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View Full Version : Is 'too much value' actually BAD value?


Imriledup
10-31-2008, 09:51 PM
There was a race today at Hollywood Park on the turf at a mile and a quarter for 6 contestants. The 6 horse was a horse named South Coast who was 2-1 morning line, he was a close 2nd choice behind 9-5 ML favorite Westerly Magic.

DRF's handicapper extraordinaire Brad Free, pointed out that this looks like an easy win for South Coast because he's lone speed...then he pointed out that 'this looks sure looks easy on paper'.

Very seldom in handicapping do you find TRUE lone speed where its almost a certainty that a major contender is going to be handed the race on the front end and will go as slow as he wants to go.

But, a funny thing happened on the way to the winners circle for South Coast. Oh he got the front all right, and he went 50 and change and fell apart like he was worth 5 cents. Also, he was AMAZING value at 3-1.

Or, was he?

He was bet (or, not bet) like the entire world (except Brad Free and myself) knew he had no chance despite there not being one shred of evidence that he wasn't going to lead gate to wire vs a common field of claimers.

When i see something like this, it just reeks of an insiders game where the BIG money knows which horses are getting their 'potions' and which horses are running clean. Something was seriously wrong with South Coast and the big money knew it. No way a 2-1 ML horse who figures to be lone speed goes off at 3-1 unless he's ice cold and has no shot.

So, as a handicapper, what do you do? Logic dictates that you play your lungs on South Coast as he's a big overlay at 3-1. Illogic says stay away because he's supposed to be even money. Damned if you do....you know the saying.

Back in the old days when we had tons of 'recreational' money in the pools, a horse like this could be 3-1 and crush and pay 8 bucks and you'd say "god, that was easy, i wish they were all like that". Unfortunately, all that money dried up and its just a bunch of sharps and whales pounding each other into microdust.

Will you ever stay away from a horse because he's too HIGH of a price?

ddog
10-31-2008, 09:59 PM
if i don't know or think i know why he is a value then yes , unless the odds are really wild i will stay away or more often drastically cut my play.

I don't spend anytime worrying about even money / 3-1 horses since I would not be playing them straight up anyway.

DeanT
10-31-2008, 11:03 PM
Very good post.

Too much value is a bad thing, imo. The players are not stupid. If something is dead on the board (i.e. really dead in all pools) I will not touch the horse.

I think it really hit me few years ago. I loved a certain play and he was 3-1. All of a sudden he starts going up. I switch to the exchanges and he is 9-1. WTF? I missed the post parade, so I scan for a look at the horse. Does he have three legs? Sure enough he looked lame. He raced horrible. Ignore the board at your peril, imo, there is way too much smart cash out there.

cj
11-01-2008, 12:38 AM
If you value the board "too much", you are wasting your time playing this game in my opinion.

I thought the winner today was a lock in the race at Hollywood, and the exacta as well. 10f on the turf is not the kind of race where a horse is going to steal the race on tactics alone. By my figures, the horse had never run fast enough to beat the 5, or the 4 for that matter, and today's added distance did not figure to help.

In my opinion, the 2 to 1 was a bad morning line, not a dead on the board situation. I wouldn't have bet that horse at 10 to 1.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 01:13 AM
I ignored the six for some reason, but I cant remember. I think I bet the four horse who came second or third. Man it is all a blur. I think I played from noon onwards. I should spend my days off more productively. Nah, maybe not.

sevenall
11-01-2008, 01:17 AM
For me, the horse would only be an overlay if I could see the reason he wasn't being bet (raise in class, bad last race, etc).

If he should be bet...and he's not...then I don't call a higher price an "overlay".

Imriledup
11-01-2008, 01:29 AM
If you value the board "too much", you are wasting your time playing this game in my opinion.

I thought the winner today was a lock in the race at Hollywood, and the exacta as well. 10f on the turf is not the kind of race where a horse is going to steal the race on tactics alone. By my figures, the horse had never run fast enough to beat the 5, or the 4 for that matter, and today's added distance did not figure to help.

In my opinion, the 2 to 1 was a bad morning line, not a dead on the board situation. I wouldn't have bet that horse at 10 to 1.

I didn't think it was a bad morning line. Loose on the lead types in California get hammered at the windows and this one got ignored. I thought the 92 beyer out of the westerly magic race was overrated since the 2nd place finisher in there (romp) couldnt even come close to 80 in any of his starts, he couldnt even break 70 in the start before that.

South Coast's Beyer on Sept 14th is misleading, he battled an incredibly hot pace in there in a 3 turn race and crushed the field like a monster. The fact that he just stopped at the top of the lane today means it was a non-performance bounce to the moon situation. South Coast lost because he was lame or whatever and not because he was too slow or not game enough to beat these.

ranchwest
11-01-2008, 01:39 AM
For me, Westerly Magic looks much the best.

Second race off a 49 day layoff, 3 time turf winner, big closer against turf speed, last race simlar to this one, one of the top turf jocks, good speed figures on turf, lots of works that are much better than South Coast's works, etc.

If you're okay with short prices, $5.00 is pretty good on the 5. If not, this is a definite pass with this 6 horse field.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 02:37 AM
You guys made me look! :)

I think he was fair odds there. He was longer offshore on the exchanges at around 5.5-1. I am not sold it was a dead on the board situation. But I can see Riled Up's point. He looks like he would get good control and easy fractions and he does figure by my numbers to be there somewhere. I think he raced like crap.

As for the winner, he was most likely as I remember, but I was not touching him with a ten foot pole at 3-2. I bet the four. I thought he was good value.

JustRalph
11-01-2008, 03:20 AM
As a spectator I chose the 2 Mississipian at the huge price, and picked him on the selections forum this morning.

I thought Westerly Mag. and the rest were vulnerable. The 2 at 30-1, I thought my horse had a shot in the lane and made a nice move, but hung for a decent third.

If I had really been playing, I think I would have done the same thing. Small bet on the 2 to w/p............. I didn't like the race at all.......... it needed a few more horses............

Imriledup
11-01-2008, 04:09 AM
I was just trying to use this race to illustrate my example and it turned into a thread about this race. Ok, lets go with that!

South Coast was done at the top of the lane. He's very seldom 'done' at the top of the lane, especially since he got loose in slow pace. My point originally was that he should have at least had more fight and not necessarily that he was supposed to beat Westerly Magic to the wire. My point was that his being 'done' so early and him being ignored in the betting at 3.30-1 isn't a coincidence.

The 2 horse Mississippian looked absolutely dreadful on paper, isn't a better horse than South Coast on anyone's handicapping systems or methods and yet beat him to the wire easily despite South Coast having a better trip.

Westerly Magic, although he looked great on paper, he defeated a horse named Romp on Oct 12th and Romp was another horse who is better than South Coast on no one's handicapping methods. Romp was slow as molasses on paper and never ever does a thing, yet he was able to race within a half length of WM in that race.

JustRalph
11-01-2008, 05:13 AM
I was just trying to use this race to illustrate my example and it turned into a thread about this race. Ok, lets go with that!

I see your point about thread drift......and I get your point on the value....... I think there is one glaring reason why the 6 wasn't bet. Distance. Although he moved up on class when he tried 9f he looks to have failed miserably beyond 8.5F Unforgiving public? Who knows...... but if he got it done.....the price was still too low for me. Just my opine.

A 2 dollar show bet on my long shot paid better than 2 bucks on the two that ran in front of him. $6.60

I loved his work pattern and Jcapper pointed the horse out for me as the kind I like to play when coming back to form. He was coming off the best workout pattern he had ever shown. He got beat by 2.75L at 30-1........ I would have gotten my moneys worth............from Jcapper in case you are interested.

2 +MISSISSIPPIAN

AFR_TOP_ML_LSHOT
AFR_TOP_3
**Wobr**
**Points10+

The 2 had the top AFR rating and so far this meet, (albeit a very small sample size) these horses are doing pretty well
ROI of 1.5563 5 for 16 .3125 Win pct

098poi
11-01-2008, 07:54 AM
'this looks sure looks easy on paper'.


This to me is the key to it all. When things look real obvious to me and to the ML and the public handicappers it makes me nervous. It seems like another horse will win because it is too obvious and even when they win there is no value. When they go off at 5/2 or 3-1 you think the smart money knows something so you should back off, but then the horse wins and you say to yourself, "It was so obvious!". :bang: Beyer says trust the figs and I guess we should trust our own instincts.

cmoore
11-01-2008, 09:19 AM
Will you ever stay away from a horse because he's too HIGH of a price?

