Pick-6 vs win parlay is the chance of getting your money back (or profiting) if only one single hits but catching 5 /6.

TEJAS KIDD
11-12-2008, 02:49 PM
Benefit of the Pick-6 vs win parlay is the chance of getting your money back (or profiting) if only one single hits but catching 5 /6.

Yes, but you still have to catch 4 other winners.
Im not against playing the pick 6, but your ticket has to offer value.

DanG
11-12-2008, 03:16 PM
When you multiply the amount wagered on the ticket by the odds of your singles and the overall pool figures to be less.

For example..

$1000 ticket singling 5/1 and 5/1
$1000 to win on 1st single returns $6000
$6000 to win on 2nd single returns $36000 with no Irs signup

If the pool figures around 100,000 with a 20% takeout.
80,000 back to the winners of which 75% goes to tickets correctly picking 6/6
60,000 payoff to a sole ticket
of which Uncle Sam takes 25% 45,000 return without the 5/6's
Thats a profit but that's only if a sole winner
If 2 tickets payout, then payoff is 30,000 (minus 7500 IRS withholding), that ticket would equal negative value.

Before I play a pick 6, I always look at my singles and do that math. There's no sense in singling a couple of 5-1 shot on a 1000 ticket into a Pick 6 pool that'll payoff less than 35000.
This is a sharp gambler talking! :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

jonnielu
11-12-2008, 04:36 PM
How many of you who are praising his bet as being clever and savvy would have said the same thing if he'd gone four for six and not taken down a dime? How many would have applauded him if all chalk came in----including the co-favorite that he chose to leave out of his ticket---and he'd ended up getting about $40 back?

.

Here's one. Because Crist knows that he can make what you consider bad bets all day long and still be ahead of you. Because he has the experience that you don't. It only comes from making the kind of bets that you can not make, and winning them.

Don't waste a minute of your time thinking that he can transfer that experience to you within the pages of some book.

jdl

Dick Powell
11-12-2008, 05:18 PM
I've read the entire thread and still do not believe it was a foolish bet. If you have a $2K bankroll and you bet $1k in a non-carryover pick six, maybe I would agree. But if you can weather going a month or so without any returns and then hit one like Steve did you are going to be ahead. His bet was creative and contrarian. The only luck involved was that no one else hit it that day which he, or anyone else playing it, has any control over.

DeanT
11-12-2008, 05:45 PM
Nice post Tejas! That is a pretty excellent easy way to quickly illustrate your proposition on this bet. Very nice.

Dick, without giving away any trade secrets, do bigger players, if getting back 8 points or so take advantage of these bets, or do they prefer to concentrate on win betting with a juice reduction?

Several I know will simply not bet the pick 6. They would rather grind out profits in the win double, pick 3 and exacta pools. In fact, I have never met a big pick 6 player, actually, but I only know a couple professionals.

Tom Barrister
11-12-2008, 05:55 PM
Here's one. Because Crist knows that he can make what you consider bad bets all day long and still be ahead of you. Because he has the experience that you don't. It only comes from making the kind of bets that you can not make, and winning them.

Don't waste a minute of your time thinking that he can transfer that experience to you within the pages of some book.

jdl

If you're going to go stalking somebody, try to stick to facts. You don't know how much experience I have, nor what Crist knows or doesn't know, nor that he's ahead of me, nor what bets I can make. You don't even know that he's ahead on betting for the year. I know that I am, and I don't care how well Crist does. It isn't any of my business.

I don't think much of any of the DRF books anyway. They're all yesterday's news, like you are. At least those books are intelligible, unlike most of what you write.

Dick Powell
11-12-2008, 06:12 PM
Dean,

Without disclosing anything, I can tell you anecdotally that it's not a popular bet for those that are trying to churn their way to high thresholds. But I have a friend that was and is a huge pick six player way before rebates came into play.

I think that if you have the bankroll and can survive the dry spells it's a great bet. Since California went synthetic, most of my pick six plays have been out there. I try to limit plays to carryover days where my money is not in the carryover. My typical ticket might be $196 and, I confess, I make caveman plays. I am usually a race-by-race bettor but out there I don't mind taking what I might have bet during the six-race span and put it into a ticket that looks like it has a chance.

jonnielu
11-12-2008, 06:13 PM
If you're going to go stalking somebody, try to stick to facts. You don't know how much experience I have, nor what Crist knows or doesn't know, nor that he's ahead of me, nor what bets I can make. You don't even know that he's ahead on betting for the year. I know that I am, and I don't care how well Crist does. It isn't any of my business.

I don't think much of any of the DRF books anyway. They're all yesterday's news, like you are. At least those books are intelligible, unlike most of what you write.

Many things show clearly.

jdl

DeanT
11-12-2008, 06:18 PM
Thanks Dick. It seems like it is a bet you like, or don't like as you seem to confirm. I read one big player (I want to say Gallo, but I think it is not him) plays/played it religiously. He was of a similar Crist philosophy of betting a "separator" as a key horse, which makes some clear sense, especially on carryover days.

Anyway, it is simply not a bet for me. I'd like to say it is not a bet, because I have no patience in constructing proper tickets but is it truly because, at them, I stink.

Pace Cap'n
11-12-2008, 06:29 PM
I have heard that a university study (Drexel) recommended using a base bet of $12 when playing teh p-6. Does that seem like a good idea?:)

DeanT
11-12-2008, 06:35 PM
Since I hit my only pick 6 since about, oh 1989 last year spending $16, I think he is $4 too low :)

Other than Barry M and Steve's work, has anyone done any statistical studies on pick 6's? I have not seen any but sure would like to do some reading on it.

turfnsport
11-12-2008, 06:44 PM
I have heard that a university study (Drexel) recommended using a base bet of $12 when playing teh p-6. Does that seem like a good idea?:)

LOL..I read that study.....actually had they used the caveman method, they would never done been caught.

ezrabrooks
11-12-2008, 07:00 PM
I have heard that a university study (Drexel) recommended using a base bet of $12 when playing teh p-6. Does that seem like a good idea?:)

A heck of a method..but you do have to share your selections with your cellmate, Bubba.

Ez

aaron
11-12-2008, 07:37 PM
This is unbeleivable, Crist hits a pick 6 and all he gets is knocked. It seem to me there are some jealous people out there. In this game,cashing is the important thing,not whether it was a good bet or bad bet. Crist cashed a pick 6 and that makes it a good bet. End of story.

JustRalph
11-12-2008, 09:42 PM
I can't keep track of everybody on this board......... I love this thread.............. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Good Stuff,

Now somebody tell me who the hell Dick is?

PaceAdvantage
11-12-2008, 09:49 PM
This is unbeleivable, Crist hits a pick 6 and all he gets is knocked.Another mischaracterization. Not every thread in here knocks Crist. There is plenty of praise in this thread as well.

ezpace
11-12-2008, 10:05 PM
I don't know him personally but when i go to NYC horseplayer cafes I've never

seen him with the little guy when TLG's asking the restaurant proprietor

for free appetizers on a good day or asking for a monthly tab. on a bad

one ;) ;) ,,however guessing on Crist's net worth

,,,i think he is a conservative astute P6 punter ,,compared to the Miami

and LA boys i' have seen personally in action.


jokin TLG ;)

the little guy
11-12-2008, 10:25 PM
I just had a great dinner at 15 East....picked up the tab even though it was a bad day at the Big A.

I wish I could have gotten some free apps.

eastie
11-13-2008, 01:39 AM
mmm...... appetizers

098poi
11-13-2008, 06:00 AM
I'm thinking the length of this thread is not justified by the first post. An underlay thread? And now I have been drawn in. AHHHHHHHHH!!! :bang:

ryesteve
11-13-2008, 07:15 AM
In this game,cashing is the important thing,not whether it was a good bet or bad bet. Crist cashed a pick 6 and that makes it a good bet. End of story.I can't disagree with you more. If all you do is make bad bets, whether or not you happened to cash TODAY, is irrelevant. In the long run, your bad bets are going to lead you to the poorhouse.

I completely agree with those who say that the outcome is not the determinant as to whether or not a bet is a good one, or a bad one.

That said, I still have no idea as to whether or not Crist's bet was a good one or a bad one, but I find his own remarks interesting... that this is NOT the sort of bet he usually makes. If one assumes that Crist usually makes good bets, and yet he hardly ever makes a bet like THIS one, that would seem to suggest that in general, he does NOT consider bets like this to be good ones.

The way I read it, the people being accused of being negative and critical are speaking in generalities as well. I didn't see anyone analyze his ticket structure and say he did it wrong; the issue raised is, whether or not putting over $1,000 into a non-carryover day at Aqueduct is a good idea or not; by his own words, Crist seems to be saying that in general, it's not.

So all of the complaining and sarcasm emanating from Crist's defenders would seem as if they're being directed at people with whom Crist actually agrees.

jonnielu
11-13-2008, 08:48 AM
I can't disagree with you more. If all you do is make bad bets, whether or not you happened to cash TODAY, is irrelevant. In the long run, your bad bets are going to lead you to the poorhouse.

I completely agree with those who say that the outcome is not the determinant as to whether or not a bet is a good one, or a bad one.

That said, I still have no idea as to whether or not Crist's bet was a good one or a bad one, but I find his own remarks interesting... that this is NOT the sort of bet he usually makes. If one assumes that Crist usually makes good bets, and yet he hardly ever makes a bet like THIS one, that would seem to suggest that in general, he does NOT consider bets like this to be good ones.

The way I read it, the people being accused of being negative and critical are speaking in generalities as well. I didn't see anyone analyze his ticket structure and say he did it wrong; the issue raised is, whether or not putting over $1,000 into a non-carryover day at Aqueduct is a good idea or not; by his own words, Crist seems to be saying that in general, it's not.

So all of the complaining and sarcasm emanating from Crist's defenders would seem as if they're being directed at people with whom Crist actually agrees.

Gee, which way could it be. First Crist tells you what would be a "good bet" (cost to you, $14.95?), then he turns around to head to the window to put a prohibitive amount of cash in on a "bad bet" P6, that nets him the whole pool.

