Jonnielu At Keenland!!

[Maxspa]

All,
Any comments from people who were involved with Jonnielu program at Keenland? Jonnielu has conducted some seminars at Gulfstream and of late at Keenland!
Just Curious,
Maxspa

[point given]

All,
Any comments from people who were involved with Jonnielu program at Keenland? Jonnielu has conducted some seminars at Gulfstream and of late at Keenland!
Just Curious,
Maxspa

Could you explain, i havenot heard of this ? :confused:

[Maxspa]

Point Given,
Jonnielu is the handicapper that created his own figures called "Ability X"
ratings. He also has an on track "visual" package. At Gulfstream he would go to the paddock and relay horse information back to his subscribers. it would help them identify horses that visually looked ready to win!
One poster implied that people don't win at the races and he challenged that person with a free subscription to his service at Keenland. I was interested in finding out how that person and others that signed up for his service made out!
Maxspa
P.S. This message is for information only, I'm not trying to promote this service!

[Maxspa]

All,
Since no one has commented,


THEY MUST HAVE HAD A LOSING EXPERIENCE!


Maxspa

[jonnielu]

All,
Since no one has commented,


THEY MUST HAVE HAD A LOSING EXPERIENCE!


Maxspa

Hey Max,

This would assume that there are some on this board, or some that read this board, that took the seminar and also care to comment.

Do you suppose that to be a fair assumption to make?

jdl

[ddog]

it's a big board??

[jonnielu]

it's a big board??

That much is true, dog. And, the overwhelming majority don't have much to say, although they may be avid lurkers.

What Max has thrown up does create an interesting thread.

There are so many here that wholehearted believe that if someone truly knew much about winning in this game... they would be pretty tight-lipped, if not totally silent.

But, then the assumption of failure is quickly made when no commentors jump in.

jdl

[Maxspa]

Jonnielu,
A lot of assumptions here! One if the person on this board did take you up on your offer and had a good experience. He should in my opinion give credit to your program. Now if he didn't take advantage of your offer then that's another scenario!
I thought since you are involved in many board discussions that you would have read the original message and filled us in with what really happened! I for one was simply interested in how your program progressed at Keenland!
Maxspa

[jonnielu]

Jonnielu,
A lot of assumptions here! One if the person on this board did take you up on your offer and had a good experience. He should in my opinion give credit to your program. Now if he didn't take advantage of your offer then that's another scenario!
I thought since you are involved in many board discussions that you would have read the original message and filled us in with what really happened! I for one was simply interested in how your program progressed at Keenland!
Maxspa

Hey Max,

The person you are thinking of did not take advantage. I saw the original post, but thought it more appropriate to stay out in case there were some board members that did want to respond. If it is not mentioned, I don't know if anyone is a member here or not.

I directed that seminar more at the local, newer, younger, not-so-much-a-handicapper crowd too. A few people that have been subscribing for a couple of months showed. They seem to be much more concerned about the prices going up then they are about "spreading the word". The "lone-wolf" mindset of the horseplayer seems to block a lot of positive feedback.

As far as how the ratings performed, I'd figure that any thing I had to say would sound too good to be true, I will admit that I dismissed the meetings high winner ($124.80), as "too fast" for a personal win bet. That comes from some of the handicapping habits that I still retain. Keeneland's director of mutuels was monitering the ratings through the meeting, you could ask him what he thought.

But, the question always comes back to, "will it make me a winner?" And my answer is still... that it can.

It seems to be a matter of how soon can you overcome some of your beliefs. Just like me, I still have to forget about what I think is "too fast" for the turf, so that I can get to 100% faith in the numbers.

Because the no-brainers are running all over the country.

jdl

[Tom]

Speaking of no-brainers.......

Number of bets _______

Number of wins _______

Win % ______________

Amount Bet _____________

Amount returned _____________

ROI _____________________

[Tom Barrister]

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

[rrbauer]

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

Would "mystical" be a good description?

[jonnielu]

I went and looked at the website and some of the archived ratings with results. I'm afraid that I don't understand how the plays are chosen. The "orange" ratings and the favorite are the ones used for horizontal wagering, but there doesn't seem to be much logic to why each "orange" rating is chosen, e.g. they aren't always either the highest Ability-X rating or the highest early speed rating.