Absolutely not

Can you make money in the long haul betting on 3-1's?..I sure couldn't.

cj
11-01-2008, 09:20 AM
I was just trying to use this race to illustrate my example and it turned into a thread about this race. Ok, lets go with that!

South Coast was done at the top of the lane. He's very seldom 'done' at the top of the lane, especially since he got loose in slow pace. My point originally was that he should have at least had more fight and not necessarily that he was supposed to beat Westerly Magic to the wire. My point was that his being 'done' so early and him being ignored in the betting at 3.30-1 isn't a coincidence.

The 2 horse Mississippian looked absolutely dreadful on paper, isn't a better horse than South Coast on anyone's handicapping systems or methods and yet beat him to the wire easily despite South Coast having a better trip.

Westerly Magic, although he looked great on paper, he defeated a horse named Romp on Oct 12th and Romp was another horse who is better than South Coast on no one's handicapping methods. Romp was slow as molasses on paper and never ever does a thing, yet he was able to race within a half length of WM in that race.

The assumption that the figure was "wrong" from the WM race was probably wrong. It was earned with a crawling pace, making it even more impressive on turf.

Romp and Westerly Magic were both much better than South Coast on my methods. It was a no brainer. The distance was a huge key since South Coast has never given any indication that he would be able to improve at 10 furlongs.

By the way, Romp looked like a new horse in his last race since shipping West. I don't see why the East Coast races would matter much.

Imriledup
11-01-2008, 09:40 AM
The assumption that the figure was "wrong" from the WM race was probably wrong. It was earned with a crawling pace, making it even more impressive on turf.

Romp and Westerly Magic were both much better than South Coast on my methods. It was a no brainer. The distance was a huge key since South Coast has never given any indication that he would be able to improve at 10 furlongs.

By the way, Romp looked like a new horse in his last race since shipping West. I don't see why the East Coast races would matter much.

I think the number was overrated and not necessarily wrong. These are bad horses and that's why a slug like Romp can compete here. Whoever made the Beyer figs for SO Cal on the turf gave Out of Control a 112 and that number proved overrated after the BC turf was run. To each his own. I thought South Coast was the most likely winner in the race, i thought he was at least as good as anyone in there and was lone speed. SC didn't perform, he was just over the top and didn't run his race. He didn't lose because he wasn't good enough to win, he lost because he just blew up and X'd. If SC runs his race he knows how, he's goes wire to wire in there.

DanG
11-01-2008, 10:07 AM
Two quick thoughts on South Coast that I think were touched upon are the danger in using a FPX, 3-turn bullring dirt line and / or 8f grass lines on the stretch out for 10f grass races. Also I would check the depth of competition in those Cal-bred races when trying open company to be sure their 3rd fraction measures up. Restricted state-breds / open OCL in So Cal can be worlds apart and are often bet accordingly.

Two good pieces on this subject; One by Charles Carroll on your original question of when is their “too much value”. He raises interesting points concerning how mainstream your methods are etc. If your using the ‘last out Beyer often and your animal is 4 times your expected price you may want to investigate further or perhaps not.

Article on ‘Value: http://www.icapper.com/carrollArt11.html

On the subject of grass racing and the sensitivity to distance I thought [post #5 from EJT2112] was very informative from the HTR BBS at this link;

http://www.homebased2.com/forums/showthread.php?t=8462

Best of luck.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 01:16 PM
Excellent i-capper article. Players should heed that, imo. Nice to read people that can type, unlike myself, and get a point across.

If you know why you are getting a big overlay, then you have one. If your horse is puzzlingly a big overlay, run.

Overlay
11-01-2008, 02:17 PM
If you know why you are getting a big overlay, then you have one. If your horse is puzzlingly a big overlay, run.

I think that it's also important to remember that the reason that you're getting a big overlay may not lie solely with your horse. Rather than purposely avoiding or expressing a negative opinion about your specific horse, the public may just be overbetting other horses in the race in comparison to their actual winning chances, making your horse an overlay by default. None of the horses even need to have actual "holes" in their records. But the public is giving greater weight to selected positive factors (like a horse with a hot jockey or a big figure) than is justified by the actual probabilities involved, with the result that other solid contenders in the race become overlays. That points up the value of making a full-field odds line, rather than focusing only on the winning chances of the horse that you think will finish first.

InsideThePylons-MW
11-01-2008, 02:43 PM
Bet more

DeanT
11-01-2008, 03:15 PM
Hey overlay,

It's all part of being a horseplayer, imo. Analyzing the odds and making a play is as important as anything I think.

Jeff and I were speaking of this on the open part of his board. I am sure since it is a public part of the board he does not care I post this, but if he does I am sure he will screw up my software feed and make me bet JPR 1 horses who have no shot :)

This is a model with a successful betting 'angle'. It is over 1.00 ROI and is a solid way to find 7-1 shots or more. It is sorted by ML.

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 4339.00 3883.90 3504.20
Bet -3856.00 -3856.00 -3856.00
Gain 483.00 27.90 -351.80
`
Wins 194 421 628
Plays 1928 1928 1928
PCT .1006 .2184 .3257
`
ROI 1.1253 1.0072 0.9088
Avg Mut 22.37 9.23 5.58
`
`
By: Morning Line
`
>=Min < Max Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
-999.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
0.00 0.50 -8.00 8.00 0.0000 0 4 .0000 0.0000
0.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
1.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
1.50 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
2.00 2.50 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
2.50 3.00 -20.00 20.00 0.0000 0 10 .0000 0.0000
3.00 3.50 -3.00 60.00 0.9500 3 30 .1000 0.9938
3.50 4.00 36.00 96.00 1.3750 7 48 .1458 1.4493
4.00 4.50 68.50 192.00 1.3568 14 96 .1458 1.4493
4.50 5.00 65.80 164.00 1.4012 11 82 .1341 1.3332
5.00 5.50 141.70 360.00 1.3936 24 180 .1333 1.3251
5.50 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
6.00 6.50 110.40 680.00 1.1624 39 340 .1147 1.1400
6.50 7.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.00 7.50 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
7.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
8.00 8.50 48.60 690.00 1.0704 32 345 .0928 0.9218
8.50 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.0000 0 0 .0000 0.0000
9.00 999999.00 47.00 1582.00 1.0297 64 791 .0809 0.8041

ML horses 3-1 and under, who are "dead" on the board and bet to over 7-1 are a combined 3 for 46. And keep in mind this is not overall, this is with a tight model that is profitable. Those are not overlays, those are terrible sucker bets. We have to learn to be able to recognize when we are not getting the best of it, imo.

Imriledup
11-01-2008, 04:12 PM
Thanks for the great responses guys, i appreciate the feeback!

oddsmaven
11-01-2008, 04:22 PM
.........ML horses 3-1 and under, who are "dead" on the board and bet to over 7-1 are a combined 3 for 46. And keep in mind this is not overall, this is with a tight model that is profitable. Those are not overlays, those are terrible sucker bets. We have to learn to be able to recognize when we are not getting the best of it, imo.
Dean,
Getting clues from the tote board to supplement my handicapping has always been a fascinating subject to me...I'm not stunned by the data you presented whereas the "dead" horses didn't run like 3:1 chances but they really did bad.

When horses go off "high", I tend to think that the linemaker isn't very good or if not bad, was just faced with a difficult read...perhaps the horse came out of an "anti-key" race and the effort was better than it looked...maybe he misjudged the class which can happen easily with shippers...or he didn't properly analyze a tough pace situation.

That chart suggests that there is truly something wrong with the horse since they are even worse than other 7:1 shots...what reasons do you think causes that type of a lack of play coupled with dismal win records? I wouldn't think the trainers are sending out lame horses...your opinion?

InsideThePylons-MW
11-01-2008, 04:24 PM
I didn't realize we were dealing with computer models and ML overlays.

If you are sharp, have your own confident opinion and do not rely upon anything but that......bet more!

Example.....You love Raven's Pass in the BC Classic and you think 6-1 is more than fair.....when you see he is paying $29.00, you bet more.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 04:38 PM
Dean,
Getting clues from the tote board to supplement my handicapping has always been a fascinating subject to me...I'm not stunned by the data you presented whereas the "dead" horses didn't run like 3:1 chances but they really did bad.

