View Full Version : Drudge reporting McCain actually ahead of Obama in Zogby poll to be released Saturday
PaceAdvantage
10-31-2008, 09:58 PM
This is for all those guys who love polls (not me of course...the only poll that counts is four days away).
ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday poll. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...
http://drudgereport.com/
zogby is a bad one for me, i don't trust him no matter which way he has it.
Rasmussen is the gold standard for me.
Last I saw he had lots of 4-5 point deals with major undecided.
I will see what he out now.
OTM Al
10-31-2008, 10:06 PM
IEM is the only truely reliable poll out there. They are showing +5-6 points for Obama right now on overall popular vote, but 85% chance of an Obama victory. The rest of these polls are nowhere near as historically acurate
the states are all that matter.
In several of the states that Mac has to win i have been surprised to see that Mac is now even or a point ahead on the economy, yes, the economy.
wonatthewire1
10-31-2008, 10:28 PM
the states are all that matter.
In several i have been surprised to see that Mac is now even or a point ahead on the economy, yes, the economy.
always an interesting one with the "economy" one - you have guys that have studied it all their lives like Bernake, Greenspan, Voelker and none of them can figure it out...
...remember when the Fed was referred to the entity that would eliminate or greatly reduce boom and bust cycles...
:lol:
prospector
11-01-2008, 12:40 AM
we're being blitzed here in indiana on tv for obama...
in the mail its almost all mccain...this state is said to be either obama or up for grabs...only one obama sign i've seen in my town...multiple mccain signs...loud doesn't always win..
highnote
11-01-2008, 12:59 AM
we're being blitzed here in indiana on tv for obama...
in the mail its almost all mccain...this state is said to be either obama or up for grabs...only one obama sign i've seen in my town...multiple mccain signs...loud doesn't always win..
While my kids were out trick or treating I was talking with a neighbor who usually votes republican. We both commented on how there seem to be more Obama lawn signs this year than McCain. We thought it was strange since our town is predominately republican.
25% percent of our resident's income comes from Wall Street. So I don't know if that means Wall Streeters are pissed off at republicans or what.
It could also mean that republican's think they'll win here, so why bother putting up a lot signs.
It will be an interesting election.
riskman
11-01-2008, 02:06 AM
This could be the deciding factor:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wzyT9-9lUyE
lamboguy
11-01-2008, 07:06 AM
just like in horse racing i am a terrible bettor. i couldn;t wait to bet mccain @ 2.4-1 4 months ago. i just repositioned my bet into another +7.50-1 on mccain.
my old buddy jimmythegreek synopolis got famous with his truman bet @10-1, i am trying to follow in his footsteps. jimmy if i win i know you will finnally be proud of me somewhere up there in gamblers heaven!
oddsmaven
11-01-2008, 10:59 AM
The electoral college is all that matters...until you see McCain catch up in the battleground states, he is in big trouble..Iowa and New Mexico are long gong...he has to virtually sweep the others and he's in a huge bind in Colorado, Virginia & Nevada...plus he's hurting in Ohio & Florida and appears in trouble in unexpected places like NC, MO, IN and possibly others.
GaryG
11-01-2008, 11:16 AM
The electoral college is all that matters...until you see McCain catch up in the battleground states, he is in big trouble..Iowa and New Mexico are long gong...he has to virtually sweep the others and he's in a huge bind in Colorado, Virginia & Nevada...plus he's hurting in Ohio & Florida and appears in trouble in unexpected places like NC, MO, IN and possibly others.McCain is winning TN by a landslide according to all accounts, big early turnout.
oddsmaven
11-01-2008, 11:27 AM
McCain is winning TN by a landslide according to all accounts, big early turnout.
Well, your "Volunteer" state doesn't generally make good choices in the elections but they produced a marvelous candidate in 2000 though they didn't know it. :(
GaryG
11-01-2008, 11:32 AM
Well, your "Volunteer" state doesn't generally make good choices in the elections but they produced a marvelous candidate in 2000 though they didn't know it. :(He couldn't carry Sen. Gore's briefcase....we know him all too well. He was raised in DC anyway.
oddsmaven
11-01-2008, 12:06 PM
He couldn't carry Sen. Gore's briefcase....we know him all too well. He was raised in DC anyway.
Gary, I respectively disagree...been following him a long time and always liked him...I'm a moderate democrat and he fit my views well plus he seemed like a very decent man...the press tarred him as a wooden guy as is their wont to put a simple ridiculing label on many a politician.
He was more DC than Tennessee growing up there and it was not a disgrace to narrowly lose his "home" state...it was a very red one by then and he did win the popular vote and would have taken the electoral as well if not for Nader & perhaps the Florida mess...the economy was good then but after 8 years of the same adminstration which had just gone thru "scandal", he wasn't in the driver's seat to win..it was expected to be close and he almost surprised as the late polls all were giving it to Bush.