Knowing the whole time, that you will be easily soothed by an admission of making a "bad bet". Did he also promise to never do it again?

Apparently, he is also deserving of many accolades and superlatives for the spectacular display of high end herdsmanship.

jdl

ryesteve
11-13-2008, 09:46 AM
His book was mostly about structuring tickets. Go ahead and tell me how the structure of this ticket contradicted anything in his book.

Do you switch tinfoil hats when talking about Crist instead of Beyer, or is that the same one you keep on at all times?

DanG
11-13-2008, 10:04 AM
Gee, which way could it be. First Crist tells you what would be a "good bet" (cost to you, $14.95?), then he turns around to head to the window to put a prohibitive amount of cash in on a "bad bet" P6, that nets him the whole pool.

Apparently, he is also deserving of many accolades and superlatives for the spectacular display of high end herdsmanship.

jdl
IMHO: Exotic Betting is one of the very few books from DRF press in years that is WELL worth the money. :ThmbUp:

BTW: It’s about $16.47 new or roughly the price of a top shelf drink at Siro’s. (Without the tip)

Amazon link: http://www.amazon.com/Exotic-Betting-Multihorse-Multirace-Racings/dp/1932910921/ref=cm_cr_pr_sims_i

DanG
11-13-2008, 10:16 AM
At times this thread reminds me of the hold 'em bluff with a 2 / 7 off-suit that the player just can’t get away from.
http://www.friday-night-poker.co.uk/mediac/400_0/media/72.jpg

aaron
11-13-2008, 10:34 AM
I can't disagree with you more. If all you do is make bad bets, whether or not you happened to cash TODAY, is irrelevant. In the long run, your bad bets are going to lead you to the poorhouse.

I completely agree with those who say that the outcome is not the determinant as to whether or not a bet is a good one, or a bad one.

That said, I still have no idea as to whether or not Crist's bet was a good one or a bad one, but I find his own remarks interesting... that this is NOT the sort of bet he usually makes. If one assumes that Crist usually makes good bets, and yet he hardly ever makes a bet like THIS one, that would seem to suggest that in general, he does NOT consider bets like this to be good ones.

The way I read it, the people being accused of being negative and critical are speaking in generalities as well. I didn't see anyone analyze his ticket structure and say he did it wrong; the issue raised is, whether or not putting over $1,000 into a non-carryover day at Aqueduct is a good idea or not; by his own words, Crist seems to be saying that in general, it's not.

So all of the complaining and sarcasm emanating from Crist's defenders would seem as if they're being directed at people with whom Crist actually agrees.
In many cases what appears to be a bad bet in one persons opinion is a good bet in another persons opinion.
An example of this is the case when a horses record shows he is 0-14 and is going off 5/2. Most players would automatically say its a bad bet,but today's circumstances might make it a good bet,and if you cash today you are 1 for 1 with that horse,not 1-15.

JustRalph
11-13-2008, 12:49 PM
His book was mostly about structuring tickets. Go ahead and tell me how the structure of this ticket contradicted anything in his book.

Do you switch tinfoil hats when talking about Crist instead of Beyer, or is that the same one you keep on at all times?
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

toetoe
11-13-2008, 01:22 PM
Light,

It is indeed about how you structure pick-sixes. You yourself said anybody with a bankroll could hit it; ergo, you yourself could hit it.

Your backtracking aside, you did indeed knock Crist. The congratulators did not distinguish between handicapping and structuring; they just gave him "attaboys." I'm not requiring that you EVER hit a pick-six to establish credibility. I'm only holding your feet to the fire to give us a worthy method. Don't you see that by tearing someone down, you're not really sharing much ?

Hoping to shed light on the pick-six mystery, I offer a rough sketch of hypothetical pick-six planning sessions, one in Cristendom, the other in the Toe-Light Zone:

SC: "Okay, maybe I'll play a miss-one with the huge favorite in the feature only as a backup. I just might get the whole pool, provided the ticket is affordable."

Toe: "Okay, with three singles and a double, we'll be able to key one or two in each of the other two, and buy both heats backupwise. $96 might get us a nice live ticket, and the carryover is just right. Famous last words, but I LOVE these three singles."

Light: "$96 ? Are you nuts ? Besides, I don't like your singles. I hate the jockeys on two of them; they'll never beat Baze. The third jockey I've never heard of. Besides, I've been hot playing trainer/jockey combinations."

Toe: "Okay, forget my backups. We'll throw Baze in on a 2 X 2 X 2 X 2 ticket for $32."

See how comfortable our "method" (:rolleyes:) is ? We cooperate like good kids in kindergarten, AND we don't have to deal with the burden of realistically being in a position to win. Also, we will always be able to blame someone/something/fate in the post mortem.

Please post a plan of hitting Sunday's pick-six, or any other. Believe me, we will be glad to get some insight into your methods. :)

P.S. This thread has been instructive, and I expect --- no, I'm DYING --- to learn more still. :ThmbUp:

LottaKash
11-13-2008, 01:28 PM
Light,
Please post a plan of hitting Sunday's pick-six, or any other. Believe me, we will be glad to get some insight into your methods. :)



:jump: :jump: :jump: :jump:

the little guy
11-13-2008, 01:50 PM
In case it wasn't mentioned ( I can't go back and read all 4367 pages of this thread ), when I spoke to Steve about 10 minutes before the 4th race, he said he was taking a shot in the Pick-6 instead of the late Pick-4 because he thought there were three very likely winners ( Tall Poppi, Under Serviced, and Classic pack ) and he thought the horse I liked, favored Bella Attrice, was very vulnerable. He said he was going to play to give himself a good chance if two ( or three obviously ) of the afforementioned horses won.

I then said only an idiot would play the Pick-6 on a non-carryover day, and he would be extremely lucky if he won, and I hoped he lost. I now hate him and will never speak to him again ( unless, or until, I go broke and need to borrow some cash ).

Charlie D
11-13-2008, 02:27 PM
In case it wasn't mentioned ( I can't go back and read all 4367 pages of this thread ), when I spoke to Steve about 10 minutes before the 4th race, he said he was taking a shot in the Pick-6 instead of the late Pick-4 because he thought there were three very likely winners ( Tall Poppi, Under Serviced, and Classic pack ) and he thought the horse I liked, favored Bella Attrice, was very vulnerable. He said he was going to play to give himself a good chance if two ( or three obviously ) of the afforementioned horses won.

I then said only an idiot would play the Pick-6 on a non-carryover day, and he would be extremely lucky if he won, and I hoped he lost. I now hate him and will never speak to him again ( unless, or until, I go broke and need to borrow some cash ).


So Mr Crist considered this P6 scenario a good investment and he was proven correct

toetoe
11-13-2008, 03:01 PM
Andy,

Think about this one: How much higher must the carryover rake (currently 10% higher in NY) be than the non-carryover rake to convert you to my view, i.e., that the NON-carryover days are a better deal, provided big fields guarantee enough combinations to separate the men from the boys ?

the little guy
11-13-2008, 03:10 PM
Andy,

Think about this one: How much higher must the carryover rake (currently 10% higher in NY) be than the non-carryover rake to convert you to my view, i.e., that the NON-carryover days are a better deal, provided big fields guarantee enough combinations to separate the men from the boys ?


Well, if a carryover covers more than the difference in take-outs, which it usually does, you can never really argue that a non-carryover play is a " better " play. However, it's like all bets we make, if you firmly believe you have an edge, then it's worth playing. Technically, there is no better wager available than a 16% take-out dispersed over six races ( forgetting about carryovers for a second ). Thus, if you have the " right " opinion, a non-carryover Pick-6 play is better than any other available.

cmoore
11-13-2008, 03:21 PM
http://www.istockphoto.com/file_thumbview_approve/225346/2/Give_Your_Two_Cents_Worth.jpg:faint:.

jonnielu
11-13-2008, 03:29 PM
His book was mostly about structuring tickets. Go ahead and tell me how the structure of this ticket contradicted anything in his book.

Do you switch tinfoil hats when talking about Crist instead of Beyer, or is that the same one you keep on at all times?

I don't have any desire to read his book, and I can admire his herdsmanship without doing so. I've read one of Andy's books, and even though I don't care for his perspective, he has displayed admirable herdsmanship also. In some areas credit is due.

jdl

Light
11-13-2008, 04:57 PM
Light,
Please post a plan of hitting Sunday's pick-six, or any other. Believe me, we will be glad to get some insight into your methods. :)


You're dragging back into this. I thought I was done. As stated originally I'm not impressed by the hit although most players dont hit anything like that in their lifetime.Most players also dont have that wad or the time.O.K. call me redboarding,but this is why,from a handicapping perspective I'm not impressed.

Let me start with the easy ones to the harder ones. It has alot to do with the way I handicap. I look at speed/distance/class/pace.

Race 6: winner $3.10.No explanation needed.

Race 7: winner $6.70. 2nd biggest Speed fig. Dropping from a better stake. Biggest late kick in the field(significantly). These were 2 free squares.

Race 9: Off the turf. Winner $10.60. Winner had the best SR(dirt or turf) and a significant edge in late pace(dirt or turf). I only liked one other horse in here. So far my ticket would cost $4.

Race 5: $9.40 Winner second best speed rating behind the fav.I would also include the fav. Ticket now $8.

Race 8: Winner : $16.40 Top SR in the field. How? I used 3 back and stated before in the thread about the book "speed to spare",that this is a powerful angle talked about in the book but the author restricts himself to unecessary criteria which would have thrown this horse out. Have to admit I liked 3 others here and that angle doesn't always work. BTW winner was entering Dutrow's barn for this race.Made him doubly dangerous.Tik now $32

Race 4: This is the pivotal race. Winner $22.20.Tall Poppi went off at 3/5. This is where the prejudice of a lock comes in. On SR the winner was 4th ranked. But this is the only other horse in the field out of a stake and she showed speed for 3 calls.That stake even though at FL had a bigger purse than Tall Poopi had been running for.$318k Vs 100k. The rest had basically broken their maidens. You'd have to be out of your handicapping mind to leave a horse out who leads for 3 calls in a $318k stake. I would have also played Poppi. $72 Tik.