When horses go off "high", I tend to think that the linemaker isn't very good or if not bad, was just faced with a difficult read...perhaps the horse came out of an "anti-key" race and the effort was better than it looked...maybe he misjudged the class which can happen easily with shippers...or he didn't properly analyze a tough pace situation.

That chart suggests that there is truly something wrong with the horse since they are even worse than other 7:1 shots...what reasons do you think causes that type of a lack of play coupled with dismal win records? I wouldn't think the trainers are sending out lame horses...your opinion?

I work at it because I think it gives me an edge. Being a gambling junkie with these things helps. I am curious about much of this.

What is the reason some horses are dead on the board? Sharp money I think. I know someone who plays overseas and he bets a certain angle on the UK races which involve dead on the board philosophies that he has worked on. He is the smartest gambler I have ever been associated with and he has been professional for most of this decade. This is not uncommon with sharp players. Alan Woods, the late great gambler, watched betfair and drifting, as well as "obvious differences" in his odds line. He was quoted as saying he knew when he was on the wrong side of something. This is the greatest gambler perhaps ever in racing and he would watch for certain things.

I think inside knowledge regarding effort and lameness is built in to this in some way. I do know one thing that I have tracked: When I watch the movement I know when I am going to get killed on a bet. I used to chase, using the gambler ego of "why are you not betting this horse, he is a lock" and keep hammering him. I am about 0.35 ROI on those plays. Sometimes they run last.

If you are interested in gambling and money moves in markets, try Smart Money by Michael Konik.

http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Money-Bettors-Bookies-Millions/dp/0743277139

He followed a large gambler who would move lines in football and basketball. He learned during his experience what the right side was and wrong side was using line moves. I think we can do that in racing, too, and I am trying to do some research to figure it out.

oddsmaven
11-01-2008, 04:57 PM
I work at it because I think it gives me an edge. Being a gambling junkie with these things helps. I am curious about much of this.

What is the reason some horses are dead on the board? Sharp money I think. I know someone who plays overseas and he bets a certain angle on the UK races which involve dead on the board philosophies that he has worked on. He is the smartest gambler I have ever been associated with and he has been professional for most of this decade. This is not uncommon with sharp players. Alan Woods, the late great gambler, watched betfair and drifting, as well as "obvious differences" in his odds line. He was quoted as saying he knew when he was on the wrong side of something. This is the greatest gambler perhaps ever in racing and he would watch for certain things.

I think inside knowledge regarding effort and lameness is built in to this in some way. I do know one thing that I have tracked: When I watch the movement I know when I am going to get killed on a bet. I used to chase, using the gambler ego of "why are you not betting this horse, he is a lock" and keep hammering him. I am about 0.35 ROI on those plays. Sometimes they run last.

If you are interested in gambling and money moves in markets, try Smart Money by Michael Konik.

http://www.amazon.com/Smart-Money-Bettors-Bookies-Millions/dp/0743277139

He followed a large gambler who would move lines in football and basketball. He learned during his experience what the right side was and wrong side was using line moves. I think we can do that in racing, too, and I am trying to do some research to figure it out.
Thanks a lot...I'll take a look...the best I'd ever done was years ago when I used to bet with the "smart money" at NYRA tracks and wager into Connecticut OTB pools that provided different odds...that edge disappeared and I truly miss it...I agree with you that the money is smart, though many here are big proponents of finding overlays which does not jive with that.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 04:59 PM
Interesting race at HAW right now about this. I am still betting the seven horse. 39% win prob on Ian's line and a dead nuts chalk on Jeff's.

But it looks weird in terms of odds board action. The nine seems to be smarter than the seven.

DeanT
11-01-2008, 05:01 PM
Yikes, did I ever take a bath there...............

DeanT
11-01-2008, 05:07 PM
though many here are big proponents of finding overlays which does not jive with that.

You are finding overlays though, overlays of the best kind - the hidden ones. Now if it was only easy to do, we'd be fine :)

ddog
11-01-2008, 05:50 PM
I didn't realize we were dealing with computer models and ML overlays.

If you are sharp, have your own confident opinion and do not rely upon anything but that......bet more!

Example.....You love Raven's Pass in the BC Classic and you think 6-1 is more than fair.....when you see he is paying $29.00, you bet more.



Pie,
I agree and do , but the comparision to the BIG days is a little off imo.
We expect to have more of a fixed odds set close to post due to the amount of money and nbr of outlets in those BIG day pools.
Not to mention those big day pools are a lot deeper than oral days, imo.


The major days are a different beast and I play them differently, more wild swings for less BR per play.
I will step out in one or maybe two races on the big days to try for the crush.

Anyway, good luck

InsideThePylons-MW
11-01-2008, 06:00 PM
Pie,
I agree and do , but the comparision to the BIG days is a little off imo.
We expect to have more of a fixed odds set close to post due to the amount of money and nbr of outlets in those BIG day pools.
Not to mention those big day pools are a lot deeper than oral days, imo.


The major days are a different beast and I play them differently, more wild swings for less BR per play.
I will step out in one or maybe two races on the big days to try for the crush.

Anyway, good luck

Correct...they are different but it is something everybody can relate to.

OK..... you like a horse that you think should be 3-1 at anytrack USA in anyrace USA and he is 8-1 for whatever reason (overbetting an Assmussen you hate, he has a 6% trainer, just doesn't look that good to public, unknown reason, etc.)......BET MORE

cj
11-02-2008, 12:18 AM
I think the number was overrated and not necessarily wrong. These are bad horses and that's why a slug like Romp can compete here. Whoever made the Beyer figs for SO Cal on the turf gave Out of Control a 112 and that number proved overrated after the BC turf was run. To each his own. I thought South Coast was the most likely winner in the race, i thought he was at least as good as anyone in there and was lone speed. SC didn't perform, he was just over the top and didn't run his race. He didn't lose because he wasn't good enough to win, he lost because he just blew up and X'd. If SC runs his race he knows how, he's goes wire to wire in there.

Why does Out of Control's number have to be wrong? First, he was cooked on a fast pace in the BC Turf. More importantly, the race was 1/4 mile LONGER....that makes a big difference.

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 01:49 AM
Why does Out of Control's number have to be wrong? First, he was cooked on a fast pace in the BC Turf. More importantly, the race was 1/4 mile LONGER....that makes a big difference.

The number might technically, from a time standpoint, be correct....but, its misleading because those horses stink. Spring House is a total fraud and was in that same race and got a 108 or something really fast and he's a glorified claimer. He didn't even beat that rabbit to the wire. Think about that, the rabbit who was done on the backstretch under an all out drive beat that Spring House to the wire. I know those horses really well, i know their company lines, i know what they look like on video and 112 was just a bad number. 112 to me means world class....i don't know how that number came up to be so high, but those animals are not that good imo.

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 01:59 AM
Dean,
Getting clues from the tote board to supplement my handicapping has always been a fascinating subject to me...I'm not stunned by the data you presented whereas the "dead" horses didn't run like 3:1 chances but they really did bad.

When horses go off "high", I tend to think that the linemaker isn't very good or if not bad, was just faced with a difficult read...perhaps the horse came out of an "anti-key" race and the effort was better than it looked...maybe he misjudged the class which can happen easily with shippers...or he didn't properly analyze a tough pace situation.

That chart suggests that there is truly something wrong with the horse since they are even worse than other 7:1 shots...what reasons do you think causes that type of a lack of play coupled with dismal win records? I wouldn't think the trainers are sending out lame horses...your opinion?

The morning lines maker is not really a factor in determining dead on the board, its just what i know about the animals, the race shape and how the california bettors like to bet. I think that in calif right now there is HUGE money following stuff that's not found on paper or on video. At 3.30-1 this horse was ICE cold. Believe it or not, Brad Free's column holds weight and he picked this horse on top, told the entire world it was lone speed and said it looks like an easy winner. If you read his picks and analysis, which many do, you would have to look at the race knowing that that SC is lone speed. When you do the work, you can see that Brad is right and he is loose.

All serious handicappers who know how to handicap pace profiles knew this horse would be out front going very slow. He was coming out of a 250k race vs horses who would have been 1-5 vs these and he only was beaten 4 lengths in there. Some pros here are saying that the winner was logical and whatnut, but i can't imagine that you are up a lot of money betting against absolute stone lone Fs, like this horse was.