In the winter of 1981, I was winning consistently for the first time at GP. To make it short, the way we were doing it was by letting everybody else do the figuring and jumping in on it after 3 were in the gate. After one 7f race, I was standing in line to cash a ticket on a 7 to 1 winner when the guy behind me asked how the hell I could figure that horse, and he was demanding an explanation since he was quite upset about it. He said that he had gone to MIT and he couldn't figure that horse. There was only one thing that I could tell him.

I told him that sometimes it just doesn't figure in the way that you would figure it. Actually, it practically never figures the way you would figure it, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't figure at all. It just means that the way you would expect it to figure may need some adjustment.

The un-expected continues to happen, so when do we start to examine our expectations and adjust them to what continues to happen, to the point that one day... it figures.

9th - 8.5fD
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

109 4 92 15 201
76 2 91 15 167
118 7 89 6 207
89 9 88 3 177
107 6 87 5 194
120 3 87 12 207
100 1 86 5 186
102 5 85 15 187
126 11 84 15 210
91 8 84 4 175
128 10 79 12 207

Let's wipe our brains clean for a minute, and bring just a few facts to mind.

The favorite, #9, has a 30% chance to win this race.

The number on the left is the horses ability to run 8.5f.

The average winner's par for this distance is 100 / 85 ES

A "run" number higher then par would suggest more running in the stretch, while a "run" number lower then par would suggest more running early. 100 is balance.

I'll also ask that you suppose, just for a little while, that time, class, surface, trainer, jockey, recency, won/lost.... etc. is extraneous information.

Take a shot with what you've got.

jdl

[Tom Barrister]

All of that doesn't explain why selections are made that don't have the high, low, or middle number in any of the three rating categories.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Don't worry Johnny.I think you are a self ordained chalk player genius but I believe in you!!!!.Not sure about your Keeneland picks,but I win more often than not and I think you do too.The hatred of that fact is deep.Take care...

And Oh let me quote Oscar Wilde,"To love oneself is the beginning of a lifelong romance"

Classic!!!!


Winning is a habit,as is non self hatred.

Tough sell on this board.

[jonnielu]

All of that doesn't explain why selections are made that don't have the high, low, or middle number in any of the three rating categories.

Perhaps not, but it is another attempt to get it explained. I think I can get the job done if you would engage, because different people will apply whatever perspective they have adopted, or believe to be "best" overall.

There are 6 horses in this race that anyone could find a logical reason for betting. It can also be said that there are 6 horses here with a relatively equal chance of winning. The player that can understand this can come to understand those changes that have come to pass in our sport. While the same consistencies still present themselves, other consistencies emerge that may be going un-noticed in the viewpoint of past performances.

Which horse are you directed to by the information you have? That is how the selections are made. If you were going to select one horse for a win bet, which one would it be?

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

The winner!!:jump: :jump:

[Tom Barrister]

Perhaps not, but it is another attempt to get it explained. I think I can get the job done if you would engage, because different people will apply whatever perspective they have adopted, or believe to be "best" overall.

There are 6 horses in this race that anyone could find a logical reason for betting. It can also be said that there are 6 horses here with a relatively equal chance of winning. The player that can understand this can come to understand those changes that have come to pass in our sport. While the same consistencies still present themselves, other consistencies emerge that may be going un-noticed in the viewpoint of past performances.

Which horse are you directed to by the information you have? That is how the selections are made. If you were going to select one horse for a win bet, which one would it be?

jdl

I'm tired of all of the smoke and mirrors here. You can spout the 35 cent words until the cows come home, and they don't mean a thing unless they can be applied to the issue at hand.

How would I (or anybody else who hasn't paid for your service and gotten your Ebook) know which horse to bet, based on your numbers? I don't understand how they work yet. Are bigger or smaller numbers better? What are the numbers on the right? How do the numbers on the right, left, and middle, relate to each other? What is "100" par for, the middle numbers? If so, what's par for the other two sets of numbers?

It's obvious that simply playing the highest or lowest number isn't getting the selections recommended in the archives. Something else must be at work there. The issue is this:

YOU KNOW HOW THEY WORK, AND THE REST OF US DON'T.

I'm not going to spend $40 to get your Ebook and subscribe to your ratings for a month just to satisfy myself as to how the numbers are supposed to work. If your Ability-X ratings are proprietary and can't be duplicated by others (and that's the message I get loud and clear), then you have nothing to lose by distributing your Ebook freely or at least giving a capsule summary of how the ratings work, since that information is without value unless the user also has your Abilty-X ratings. If anything, it would help stimulate sales, since users could go check the archives to see what's going on.