Even in redboarding(I know most wont believe that this was my opinion before the race),I still wouldn't play that ticket today ($72). I have no idea if I am right or wrong until they run and I dont put that kind of money into the pk6. $36 is my tops and thats if there's a carryover.

TurfRuler
11-13-2008, 05:45 PM
I personally don't have that kind of budget, but, I'm sure Steve Crist wouldn't have invested that much money if he didn't think it was a hittable score. Most handicappers are arrogant enough to believe you should be able to take down a pick 6 with a $2. bet.

Guilty as charged. But the most sobering part is when it happens the payout is something like $62. Congratulations on all your hits with the Pick6 Steve.

toetoe
11-13-2008, 05:48 PM
Thank you, sir.

I believe every word you say, including the part about the $36 top end. Doesn't that limit make it like playing the lotto ? To save $36, you eliminated any shot of hitting a very hittable sequence.

Haven't you played $1 pick-threes for more than $36 ? If so, please explain with unruffled feathers and unraised hackles.

MAGICHORSEMAN
11-13-2008, 06:22 PM
I can't believe that this thread has received 156 comments in just 3 days. It seems that there is a lot envy for Mr. Crist

cnollfan
11-13-2008, 06:43 PM
In many cases what appears to be a bad bet in one persons opinion is a good bet in another persons opinion.
An example of this is the case when a horses record shows he is 0-14 and is going off 5/2. Most players would automatically say its a bad bet,but today's circumstances might make it a good bet,and if you cash today you are 1 for 1 with that horse,not 1-15.

Good point. Mark Cramer talks about subsets -- smaller winning profiles within larger losing profiles.

toetoe
11-13-2008, 07:25 PM
Light,

I just noticed your mythical ticket would cost $64, not $72.

Thanks again for elucidating. :ThmbUp: .

Light
11-13-2008, 08:57 PM
It seems that there is a lot envy for Mr. Crist

It's interest,not envy.

To save $36, you eliminated any shot of hitting a very hittable sequence.

Like I said,there is no way to know ahead of time that your analysis is correct or that you didn't miss something or that the unknowns will not happen which often do in this game. It is those who believe their analysis is correct that plunge headfirst into losing the rent money. If we knew when we will be right and when we will be wrong in speculating horses or the stock market,we'd all be palling around with Palin.

Haven't you played $1 pick-threes for more than $36 ? If so, please explain with unruffled feathers and unraised hackles.

Very rarely and I usually lose when I play large tickets. Having a large bankroll invites sloppy handicapping cause you feel you can just add whoever "looks good" to your ticket without doing the "work". It's amazing how much worse I do with those lazy larger kinds of tickets than when I'm forced to play small tickets and understand the dynamics of a race.That's why now I'm concentrating on miserly tickets. And yes,I see 56k I "could have had" or some other nice hit "I could have had". That used to get to me. Now I feel confirmed when I see positive results without cashing,but understand that if I did it once,I can do it again..if I apply myself which isn't always possible with work and a family.

hracingplyr
11-14-2008, 10:57 AM
am surprised that Steven has not written a book yet on how he goes about handicapping a card. What method he uses. I know many yrs ago he use to make his own figures.

Bob

tribecaagent
11-14-2008, 05:37 PM
I just had a great dinner at 15 East....picked up the tab even though it was a bad day at the Big A.

I wish I could have gotten some free apps.

Glad to hear you picked up the tab, but I hope 15 East wasn't your idea, TLG.....Bond St. is light years ahead of 15 East.....see you tomorrow at the tournament.

the little guy
11-14-2008, 06:52 PM
Glad to hear you picked up the tab, but I hope 15 East wasn't your idea, TLG.....Bond St. is light years ahead of 15 East.....see you tomorrow at the tournament.


I hate Bond Street. WAY too pretentious.

The food at 15 East is much better. The chef is from Jewel Bako....which I realize isn't pretentious enough for you.....but is great.

cj
11-14-2008, 08:56 PM
You guys never heard of Hot Pockets?

tribecaagent
11-14-2008, 09:17 PM
You guys never heard of Hot Pockets?

Of course I've heard of Hot Pockets. Who hasn't? That's sitting on the rail behind a speed dual, right?....or is that Sheik Mohammed's nickname?

Ask Bobby Frankel.

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 08:31 AM
I hate Bond Street. WAY too pretentious.

The food at 15 East is much better. The chef is from Jewel Bako....which I realize isn't pretentious enough for you.....but is great.

Great to hear that you have been well nourished, I've been hoping that you might educate me further with some expansion on the illogical thought that there would be at least 3 horses in each race that could win it.

I appreciate your presumption, but I obviously understand that one MIGHT decide that each of three, or even more, horses in one race have a relatively equal chance in that race, but to suggest that is the case, as a caveman ticket doesn't suggest but says loud and clear, in every race is illogical and highly unlikely.

I will say that it is unlikely with respect to races with short fields, but why target such races for P6 bets, with or without a carry over?

jdl

DanG
11-15-2008, 08:49 AM
I don’t know if this has anything to do with this thread (I’ve lost track) but the P6 and Crist was involved so what the heck…

Without him ever knowing it Crist taught me an extremely valuable lesson when I was in my twenty’s. Harvey Pack’s recap show one night and Crist is on after a P6 score. The last race was won by a VERY improbable bomber and Harvey asked Steve… (I’m paraphrasing from memory)


Harvey: “How in the world did you find that one?”
Steve: “I didn’t…he found me. I thought I was strong in enough legs where I was hoping for a random occurrence to blow out most players.”
That “random occurrence” philosophy is critical to this expensive / complex wager. The largest hit I’ve been involved in used that exact strategy. We were alive to 9 runners in the last leg and in truth…I thought we only “needed” 4 to have it covered.

Caveman plays aside for a second; this wager above all else is sensitive to ticket design. I’m very fortunate to be with a person who is a genius at bet construction. He would be the first to tell you he is no better then ½ the players in the room, but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen him weave his way through serial bets and clever sequencing was his primary tool.

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 09:39 AM
I don’t know if this has anything to do with this thread (I’ve lost track) but the P6 and Crist was involved so what the heck…

Without him ever knowing it Crist taught me an extremely valuable lesson when I was in my twenty’s. Harvey Pack’s recap show one night and Crist is on after a P6 score. The last race was won by a VERY improbable bomber and Harvey asked Steve… (I’m paraphrasing from memory)

Harvey: “How in the world did you find that one?”
Steve: “I didn’t…he found me. I thought I was strong in enough legs where I was hoping for a random occurrence to blow out most players.”
That “random occurrence” philosophy is critical to this expensive / complex wager. The largest hit I’ve been involved in used that exact strategy. We were alive to 9 runners in the last leg and in truth…I thought we only “needed” 4 to have it covered.

Caveman plays aside for a second; this wager above all else is sensitive to ticket design. I’m very fortunate to be with a person who is a genius at bet construction. He would be the first to tell you he is no better then ½ the players in the room, but I can’t tell you how many times I’ve seen him weave his way through serial bets and clever sequencing was his primary tool.

Good Point Dan, it seems that the whole question is where to draw the boundaries around the "random occurence", or if boundaries are advisable... given the possibilities.

Where the random occurence may be more likely in certain races, it can certainly be possible throughout, if one does not expect the unexpected at all.

jdl

the little guy
11-15-2008, 10:00 AM
Great to hear that you have been well nourished, I've been hoping that you might educate me further with some expansion on the illogical thought that there would be at least 3 horses in each race that could win it.



I will say that it is unlikely with respect to races with short fields, but why target such races for P6 bets, with or without a carry over?

jdl


You talk in circles while stating the obvious....or irreverance. You type to see yourself speak. There is no reason to engage you.

DanG
11-15-2008, 10:03 AM
Where the random occurence may be more likely in certain races, it can certainly be possible throughout, if one does not expect the unexpected at all.

jdl
Hol-11/15/2008: A difficult sequence overall; but the 7th & 9th at Hollywood today are ripe for a potential chaotic result for example; where in the 4th and 8th I feel confident going short.

Now that the above is printed internet protocol mandates six straight favorites with the 7th ad 9th producing a minus pool. :D

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 11:00 AM
You talk in circles while stating the obvious....or irreverance. You type to see yourself speak. There is no reason to engage you.

It seems that you make statements that you are unwilling to back up to the extent of discussing the logic behind them. I understand your unwilingness to engage, maybe next time.

jdl

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 11:05 AM
Hol-11/15/2008: A difficult sequence overall; but the 7th & 9th at Hollywood today are ripe for a potential chaotic result for example; where in the 4th and 8th I feel confident going short.

Now that the above is printed internet protocol mandates six straight favorites with the 7th ad 9th producing a minus pool. :D

Hey Dan, sounds like it could be an opportunity for a short bet on chaos.:)


jdl

Tom Barrister
11-15-2008, 11:56 AM
It seems that you make statements that you are unwilling to back up to the extent of discussing the logic behind them. I understand your unwilingness to engage, maybe next time.

jdl

Engaging in a logical discussion would require that the other person (you in this case) were able and willing to engage in such a discussion and were capable of taking somebody else's point of view for even a brief period of time. You aren't capable of anything but ponfiticating your own opinions, and your main goal here seems to be to wind people up. Threads die off when you enter them, because most people aren't willing to take the other side of whatever you're blathering about; they don't want to see your horse manure guilt trip ("I understand your unwilingness (sic) to engage") laid on them. The end result is that you fight with whoever is willing to give you the attention you crave until the moderators intervene, and the thread turns into a urinating match. This is the second or third thread in a week that's ended up like that because of you. Apparently, this is cool with the staff here.

Fortunately for others, the "Ignore" feature is available through the User CP. I would imagine you have the current record here for the most appearances on members' lists.

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 02:03 PM
Engaging in a logical discussion would require that the other person (you in this case) were able and willing to engage in such a discussion and were capable of taking somebody else's point of view for even a brief period of time. You aren't capable of anything but ponfiticating your own opinions, and your main goal here seems to be to wind people up. Threads die off when you enter them, because most people aren't willing to take the other side of whatever you're blathering about; they don't want to see your horse manure guilt trip ("I understand your unwilingness (sic) to engage") laid on them. The end result is that you fight with whoever is willing to give you the attention you crave until the moderators intervene, and the thread turns into a urinating match. This is the second or third thread in a week that's ended up like that because of you. Apparently, this is cool with the staff here.

