4 picks for Fri 11/7

[Ray2000]

Hard to find anything today, looked at the Yankee Cruiser filly "Cruzin Inya Jammys"
going against the open class mares in Woodbine R6 but backed off any bet.
Will watch the board, 16 exacta box may be playable. I'll stick with these...

ML>7, Betting Win, Str Tri, and Exacta 3 Horse Box

Flamboro R11........598 Governor Killean 10/1 Freedom Isnt Free 3/1 Welcam 4/1
Best TMaster ratings big class drop won't get 10/1, horse is not sharp... should pass

Lebanon R10.........641 April Thirty 10/1 Halvah Heaven 6/1 Evening Snow 8/1
Last 2 races weren't all that bad from the 6 and 8 post, Does have 6 wins
and will get a decent price if she gets to the winner's circle.

Meadows R4..........432 Allamerican Hope 8/1 She'S So 6/1 Primarosa 9/2
Always on the board when Wilder drives. All stats sufficient

Yonkers R5..........423 Aristotle 8/1 Waterfront Success 5/1 Glossy N 3/1
Claimed for 9.4K last week, in for the optional tag price 15.6K tonite but a good spot
for him. that 1:58.2 last week was on a dull track

Good Luck To All!

[Ray2000]

+13

Flamboro R11........957 ...........Exacta $19.00
Lebanon R10.........435 no hit
Meadows R4..........316 no hit
Yonkers R5..........231 ...........Exacta $58.00

Win Bets $8 loss
Exactas $48 in, $77 back
Trifectas $8 loss

[LottaKash]

Hey Ray, EXactas, EXactas, EXactas............:jump:

best,

[Ray2000]

Exactas bailed me out..

It was a odd night Johnny, my 2nd choices all won :bang:
Flmd $4.40
Leb. $24.80
Mea $14.40
Yr... $16.20

Best of Luck to ya....

[LottaKash]

Exactas bailed me out..

It was a odd night Johnny, my 2nd choices all won :bang:
Flmd $4.40
Leb. $24.80
Mea $14.40
Yr... $16.20

Best of Luck to ya....

Win & PLACE ??....Ray you have this affinity, why not capitalize on it, at least experimentally.....

best

[Ray2000]

Actually I have been experimenting with a computer program to watch the odds board and look for place pool oddities. Based on the old handicapping theory that if a horse has x% of the money in the win pool then he should have about the same % in the place pool unless the "smart money" is coming in on the win side. If so then the PLACE bet is the overlay. So far the last minute pool totals, change too much to do anything, and barn money is probably being hidden elsewhere, (Exotic wheels or off shore).

[LottaKash]

Actually I have been experimenting with a computer program to watch the odds board and look for place pool oddities. Based on the old handicapping theory that if a horse has x% of the money in the win pool then he should have about the same % in the place pool unless the "smart money" is coming in on the win side. If so then the PLACE bet is the overlay. So far the last minute pool totals, change too much to do anything, and barn money is probably being hidden elsewhere, (Exotic wheels or off shore).


Ray you are probably right on all points.....Over the years I have tried to mimic those that are smarter than I on particular points of betting....Meaning I would only bet place when I was convinced that he was an overlay...trouble is with this, and it is as you have stated, that trying to predict the crazy last minute swings in the modern day ADW arena causes much confusion and hedging on the hedge bets....

Nowadays, I just bet to Win & Place period, and take the consequences of my decision........The other day I had a horse that was 3/1 thruout the betting and then in the last minute he plunged to 7/5...This horse horse lost a close photo, but payed $5.70 for the place, and I get this alot....So now I mostly use the place slot as insurance, (it helps keep the pressure off) as many of my selections may lose their race, but they are usually right there at the end, unless of course they are a victim to a busted speed pace or an out of position error pace......

Ray I would be very curious (seein as you kash a lot of exactas) what your flat place bet ledger would show.....

best,

[Ray2000]

LK

My database doesn't include Place return on Pick 1 when finishing 2nd only the place price on the winner. You've got me interested enough to pull the results to check it out. I'll post it later.
I suspect it will be bad for all my wagered races (like win bets below) but for Picks with ML>7, might be surprising.

Wagered.............Returned......P/L..........ROI

all win bets (since 1/1/05)
$73,840 .......... $73,346 .......$(494).......-0.7%

win bets when ML on Pick1 > 7 (since 1/1/05)
$18,906 ........... $21,172 ..... $2,266 .......12.0%

win bets posted here (3/1/08 - 10/31/08)
$2,286.00 ........ $2,744.30 ... $458.30 .......20.0%

[LottaKash]

Very cool Ray.....Will be waiting to see.......:jump:

best,

[Ray2000]

Johnny
I looked at place betting my pick 1 since 1/1/06 and the Morning Line has to be >10 before any good results can be had. I only play races where the sum of the ML's on my top three horses is >14.5, but sometimes the ML on pick 1 is 5/2 and the place betting makes no sense on low priced horses.

Data

all place bets (since 1/1/06, I didn't check '05)
$62,228.......... $59,575 .......$(2653).......-4.3%

place bets when ML on Pick1 > 7
$16,198 ......... $16,100 ..... $98 ...........0.6%

place bets when ML on Pick1 > 10
$4,862 .......... $5,289 ..... $427 ...........8.8%

I best stick to my Str Trifectas with Exacta backups:)