All I've seen so far is abstract and ambiguous Quinn-like pontificating that has nothing to do with either question I've asked.

[jonnielu]

I'm tired of all of the smoke and mirrors here. You can spout the 35 cent words until the cows come home, and they don't mean a thing unless they can be applied to the issue at hand.

How would I (or anybody else who hasn't paid for your service and gotten your Ebook) know which horse to bet, based on your numbers? I don't understand how they work yet. Are bigger or smaller numbers better? What are the numbers on the right? How do the numbers on the right, left, and middle, relate to each other? What is "100" par for, the middle numbers? If so, what's par for the other two sets of numbers?

It's obvious that simply playing the highest or lowest number isn't getting the selections recommended in the archives. Something else must be at work there. The issue is this:

YOU KNOW HOW THEY WORK, AND THE REST OF US DON'T.

I'm not going to spend $40 to get your Ebook and subscribe to your ratings for a month just to satisfy myself as to how the numbers are supposed to work. If your Ability-X ratings are proprietary and can't be duplicated by others (and that's the message I get loud and clear), then you have nothing to lose by distributing your Ebook freely or at least giving a capsule summary of how the ratings work, since that information is without value unless the user also has your Abilty-X ratings. If anything, it would help stimulate sales, since users could go check the archives to see what's going on.

All I've seen so far is abstract and ambiguous Quinn-like pontificating that has nothing to do with either question I've asked.

I'm sorry Tom, I was just trying to give you an explanation. I didn't realize that I was using 35 cent words, I guess that I've forgotten all the good 50 centers that I used to use. I've got them on a list somewhere.... anyway, the truth is that it just isn't all that complicated.

After all of this time, I am convinced that is the point that I just can't get across, it is simple. Horse racing is simple, our want for complication is what is in our way.

I suppose that even as I say to you that it is simple, you see me as a smart-assed-know-it-all-bastard, trying to rub in your face that I know something that you don't.

All I was trying to do was to tell you what I thought you wanted to know.

jdl

[Tom Barrister]

Let's dumb this down for whoever isn't following what I'm after:

I have three horses, with the following ratings:

#1 05
#2 38
#3 70
#4 14
#5 95
#6 28
#7 50

I now proclaim to one and all that #2 is the best play of these horses.

Someobdy askes me "why is #2 the best?"

My explanation is that "The ratings you see represent the horse's ability to race at the distance under the matchup conditions that exist in this race." along with another three paragraphs of big-word pontification.

I'm asked: "Why is the horse with a rating of 38 chosen? Why not the highest number or the lowest number?"

My answer is: "Users of my methodology understand the stress involved in a matchup related to the par value of the race and immediately know that #2 matches the stress-of-matchup related to the dynamics of deceleration and anaerobic theory."

Now I'm asked: "That doesn't explain why a number somewhere between the top and bottom is better than the highest or lowest number. Why is it best?"

My answer is: "I'm sorry if you can't understand it. All of my users do. Good luck."

So somebody finally buys my Ebook and subscribes to my numbers, and they get a PDF file that explains the Methodology as so:

"The Barrister Ability Ratings are all about balance. 37 is the balance point in my ratings. Therefore, you should always play the number closest to 37." along with another sixteen pages of Quinn-like explanations.

Now how is anybody supposed to know that without my explaining it to them?

You haven't given anybody a clue as to how to use your ratings, which means that somebody who hasn't paid for or otherwise come across your Ebook (and shelled out $40) can possibly verify that the archives on your page (or the example you showed here) are representative of the actual plays.

To put it bluntly: When somebody is choosing horses that don't have the highest or lowest rating, and then refuses to explain how the horses are chosen, it looks a lot like.....


Now I don't mind spending $40 on Books/Ebooks, and I've bought many which taught me little, the hope being that I learned anything of value, which will make the purchase worthwhile. Buying your EBook, which apparently is the only way anybody is ever going to learn how to use your ratings, is at best going to teach me how to use the ratings, and if your ratings aren't any good, then all I've learned for my $40 is that it's stupid to pay $40 for nothing, and I already know that.

Good luck selling your warez. As for me, I can buy a lighter, some wood to burn, and a hand mirror for a lot less than $40.

[Tom]

Well, this certainly is a novel approach to marketing! :lol:

[njcurveball]

Horse racing is simple

OK then, I have one simple question for you. Two people come to the Seminar, pay for your product and handicap the 9 race card (in separate rooms). At the end of the day, will they both have come up with the SAME 9 horses to win?