Fortunately for others, the "Ignore" feature is available through the User CP. I would imagine you have the current record here for the most appearances on members' lists.

Well Tom B., I'm sure that you won't be shocked when I say that I disagree.

I don't see why you take it as a fight, if someone brings up a point that I am willing to discuss and expand upon.

I said that I believe a generally inclusive strategy will be more successful then an exclusive one. That is an opinion of mine. TLG offered that such a point of view was illogical, or that at least, is how I understood it.

If I ask, "how so?', is that fighting about it?

I suppose that I may be assuming again, but I would think that if someone has the opinion that something is illogical, I don't expect them to be offended by my asking how.

Why is it pontificating if I state what I believe? Would you care to discuss that?

jdl

the little guy
11-15-2008, 02:28 PM
I've stated my opinions on this very clearly and concisely. The very idea that you don't acknowledge this speaks volumes.

Your posts just add to the hilarity of this thread.

jonnielu
11-15-2008, 04:09 PM
I've stated my opinions on this very clearly and concisely. The very idea that you don't acknowledge this speaks volumes.

Your posts just add to the hilarity of this thread.

I'm not saying that you didn't make your statement clearly, I am allowing that maybe I didn't understand it correctly.

I understood it to clearly mean that my thinking that there would be 3 horses in any given race that could win it would be illogical and unlikely.

And I simply asked why it would be illogical and/or unlikely.

If you don't want to discuss it, that is fine, you don't need to get your hackles up.

P.S. Does this mean that it is next time already? Just an aside.

jdl

Cratos
11-15-2008, 05:38 PM
So the man bet $1,026 into an Pick Six pool without a carryover and hit it for 56k?

Am I the only one who thinks that it isn't very bright to bet over a thousand into an empty Pick Six on a non-mandatory payout day?


What am I missing from your comment? If I bet a 56-1 shot and it wins I didn’t do anything? Give me a break, hitting exotics whether they are exactas or Pick 6s is a very difficult task and to put up a grand and get $56k back at the racetrack is an achievement that 99.99% of horseplayers will never see.

toetoe
11-15-2008, 05:49 PM
Yes, cratos.

Let's decide for ourselves what the threshold of acceptability is. Of course, betting even $100 on a Hawthorne pick-six on a non-carryover weekday is inanity. That's an easy one. However, don't we need to know where to draw the line with bigger pools, too ? There has to be one, right ?


My gripe with the carryover rake is that, with more AND sharper players in the pool, we NEED that extra 10 % chunk, as it's much more likely we will have to share with many if we hit. Of course, the "sharpies" are accepting the greater rake, too.

Tom Barrister
11-15-2008, 06:19 PM
The ignore function works. Cool! I've never used this feature until today. After reviewing the past 50 posts by You-Know-Who, seeing nothing whatsoever of worth, and seeing abuse in over half of them, I decided that there was no reason to have him on my screen. Now all I see is the name. It's my contribution to the "Green Internet", saving the networks some bandwidth.

What am I missing from your comment? If I bet a 56-1 shot and it wins I didn’t do anything? Give me a break, hitting exotics whether they are exactas or Pick 6s is a very difficult task and to put up a grand and get $56k back at the racetrack is an achievement that 99.99% of horseplayers will never see.

The key phrase is "if it hits". The way some of them have responded, you would think Crist was odds-on to not only win the bet but to take the whole pool down, too. Crist himself admitted that it probably wasn't a wise bet, but that he made it anyway.

Success with one bet doesn't make that bet right. The industry is supported largely by "I won it, so it was a good bet" players.

sly fox
11-15-2008, 07:02 PM
Quote
The ignore function works. Cool! I've never used this feature until today. After reviewing the past 50 posts by You-Know-Who, seeing nothing whatsoever of worth, and seeing abuse in over half of them, I decided that there was no reason to have him on my screen. Now all I see is the name. It's my contribution to the "Green Internet", saving the networks some bandwidth.


I agree and did likewise Tom.

toetoe
11-16-2008, 12:53 PM
Thank GOD you two are not on my 'IGNORE' list, elsewise I would not be able to read the riveting discussion on that technological zenith of our age, the, um ... IGNORE BUTTON.

Light
11-16-2008, 03:27 PM
Yesterday Crist put in $880 in the pk6 and got 5 (I cant figure out how many times). The point is his ticket struture does not cover all caveman's bets. He had all the winners,but did not have a ticket structure of AACAAC which would have given him the prize.

http://cristblog.drf.com/

Obviously a caveman's picks on all his contenders would have been astronomical. But this is why (for us mere mortals without a wad of cash)you need to narrow down the number of your contenders.ABC tickets will not cover all possibilities,just cut down your expenses. Putting $1000 into a pk6 does not demonstrate expertise,but opulence. And ultimately caveman's ticket will beat any juggling ticket structure if you can narrow it down. Even Crist said in his blog:

Nice payoff of $14,379 for five second choices and a third choice

This was a smaller payout for a harder card ( in part due to the off track) than the $56K he got last Sunday. Size of payout also does not necessarily denote expertise. Although Crist is obviously no slouch in ability,I dont think he is a good example for your everyday horseplayer. What he does probably works fine for him. But that's where I draw the line.

the little guy
11-16-2008, 03:43 PM
So, in other words, playing well doesn't work for you?

Light
11-16-2008, 03:57 PM
Where did I say that?

Steve 'StatMan'
11-16-2008, 04:30 PM
I don't think there has been a detailed enough response that would provide enough of a response to Jonnielu to work through the points.

Sure, some legs one might very well like 3 horses, equally as much. More often, one will find one or more horses with better chances than others.

When there are 3 horses on likes equally, it might or may not be wise to use all 3 horses in one leg on the Pick 6. Depends on how strongly others might be them in the Pick 6 - if you like a M/L 4/5 shot, but only just as much as 2 others in that leg, you might want to leave that horse out, or not, depending on how deep you want to go on your ticket. Bankroll size and comfort level also determines how deep one would want to go in a leg or legs.

Taking 3 horses in every leg of a Pick 6 can be awfully expensive at 3^6 = $729 for a $1 ticket, and $1,458 if there is a $2 minimum. Plus, if there are some legs one needs more horses, and some legs where only 1 or 2 horses are more likely and are worth the risk and taking a stand for a price, it might be best to take fewer combinations in some legs in order to go deeper in others.

Let's say in one race, one's top 3 contenders are estimated to have win probabilities of 30%, 20% and 15%. respectively. Yes, one theoretically has a 65% of winning that one leg if one uses all 3 horses, but the price of the ticket triples for going 3 deep, and that is just one leg.

Now suppose, just as an example, you have an entire Pick-6 Card with races that sort out to the same percentages.

A 3-deep Pick 6 would have a (.65) ^ 6 = 7.54% chance of hitting, or about 1 hit in every 13.26 tries. But at a cost of $729 for just a $1 ticket, one needs a payoff of $9,666 just to break even in the long run.

Now, the probablity of having one's Third Choice (.15% chance to win) is only 0.000011390625 or 1 in about 87,791. Very unlikely. Would one really want to make a 3-deep Pick 6 just to increase their chances of winning by only that minute amount, and would the payoff justify that risk? Doubtful. Also doubtful with other combinations that are have many of those 2nd (20%) and 3rd (15%) selections.

That is why the well known and better Pick 6 players tend to weight so they don't go too deep in every leg, but instead decide what races they should use singles or doubles and the others where they need to go deep. Plus, they might not take too many combinations, if any, on only the most likely or popular tickets if they are only putting in strong favorites, since if those combinations hit, there might be too many foes with winning tickets, and the payoff would be lower and risk being underlaid.

Hopefully this helps. Sure, one could go 3 deep in every leg, it is simple - so simple a cave man could do it (sorry Geico Cave Men) but using multiple tickets to allow one to focus on more likely or worthwhile, specific tickets, is a better strategy.

One could get winning tickets either way, but for better long term results, it seems best to eliminate as many highly unlikely combinations as possible. Yes, one must cash Pick 6 tickets to be a winning Pick 6 bettor, but one can also accomplish it by losing less money on the many losing days.

DanG
11-16-2008, 04:35 PM
And ultimately caveman's ticket will beat any juggling ticket structure if you can narrow it down.

I can’t begin to stress how far off you are with this statement. If that line of thinking were used in my group we would have our feet sticking out of Anthony Bourdain’s dumpster fighting over a peach pit.

It’s a free country; someone can play 6 All’s and I say bless you my son; but if anyone is seriously thinking about attacking this wager; please do not follow the quoted advice imo.

TurfRuler
11-16-2008, 06:13 PM
I used to play small caveman p6 tickets on days that I had an opinion on guaranteed $1 mil days and carryovers. When the racing secretaries started to construct difficult plays, I left the bet to others, switching to the p3 and p4 sequences , exacta and tri bets on those races I had a good opinion of.


When the racing secretaries started to construct difficult plays,

Could you explain this comment to me further, my conspiracy theories are much wilder than yours.

hbeck
11-16-2008, 06:16 PM
This is what he means:

The first and last legs of the pick six are almost always the most chaotic races on paper.

4th race usually a MSW with 80% first time starters.
9 race usually a MCL with a bunch of first time starters and/or many horses dropping in class from MSW races.

Scheduling these crap shoots in the pix six and moving shorter fields in stakes races to the 3rd race (out of the Pick Six) is a deliberate move from the racing secretary to induce carryovers.

Tom Barrister
11-16-2008, 06:55 PM
I don't read Crist's blog very often, so I'll need some information here:

Does Crist post these Pick-6 tickets in advance, or at least in advance of a few of the races, or does he wait until all of the races are over and then share the good news with us?

Light
11-16-2008, 06:56 PM
I can’t begin to stress how far off you are with this statement.