If you told me that SC went off even money i wouldn't have blinked an eye. I would have said "of course, he was lone speed, all the sharp players knew it".

Hopefully this wasn't a dead board situation and it was just handicappers not knowing that this horse was lone speed. I actually hope that's all true. You can bet your next Waverly Magic at 8-5 and i'll take a big position on the lone F 3-1 shot and i'll win more money in the long run than you will. At 3-1 i'll take my shot on a 50 and change half under no pressure all day long.

Track Phantom
11-02-2008, 02:59 AM
There was a race today at Hollywood Park on the turf at a mile and a quarter for 6 contestants. The 6 horse was a horse named South Coast who was 2-1 morning line, he was a close 2nd choice behind 9-5 ML favorite Westerly Magic.

DRF's handicapper extraordinaire Brad Free, pointed out that this looks like an easy win for South Coast because he's lone speed...then he pointed out that 'this looks sure looks easy on paper'.

Very seldom in handicapping do you find TRUE lone speed where its almost a certainty that a major contender is going to be handed the race on the front end and will go as slow as he wants to go.

But, a funny thing happened on the way to the winners circle for South Coast. Oh he got the front all right, and he went 50 and change and fell apart like he was worth 5 cents. Also, he was AMAZING value at 3-1.

Or, was he?

He was bet (or, not bet) like the entire world (except Brad Free and myself) knew he had no chance despite there not being one shred of evidence that he wasn't going to lead gate to wire vs a common field of claimers.

When i see something like this, it just reeks of an insiders game where the BIG money knows which horses are getting their 'potions' and which horses are running clean. Something was seriously wrong with South Coast and the big money knew it. No way a 2-1 ML horse who figures to be lone speed goes off at 3-1 unless he's ice cold and has no shot.

So, as a handicapper, what do you do? Logic dictates that you play your lungs on South Coast as he's a big overlay at 3-1. Illogic says stay away because he's supposed to be even money. Damned if you do....you know the saying.

Back in the old days when we had tons of 'recreational' money in the pools, a horse like this could be 3-1 and crush and pay 8 bucks and you'd say "god, that was easy, i wish they were all like that". Unfortunately, all that money dried up and its just a bunch of sharps and whales pounding each other into microdust.

Will you ever stay away from a horse because he's too HIGH of a price?

About the sharpest post I've ever read on this board. You are 100% dead on. I would absolutely discount 90% of the responses here because they either A) missed your point and tried to show their superior (after the race) handicapping skills by picking the winner or B) can't accept the fact that handicapping value in the game of horse racing is completely gone.

You made the most relevant point possible. All the "dumb" money is gone. It is now living in slot machines and poker tables. In addition, with all of the information easily accesible to everyone, very few can find a true edge unless you have some inside knowledge.

Bottom line, especially at bigger tracks, if it's a 2-1 morning line, controlling speed and on the board at 3-1, toss it. This is absolute gospel in So. Cal. The only moderate "dumb" money there comes from the people that replied to this post.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2008, 03:29 AM
the public doesn;t know how to handicap

the bigger the value the better

Robert Fischer
11-02-2008, 03:36 AM
one thing that does happen to be true about today's average pools - you ought to be passing a hell of a lot of races! There is a lot of so called smart money in the pools, making most of your potential plays value-less.

i never know an animal, and then bitch off of it like "oh no shes cold on the board"...

but all day i am sitting there saying "oh no all the money is on my horse, another pass"

you can't start comprimising in that situation

"F" the public! I will wait until they are wrong again.

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 03:56 AM
the public doesn;t know how to handicap

the bigger the value the better

Herein lies the rub. There is no public. 95% of all the monies bet are being bet by these people:

1) professional handicappers who have been following racing their entire lives

2) People who are really smart humans who aren't great handicappers or professional handicappers, but know how and where to buy the right information to get the job done a lot of the time, they know how to read the form and can spend 30 bucks on sophisticated speed figures that incorporate ground loss. They might not be long term winning players, but their hundreds and thousands find the right horses more times than a person like you and me would like them to.

3) People who have either done or hired computer robots to bet for them. These people are computer geniuses and they have a system devised to place the right amount of money on the right horses. They have teams of handicappers who make an accurate enough odds line, they plug that stuff into the program and they are on their way.

4) People on the inside of the game who know absolutely nothing about racing, but they know someone who knows a ton about racing and that person who knows a ton, releases the right horse to this guy who promptly bets anywhere from 2k to 5k to win.

5) Track vets, trainers, exercise riders, jockeys and owners who are serious bettors in this game and because they have a bit of an inside edge, they too will find the right horses more times than they should (considering that they really don't know how to handicap like a pro and don't really spend a lot of time handicapping). "live" runners present themselves in many ways and there are many people who really want to know who the right horse is going to be.

There is very little money that is being bet by someone who likes a name or a number. You are not betting against the hobo's on the first floor grandstand that you see every day when you go to the track. You know who i'm talking about, the typical degenerate with a voucher for 3.10 cents and he stands up at the self betting machine and takes 8 minutes to bet 31 seperate 10 cent super combos, most of them of the quick pick variety. You're NOT betting against that guy even though you'd love to think you are. Do you all know how many times i walked thru a racetrack grandstand and said to myself, "i can NEVER lose to THAT guy". I'll never do that again, because i'm not betting against Joe Hobo with his torn sneakers and bus passes sticking out of his lint filled pockets.

All those horses that go from 3-1 to 2-1 when the horses are halfway down the stretch is not the result of "the public". I'm not sure who it is, but it not Joe Hobo with the rolled up cigarette behind his ear and his dull #5 pencil.

The worst and most irresponsile thing a bettor can do is to assume his competition is dumb and doesn't know how to handicap. Once in a while you will get a horse that appears overlaid to your eyes and you'll laugh and say 'thank you' for giving me more than i deserved, but don't ever get lulled to sleep and think that your competition is dumb. There's an old saying that goes like this. There's a fish/sucker in every game, if you don't know who the fish is, its probably you.

InsideThePylons-MW
11-02-2008, 04:34 AM
The worst and most irresponsile thing a bettor can do is to assume his competition is dumb and doesn't know how to handicap. Once in a while you will get a horse that appears overlaid to your eyes and you'll laugh and say 'thank you' for giving me more than i deserved, but don't ever get lulled to sleep and think that your competition is dumb. There's an old saying that goes like this. There's a fish/sucker in every game, if you don't know who the fish is, its probably you.

Could you please tell me which grouping of the 95% smart money bet Michael's Notes down to 3/2 in the 6th at Hollywood today.

JustRalph
11-02-2008, 05:19 AM
About the sharpest post I've ever read on this board. You are 100% dead on. I would absolutely discount 90% of the responses here because they either A) missed your point and tried to show their superior (after the race) handicapping skills by picking the winner or B) can't accept the fact that handicapping value in the game of horse racing is completely gone.

You made the most relevant point possible. All the "dumb" money is gone. It is now living in slot machines and poker tables. In addition, with all of the information easily accesible to everyone, very few can find a true edge unless you have some inside knowledge.

Bottom line, especially at bigger tracks, if it's a 2-1 morning line, controlling speed and on the board at 3-1, toss it. This is absolute gospel in So. Cal. The only moderate "dumb" money there comes from the people that replied to this post.

I think you are making much more out of it, than it is. I wouldn't bet the horse for one reason. He looked distance limited to me.

The comment about "after the race handicapping" doesn't apply when it comes to my point. I picked the 30-1 shot at 9:15a the morning before the races. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52177
He ended up being a better bet...... I got it right when I ignored the horse in question............big deal. I got one right. I got a bunch wrong today.

I think this is just being over analyzed. I saw distance limits, and a bad race at 9F last out. Enough for me to throw the horse out. If he beats me at 3-1 or 5-1 good for all those who had him. You can kick value around all day long. You can analyze the board and read Brad Free every day......... don't make it harder than what it is........... :bang: This time there was no value playing South Coast.

DanG
11-02-2008, 06:44 AM
I would absolutely discount 90% of the responses here because they either A) missed your point and tried to show their superior (after the race) handicapping skills by picking the winner or B) can't accept the fact that handicapping value in the game of horse racing is completely gone.

You made the most relevant point possible. All the "dumb" money is gone.