If you advise betting two horses, will they have come up with the SAME 18 horses to win?

I may have missed a hundred or so posts, so please indulge me here. Is there a model that may allow for differences? Is there any hard work that goes on behind the scenes?

One variable, one decision, THAT would be simple. Your posts are very "46 like", explaining things are simple, but when asked, you can only say you had the winner, as opposed to the correct path that got you there.

Here is what I term "simple". Bet the #1 horse in every race. Here is what I do NOT term "simple", take the #6 rated horse in race 1, the #4 rated horse in race 2, the #3 rated horse in race 3, etc.

I totally, TOTALLY understand a black box is a losing proposition in this game, which is why I would NEVER tell anyone it is simple.

If you want to continue to be "46 like", you will gain some followers. Heck, Mass Murderers have fan clubs too. So good luck in your endeavor! :ThmbUp:


Jim

[jonnielu]

Well, this certainly is a novel approach to marketing! :lol:
A different approach may be more descriptive, Tom. Tom Barrister sees it as a snake oil approach, which is pretty much a given for the horseplayer community.
As soon as I claim to have any worthwhile information, the horseplayer goes into disbelief mode because he already believes that such a thing is not possible.

I truly believe that this is not marketable to the handicapper in the first place. At least not in any traditional way. Tom Barrister has a point though, it should be given away along with some instruction in how to use it and learn from it. I'm asking the racetracks to give it away and offer a class.

I am just not in a position to do that, nor do I have any desire to do that since I don't own a racetrack or ADW. More efficient, or more volumous wagering does not directly benefit me.

Everybody operates according to what they believe, I believe that racing is stagnated on the fan side because the handicapper generally believes that there is nothing left to discover. So, he only looks for different ways to string together what he already knows.

jdl

[jonnielu]

OK then, I have one simple question for you. Two people come to the Seminar, pay for your product and handicap the 9 race card (in separate rooms). At the end of the day, will they both have come up with the SAME 9 horses to win?

Anything is possible, I suppose that the likelihood would depend on how similar the 2 people were in there point of view on horse racing. If they were polar opposites and one did better then the other, the one that didn't do well might be motivated to make some changes.


If you advise betting two horses, will they have come up with the SAME 18 horses to win?


See above.


I may have missed a hundred or so posts, so please indulge me here. Is there a model that may allow for differences? Is there any hard work that goes on behind the scenes?


Hard work is for suckers. I don't know what you mean by a model that would allow for differences.


One variable, one decision, THAT would be simple. Your posts are very "46 like", explaining things are simple, but when asked, you can only say you had the winner, as opposed to the correct path that got you there.

There are many variables, there are several animals that will run around a track. There are a few betting decisions in the offing. There is no single correct path. One might consider all things, half of the things, or just one of the things. Each perspective could succeed. A busted clock is right twice a day. All of that is simple.


Here is what I term "simple". Bet the #1 horse in every race. Here is what I do NOT term "simple", take the #6 rated horse in race 1, the #4 rated horse in race 2, the #3 rated horse in race 3, etc.


It may be just as simple to bet the number of the race for each race, and more complex is not automatically more effective. I suppose it would boil down to how simple or complex do you want it?


I totally, TOTALLY understand a black box is a losing proposition in this game, which is why I would NEVER tell anyone it is simple.


What you believe is either true or it is not, telling people what you believe does not make it any more or less valid. I believe that a black box, as you understand that to be, is not possible, but, I can't say that I believe simple methods to be losing propositions.


If you want to continue to be "46 like", you will gain some followers. Heck, Mass Murderers have fan clubs too. So good luck in your endeavor! :ThmbUp:

Jim

I'm not like 46, and I'm not like you either. Just curious. Why would you liken me to a mass murderer?

[cj's dad]

[QUOTE
And Oh let me quote Oscar Wilde,"To love oneself is the beginning of a lifelong romance"
QUOTE]

Too much of that and you could go blind.:lol:

[pktruckdriver]

CJ's Dad

Too much of that and you could go blind


Not true so far.

Also what is not true , even with this Ebook I could not figure this out, and have at more than once tried to get one on one training with the author, but have been rubuked, or ignored.

Attempts at hooking up in person have gone unanswered in emails and even now I attempt to hook up with him at Gulfstream this coming meet, and now he states he will not be there, or may only be there for a week, the week I can't make it, of course.