I am aware of the advantages of ABC tickets expecially in pk3's where you can get it multiple times. But the pk6 is a different animal. If you look at Crist's contenders for yesterday,he's got 6x4x6x6x6x4 contenders in the pk6 sequence to be put into ABC tickets. First of all if you dont think that many contenders is too many,you are not a real handicapper.

And you cannot mathematically cover all the possibilities as a caveman's ticket so your ticket structure had better be right. Condoning these kinds of tickets (on a regular basis) is no less than stupidity unless you have money to burn or you are playing a large carryover with some potential seperator horses that have a real chance as opposed to throwing darts.

My best run at a large pick 6 had a 1.5 million dollar pot. I put in a $64 tik.5 doubles and a single. My single hit but I missed one lonshot in another leg, I ran second. Nailed late.Got 5. It paid $1.1Million for 6 to Thomas Haddad( a former? trainer) and his pk6 syndicate. The point is I never would have gotten the 6th horse wether I cavemaned or ABC'd.

But I would have been at great risk to even get 5 using the ABC method rather than the cave tik.Your risk of getting 5 is multiplied in an ABC ticket when you miss one horse. Your risk of getting 5 stays the same in a caveman tik after missing one horse. Getting 5 in a large pk6 carryover needs to be considered since it can pay out enormously when only a few have 5. But before you or TLG accuse me of settling for less.No. I take catching 5 into consideration on large carryovers.

I got $3000 for my $64 tik. Crist would maybe have gotten the $3000 for a $1000 ticket.Very maybe. But 2-1 in a large Pk6? Laughable.Yeah,maybe he gets it multiple times but it all depends on his ABC's.And as I pointed out,he had no ABC combo for yesterdays tickets despite having all the horses.If he misses one horse,he's probably cooked and a small chance for 5 with ABC's scattered around. He's leaving more to the randomness of the ticket structure than he is relying on his own handicapping and feeling confident in a horse. The bottom line is that Crist can play around with 6 horses a race all he wants. But any self respecting handicapper,should not tolerate such frivolous tickets. What's the point of even handicapping with that number of selections.Just use ML and play lottery style.

DanG
11-16-2008, 07:08 PM
I am aware of the advantages of ABC tickets expecially in pk3's where you can get it multiple times. But the pk6 is a different animal. If you look at Crist's contenders for yesterday,he's got 6x4x6x6x6x4 contenders in the pk6 sequence to be put into ABC tickets. First of all if you dont think that many contenders is too many,you are not a real handicapper.

And you cannot mathematically cover all the possibilities as a caveman's ticket so your ticket structure had better be right. Condoning these kinds of tickets (on a regular basis) is no less than stupidity unless you have money to burn or you are playing a large carryover with some potential seperator horses that have a real chance as opposed to throwing darts.

You lost me here Light; or better put…maybe I lost myself. :confused:

Maybe I’m a little sleep deprived (Hollywood Friday nights have taken their toll) but you seem to be making a case for ABC tickets and criticizing them within the same post.

I’ll have to read this later when my concentration improves; it’s been a long weekend. Also; I don’t know what Crist's ticket structures have been your referring to; I’ve missed his blog for a while now. I was just commenting on Cave vs. a multi-ticket approach in general in the P6.

Thanks for the explanation.

hbeck
11-16-2008, 07:30 PM
Crist posts the tickets after the first or second leg of the Pick 6 has been run. I don't blame him. He would be a moron to share the potential riches his picks bring him with other players.

toetoe
11-16-2008, 07:45 PM
Light,

Several problems with your methodology and your "critical" thinking:

At least 90% of the time, a ticket with five doubles is worse than my pet play of four singles. You can point to any single time you cashed or almost cashed, but haven't we established that it's a long-run positive play or it's just action ?

Which brings me to my next point. You were underwhelmed with Crist's success last Sunday; now aren't you quick to condemn him for missing ?

To call all of his included horses contenders is to miss the point. All your circular reasoning can not deny that Crist MIGHT indeed have the horse you would NEVER have (by your own admission). That horse would probably not be a contender, but it MIGHT be on some tickets.

How does having money to burn mitigate the stupidity of the play ? I maintain that Crist does indeed have separators with real chances, and very little dart throwing. That's the whole idea. Don't you even want to congratulate him for the long-term winning play of missing the baby pick-six while saving money on the investment ?
Now, I admit that when a heat is a pure two-horse race, PLAY THOSE TWO. However, you found FIVE two-horse races that day ? That becomes a compromise between a single and a wide ticket in some of those races. I've been there myself, and kicked myself afterward.

toetoe
11-16-2008, 07:48 PM
Light,

Also, please explain the "use the morning line" methodology. Whereas I might insist on the third chalk or higher in many legs, I have a sinking feeling that you would throw in the favorites every leg, using such a method. :confused:

The Hawk
11-16-2008, 08:46 PM
I got $3000 for my $64 tik. Crist would maybe have gotten the $3000 for a $1000 ticket.Very maybe. But 2-1 in a large Pk6? Laughable.Yeah,maybe he gets it multiple times but it all depends on his ABC's.And as I pointed out,he had no ABC combo for yesterdays tickets despite having all the horses.If he misses one horse,he's probably cooked and a small chance for 5 with ABC's scattered around. He's leaving more to the randomness of the ticket structure than he is relying on his own handicapping and feeling confident in a horse. The bottom line is that Crist can play around with 6 horses a race all he wants. But any self respecting handicapper,should not tolerate such frivolous tickets. What's the point of even handicapping with that number of selections.Just use ML and play lottery style.

You're a minor leaguer comparing yourself with a Hall of Famer...two different ballgames. Crist isn't looking to cash $3,000 Pick 6 tickets; he knows if he does it's a consolation prize (taxable, to boot) while to you it's a big score. Not denigrating you, just pointing out that you're completely out of your league, as most of us are when it comes to Crist and the Pick 6.

pandy
11-16-2008, 08:52 PM
Steve has been on a roll lately and is playing with house money. This is not a typical situation to jump into the pool with a big ticket but if you're hot, why not?

I think he's a good handicapper and a brilliant horseplayer. There is a difference.

Nice hit.

You're right. I like that Crist is sharing his Pick 6 experiences with readers. He does a good job of explaining how he structures his tickets and the thinking that goes into it. Based on his picks, he doesn't seem like a great handicapper, probably not as good as some of the other guys who 'cap for the DRF, but it goes to show you that a smart bettor can win, because he certainly is a smart horseplayer.

The Hawk
11-16-2008, 09:23 PM
Yesterday Crist put in $880 in the pk6 and got 5 (I cant figure out how many times). The point is his ticket struture does not cover all caveman's bets. He had all the winners,but did not have a ticket structure of AACAAC which would have given him the prize.

http://cristblog.drf.com/

Obviously a caveman's picks on all his contenders would have been astronomical. But this is why (for us mere mortals without a wad of cash)you need to narrow down the number of your contenders.ABC tickets will not cover all possibilities,just cut down your expenses. Putting $1000 into a pk6 does not demonstrate expertise,but opulence. And ultimately caveman's ticket will beat any juggling ticket structure if you can narrow it down. Even Crist said in his blog:

Nice payoff of $14,379 for five second choices and a third choice

This was a smaller payout for a harder card ( in part due to the off track) than the $56K he got last Sunday. Size of payout also does not necessarily denote expertise. Although Crist is obviously no slouch in ability,I dont think he is a good example for your everyday horseplayer. What he does probably works fine for him. But that's where I draw the line.

Crist's theory is that you don't like all horses equally in the Pick 6 sequence; so why treat them as equals on a multi-leg ticket, by making a "caveman" ticket? It's logic that's tough to argue with.

If your best bets win, you have a chance to stretch out tougher legs, instead of diluting your ticket by giving horses you kind of like and horses you love equal footing. Then, in those inscrutable races, you can spread out farther. He uses this method for obvious reasons: 1) maximize your chances when you're dead-on right in one or two or three races, and 2) contrary to popular belief, he doesn't have an unlimited bankroll, so he can cut out extraneous tickets. If he did have a bottomless well of money he WOULD use the caveman ticket. And he'd probably be broke.

You can of course cite individual instances where he would have hit it with a caveman ticket, but instead "zig-zagged" his way out of it, but you can also point out that he saves thousands every time he plays by playing as he does, and he also hits his fair share by being able to use fringe horses due to his pressing his best bets.

I can't believe this is so hard for some to grasp. It's got to be either jealousy or ignorance, as there's no logical argument against what he's doing.

The Hawk
11-16-2008, 09:25 PM
You're right. I like that Crist is sharing his Pick 6 experiences with readers. He does a good job of explaining how he structures his tickets and the thinking that goes into it. Based on his picks, he doesn't seem like a great handicapper, probably not as good as some of the other guys who 'cap for the DRF, but it goes to show you that a smart bettor can win, because he certainly is a smart horseplayer.

Succinctly said, and a lesson that handicapping and betting are two different animals entirely.

Light
11-17-2008, 01:24 AM
You're a minor leaguer comparing yourself with a Hall of Famer...two different ballgames. Crist isn't looking to cash $3,000 Pick 6 tickets; he knows if he does it's a consolation prize (taxable, to boot) while to you it's a big score. Not denigrating you, just pointing out that you're completely out of your league, as most of us are when it comes to Crist and the Pick 6.

I agree 100%. He puts over 1 million dollars into the pk6 a year. He has been dubbed the pk6 king by Harvey Pack. He has been in Pk6 syndicates with A. Beyer and notables from the DRF.I am nobody. But I'm fine with that and wouldn't trade it for anything.

All I'm saying is this game comes down to handicapping. Even Crist has said all these pk6's don't seem to be about money.In a sense that's true. Money is the motivator,not the art.When it comes to handicapping,we are on a more level playing field. Crist has no class over anybody on that.Although he is a good capper,there are many as good or better. Especially those that dont have to use 6 horses a race.

Light
11-17-2008, 01:37 AM
Crist's theory is that you don't like all horses equally in the Pick 6 sequence; so why treat them as equals on a multi-leg ticket, by making a "caveman" ticket? It's logic that's tough to argue with.

I can't believe this is so hard for some to grasp. It's got to be either jealousy or ignorance, as there's no logical argument against what he's doing.