Bottom line, especially at bigger tracks, if it's a 2-1 morning line, controlling speed and on the board at 3-1, toss it. This is absolute gospel in So. Cal. The only moderate "dumb" money there comes from the people that replied to this post.
Let’s forget for a second the irony in calling people who took the time to respond as “trying to look superior” and then ending with calling these people “dumb” because they may not agree with you.

Speaking of ‘not agreeing with you; I’ve played So Cal for many years straight now and that last line in red is flat out false.

There is STILL dumb money in these pools and to assume that every “wise guy” winds up on the same animal is proven wrong each day we gamble. Sure there is less dumb money overall; but to say it doesn’t or frankly will ever cease to exist is overlooking the basic pari-mutuel system and human nature.

Pell Mell
11-02-2008, 07:51 AM
When I worked for one of the best harness trainer/drivers in the business, he told me that when a horse that DIDN'T figure on paper was getting a lot of action, that was the time to follow the money.;)

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 08:42 AM
Let’s forget for a second the irony in calling people who took the time to respond as “trying to look superior” and then ending with calling these people “dumb” because they may not agree with you.

Speaking of ‘not agreeing with you; I’ve played So Cal for many years straight now and that last line in red is flat out false.

There is STILL dumb money in these pools and to assume that every “wise guy” winds up on the same animal is proven wrong each day we gamble. Sure there is less dumb money overall; but to say it doesn’t or frankly will ever cease to exist is overlooking the basic pari-mutuel system and human nature.

Smart and dumb money aside, i think the biggest hurdle that horseplayers like ourselves face is the people who arbitrage the market without really knowing all that much about handicapping. In the old days before all these computers and internet and sophisticated programs that bet for people, there was really no way that a person can get the right amount of money on the right combos. Nowadays, these people find a way to make sure things 'pay what they are supposed to'.

I think its more of an efficient market as opposed to smart vs dumb.

Robert Fischer
11-02-2008, 09:13 AM
Herein lies the rub. There is no public. 95% of all the monies bet are being bet by these people:

1) professional handicappers who have been following racing their entire lives

2) People who are really smart humans who aren't great handicappers or professional handicappers, but know how and where to buy the right information to get the job done a lot of the time, they know how to read the form and can spend 30 bucks on sophisticated speed figures that incorporate ground loss. They might not be long term winning players, but their hundreds and thousands find the right horses more times than a person like you and me would like them to.

3) People who have either done or hired computer robots to bet for them. These people are computer geniuses and they have a system devised to place the right amount of money on the right horses. They have teams of handicappers who make an accurate enough odds line, they plug that stuff into the program and they are on their way.

4) People on the inside of the game who know absolutely nothing about racing, but they know someone who knows a ton about racing and that person who knows a ton, releases the right horse to this guy who promptly bets anywhere from 2k to 5k to win.

5) Track vets, trainers, exercise riders, jockeys and owners who are serious bettors in this game and because they have a bit of an inside edge, they too will find the right horses more times than they should (considering that they really don't know how to handicap like a pro and don't really spend a lot of time handicapping). "live" runners present themselves in many ways and there are many people who really want to know who the right horse is going to be.

There is very little money that is being bet by someone who likes a name or a number. You are not betting against the hobo's on the first floor grandstand that you see every day when you go to the track. You know who i'm talking about, the typical degenerate with a voucher for 3.10 cents and he stands up at the self betting machine and takes 8 minutes to bet 31 seperate 10 cent super combos, most of them of the quick pick variety. You're NOT betting against that guy even though you'd love to think you are. Do you all know how many times i walked thru a racetrack grandstand and said to myself, "i can NEVER lose to THAT guy". I'll never do that again, because i'm not betting against Joe Hobo with his torn sneakers and bus passes sticking out of his lint filled pockets.

All those horses that go from 3-1 to 2-1 when the horses are halfway down the stretch is not the result of "the public". I'm not sure who it is, but it not Joe Hobo with the rolled up cigarette behind his ear and his dull #5 pencil.

The worst and most irresponsile thing a bettor can do is to assume his competition is dumb and doesn't know how to handicap. Once in a while you will get a horse that appears overlaid to your eyes and you'll laugh and say 'thank you' for giving me more than i deserved, but don't ever get lulled to sleep and think that your competition is dumb. There's an old saying that goes like this. There's a fish/sucker in every game, if you don't know who the fish is, its probably you.

If you use a different name than "the public" for "smart money", that's fine. Either way it is the market you are dealing with.

Unless you only bet fan-favorite horses like Commentator, Evening Attire, Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Curlin and follow those types relentlessly until they are in deep water,
or if you only stick to big event races with larger pools like the Derby, Breeders cup day and a few major stakes races...,
- you are going to have to beat the smart money at the every day races. For me that means passing nearly all the races I handicap, and only playing when i have a strong opinion that smart money is "wrong".

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 09:19 AM
If you use a different name than "the public" for "smart money", that's fine. Either way it is the market you are dealing with.

Unless you only bet fan-favorite horses like Commentator, Evening Attire, Indian Blessing, Zenyatta, Curlin and follow those types relentlessly until they are in deep water,
or if you only stick to big event races with larger pools like the Derby, Breeders cup day and a few major stakes races...,
- you are going to have to beat the smart money at the every day races. For me that means passing nearly all the races I handicap, and only playing when i have a strong opinion that smart money is "wrong".

Good post.

ddog
11-02-2008, 09:24 AM
one thing that does happen to be true about today's average pools - you ought to be passing a hell of a lot of races! There is a lot of so called smart money in the pools, making most of your potential plays value-less.

i never know an animal, and then bitch off of it like "oh no shes cold on the board"...

but all day i am sitting there saying "oh no all the money is on my horse, another pass"

you can't start comprimising in that situation

"F" the public! I will wait until they are wrong again.


Spot on! imo.

I played 3 races sat. out of about 40 I looked at.

cj
11-02-2008, 10:39 AM
All this tells me is "value" is directly related to how each individual sees a particular horse. Some people thought the initial horse posted was an overlay, some an underlay.

The big question I have is that if you perceive a horse should be a certain price, and he is going off above that price, but you don't bet him because he is "dead on the board", how do you ever make a bet?

ryesteve
11-02-2008, 10:59 AM
The big question I have is that if you perceive a horse should be a certain price, and he is going off above that price, but you don't bet him because he is "dead on the board", how do you ever make a bet?
I believe there's a difference between what one perceives is a fair price and what one estimates the horse will actually go off at. "Dead on the board" is relative to the price one expects, not the price one is demanding. Eg, I can look at a horse that I like for subtle reasons, and based on its ugly form on paper, I might expect it to go off anywhere from 8-1 or 12-1, but based on my assessment of the reasons I like the horse, I'd be happy to accept anything over 5-1. So if the horse ends up at 10-1, even though he's at twice my strike point, he's right in the range I anticipated.

cmoore
11-02-2008, 11:01 AM
Herein lies the rub. There is no public. 95% of all the monies bet are being bet by these people:

1) professional handicappers who have been following racing their entire lives

2) People who are really smart humans who aren't great handicappers or professional handicappers, but know how and where to buy the right information to get the job done a lot of the time, they know how to read the form and can spend 30 bucks on sophisticated speed figures that incorporate ground loss. They might not be long term winning players, but their hundreds and thousands find the right horses more times than a person like you and me would like them to.

3) People who have either done or hired computer robots to bet for them. These people are computer geniuses and they have a system devised to place the right amount of money on the right horses. They have teams of handicappers who make an accurate enough odds line, they plug that stuff into the program and they are on their way.

4) People on the inside of the game who know absolutely nothing about racing, but they know someone who knows a ton about racing and that person who knows a ton, releases the right horse to this guy who promptly bets anywhere from 2k to 5k to win.

5) Track vets, trainers, exercise riders, jockeys and owners who are serious bettors in this game and because they have a bit of an inside edge, they too will find the right horses more times than they should (considering that they really don't know how to handicap like a pro and don't really spend a lot of time handicapping). "live" runners present themselves in many ways and there are many people who really want to know who the right horse is going to be.

There is very little money that is being bet by someone who likes a name or a number. You are not betting against the hobo's on the first floor grandstand that you see every day when you go to the track. You know who i'm talking about, the typical degenerate with a voucher for 3.10 cents and he stands up at the self betting machine and takes 8 minutes to bet 31 seperate 10 cent super combos, most of them of the quick pick variety. You're NOT betting against that guy even though you'd love to think you are. Do you all know how many times i walked thru a racetrack grandstand and said to myself, "i can NEVER lose to THAT guy". I'll never do that again, because i'm not betting against Joe Hobo with his torn sneakers and bus passes sticking out of his lint filled pockets.

