My view on Handicapping.

[joeprunes]

The way I look at it is unless you a beginner we all share the same ability in handicapping. This is a very intelligent site,so we basically know the game. We all could look at a form ,spot who`s the pace,close and class. We look for all the angles, key races,trainer ,trainer jockey,turf to dirt etc. you get the idea. Now what seperates the winner from the loser. I really dont know is it luck did I miss some thing ,I look no I didnt so why did I lose? Am I damned or is it luck? I was talking to Suff on the phone about a race I said I like the 2,3 and they come of a key race and they really look good, he said I like the 8 and 5 they too come of the same race so I bet them also yep 8,5 cold now why didnt the 2 or 3 come in the money? You ever had 3 horses in a race and throw one out and yes he wins ,Why is that? You play the inner track and first flight horses always win so you play a horse you like that competes in the first flight what happens slow pace horse comes off the pace you lose why is that? Oh well I got this off my chest felling sorry for my self so what is it luck or what?

[rmania]

Originally posted by joeprunes
...This is a very intelligent site,so we basically know the game. We all could look at a form ,spot who`s the pace,close and class. We look for all the angles, key races,trainer ,trainer jockey,turf to dirt etc. you get the idea. Now what seperates the winner from the loser. I really dont know is it luck did I miss some thing ,I look no I didnt so why did I lose? Am I damned or is it luck?...

I'm probably in the minority here, but I refuse to look for angles. IMO, if I base my decision on averages (which is what I would be doing) I am placing too much emphasis on luck.

[thoroughbred]

Originally posted by joeprunes
The way I look at it is unless you a beginner we all share the same ability in handicapping. This is a very intelligent site,so we basically know the game. We all could look at a form ,spot who`s the pace,close and class. We look for all the angles, key races,trainer ,trainer jockey,turf to dirt etc. you get the idea. Now what seperates the winner from the loser. I really dont know is it luck did I miss some thing ,I look no I didnt so why did I lose? Am I damned or is it luck? I was talking to Suff on the phone about a race I said I like the 2,3 and they come of a key race and they really look good, he said I like the 8 and 5 they too come of the same race so I bet them also yep 8,5 cold now why didnt the 2 or 3 come in the money? You ever had 3 horses in a race and throw one out and yes he wins ,Why is that? You play the inner track and first flight horses always win so you play a horse you like that competes in the first flight what happens slow pace horse comes off the pace you lose why is that? Oh well I got this off my chest felling sorry for my self so what is it luck or what?


Joe Prunes:

Your message does a good job of describing the frustration of handicapping.

You listed the factors that are known. The answer to your questions are based on the factors that are not Known, or at best, not known to an accuracy that can lead to confidence.

Here are some examples of the unkowns. I'm sure that other members here can readily add to the list.

The specific physical condition of the horse at race time.
The condition of the track. All we know are things like sloppy, fast, good, etc. But within each of these categories, we don't know by how much.
The instructions the trainer has given to the jockey. Does the trainer intend to use the race as a conditioner, or a work out, or to seriously try to win?
The weight the horse carried during workouts.
The lengths behind the leader is an estimate at best, making time figure estimates inaccurate.
The true capabilities of first time starters
How first time medication will affect the particular horse. (We know in humans, for example, that medicaton effects are different in different individuals.)
How will pace play out in the race; will a closer try, today, to take the lead, and vice versa?
What is the real reason a horse is dropping in class? Is to grab a quick purse, or is the trainer trying to unload the horse?

The list goes on and on.

So, as I said, handicapping can be very frustrating when, because of such unknowns, the race doesn't play out as we expected. But it is still fun, and a challenge. What we have to do, is work hard at analyzing the factors we do know, and accept the win percentage, (and loss percentage), that results.

[formula_2002]

joeprunes

First let me say, i had wondered where that t-rex had ran off to.
Last I saw him, we were at dinner together (I was the meal), but I managed to break away on my speedy steed...

Now why you should not get frustrated over losing a race.