My attempts to set up a meeting in Kentucky this summer have also gone un- answered and the emails too, I did however get a few numbers,(ability X Factors), emailed to me, and I have not been able to decipher them, and it may be that I am slower than most, maybe, but then wouldn't you provide a one on one that you claim you provide to someone who asks for it, please exxplain why you don't.

I have been quiet thru all this and have been trying to arrange a chance to get together to figure thus out....


And it seems my gullability has gotten the best of me again, when I signed up for this, I admit that, but I was new to the board and willing to check it out, I did and now am no closer to figuring out what the numbers mean, or how to bet them, and , "he just will not teach me how to do it either", after many attempts, and I am now tired of trying, I wish it had money back guarantee, but even that isn't neccessary, as I could write it down to another ,"School of Hard Knocks" lesson, hopefully learned and move on, but I just could not sit out anymore, hope this help you decide MAXSPA.

Patrick

PS: Ask me anything you want I will try to answer your questions, because I have since gotten a software program I found on the Board and I am very very happy with it and will still be open to new things , but I found something here on PA that has fulfilled my needs and for that I am a Happy Trucker. Now, For, Horseplayer U it was not the nicest experience for me, sorry Jon, but it is the truth.

[njcurveball]

Why would you liken me to a mass murderer?

I apologize for that analogy. My point was that no matter what a person thinks, they will always find someone to agree. But from your response, it was misunderstood.

If I could delete that line I would. As for your other thoughts, you are sounding just like 46's brother! There is ONE answer in YOUR mind, it is the RIGHT one. When asked to explain, you come up with things like

There is no single correct path. One might consider all things, half of the things, or just one of the things. Each perspective could succeed.

OK, good, so WHY get involved with you? Seriously? What can you teach other than confusion?

[LottaKash]

Why would you liken me to a mass murderer?

OK Johnnielu, why dijah-doit ?.....Oh the the humanity of it all.......:jump:

best,

[cj's dad]

Regarding your location @ Keeneland, exactly where was it in relation to the "snake oil booth"

[jonnielu]

I apologize for that analogy. My point was that no matter what a person thinks, they will always find someone to agree. But from your response, it was misunderstood.

If I could delete that line I would. As for your other thoughts, you are sounding just like 46's brother! There is ONE answer in YOUR mind, it is the RIGHT one. When asked to explain, you come up with things like

There is no single correct path. One might consider all things, half of the things, or just one of the things. Each perspective could succeed.

OK, good, so WHY get involved with you? Seriously? What can you teach other than confusion?

If I can't teach you to think, I can't teach you anything. If you could think, you wouldn't need anybody to teach you much of anything.

You shouldn't get involved with me, I would be a bad influence on you. Take a tip from Patrick, I gave him nothing but bad advise and almost convinced him that if he couldn't make a living with $20 bills betting horses that he should stay in the truck. I also told him that he could make it, if he changed his habits too. Good thing that he has learned better.

Of course, you've always known that I am a lunatic, so you don't even have anything to recover from. Patrick will probably be out of the truck by Christmas and Max has been saved from disaster. After a year of cautious examination he may have leaped in for a month's subscription. Who knows how much that may have warped his mind.

jdl

[jonnielu]

CJ's Dad




Not true so far.

Also what is not true , even with this Ebook I could not figure this out, and have at more than once tried to get one on one training with the author, but have been rubuked, or ignored.

Attempts at hooking up in person have gone unanswered in emails and even now I attempt to hook up with him at Gulfstream this coming meet, and now he states he will not be there, or may only be there for a week, the week I can't make it, of course.

My attempts to set up a meeting in Kentucky this summer have also gone un- answered and the emails too, I did however get a few numbers,(ability X Factors), emailed to me, and I have not been able to decipher them, ...

Gee, you forgot to mention the offer of support for you going to Saratoga. But, I guess that might tend to brighten my filthy, low-life, snake-oil image.

jdl

[cj]

I asked several months ago how to read these numbers and never did get a straight answer. Nothing has changed I see.

[jonnielu]

I asked several months ago how to read these numbers and never did get a straight answer. Nothing has changed I see.

9th - 8.5fD
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

109 4 92 15 201
76 2 91 15 167
118 7 89 6 207
89 9 88 3 177
107 6 87 5 194
120 3 87 12 207
100 1 86 5 186
102 5 85 15 187
126 11 84 15 210
91 8 84 4 175
128 10 79 12 207


Sorry for the spacing, the lower rating is better, here #2 is lowest.
#2 paid $75.00, pay no attention to the stupid nonsensical composite # on the right, it makes no sense either.

jdl

[cj]

So you always go with the lowest?