Rookies
11-01-2008, 10:49 PM
My guess about the apparent change in some Red states to Blue is a combo of the following:
1) That imbecile Bush sunk virtually any Republican candidate;
2) Obama has done something no candidate before ever accomplished in such a huge scale- harnessed the Internet and all of its ramifications for $$$, volunteers, ideas, etc. This has particularly generated strong buy in from Gen X & Y voters who responded very favourably to a positive change message.
3) There has been an obvious increase in Democrat leaning Latino voters + Demo retirees in the Southwest States of New Mex, Nevada, Colorado AND Arizona;
4) There has been a similar migration of Demo voters to the Southern states of Virginia and North Carolina due to jobs from the new digital economy;
5) States like Florida, Ohio, etc. are always in play for the Democrats if economic circumstances is negative.
This is why Obama will not win a Reaganesque/ Clintonian landslide- but could be in the 340-350 electoral range.
OTM Al
11-02-2008, 08:12 AM
This Zogby poll?
http://www.zogby.com/main.htm
Oops.
chickenhead
11-02-2008, 12:07 PM
I'm not running down people age 65 and older or anything....but I can't believe McCain will only win their cohort by 2, over a black guy named Barrack Hussein Obama, just on historical and cultural grounds. If things "tighten" up, I'd expect it by way of this gap moving to 8 or 10.
(McCain) now leads by ... 2 among voters over 65 years old.
DeanT
11-02-2008, 12:23 PM
Bingo chick. Not the "racist" thing, but the experience thing. Those people voted overwhelmingly for Hillary too. There is no way it is a 2 point race with those.
chickenhead
11-02-2008, 12:45 PM
I didn't mean that to come across as calling them racists, maybe it did, but primarily just a reflection that he is "different". As people get older I think a lot of them become more reactionary, for probably sound reasons, it's human nature.
Believing they will vote in essentially equal numbers for a not well known black half Kenyan with a Muslim name running on a change platform, with a well known war hero named McCain just doesn't compute, all politics aside. I don't know how pronounced it will be, but the lizard brain will ultimately have an effect.
We already know that pure name recognition drives better than 90% of our Congressional races, it's lunacy to pretend that Obamas name alone isn't a 5 or 10 point hindrance. It's a culturally scary name, at the end of the day.
With age comes wisdom.
Older fold remember more democrats that the younger ones. We KNOW what it was like under Carter. It will be far worse under Obama. FAR worse.
Obama has offered nothing I have not heard time and time again by dem candidates. They never deliver. They always fail.
Bubba X
11-02-2008, 02:14 PM
With age comes wisdom.
Older fold remember more democrats that the younger ones. We KNOW what it was like under Carter. It will be far worse under Obama. FAR worse.
Obama has offered nothing I have not heard time and time again by dem candidates. They never deliver. They always fail.
I am sorry, but if you did not make money while Clinton was in, you have no hope anyway so you are probably right to be in a state deep, persistent despair.
I'd advise you to pull out your own hair as opposed to gouging out your own eyes.
Better to be bald than blind.
Hey, you figured out color! I'm impressed.
NoDayJob
11-03-2008, 01:02 AM
The May Pole. :D
ElKabong
11-03-2008, 01:39 AM
With age comes wisdom.
Older fold remember more democrats that the younger ones. We KNOW what it was like under Carter. It will be far worse under Obama. FAR worse.
Obama has offered nothing I have not heard time and time again by dem candidates. They never deliver. They always fail.
I'll do the color thingy too....Last time a dem prez was elected, the dems lost the House majority in the following mid terms. The last Democrat president with a Dem house for 4 years was Jimmy Carter. How'd that work for ol' BubberX?
NJ Stinks
11-03-2008, 01:48 AM
I'm not running down people age 65 and older or anything....but I can't believe McCain will only win their cohort by 2, over a black guy named Barrack Hussein Obama, just on historical and cultural grounds. If things "tighten" up, I'd expect it by way of this gap moving to 8 or 10.
People 65 and older get Social Security checks. They don't want Republicans to mess with SS - privatizing looks like a very bad idea right about now.
And Republicans keep saying they want to cut federal entitlement programs. That's got to scare the hell out of seniors from coast to coast who rely on Medicare and Social Security. That includes Republican seniors because all seniors need Medicare.
It's enough to make one wonder how McCain is leading at all with senior voters. All this talk of tax cuts must have them scared to death.
JustRalph
11-03-2008, 06:20 AM
It's enough to make one wonder how McCain is leading at all with senior voters. All this talk of tax cuts must have them scared to death.
They are older, smarter and they understand what a give away is. They don't want more government and they come from a generation where you work for what you have. Your description of them is the perfect example of "selflessness" they get it. They were brought up with Altruistic values that are what brought our country through many hard times. They understand it. Much more than todays generation of Liberals who think the Government should be the end all, be all.
They are better than those who have followed them. This is a perfect example of the difference that you see as a Liberal, and your not being able to understand it, and what I see as a Conservative. You don't get it because you aren't programmed to get it.