Regardless what most players think, this game, ultimately, is all about odds, and edge.

If you were fortunate to make 20% playing 2-1 shots, you know that you are going to lose 60% of the time.

Say somone can make 30% on 15-1 shots. He has to be prepared to lose 92% of the time.

I have a have an inter-active table on my web page.
THIS TABLE WILL TELL YOU HOW MANY TIMES YOUR BANKROLL WILL TURN PLUS OR MINIUS DEPENDING DEPENDING ON YOUR EDGE, ODDS AND STARING BANK ROLL.

It will also tell you what % of races you can expect to win in many sets of 100 races.

[Fastracehorse]

I think there are 2 major road-blocks for most players:

1) Really understanding money management.

2) Filtering all the noise and deciphering long-term value angles, which paradoxically could be short-term gains.

You are right, most people on here are probably pretty good horse players, but that's not good enough.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Afteralll, luck works against you and a winning angle therefore has alot of merit - long-term that is.

fffastt

[joeprunes]

Thoroughbred.. I understand what your saying I cover ALL aspects of the game its still not enough.

Fastracehorse its not about money

Lets take for instince our pk 4 contest ,all good hadicappers all have different horses as picks most had the same problem,throw out a horse he wins do an all you get the favorite, one guy had to go to work handicaped in 10 minutes, bang hits the p4 its things like that I`m talking about so is it luck or faith

Formula .. you should of seen me trying to get trex over to PA

[hurrikane]

I think it is two things.

Information. One thing that separates one punter picking a different horse from anouther is they are using and processing different information.

Mentallity. this is a big part of the game. I am beginning to believe that this alone could be the difference between winners and losers or the break even player.

IMHO

[keilan]

Observation at Aqu Inner – If the capper cannot decipher the weight of the track after the 1st race when it either rains or snows he’s in for a long day usually.

There is a saying in racing “ horses for courses “ and that is never truer than at tracks like Aqueduct when the track changes.

Some of the other major tracks around the country seal the track when moisture is expected and the sloppy track continues to favour the front running horses so there handicapping style doesn’t require any adjustment.

The weight of the track points the astute handicapper onto the right style of runner, based on the expected pace match-up.

This is similar to having 1 or 2 (E) type being late scratches. The handicapper better re-visit the remainder of the runners and possibly select another horse.

This post suggests that sometimes all the fine work you have done before arriving at the track is not going to serve you well today and you had better be able to re-tool and adapt to changing situations or return home with empty pockets.

There are many other things of course but I only pointed out two,
that are not often discussed.

[rmania]

Originally posted by joeprunes
...one guy had to go to work handicaped in 10 minutes, bang hits the p4 its things like that I`m talking about so is it luck or faith...

I'm not surprised and I don't think it was all luck.
I for one have been guilty, on many occasions, of over-handicapping a race(s).

Another fault I used to be guilty of (while attempting to cap an entire card using the Form) was not putting as much effort into the last race as I did the first race.

As a result, I was pretty much right-on in the first few races and bringing up the rear in the last few.:rolleyes:

[alysheba88]

"Another fault I used to be guilty of (while attempting to cap an entire card using the Form) was not putting as much effort into the last race as I did the first race.

As a result, I was pretty much right-on in the first few races and bringing up the rear in the last few."


Great point. Think we have all been guilty of that one. One thing I do now is to handicap the races in groups. I do poorly in the lower level allowance races (the non winners of two type) so try to get those first while I am fresh. Regardless of race order. The the cheaper claiming races, starting with sprints. If there are turf races I usually do them near the end. Lastly I will do the maiden races on the card Why last? They are my specialties, I know I can stay fresh and interested in them.

Typically the last race is a wide open nondescript cheap claiming affair. So waiting to handicap that race last, after you have already spent hours on the rest of the card is hard.

In short, try handicapping groups of races, rather than focusing on a straight 1-10 in order approach. Save your specialties for last and start off on the races that give you trouble.