[njcurveball]

If I can't teach you to think, I can't teach you anything. If you could think, you wouldn't need anybody to teach you much of anything.



So basically you market these ratings to people who cannot think? Since if people could, they wouldn't need you?

I guess we are different there, as I choose to learn and buy products from people who expect me to think. Many gamblers prefer selections and from what you have posted, $75 horses come EZ for you.

Simply get Mike Warren or Kelso Sturgeon or RPM to put some marketing together and you will be making millions in no time. :ThmbUp:

[jonnielu]

So you always go with the lowest?

No, I don't, but like every other mothers child, I bring my own perspective to the game. Just as you or anyone else would do. But, I have allowed the general consistency of the low rating to influence and re-shape my point of view because I am unable to argue with it, nor can I ignore its influence on every race of the card.

In 1987 I quit for 18 years, because I was such an over-disciplined tight-ass that I couldn't pull the trigger on $32 in wagers that would have returned $580. My rigidity was now getting in my way, and I had built all of those stiff rigid methods to compensate for what I didn't know.

They worked well for that purpose, it protected me from any wild-eyed tendencies and kept me in line, but it also kept me from gaining the knowledge and experience that I would need in order to ever positively state that I had learned something.

What I did know at the time was that no matter what I thought I knew about sizing up a race horse, every track knew the handle building formula of "equality builds handle". If I didn't have a reliable and accurate method of finding which of 3 relatively equal horses had a substantial edge, win betting would be an always iffy situation. Relatively equal in ability meant relative equal in past performance too.

The low rating does not win every race, but it is a consistency that influences every race, every distance, every class, every surface. And, it tends to be attached to horses that frequently win at all odds. Without regard to their past performances.

Having observed that, I supposed that I might be able to learn from the low rating. The low rating does not win every race, but it is the key to understanding what can win every race, and the real factors that every race turns on.

So, I can't teach anybody anything, but I can help you investigate the low rating and learn why it doesn't win every race, and how it does influence every race. It can teach you everything you want to know, if you wanted to involve yourself in that pursuit.

Which is what I proposed last year. But, my proposition was seen as a snake-oil / P.T. Barnum presentation. Maxspa started this thread because he knows there is something to Ability-X ratings, even Patrick admits it, although he is mad because I won't make the bets for him and run the money over to his bank and deposit it too.

It cost Patrick $299 to have a guy go to Keeneland on a learning expedition for him. He was fully reported to at the beginning of each racing day, and the days successes and failures were re-capped every night. He had a guy that got up at 6 in the morning and stayed up til 1 in the morning to put things like this in his face:

4th - 6fD KEE 4/20/08
# POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
327 5 97 30 424
328 10 96 2.5 424

308 9 95 6 403
322 7 94 15 416
304 6 93 10 397
147 1 0 12 147
137 2 0 15 137
156 3 0 6 156
295 4 0 5 295
131 8 0 15 131
238 11 0 4 238

5,7,9,10 [ 4,11 ]

4th - Five looks like a gift from heaven with that rating, and right in line with the fav. too. The high rated firsters are the question for messing up bank deposits here, #4 has a nice post here.

4th Race - Keeneland - Sunday, April 20th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Special Weight, $50,000, F (fillies) 3 yo, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 2:40 Start: 11 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Cloudy 56o
Pedigree: 5 - Horticulture, Chestnut Filly, 3, by Forest Wildcat - Substance by Diesis (GB)
Fractions: :222, :463, :59, 1:112 (:22.47, :46.62, :59.00, 1:11.50)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Horticulture Graham James 120 130.20 45.80 13.20
9 City Flag Leparoux Julien R. 120 14.80 6.40
11 Winning Turn Albarado Robby 120 4.80

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $3,725.20 5-8-5 (3 Correct) $35,416
$2 Exacta $1,376.00 5-9 $275,976
$2 Superfecta $24,594.20 5-9-11-10 $111,439
Trifecta $4,635.25 5-9-11 $200,514
Owner: Culture Vulture Stable
Trainer: James Bredin
Breeder: Juddmonte Farms, Inc. (KY)
Also Ran: 10 - Antepova, 1 - Crimson Hope, 4 - Chit Chat Cat, 6 - Get Going Bertie, 2 - Lacy's Luck, 7 - Trumpet Call, 8 - Caledon, 3 - Casero