Time now for some self reflection on your part.............go ahead............ I will wait...........
prospector
11-03-2008, 09:29 AM
They are older, smarter and they understand what a give away is. They don't want more government and they come from a generation where you work for what you have. Your description of them is the perfect example of "selflessness" they get it. They were brought up with Altruistic values that are what brought our country through many hard times. They understand it. Much more than todays generation of Liberals who think the Government should be the end all, be all.
They are better than those who have followed them. This is a perfect example of the difference that you see as a Liberal, and your not being able to understand it, and what I see as a Conservative. You don't get it because you aren't programmed to get it.
Time now for some self reflection on your part.............go ahead............ I will wait...........
very well stated...this senior agrees with you and is voting for sarah...
GaryG
11-03-2008, 09:34 AM
The May Pole. :DI trust Ron Jaworski....
boxcar
11-03-2008, 09:30 PM
Now, here's a guy who clearly is bucking the tide. But I think he makes a few good points -- ones that are being ignored or overlooked by the mainstream media. Oh, yes...this gent predicts a "landslide" victory for McCain-Palin. Now, I'm a little biased, but I myself very early on -- right after Palin was chosen for VP on the ticket -- predicted that the women voters of this nation would be the deciding factor in this election -- both because of Palin and because of PUMA. And to a lesser degree, old line Democrats will not vote for Obama either because they'll consider him too radical.
I would dearly love to see the M-P ticket win this election only for this reason (since I'm hardly a McCain fan): I would love to listen to the media try to spin its way out of another losing election -- especially this one because they barely laid a glove on their "golden boy" Obama. Free rides, free passes, puff cream questions, etc. have been standard fare for their anointed one. The mainstream media have been in the tank for him from the very beginning.
Enjoy...and don't forget to keep checking back every few hours or so for updates on this guy's site.
http://www.marstonchronicles.info/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=95&Itemid=119
Boxcar
chickenhead
11-03-2008, 10:10 PM
They are older, smarter and they understand what a give away is. They don't want more government and they come from a generation where you work for what you have. Your description of them is the perfect example of "selflessness" they get it. They were brought up with Altruistic values that are what brought our country through many hard times. They understand it. Much more than todays generation of Liberals who think the Government should be the end all, be all.
They are better than those who have followed them. This is a perfect example of the difference that you see as a Liberal, and your not being able to understand it, and what I see as a Conservative. You don't get it because you aren't programmed to get it.
As a political body, seniors cannot be described as either selfless or conservative. They run the most powerful citizens group in the country (by far), 40 million strong, that is essentially entirely focused on one thing, increasing their benefits, and therefore the size of our entitlement programs (known as wealth transfer programs, by economists). There is not any moralizing that needs to be done about that, it's not unexpected, the situation most seniors find themselves in is that they effectively become wards of the state as they don't have the assets to pay for themselves. It's rational that their prime imperative is protecting their monthly income and benefits. But, it can't be described as either selfless or conservative, quite the opposite.
In their personal actions, and their private lives, sure. As a political body, not remotely. I'm not faulting them for that, they are no different in that regard than any other interest group.
They are older, smarter and they understand what a give away is. They don't want more government and they come from a generation where you work for what you have. Your description of them is the perfect example of "selflessness" they get it. They were brought up with Altruistic values that are what brought our country through many hard times. They understand it. Much more than todays generation of Liberals who think the Government should be the end all, be all.
They are better than those who have followed them. This is a perfect example of the difference that you see as a Liberal, and your not being able to understand it, and what I see as a Conservative. You don't get it because you aren't programmed to get it.
Time now for some self reflection on your part.............go ahead............ I will wait...........
Obama's leading (http://www.gallup.com/poll/111205/Recent-Obama-Surge-Evident-Among-Men-Less-Educated.aspx)with senior citizens. The one area Obama has struggled with is stupid ass crackers. Do you know anyone there? That demo has been tough for Obama.
For much of the campaign, it looked like the election would be decided by middle-aged voters -- those between the ages of 30 and 64 -- given younger voters' strong attraction to Obama and older voters' preference for McCain. The two middle-aged groups (aged 30 to 49 and 50 to 64) have both swung from a pro-McCain position after the GOP convention to favoring Obama by a significant margin. During this time, McCain's lead among senior citizens has also evaporated. While Obama has made gains among all age groups, the candidates' relative appeal by age group remains in place.
file:///C:/Users/owner/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpgfile:///C:/Users/owner/AppData/Local/Temp/moz-screenshot-1.jpg
Seems like everyone looking for a handout or someone else to do the work for them favor Obama. Wonder what they will do when there is no left to tax?
JustRalph
11-04-2008, 01:03 PM
The one area Obama has struggled with is stupid ass crackers. Do you know anyone there?
You have the audacity to call somebody stupid? After all the things you have done? Get real. Most of the people here know who you really are Mike. Get over it. Take that Hard on you have for me and go away.
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