[Kentucky Bred]

Joe:

First, there is absolutely no substitute for just experience. There are things I look for automatically, almost without thinking, based upon 25 years of watching and betting races. I don't know your age or level, but pure experience and adjustments based upon research is paramount.

For me, things began to change when I realized what I was about in handicapping. In the old days, I would decide to go to Santa Anita to bet the horses. I would look at the card and then figure out which horse to pick in every single race. Maidens? No problem, I've got a method for those. Low-priced claimers? No problem, I've got a method for those. And on and on it went. First the DD, then the exacta box, then the win bet etc., etc.

What was I about then? What was my focus? You will find on this site many excellent win handicappers, exotic bettors, serial bettors (DD, pick-3's and now pick-4's) Pick-6 bettors, place and show parlay bettors. I would venture a pure guess that those among us that are true long-term winners know what they are about. They don't just take on the next race--they are looking for their spots and doing what they do best. Simulcasting has presented (along with broadband Internet access) the greatest improvement to horseplaying opportunity EVER! It is that significant in my opinion.

I like to make win bets on longshots and one-way only exactas to underneath horses. It is what I do. I couldn't bet a strong, can't miss 2-1 shot with your money (ok, I would do it with your money, I guess). I used to bet them all the time. They looked like the winner in the race. I was trying to win RACES instead focusing on the ROI--the true bottom line.

One more factor. I've said this before, but this is a random game. Suff will tell you, I'm sure, that his 8 and 5 horse could have lost...and does quite frequently. He just hit a monster longshot horse and posted it before the race. He loses those too, as you know. What did he say afterwords? He said that sometimes the horses just jump off the page at him and he doesn't understand why. That is all of his many years of experience working through his subconscience to ID longshot horses that have a shot at a price.

A lot of things have to go right with a race to hit horses that payoff well. If I could respectfully offer some advice: Spend some time really thinking about what is your handicapping focus. What are you comfortable playing with your handicapping. That was the beginning of my turn around as a winning player. The "luck" will come when you focus on consistently doing the right things according to your plan.

Being a part of a winning handicapping community here at P/A is an opportunity I never had. I didn't ever know a winning horseplayer when I was young. Through this site I can "meet" them all the time. Your change will come MUCH quicker as you stay here and learn every day from great horseplayers.

Kentucky Bred

[jay22@NOLA]

I've enjoyed everyone's input on this thread, and think that most of the key bases have been covered.

I would confirm the earlier point about money management, and the closely related issue about when and how to play a race. I hit a huge trifecta a few years back, and got into a rut of handicapping cards for big trifecta possibilities. Of course, big drinks, though satisfying, are few and far between, and I was missing many better opportunities by focusing so much on tris.

In recent weeks, my home track (FairGrounds) has been suffering from short fields, which provide no real trifecta value. In fact, reaching for a tri in such races is silly--lots of work for low return. This forced me to look for other angles, and I realized that many of these races were easy to narrow down to two top choices. I've thus been salvaging my season by playing quinellas. It's not as thrilling to hit a $16 ticket 5 times, but it sure beats tossing way money on tris.

[David McKenzie]

Originally posted by rmania
I'm not surprised and I don't think it was all luck.
I for one have been guilty, on many occasions, of over-handicapping a race(s).

Back in the Neolithic Period when we handicapped and bet one track a day, I'd run the entire card through three of my favorite software programs. I print out the results and bring them with me. Then when we got to the track one of us would buy The Sheets. Sometimes someone would also have Logic Dictates. Jimmy couldn't get along without Lawton and The Wizard. So, we'd that information too.

By the time we were finished scrutinizing everything (which pointed in different directions) we were desperately snooping around for an old lady with a hatpin.

Another fault I used to be guilty of (while attempting to cap an entire card using the Form) was not putting as much effort into the last race as I did the first race.

We also ran into that. After several eons we finally figured out to handicap the ninth race FIRST, as that was the one race with the trifecta we were all anxious to hit.