All those horses that go from 3-1 to 2-1 when the horses are halfway down the stretch is not the result of "the public". I'm not sure who it is, but it not Joe Hobo with the rolled up cigarette behind his ear and his dull #5 pencil.

The worst and most irresponsile thing a bettor can do is to assume his competition is dumb and doesn't know how to handicap. Once in a while you will get a horse that appears overlaid to your eyes and you'll laugh and say 'thank you' for giving me more than i deserved, but don't ever get lulled to sleep and think that your competition is dumb. There's an old saying that goes like this. There's a fish/sucker in every game, if you don't know who the fish is, its probably you.

Professional handicappers, really smart humans, computer betting robots and all on the inside of racing are all given way to much credit on your part imo. There's plenty of value still left out there. You just have to search for it a little more.

cj
11-02-2008, 11:05 AM
I guess I get it, but I think you guys are giving way too much credit to the public. I understand it in races where horses have little or no form, but this particular race was not like that.

If I don't think I can beat the public in a game like that, I'll find another hobby. I think the public made an error betting that horse to 3 to 1. He was the reason I saw value in the race.

Light
11-02-2008, 11:58 AM
Imriledup

Smart money/dumb money? You have a point on the subject but not on the race in question. 3 reasons.

A) Brad Free sucks.

B) Lone speed on turf is not the same as lone speed on dirt.

C) You're hung up on the board. Horses continue to win and lose regardless of the money bet on them or not bet on them.

DeanT
11-02-2008, 12:28 PM
I guess I get it, but I think you guys are giving way too much credit to the public.

It's not betting the public when you data mine this stuff Ceej. That's my point anyway. You are looking at what the public should be doing and when they do not you are asking yourself why and making betting decisions on that. You are finding hidden positives (or negatives) that are going into the odds.

Example, horse A is claimed from Assmussen by a 0% off the claim trainer. If you poll everyone in the grandstand they are saying "claimed off Assmussen, autopitch, no shot". But he is 5-2 on the board and there is 12,000 wanted to bet on the horse at 4.1 on betfair. If everyone hates this horse based on obvious positives, then there is something out of whack here. Evaluate and make a betting decision. This horse might not be overbet at all.

applebee
11-02-2008, 12:58 PM
I was just trying to use this race to illustrate my example and it turned into a thread about this race. Ok, lets go with that!

South Coast was done at the top of the lane. He's very seldom 'done' at the top of the lane, especially since he got loose in slow pace. My point originally was that he should have at least had more fight and not necessarily that he was supposed to beat Westerly Magic to the wire. My point was that his being 'done' so early and him being ignored in the betting at 3.30-1 isn't a coincidence.

The 2 horse Mississippian looked absolutely dreadful on paper, isn't a better horse than South Coast on anyone's handicapping systems or methods and yet beat him to the wire easily despite South Coast having a better trip.

Westerly Magic, although he looked great on paper, he defeated a horse named Romp on Oct 12th and Romp was another horse who is better than South Coast on no one's handicapping methods. Romp was slow as molasses on paper and never ever does a thing, yet he was able to race within a half length of WM in that race.

equisim has him at fair odds of 6-1 and only beating the 1 horse

bris prime power has him 11 points behind the 5(youre gonna need some luck and big odds to overcome that)

In my opinion the horse was way underlaid just from these simple facts.

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 02:17 PM
Imriledup

Smart money/dumb money? You have a point on the subject but not on the race in question. 3 reasons.

A) Brad Free sucks.

B) Lone speed on turf is not the same as lone speed on dirt.

C) You're hung up on the board. Horses continue to win and lose regardless of the money bet on them or not bet on them.

This has nothing to do with Brad Free's overall body of work. I'm just using him because he is, quite often, the voice of the way that Joe Public thinks. Brad's comment is what i'm going to evaluate as its own island.

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 02:26 PM
Gentlemen,


You are missing the point of the original post, let me try and explain it a different way.

This is not about whether South Coast was a good bet or not, the point being that in my opinion, he was largely ignored in the wagering and ran way worse than even the 3.30-1 odds indicated that he would. He took no 'live' money. It was only a 6 horse field and he was lone speed. I'm not sure how many here really follow So Cal T breds, but lone speed is POUNDED quite often regardless of how much of a shot the horse has to win. Lets say some of you are right and the horse didn't figure to win. He was still lone speed, was given out as lone speed by the public handicapper and showed lone speed with a 10 second once-over of the PPs.

This horse figured to be 3.30-1 or less just based on PPs, which means to me he took no extra money for being lone speed when California is all about betting loose frontrunners.

The horse went off much higher than i thought he would be after handicapping the race and the horse totally underachieved and stopped before they even got to midstretch. This horse's performance was a 'non-performance' which means we will never know what would have happened had he really felt good and been sound and ready to run an A race.

cj
11-02-2008, 02:38 PM
I get your point. I just think you picked a bad example. I don't think this horse figured to be bet to the level you do.

This was a Cal bred horse moving to open. He was a horse that lone speed or not gave no indication he wanted any part of 10 furlongs. Hell, he doesn't even want 9. Of course he stopped before mid stretch. The fact lone speed gets pounded in SoCal is proved by the fact he was 3 to 1. That doesn't change the fact the horse had much of a chance here. He ran exactly as I expected him to run. I would not call this a non performance at all.

This horse had not run within a length of the top last out figure in the race in any of his last 10 starts on my personal numbers. Those kind win about 7% of their starts and lose 34 cents per dollar bet. He also had not run a figure in his last 10 the could match the 3rd best last out race. Those kind win 4% and lost about 44 cents per dollar wagered.

Wait a minute...maybe I am smart money! :jump::jump::jump:

Imriledup
11-02-2008, 06:37 PM
I get your point. I just think you picked a bad example. I don't think this horse figured to be bet to the level you do.

This was a Cal bred horse moving to open. He was a horse that lone speed or not gave no indication he wanted any part of 10 furlongs. Hell, he doesn't even want 9. Of course he stopped before mid stretch. The fact lone speed gets pounded in SoCal is proved by the fact he was 3 to 1. That doesn't change the fact the horse had much of a chance here. He ran exactly as I expected him to run. I would not call this a non performance at all.

This horse had not run within a length of the top last out figure in the race in any of his last 10 starts on my personal numbers. Those kind win about 7% of their starts and lose 34 cents per dollar bet. He also had not run a figure in his last 10 the could match the 3rd best last out race. Those kind win 4% and lost about 44 cents per dollar wagered.

Wait a minute...maybe I am smart money! :jump::jump::jump:

We agree to disagree. This was a great example. You look at figures on paper and i look at tapes. Edge me. SC had never run 10 furlongs, but he's been able to handle strong pace pressure in route races and still gallop strong to the wire. He just didn't feel well, maybe he had a tummyache, no way a horse this good just falls apart with zero pressure vs slugs unless something was wrong inherently.

When you say "those kind" that has absolutely nothing to do with South Coast. He's his own unique situation.

South Coast should fighting power and gameness and was able to handle pace pressure in his career and had no fight at all, to me, that's a non performance.

LottaKash
11-02-2008, 07:32 PM
The big question I have is that if you perceive a horse should be a certain price, and he is going off above that price, but you don't bet him because he is "dead on the board", how do you ever make a bet?

The experienced player, often enough, when considering a contending horse, will perceive that it is DOB, and often enough he will be right on this score, yet at other times he will cuss himself after the results are in, perhaps saying something like, "how could I be that stupid, it was such an overlay"....We have all been there...

My approach to perceived DOB's, is something like this:..If I am anticipating my selection to be a low priced overlay, and it's handicapping criteria is obvious to all, and he is DOB, then I believe that most likely he is, and probably the board is pointing to some other viable contender(s) whose backstrtch connections are privvy to the news of this bounced or an ailing contender, so it is then, that I will back off on my endorsement for my original selection......On the other hand, when I am convinced that my Guts are correct, in that, I may have a very live one that has some hidden andvantage and edge. that the crowd generally ignores, then, my focus gets locked into the fluctuations, on my horse, that may flash thruout the betting up to and including the last minute of time...For instance; if my pick is say 5/1 m.l., and I expect and will play at those odds, and he is at that price-point or much higher, throughtout the betting, but at some time during the betting he gets a "vote of confidence flash" of say +2pts or more, at least once and better yet, a time-or-two more, somethwhere in the process, then, that is all I need, to keep my confidence in my play and I will make it....It is that simple to me......The higher the price the better.....:jump:

best,

InsideThePylons-MW
11-02-2008, 07:51 PM
Amazing how many replies in this thread mention the morning line in any form.