Crist will probably be the first to admit his method is not without its faults as he has lost some collosul Pk6's including one for over $350,000 due to this ABC construction. He lost that in the last leg. So I don't think it should be so hard for YOU to understand that this isn't always a good policy. It seems if YOU cant understand the counter arguments,you can only conclude one is jealous or envious. Very lame.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 09:07 AM
I agree 100%. He puts over 1 million dollars into the pk6 a year. He has been dubbed the pk6 king by Harvey Pack. He has been in Pk6 syndicates with A. Beyer and notables from the DRF.I am nobody. But I'm fine with that and wouldn't trade it for anything.

All I'm saying is this game comes down to handicapping. Even Crist has said all these pk6's don't seem to be about money.In a sense that's true. Money is the motivator,not the art.When it comes to handicapping,we are on a more level playing field. Crist has no class over anybody on that.Although he is a good capper,there are many as good or better. Especially those that dont have to use 6 horses a race.

Hey Light,

Bravo, for the willingness to stand your ground, and continue the effort to make your case. I think that I understand what you are saying.

What attracts you to the game, is the equality it offers to all of the nobodys out there. There is no other area where the paupers can compete with the princes, on a level playing field.

Without this component, the paupers tend to go to other pursuits.

Crist, through his exploits, demonstrates that the prince may have an advantage in becoming king, that the pauper does not have, unless he enjoys a large advantage in skill.

jdl

the little guy
11-17-2008, 09:15 AM
I agree 100%. He puts over 1 million dollars into the pk6 a year. He has been dubbed the pk6 king by Harvey Pack. He has been in Pk6 syndicates with A. Beyer and notables from the DRF.I am nobody. But I'm fine with that and wouldn't trade it for anything.

All I'm saying is this game comes down to handicapping. Even Crist has said all these pk6's don't seem to be about money.In a sense that's true. Money is the motivator,not the art.When it comes to handicapping,we are on a more level playing field. Crist has no class over anybody on that.Although he is a good capper,there are many as good or better. Especially those that dont have to use 6 horses a race.


You say a lot of irrational things to somehow fit your agenda, I'll give you that. However, randomly tossing out numbers, like $1 million dollars a year, doesn't strengthen your already weak case. You are now saying Steve bets an average of $3K every day of the year? Good luck with that.

I'll give it one more shot, I'm not sure why, but what the hell. Betting at the racetrack, no matter how small ( in a relative sense ) or in what pool, is about how you make the money you are willing to invest work for you. You talk in this thread as though Steve has some nebulous unending amount of money that he can, and is willing, to invest, but he chooses to skimp with it and constantly costs himself big scores. Quite frankly, this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. What Steve has done is construct a betting strategy which allows him what he believes is the best coverage for the limited amount of money he is willing to spend. Just because his " limited " amount is larger than yours does not mean it is infinite.

You talk of Pick-6s that you claim Steve should have hit, while ignoring that the tickets you are suggesting would have cost well in excess of $20K, as though in these cases he left money on the table. Nothing could be more preposterous. Once again, Steve's betting strategy, which is successful over time ( the ultimate decider ), is to try to cover horses based on their relative chances of winning in his opinion. Of course this can't be exact, but it is the best way that he sees to allow himself the opportunity to hit Pick-6s with his limited amount of committed capital.

Finally, you couldn't be more wrong that this game comes down to handicapping, and frankly this comment from you speaks volumes.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 09:26 AM
Hey Light,

Bravo, for the willingness to stand your ground, and continue the effort to make your case. I think that I understand what you are saying.






Yeah, there's nothing better than holding to your shaky ( I'm being nice ) ground on the internet.

classhandicapper
11-17-2008, 09:33 AM
Here's the difference....

Caveman tickets weigh every horse in each race the same, and since it is very unlikely that we consider every horse we use in every race as likely to win as the other horses we use in that race, this kind of ticket does not spend your dollars as wisely as possible. By using multiple tickets, you afford yourself the opportunity to use horses you can't use in caveman tickets, and possibly hit if you are smart in four or five races, and not quite as clever in the remaining race or two.

Winning comes down to how well you spend your available dollars....and assuming a finite bankroll, a caveman ticket does not do this as well as multiple tickets.

To me this is an endless conversation on which I will always somewhat disagree with the supposedly smartest players.

There is often no correlation between the horses I like best from a probability point of view vs. those I like best from a value point of view. That's a simple concept for any serious horseplayer to understand in a single race or even a Daily Double.

IMHO, some of the smartest players put WAY too much emphasis on actually hitting their multi-race tickets vs. trying to emphasize and structure combinations that contain a lot of value - while controlling risk with higher probability combinations of lesser value. In the end, I think many smart players leave off way too many combinations of massive value and add in way too many of little or no value hoping to win more often.

No one wants to tap out. So you have to understand your bankroll risk, tolerance for losing streaks etc... but I think there's a balance somewhere between the caveman approach and the approach advocated by some of the best multi-race players out there that is actually the most "profitable" over the long haul.

I don't have the stomach for much more than an occasional PIC3 and PIC4 because there are typically too many garbage can races where I feel I have no edge at all or they contain complications outside my range, but if I ever got serious I think I would play multi-races differently than most people do now (both good and bad players).

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 09:47 AM
Finally, you couldn't be more wrong that this game comes down to handicapping, and frankly this comment from you speaks volumes.

Well TLG,

I think that your willingness to hold your ground is equally admirable. Actually, I'm pulling for you to gain some more ground by hanging some flesh on the above. It does seem a concept worthy of discussion. Of course, that is, IMO.

jdl

raybo
11-17-2008, 09:57 AM
In the exotics, I take my well conceived shots. In the end I make a handsome profit. Which ones I hit or don't makes little difference. How you get there isn't nearly as important as getting there. It appears that Crist gets there.

That's the bottom line.

Light
11-17-2008, 01:04 PM
You say a lot of irrational things to somehow fit your agenda, I'll give you that. However, randomly tossing out numbers, like $1 million dollars a year, doesn't strengthen your already weak case. You are now saying Steve bets an average of $3K every day of the year? Good luck with that.

You want sources? How about the inside cover of Crist's book,Betting on Myself.

Crist....betting $1 million a year playing the pick six

I'll give it one more shot, I'm not sure why, but what the hell. Betting at the racetrack, no matter how small ( in a relative sense ) or in what pool, is about how you make the money you are willing to invest work for you. You talk in this thread as though Steve has some nebulous unending amount of money that he can, and is willing, to invest, but he chooses to skimp with it and constantly costs himself big scores.Quite frankly, this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

You need more proof?From the book Pg 97

one especially excruciating beat involved a day when I was in position to take an entire $342,000 carryover pool after my intricate array of tickets had weaved its way through several longshots.leaving me with only the favorite in the final leg. He was narrowly beaten by a perfectly logical 3-1 shot who was second choice on the race,a horse I would have had as well had things broken just slightly different

The break he was reffering to was the randomness of the ticket structure.



What Steve has done is construct a betting strategy which allows him what he believes is the best coverage for the limited amount of money he is willing to spend. Just because his " limited " amount is larger than yours does not mean it is infinite.

A limited amount of money? You need more quotes. Pg 96

but for $5 or $10 they could by 1 percent of my usual $500 to $1000 daily ticket.



You talk of Pick-6s that you claim Steve should have hit, while ignoring that the tickets you are suggesting would have cost well in excess of $20K, as though in these cases he left money on the table. Nothing could be more preposterous.

I don't why you keep misunderstand what I'm saying.I'm not faulting Crist for missing Pk6's. I'm saying I disagree with the ABC method because it does miss pk6's and is flawed. And instead of using ABC tickets to reduce the cost,why dont you try a little handicapping to narrow down the contenders.

Once again, Steve's betting strategy, which is successful over time ( the ultimate decider ), is to try to cover horses based on their relative chances of winning in his opinion. Of course this can't be exact, but it is the best way that he sees to allow himself the opportunity to hit Pick-6s with his limited amount of committed capital.

I understand that. What needs clarification is that it works for him with his high level of investment. It does not work for 99.9% of the rest of us because we don't have that large amount of capitol.

Finally, you couldn't be more wrong that this game comes down to handicapping,

Then what does it come down to? Oh and before you tell me,should I quote you how Crist would spend hours handicapping before his pk6's. Maybe you should also go and enlighten Beyer about how handicapping has nothing to do with this game.

and frankly this comment from you speaks volumes.

I like the way you say things where you leave it to the reader to figure out what you you are talking about. You say my comment speaks volumes but you dont utter a word about what you mean.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 01:09 PM
I don't have the book handy, I think someone who actually wanted to learn about the game borrowed it, but I stand by my original comment.

Beyer is a great bettor.....that is why he wins at the game. He, too, would tell you that good betting acumen is more important to success in this game than handicapping. Thanks for bringing him up to strengthen my argument.

I didn't read the rest, it was too scattered, but maybe someone else can let me know if I missed anything.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 01:35 PM
I don't have the book handy, I think someone who actually wanted to learn about the game borrowed it, but I stand by my original comment.

Beyer is a great bettor.....that is why he wins at the game. He, too, would tell you that good betting acumen is more important to success in this game than handicapping. Thanks for bringing him up to strengthen my argument.

I didn't read the rest, it was too scattered, but maybe someone else can let me know if I missed anything.

It seems like you missed the part below, I find it interesting because supposedly, I do it best.


For myself, I'd like to hear about how good betting acumen can grow from poor or incomplete handicapping. It seems that good betting acumen could only be developed from good handicapping.

I like the way you say things where you leave it to the reader to figure out what you you are talking about. You say my comment speaks volumes but you dont utter a word about what you mean.

jdl

Light
11-17-2008, 01:35 PM
but maybe someone else can let me know if I missed anything.

You missed the point. Have a nice day. :rolleyes:

The Hawk
11-17-2008, 01:53 PM
Crist will probably be the first to admit his method is not without its faults as he has lost some collosul Pk6's including one for over $350,000 due to this ABC construction. He lost that in the last leg. So I don't think it should be so hard for YOU to understand that this isn't always a good policy. It seems if YOU cant understand the counter arguments,you can only conclude one is jealous or envious. Very lame.