Of course by the time you got to the first race by working backward you were ready to redo the ninth...:rolleyes:

[Suff]

If there is one thing I know I am weak in....and that I have a made a concious effort to improve upon this year......Is "how to bet". I put a steady stream of price horses on tickets. But I steadily miss big exacta's and trifecta's..............even though I put the "Ticket Maker" on the ticket. I'm all over threads on this site that deal with Bet structure and Money management and Risk /Value Management. I think my ability to handicapp a race is in good shape. But I think I'm probably one of the worst "horse players" when it comes to bet structure. I'm terrible at it.

[formula_2002]

Suff, I'll reiterate. It all in the odds and the edge.

If you trully know both, in the long run, you can never lose.

Joe M

[hurrikane]

I agree with most of that Joe. But what suff is talking about is exotics. Bet structure is at least as important and maybe even more important.

suff...look around for exotic wagering formulas by Tom Walters. Great book on exotic structures. Try the gamblers bookstore. They may have some left.

[formula_2002]

Here is a sample of how I view and understand all betting. Its from a previous post.

Win betting verse exotics.
Mathematically you can leverage your edge in the pic plays.
Here is a copy of a note I recently posted regarding the pic 4 at aqu on 2/27 .

“If you had no edge in the win pool (loss of 15%), a single pick in each of the 4 races would have cut yours losses down to -3%.

If you suffer a 10% loss in the win pool, the pick four would have given you a positive return of 22% in the pick 4 pool.


Check it out on the "inter-active pick 4 table"” (SEE MY WEB PAGE)
The pick 4 table allows you to enter the win odds in each of the 4 legs.
Then enter the $1 payout for the pick four. You can then see the leverage created by your play by also entering you edge.

Regarding win, place or show betting.
Another useful table is “Public’s estimation of the Odds”

while the public can lose 18% in the win pool on an even money horse, it cuts its losses to 10% in the place pool and 9% in the show pool.
The table list the $ nets for all rounded odds up to 20-1

[rmania]

Originally posted by rmania
...Another fault I used to be guilty of (while attempting to cap an entire card using the Form) was not putting as much effort into the last race as I did the first race.

As a result, I was pretty much right-on in the first few races and bringing up the rear in the last few.:rolleyes:

The definitive part of my earlier statement is “used to be guilty”.

I “used to” try and cap an entire card. Now I concentrate on sprints only. Too many uncertainties associated with the longer races.

I “used to” cap good at the beginning of the card (fresh mind) and lousy by the time I got to the last race (burnout).

If you think about it, handicapping is an interpretation exercise. Your brain is plowing through row after row of numbers, trying to create mental images which, in turn, leads you to determine which are the contenders and which are not. Then, through further interpretation, you must decide (of the contenders) which ones you are willing to take a chance with.

Needless to say, I am no longer guilty of the above.

The software I use for handicapping operates almost like a video game. And if anyone reading this has ever played a video game then you know that one can spend countless hours playing without experiencing mental fatigue. That’s because video games are created using total imagery that is processed by the brain with very little effort.

Hopefully, some day, the skeptics will figure this out.

[Fastracehorse]

Most races are contentious - and hence, all player's choices are vulnerable in contentious races. Alas, your luck-theory is valid in these types of events.

The skill in the game is to recognize your advantage - and, take advantage - this advantage probably won't come everyday - but depending on your style of play, it may - for me it doesn't - but often enought to keep me handicpping multiple tracks 5 or 6 days a week.

fffastt

[Derek2U]

OK ... I just say NO to maybe 1/2 the field in most races. Can
your prorgram simulate the race WITHOUT certain horses in
it? IOW ... if I eliminate the 4 & 8 horse, can I see the race
as if those 2 were not in it?

[rmania]

Originally posted by Derek2U
OK ... I just say NO to maybe 1/2 the field in most races. Can
your prorgram simulate the race WITHOUT certain horses in
it? IOW ... if I eliminate the 4 & 8 horse, can I see the race
as if those 2 were not in it?

et als?

You can scratch/delete any horse you chose.

If your donig it just to run a sim without a horse you can create a seperate sim if you want to.