Why not use silk colors as a reason to bet or not to bet. They have the exact same importance as the ML.

Just incredible!

LottaKash
11-02-2008, 08:06 PM
Amazing how many replies in this thread mention the morning line in any form.

Why not use silk colors as a reason to bet or not to bet. They have the exact same importance as the ML.

Just incredible!

ok, my horse had Pink Silks, but being a guy I just didn't want to admit it.....:jump:


To my way of thinking, if we are trying to perceive and interpret true overlays and DOB's, then the crowd thinking and the "respective ml's" are part of the perception or deception equation, wouldn't one think ?....

oddsmaven
11-02-2008, 08:24 PM
I guess I get it, but I think you guys are giving way too much credit to the public.....
CJ, Just a few weeks ago in a thread you initiated on ML's, you stated that there just isn't much dumb money around anymore...aren't you contradicting yourself here? My view is that what the tote reflects is generally very sharp though certainly not infallible...is that how you see it?

ranchwest
11-02-2008, 10:24 PM
We agree to disagree. This was a great example. You look at figures on paper and i look at tapes. Edge me. SC had never run 10 furlongs, but he's been able to handle strong pace pressure in route races and still gallop strong to the wire. He just didn't feel well, maybe he had a tummyache, no way a horse this good just falls apart with zero pressure vs slugs unless something was wrong inherently.

When you say "those kind" that has absolutely nothing to do with South Coast. He's his own unique situation.

South Coast should fighting power and gameness and was able to handle pace pressure in his career and had no fight at all, to me, that's a non performance.

I'm of the opinion that the winner was extremely tough to beat. In a 6 horse race, there's not much room for good odds or chaos. I really don't care what odds South Coast was, he's not a bet. This was a play or pass on the favorite, depending on what odds you are willing to accept. To bet a horse to win, you have to think it has a legitimate shot to win. Sometimes there aren't any odds that are adequate.

cj
11-02-2008, 10:40 PM
We agree to disagree. This was a great example. You look at figures on paper and i look at tapes. Edge me.

Says who? If only it were that easy. Neither tells the whole story. I make numbers and often look at video to assist me.

SC had never run 10 furlongs, but he's been able to handle strong pace pressure in route races and still gallop strong to the wire. He just didn't feel well, maybe he had a tummyache, no way a horse this good just falls apart with zero pressure vs slugs unless something was wrong inherently.

My numbers tell me he hasn't handled strong pace pressure. He absolutely did not look like a horse that wanted any parts of 10f. You think it was because he didn't feel right...I don't buy that.

When you say "those kind" that has absolutely nothing to do with South Coast. He's his own unique situation.

South Coast should fighting power and gameness and was able to handle pace pressure in his career and had no fight at all, to me, that's a non performance.

There is always strength in numbers. If horses in that situation I mentioned run as poorly as they do, you are looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack trying to find good bets in the set.

cj
11-02-2008, 10:41 PM
My approach to perceived DOB's, is something like this:..If I am anticipating my selection to be a low priced overlay, and it's handicapping criteria is obvious to all, and he is DOB, then I believe that most likely he is, and probably the board is pointing to some other viable contender(s) whose backstrtch connections are privvy to the news of this bounced or an ailing contender, so it is then, that I will back off on my endorsement for my original selection......

Exactly! This horse had criteria that were obviously bad to at least many handicappers, though obviously not all.

cj
11-02-2008, 10:43 PM
CJ, Just a few weeks ago in a thread you initiated on ML's, you stated that there just isn't much dumb money around anymore...aren't you contradicting yourself here? My view is that what the tote reflects is generally very sharp though certainly not infallible...is that how you see it?

I think that the tote is pretty sharp in general, but that in almost every race they make a few mistakes. Sometimes, the mistakes are big enough to warrant a bet, other times not. In this case I thought South Beach was vastly overbet, enough so to make all the other horses possible bets.

Imriledup
11-03-2008, 12:37 AM
Says who? If only it were that easy. Neither tells the whole story. I make numbers and often look at video to assist me.



My numbers tell me he hasn't handled strong pace pressure. He absolutely did not look like a horse that wanted any parts of 10f. You think it was because he didn't feel right...I don't buy that.



There is always strength in numbers. If horses in that situation I mentioned run as poorly as they do, you are looking for the proverbial needle in a haystack trying to find good bets in the set.

So, you think South Coast ran his A race and that's his best possible effort? I know the horse well, i've seen all his lifetime starts and he just didn't race well. Your point is that South Coast ran his A race and just lost fair and square and my contention is that he just stunk out the joint and had a bad day and that wasn't anything close to his A race and the inside money knew it in advance. That's all i'm saying.

Imriledup
11-03-2008, 12:39 AM
The experienced player, often enough, when considering a contending horse, will perceive that it is DOB, and often enough he will be right on this score, yet at other times he will cuss himself after the results are in, perhaps saying something like, "how could I be that stupid, it was such an overlay"....We have all been there...

My approach to perceived DOB's, is something like this:..If I am anticipating my selection to be a low priced overlay, and it's handicapping criteria is obvious to all, and he is DOB, then I believe that most likely he is, and probably the board is pointing to some other viable contender(s) whose backstrtch connections are privvy to the news of this bounced or an ailing contender, so it is then, that I will back off on my endorsement for my original selection......On the other hand, when I am convinced that my Guts are correct, in that, I may have a very live one that has some hidden andvantage and edge. that the crowd generally ignores, then, my focus gets locked into the fluctuations, on my horse, that may flash thruout the betting up to and including the last minute of time...For instance; if my pick is say 5/1 m.l., and I expect and will play at those odds, and he is at that price-point or much higher, throughtout the betting, but at some time during the betting he gets a "vote of confidence flash" of say +2pts or more, at least once and better yet, a time-or-two more, somethwhere in the process, then, that is all I need, to keep my confidence in my play and I will make it....It is that simple to me......The higher the price the better.....:jump:

best,

Excellent points. I felt that if SC was set to run an A race, no way he goes off at 3.30-1 as lone speed.

JustRalph
11-03-2008, 06:28 AM
Great thread.


It will be interesting to see what distance they bring him back at............

anybody got him on a watch list to update this thread later?

Track Phantom
11-03-2008, 04:20 PM
Gentlemen,


You are missing the point of the original post, let me try and explain it a different way.

This is not about whether South Coast was a good bet or not, the point being that in my opinion, he was largely ignored in the wagering and ran way worse than even the 3.30-1 odds indicated that he would. He took no 'live' money. It was only a 6 horse field and he was lone speed. I'm not sure how many here really follow So Cal T breds, but lone speed is POUNDED quite often regardless of how much of a shot the horse has to win. Lets say some of you are right and the horse didn't figure to win. He was still lone speed, was given out as lone speed by the public handicapper and showed lone speed with a 10 second once-over of the PPs.

This horse figured to be 3.30-1 or less just based on PPs, which means to me he took no extra money for being lone speed when California is all about betting loose frontrunners.

The horse went off much higher than i thought he would be after handicapping the race and the horse totally underachieved and stopped before they even got to midstretch. This horse's performance was a 'non-performance' which means we will never know what would have happened had he really felt good and been sound and ready to run an A race.

You couldnt' be clearer. Great example and perfect point. Unfortunately, there are quite a few here that don't understand the overarching message you are trying to make.

I do. It is 100% spot on.

Track Phantom
11-03-2008, 04:32 PM
Amazing how many replies in this thread mention the morning line in any form.

Why not use silk colors as a reason to bet or not to bet. They have the exact same importance as the ML.

Just incredible!

Blatantly stupid comment given the nature of this thread. It's NOT about the morning line. However, many fringe players will use the morning line in place of handicapping, especially horizontal plays.

The Judge
11-03-2008, 04:52 PM
Was the first person I heard address this issue head-on, not saying he is the only one just the 1st I remember. He liken it to buying a house the was beautiful in a nice neighborhood with no obvious flaws and its selling for alot less then the other houses around.