I can't understand the counterarguments because they have no basis in reality, as he doesn't have an unlimited bankroll. I'm not going to go through why AGAIN, because if you didn't get it yet you never will. You're CLEARLY envious. Sorry if it hit a nerve.

You missed the point. Have a nice day. :rolleyes:

Irony at it's best.

ryesteve
11-17-2008, 03:09 PM
The break he was reffering to was the randomness of the ticket structure.
Are you saying he structures his tickets randomly???

LottaKash
11-17-2008, 04:02 PM
I think this thread has yielded it's best points, and it is beginning to blur a bit....

But, I am sure very curious about how others may structure their Pick-3 and Pick-4 tickets......

best,

toetoe
11-17-2008, 05:26 PM
Understated and maybe forgotten in this thread is the TON of money saved when a non-contender/non-backup wins, thereby killing the ticket. In those scenarios, the smaller the ticket, the better. This happens the majority of the time, and the bad beats from the pared-down tickets are potentially ruinous only from a psychological standpoint. The financial attack is sound.

So, while it's at least POSSIBLE for Crist and Light to agree on main horses --- of course, those are all that Light's ticket would have --- Crist's task from that point would be to separate pretenders with at least SOME shot from no-hopers. I've always thought that a ticket treating some of the favorites as backups would make sense, as sometimes a chalkalicious ticket is disappointing when it hits. Make no mistake, it's about the cumulative size of the pots, not the number of pots per se. Getting the hit rate above the 1% mark puts the handicapper at the threshold of the "big dance," and with prudent ticket paring profits are possible, despite the three big obstacles pertaining to capital:

1) usurious takeout at almost all tracks;

2) 5/6 paying only 3/7 of 6/6 (related to {1});

3) I.R.S. withholding on winning tickets ( :bang: ).

Light
11-17-2008, 05:54 PM
Are you saying he structures his tickets randomly???

Yes and no. His ticket structure is to his strategy. But he has no control of how the outcome affects his strategy.This is his setup:

Main Ticket
1 A/A/A/A/A/A
SINGLE BACKUP
2 B/A/A/A/A/A
3 A/C/A/A/A/A
4 A/A/C/A/A/A
5 A/A/A/BC/A/A
6 A/A/A/A/C/A
7 A/A/A/A/A/BC
DOUBLE BACKUP
8 B/A/A/B/A/A
9 B/A/A/A/A/B
10 A/A/A/B/A/B

The A B or C's can have a single or multiple number of horses they represent.So Saturday,the winning pattern that won would have required him to have an AACAAC ticket which he does not have.Now had his A horse won the 3rd leg of the pk6,he would have caught it with ticket #7. The randomness is who wins which leg makes a big difference on wether he cashes a pk6.Even if he has included the horse he misses ,it may not be on the ticket he needs it to be on. In other words if all his contenders win,he is guaranteed 5 out of 6, not 6 out of 6.

I am speaking from personal experience about this. I have a book that shows me how to do high priced pk6's for a fraction of the cost. In my experience,it turns a good handicapper into one who is dependant more on luck of who wins which leg on which ticket when in reality you may have caught all legs. So from my experience,I'm giving this method a thumbs down.I've moved on.

Guys like Hawk and TLG are turning this into a personal issue instead of anything they have actual experience with. The reapeated pattern I've seen on this board is when one doesnt know the subject at hand, one resorts to personal insults to make up for one's impotence on the subject. Statements like I'm jealous (Hawk) or that my disagreement speaks volumes about me(whatever insult that means TLG),are just childish. If you cant argue the technicalities of your point of view in a non derogatory manner,you shouldn't get involved.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 06:01 PM
I think this thread has yielded it's best points, and it is beginning to blur a bit....

But, I am sure very curious about how others may structure their Pick-3 and Pick-4 tickets......

best,

That's the thing, LK, it is a potentially wonderful thread that could yield much more. Especially for any player wanting to attack the P6. For myself, I find the statements made that suggest handicapping is less critical then one might think very interesting. And, worthy of exploration.

The problem seems to be, that for purposes of the P6, one needs to recognize several horses that are negative by the usual criteria, as possible for a P6.

The analyst that is most comfortable within certain boundaries, needs to borrow some perspective from the wild-eyed gambler, and then both of these mindsets have to meld with each other enough to decide on a sensable ticket structure that both mindsets can agree on and live with.

I think the most difficult thing for any player to do is to vary his/her perspective to the degree necessary.

jdl

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 06:09 PM
Well stated, Light :ThmbUp:

jdl

toetoe
11-17-2008, 06:18 PM
Light,

*I* know that *YOU* know that I mean no personal harm, but you satisfy both conditions of your own complaint:

1) weak argument, and

2) personal attacks.

The point of a *C* horse is usually to save a ticket's chances, but only with that one *C* horse. If two *C* horses win, it's possible that the handicapping was faulty, but it's more likely that it was just one of those maddening results that happen all too often. The optimist sees that the ticket came one horse closer than a Light-style ticket (presumably all *A* horses), and the cost of the ticket did not balloon outrageously.

Consider what you are saying, Light. "Don't play miss-one or miss-two tickets, but don't play more than $36 or $48 or $(?)." That is a dreary, bleak picture indeed.

toetoe
11-17-2008, 06:24 PM
Another thing, Light. Of COURSE a bettor has no control over the outcome of a race, short of banging the ALL button. What the ... :confused:

ryesteve
11-17-2008, 06:36 PM
Saturday,the winning pattern that won would have required him to have an AACAAC ticket which he does not have.
So then randomness has nothing to do with it. If somewhere he was playing other tickets that had 4 A's and 2 C's, then you'd have a point. But clearly he doesn't feel that going that deep yields a positive expectation... and given how expensive it'd be to include 3 tiers of contenders in multiple races, I'd have to agree.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 06:58 PM
I'm honestly curious, how many Pick-6s have you hit, and how far ahead are you in life with this bet?

Indulto
11-17-2008, 07:13 PM
I'm honestly curious, how many Pick-6s have you hit, and how far ahead are you in life with this bet?tlg,
Are you willing to answer the same question? ;)

the little guy
11-17-2008, 07:25 PM
tlg,
Are you willing to answer the same question? ;)

Sure. While I don't know the exact number, but am sure it is over 20, I do know that most were in the lower four figures. One was low five figures and two were over $140K.

I used to play it a lot more often than I do now. I've played only a handful this past year.

Light
11-17-2008, 07:47 PM
I'm honestly curious, how many Pick-6s have you hit, and how far ahead are you in life with this bet?

Again,you are turning this personal. If I tell you I've hit some nice ones,would that make you happy? Would my words suddenly carry more weight? And if I tell you I havent hit none,my words would become meaningless? This is classism on your part and has nothing to do with the subject.Wether I have or haven't hit any pick 6's does not change the arguments. I could just suck and not be capable of testing a method. Or I could just be really good at handicapping and able to breach the flaws of the ABC system. My own experience with the ABC method is that it cost me more than the savings in tickets will ever cover.($250k) Are you doubting than someone can have a negative experience with this method? I didn't realize there was a prerequisite to have hit a certain number of pk6's in order to argue my point.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 07:50 PM
Sure. While I don't know the exact number, but am sure it is over 20, I do know that most were in the lower four figures. One was low five figures and two were over $140K.

I used to play it a lot more often than I do now. I've played only a handful this past year.

If you don't mind my asking out of honest curiousity, where were you at in life when the first was accomplished? I honestly would like to know how close to the dream were the circumstances.

jdl

Light
11-17-2008, 07:53 PM
Another thing, Light. Of COURSE a bettor has no control over the outcome of a race, short of banging the ALL button. What the ... :confused:

I didn't say that. I said

But he has no control of how the outcome affects his strategy.....The randomness is who wins which leg makes a big difference on wether he cashes a pk6.Even if he has included the horse he misses ,it may not be on the ticket he needs it to be on. In other words if all his contenders win,he is guaranteed 5 out of 6, not 6 out of 6.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 07:55 PM
Again,you are turning this personal. If I tell you I've hit some nice ones,would that make you happy? Would my words suddenly carry more weight? And if I tell you I havent hit none,my words would become meaningless? This is classism on your part and has nothing to do with the subject.Wether I have or haven't hit any pick 6's does not change the arguments. I could just suck and not be capable of testing a method. Or I could just be really good at handicapping and able to breach the flaws of the ABC system. My own experience with the ABC method is that it cost me more than the savings in tickets will ever cover.($250k) Are you doubting than someone can have a negative experience with this method? I didn't realize there was a prerequisite to have hit a certain number of pk6's in order to argue my point.


It's not even remotely personal and I don't see how you could say that through a keyboard.

You have laid out a lot of misguided ideas in this thread and I think whether or not you have hit any Pick-6s is very relevent to the discussion.....because Steve Crist has hit a great many Pick-6s using the very method you continue to confusingly denigrate and thus I think it is important for us to know how well your system has worked. His does....I know it for a fact.

Horseplaying is a combination of handicapping skill and betting acumen. If you have the former, his system gives you an optimum opportunity to make money given a reasonably limited amount of money to spend, and I would like to know if your's does the same. Surely, given the great lengths you have gone here to tear apart his methods, your's must be superior in real life.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 07:57 PM
If you don't mind my asking out of honest curiousity, where were you at in life when the first was accomplished? I honestly would like to know how close to the dream were the circumstances.

jdl


If someone can provide an English translation I would be happy to try to answer.

Light
11-17-2008, 08:04 PM
TLG

You said a few posts ago,you did not read all my post(s).That's becoming obvious. I'll repeat what I said and it is the reason why the ABC method is flawed. It cost me $250,000. Can you get that through your head? How much more clearer do I have to be. Try recouping that with your ABC savings.And that wasn't all. I have had several smaller pk6's go by the wayside due to ABC. Why should I tell you my successes? I'm talking about failure.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 08:07 PM
TLG

You said a few posts ago,you did not read all my post(s).That's becoming obvious. I'll repeat what I said and it is the reason why the ABC method is flawed. It cost me $250,000. Can you get that through your head? How much more clearer do I have to be. Try recouping that with your ABC savings.And that wasn't all. I have had several smaller pk6's go by the wayside due to ABC. Why should I tell you my successes? I'm talking about failure.


So, you could have spent the same dollars you spent with an ABC method on another method and won over $250K? Wow.....that's incredible. You'll have to expound on that.

So, what was the story.....you had X dollars and two different strategies laid out for that same X dollars and you settled on the ABC method and would have won with the other?

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 08:08 PM
If someone can provide an English translation I would be happy to try to answer.

Were you betting the rent, or two thirds of the P3 that you just cashed?

jdl

the little guy
11-17-2008, 08:12 PM
Were you betting the rent, or two thirds of the P3 that you just cashed?

jdl


I'm not a linguistics expert. What are you trying to say?

Light
11-17-2008, 08:16 PM
TLG

Riddle me this. Crist says the ABC method cost him $342,000 in his book,Betting on Myself which BTW,I won in a contest on this board. I lost $250,000 from ABC. That comes to $592,000 collectively that we lost from this betting method. How much more do we have to lose before you can accept a little criticism about it?

the little guy
11-17-2008, 08:18 PM
TLG

Riddle me this. Crist says the ABC method cost him $342,000 in his book,Betting on Myself which BTW,I won in a contest on this board. I lost $250,000 from ABC. That comes to $592,000 collectively that we lost from this betting method. How much more do we have to lose before you can accept a little criticism about it?


I am guessing you have taken Steve's point out of context, or at least used it as only part of a bigger discussion, but I will bring it up with him when I speak with him tomorrow, but what I am trying to find out is how exactly it supposedly cost you $250K. That remains a mystery.

njcurveball
11-17-2008, 08:20 PM
. I lost $250,000 from ABC.

I really missed your point with this one. Unless this ABC method supplied all the picks and the EXACT way to structure the tickets, you are really arguing against yourself by saying you are a proven loser for such a large amount.

DeanT
11-17-2008, 08:24 PM
If someone loses money on the ABC method I assume it is because he has the wrong A's, B's and C's.

Light
11-17-2008, 08:28 PM
I am trying to find out is how exactly it supposedly cost you $250K. That remains a mystery.

If you understood the mechanics of the ABC method,you wouldn't be asking me this question.Once again,you are not reading .I will repeat.

The ABC just cost Crist $14k on Saturday. Read his blog of how he didn't have an AACAAC ticket and perhaps you can understand how the ABC method works and how it cost him $14k and cost me $250K.The difference is mine just had a bigger pot.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 08:35 PM
I'm not a linguistics expert. What are you trying to say?

It's a question, were you well established in life when you won the first P6, or were you struggling to get over the hump?

jdl

the little guy
11-17-2008, 08:35 PM
If you understood the mechanics of the ABC method,you wouldn't be asking me this question.Once again,you are not reading .I will repeat.

The ABC just cost Crist $14k on Saturday. Read his blog of how he didn't have an AACAAC ticket and perhaps you can understand how the ABC method works and how it cost him $14k and cost me $250K.The difference is mine just had a bigger pot.


So now I don't understand the ABC method? That's rich.

You are distorting the truth to fit your agenda. The ABC method did not cost Steve anything this weekend. By your logic every single person who ever plays any Pick-6 is " cost " a win one way or another.

Once again, the ABC method is an efficient way to use various selections with the dollars alloted. Because more money could have combined those horses in a winning way, assuming the actual play did not win, does not mean the bettor was " cost " the Pick-6 when they should have won.

Also, remember, dollars saved over time, are essentially dollars won.

the little guy
11-17-2008, 08:39 PM
It's a question, were you well established in life when you won the first P6, or were you struggling to get over the hump?

jdl


What does " well established " mean?

I was 26, had a few dollars in my pocket, and hit an $8,800 Pick-6 on Labor Day of 2008. It ended with Evening Kris winning the Jerome.

Steve 'StatMan'
11-17-2008, 08:45 PM
If you understood the mechanics of the ABC method,you wouldn't be asking me this question.Once again,you are not reading .I will repeat.

The ABC just cost Crist $14k on Saturday. Read his blog of how he didn't have an AACAAC ticket and perhaps you can understand how the ABC method works and how it cost him $14k and cost me $250K.The difference is mine just had a bigger pot.

OK, glad to know it didn't cost you $250k directly out of pocket. Sad that you didn't hit a $250k pick 6. A $250k Pick 6 is always a big life-changer. However, how much would you have given back through the windows if you always went deep in every leg of every Pick 6 ticket? That's the trade-off.

For long-term profits, one either needs a lot of big scores, or fewer losing combinations, preferably both. One has to be willing to make trade-offs of few combinations covered to reduce the unlikely winning combinations, or accept the price of the cave-man style tickets and risk the blows to the bankroll, as both style tickets will still lose more often than they win. How many miracle tickets can we afford to cover on a daily basis?

Remember, if you really want to be the combo, bet it. If you don't, then don't, though it does hurt when some get away, and the bigger those are, the harder it is to accept. Most days, there will always be a horse that we didn't include that will ruin at least our 6-of-6 if not our 5-of-6. We can't afford to go All/All/All/All/All/All, so what combinations of the possiblities do you want to leave out, for a reasonable ticket price?

Light
11-17-2008, 09:11 PM
You are distorting the truth to fit your agenda. The ABC method did not cost Steve anything this weekend. By your logic every single person who ever plays any Pick-6 is " cost " a win one way or another.

Once again, the ABC method is an efficient way to use various selections with the dollars alloted. Because more money could have combined those horses in a winning way, assuming the actual play did not win, does not mean the bettor was " cost " the Pick-6 when they should have won.

Also, remember, dollars saved over time, are essentially dollars won.
Today 05:35 PM

When you recoup the $600,000 lost from the 3 ABC pk6's I just mentioned,because of smaller tickets savings, let me know.I did not use anywhere near 6 horses a race as Crist does when I lost the $250k with the ABC sytem and ABC still failed.I could have afforded a caveman ticket but I was too cheap. I take the ultimate responsibility for not hitting it ,but ABC is clearly flawed and I grow tired of repeating myself.

You're going in circles because most of what I said is not being understood by you. I understand your position,but its clear you dont understand mine. Your last line shows my words fall on deaf ears.

jonnielu
11-17-2008, 09:12 PM
What does " well established " mean?

I was 26, had a few dollars in my pocket, and hit an $8,800 Pick-6 on Labor Day of 2008. It ended with Evening Kris winning the Jerome.

I believe that there is an advantage for the guy that is more financially comfortable as opposed to the guy that has 2 $50's and looking to get comfortable with one of them.

With your experience, would you say that it is an advantage to have a few more bucks to comfortably play with?

jdl

The Hawk
11-17-2008, 09:27 PM
When you recoup the $600,000 lost from the 3 ABC pk6's I just mentioned,because of smaller tickets savings, let me know.I did not use anywhere near 6 horses a race as Crist does when I lost the $250k with the ABC sytem and ABC still failed.I could have afforded a caveman ticket but I was too cheap. I take the ultimate responsibility for not hitting it ,but ABC is clearly flawed and I grow tired of repeating myself.

You're going in circles because most of what I said is not being understood by you. I understand your position,but its clear you dont understand mine. Your last line shows my words fall on deaf ears.

First off, I said nothing personal. I said people were jealous, and I stand by that. You chose to take it personally, and the fact that you lost out on a big ticket is why, obviously.

The fact that you're bitter about missing out on the Pick 6 is clouding your judgment, and you still fail to grasp this:

You're not Crist. Your bankroll is such that you can't afford to play this particular bet using this method, not as often as he does. It works for him. It doesn't work for you. He's willing to risk losing out on big tickets because he "zigzagged" himself out of them. It's happened, he's acknowledged it stings, and he's gone on to hit several more, which he may not have had the money to play if he had been making caveman tickets for 20 years.

You're not able to accept the risk of losing out on a big score using this method. Right there, that tells you, you're out of your league on this. Your point seems to be that it had its flaws. Of course it does, for the reasons stated! We all know that! But you don't seem to get that playing it using all contenders is a costly proposition. Crist is able to streamline his plays, and the cost is exposure to a couple of fringe horses winning and blowing up his ticket.

I don't know how this has become what it's become, but can we at least agree that Crist is having an unbelievable year, whether you agree with his methods or not?

turfnsport
11-17-2008, 10:58 PM
I believe that there is an advantage for the guy that is more financially comfortable as opposed to the guy that has 2 $50's and looking to get comfortable with one of them.

With your experience, would you say that it is an advantage to have a few more bucks to comfortably play with?

jdl

Why don't you borrow a couple of $50 bills and try it out...Let us know how it works out.

Pace Cap'n
11-17-2008, 11:25 PM
My guess is that Crist uses six horses not because he has to, but because he wants to.

LottaKash
11-17-2008, 11:29 PM
This whole thread is going in circles.....Many here keep finding ways to say the same darn thing, only different.....:jump:

Light
11-18-2008, 12:25 AM
First off, I said nothing personal....
The fact that you're bitter

Try not to contradict yourself.

OverlayHunter
11-18-2008, 02:39 AM
Dan G,

In post 166 of this thread you said: "That “random occurrence” philosophy is critical to this expensive / complex wager. The largest hit I’ve been involved in used that exact strategy. We were alive to 9 runners in the last leg and in truth…I thought we only “needed” 4 to have it covered."

When you have a moment, could you please expand some on how to deal with the random occurrence? Thanks for the help.

jonnielu
11-18-2008, 06:42 AM
This whole thread is going in circles.....Many here keep finding ways to say the same darn thing, only different.....:jump:

LK, you continue to distinguish yourself as a keen observer.

I think it goes in a circle much like racing itself is doing. I wonder if it is just coincidence, or if there is common cause.

I find it interesting to see that the publisher of the DRF uses 4 to 8 horses in some races, while Andy is unable to just tell Light that a lean ticket featuring the top two figures would have an above average shot. And , be correct.

jdl

The Hawk
11-18-2008, 08:49 AM
Try not to contradict yourself.

Why is that personal? Read your own posts, it's pretty obvious. It also explains a lot about the position you've taken.