If you know why its selling for less (bad roof water in the basement) O.K if not something is wrong. Why are you the lucky one to get such a deal. Same with horses.

He went on and kind of ended with if you are at the poker table and don't know who the patsy is "its you".

cj
11-03-2008, 04:55 PM
Was the first person I heard address this issue head-on, not saying he is the only one just the 1st I remember. He liken it to buying a house the was beautiful in a nice neighborhood with no obvious flaws and its selling for alot less then the other houses around.

If you know why its selling for less (bad roof water in the basement) O.K if not something is wrong. Why are you the lucky one to get such a deal. Same with horses.

He went on and kind of ended with if you are at the poker table and don't know who the patsy is "its you".

There is no doubt there is some validity to the theory. The thing here is many didn't see that horse as all that beautiful.

DeanT
11-03-2008, 05:01 PM
I agree with both those last two posts.

1. When a drf consensus type pick goes off at double the morning line it is more likely a signal rather than a bad line (not that that happened here in the SA race), and we should be wary and adjust our odds line accordingly.

2. We like to blame things on inside money, and a lot of times the action on the board is described by sharpies like CJ realizing the public horse aint all it is cracked up to be, and not some grand conspiracy.

My opinion does hold to me through all this though: If you can distinguish between the above two scenarios you can increase your ROI.

InsideThePylons-MW
11-03-2008, 06:53 PM
Blatantly stupid comment given the nature of this thread. It's NOT about the morning line. However, many fringe players will use the morning line in place of handicapping, especially horizontal plays.

The morning line is one man's opinion. It has nothing to do with whether a horse is an actual overlay or underlay. Nothing!

I've had plenty of 1st hand experience with guys who make ML's and making them myself. I know they are worthless and mean nothing as to whether a horse is an underlay or an overlay.

It is just mind-boggling how someone can think that a 3-1 that is 2-1 on the ML is dead and a 3-1 that is 5-1 on the ML is live.

Track Phantom
11-03-2008, 10:44 PM
The morning line is one man's opinion. It has nothing to do with whether a horse is an actual overlay or underlay. Nothing!

I've had plenty of 1st hand experience with guys who make ML's and making them myself. I know they are worthless and mean nothing as to whether a horse is an underlay or an overlay.

It is just mind-boggling how someone can think that a 3-1 that is 2-1 on the ML is dead and a 3-1 that is 5-1 on the ML is live.

try reading more and typing less

InsideThePylons-MW
11-03-2008, 11:24 PM
try reading more and typing less

Here's what I read. What did you read?

There was a race today at Hollywood Park on the turf at a mile and a quarter for 6 contestants. The 6 horse was a horse named South Coast who was 2-1 morning line, he was a close 2nd choice behind 9-5 ML favorite Westerly Magic.Also, he was AMAZING value at 3-1.

Or, was he?

No way a 2-1 ML horse who figures to be lone speed goes off at 3-1 unless he's ice cold and has no shot.

:bang:

DeanT
11-03-2008, 11:42 PM
ITP,

He makes a good point (Im riled up) because ML horses are usually overbet more, by a slight amount, not underbet.

From an article called finding an edge on jcapper, ML horses are overbet by a couple of points. In this crazy high rake game, any edge you have is a good one.

By: Morning Line Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact

1 -10705.00 51096.00 0.7905 7963 25548 .3117 2.5230

2 -9762.10 51474.00 0.8103 5140 25737 .1997 1.6166

3 -10119.20 54976.00 0.8159 4082 27488 .1485 1.2021

InsideThePylons-MW
11-04-2008, 12:40 AM
ITP,

He makes a good point (Im riled up) because ML horses are usually overbet more, by a slight amount, not underbet.

I understand that. Most horses lined 8/5, 7/5 etc are almost always bet down to 3/5, 4/5 etc. so that's where the overbetting comes into play which causes the dip.

The most obvious of possible winners to the ML maker and the bettors will always be overbet. ML has nothing to do with obvious overbet.

Imriledup
11-04-2008, 01:14 AM
The morning line is one man's opinion. It has nothing to do with whether a horse is an actual overlay or underlay. Nothing!

I've had plenty of 1st hand experience with guys who make ML's and making them myself. I know they are worthless and mean nothing as to whether a horse is an underlay or an overlay.

It is just mind-boggling how someone can think that a 3-1 that is 2-1 on the ML is dead and a 3-1 that is 5-1 on the ML is live.

The ML odds maker in So Cal is better than most oddsmakers in the country. He's very good and better tham most players. The only bettors who are better than this particular morning lines makers are the top pros.

With that said, you are either not reading all my posts, or you are reading them and not understanding. Its not as 'simple' as me thinking the horse was an overlay because of the differential between morning line and actual price. In my opinion, this horse should have went off at anywhere from 6-5 to 8-5 odds. I'm going on my own opinion and not the ML maker's opinion. Maybe i shouldn't have ever quoted the morning line at all in any of my posts, but if you read them all carefully, you can see that what i'm trying to say is that the performance of the horse reflected his overlaid odds and that i didn't believe that it was a coincidence.

This post is using a California example to illustate a general point, but the example i used turned out to be Calif specific and would take a really strong knowledge of the So Cal product to really understand what i'm saying. If you don't know So Cal at all, than this might be hard for you to understand this particular example.

I could use a NYRA race as an example, but i don't follow NYRA all that closely and wouldn't have any knowledge of how good the ML odds maker is or how the public bets certain situations.

LottaKash
11-04-2008, 01:39 AM
of my posts, but if you read them all carefully, you can see that what i'm trying to say .

I See.....:jump: ....

best,

InsideThePylons-MW
11-04-2008, 02:10 AM
The ML odds maker in So Cal is better than most oddsmakers in the country. He's very good and better tham most players. The only bettors who are better than this particular morning lines makers are the top pros.

With that said, you are either not reading all my posts, or you are reading them and not understanding. Its not as 'simple' as me thinking the horse was an overlay because of the differential between morning line and actual price. In my opinion, this horse should have went off at anywhere from 6-5 to 8-5 odds. I'm going on my own opinion and not the ML maker's opinion. Maybe i shouldn't have ever quoted the morning line at all in any of my posts, but if you read them all carefully, you can see that what i'm trying to say is that the performance of the horse reflected his overlaid odds and that i didn't believe that it was a coincidence.

This post is using a California example to illustate a general point, but the example i used turned out to be Calif specific and would take a really strong knowledge of the So Cal product to really understand what i'm saying. If you don't know So Cal at all, than this might be hard for you to understand this particular example.

I could use a NYRA race as an example, but i don't follow NYRA all that closely and wouldn't have any knowledge of how good the ML odds maker is or how the public bets certain situations.

I understand everything you are saying and thinking 100%.

Basically it seems that your opinion on South Coast was just wrong. It could have been right, but it wasn't. Using the ML of 2/1 to back up your opinion was what I know is wrong.

The guy at SA, Jeff, is slighty better than the guy at Hol, Russ.

Russ, one guys opinion, probably looked at the race and said South Coast should be 7/2 off of form but since everybody is going to bet him because it's obvious he's the only speed, his ML will be 2/1. That's his job to predict the public. If he hates a 3/1 shot that he thinks has no chance, he doesn't make him 20-1 on the ML. So basically your argument that he's sharp, has no bearing on what the ML is.

Imriledup
11-04-2008, 03:33 AM
I understand everything you are saying and thinking 100%.

Basically it seems that your opinion on South Coast was just wrong. It could have been right, but it wasn't. Using the ML of 2/1 to back up your opinion was what I know is wrong.

The guy at SA, Jeff, is slighty better than the guy at Hol, Russ.

Russ, one guys opinion, probably looked at the race and said South Coast should be 7/2 off of form but since everybody is going to bet him because it's obvious he's the only speed, his ML will be 2/1. That's his job to predict the public. If he hates a 3/1 shot that he thinks has no chance, he doesn't make him 20-1 on the ML. So basically your argument that he's sharp, has no bearing on what the ML is.

The reason i brought up the morning line is that you seemed to use a blanket statement making fun of the morning line in general. I just wanted to add that sometimes its a pretty good line and to stereotype morning lines is just that, a stereotype.

Everyone is an expert after the fact, but that doesn't do anyone any good as in most jurisdictions, they make you bet before the race starts.