I really like to get a good look at any high rated first timers if I am playing a win focus, but without that option for the Pk3's, I had bet my primary Ability-X stickouts here and #4 and #11 are looking pretty sharp in the paddock. I decide that since I am playing the win focus and trying to stick with it for the day, I should make the same exacta box as my Pk3 because #5 and the Fav. #10, are so much right on par with their ratings. The #4 scares me, so as the odds climb on #5, and remembering my recent exploits on these high odds horses, I decide to bet the #5 across. This seems to me that I am making good bets, and being well covered in the way that I am doing it and taking advantage of the value possibilities while I am at it. This is the basic reason that you stay with a group on the Pk3's, they are expensive to play this way, and you should only add them to your play when your bank can handle them, but they are a very profitable addition in the long run. It also helps to be able to bet exactas along with them for good cover, this also depends on your bank, add the exactas to W/P/S betting first.

***********************************
Somehow, even though this was laid out in front of him everyday, Patrick feels that he did not get his money's worth. This was the last Sunday of the spring meet, and both my mistakes and his mistakes had been reviewed everyday specifically for him in an attempt to put him in a position where he could learn without having to make the mistakes himself. Apparently, another of my stupid ideas.

But, Patrick likes superfectas, and previous to this weekend, he had griped that I was giving too many contenders, and not narrowing the race down enough for him, At that time I explained that I was trying to teach him how to narrow the race down, while I apologized to him for the fact that there were that many contenders in a race at Keeneland. When I asked if he had bet the superfectas in the only two races that weekend where I narrowed to 5 contenders, he said that no, he hadn't. One paid $13,300, and the other paid $13,400. The superfecta above, also went over his head, so my failure is complete in Patrick's case. I added the CD summer meeting to this KEE meeting too, so that Patrick might have every opportunity to learn from my numberable mistakes.

I thought that this format would give anybody the greatest opportunity to learn, I don't know that it has ever been done or tried by anyone in this sport before, but I thought that it would be a good way to to get the most to someone at the least cost, because I know how expensive some education in this sport can be.

Last year, I offered an outlandish guarantee to anyone that wanted to go to the entire GP meet with me in the same way, not because I think that it is a good way to rip people off, but because I believe that I can earn the money that way, much better then I can to pound out an Ebook that you may not understand because of the gap between our perspectives.

100 days of race by race action is a lot of time to bring the perspectives together. It was just an idea.

jdl

[ryesteve]

Five looks like a gift from heaven with that rating
Let's see if we can a straight answer to this.

In the previous example, you liked the $75 horse because his rating was so low... and in this example, you like the $130 horse because his rating was so high.

Correct?

[cj's dad]

Am I the only one here who thinks this guy has nothing else to do and is sitting somewhere laughing his ass off at the continuous response to this inane drivel.
He has spent several hours talking(typing) and has YET to say anything.:sleeping: :confused: :bang:

Let's see if we can a straight answer to this.

In the previous example, you liked the $75 horse because his rating was so low... and in this example, you like the $130 horse because his rating was so high.

Correct?

[jonnielu]

So basically you market these ratings to people who cannot think? Since if people could, they wouldn't need you?

I guess we are different there, as I choose to learn and buy products from people who expect me to think. Many gamblers prefer selections and from what you have posted, $75 horses come EZ for you.

Simply get Mike Warren or Kelso Sturgeon or RPM to put some marketing together and you will be making millions in no time. :ThmbUp:

It seems that the majority would rather not think, and the $75 horse is not very marketable because it is not believable. What ever it is, it needs to be believable.

People don't buy the thing, they buy what the thing will do for them. So they have to believe that what the thing claims to do, it can do.

In this case, if I said that my ratings will make you a winner, you would have to believe that you are or could be a winner in the first place. If you didn't believe that, I could never convince you otherwise because you know why you aren't a winner and I don't.

Instead, I say that my ratings will enable you to become a winner, and I am dismissed again because you believe that you are already as much a winner as possible. If there is any more, it will come to you at some point anyway.

I expect that it is only marketable on a scale that I can not approach.

jdl

[jonnielu]

Let's see if we can a straight answer to this.

In the previous example, you liked the $75 horse because his rating was so low... and in this example, you like the $130 horse because his rating was so high.

Correct?

That's exactly right Steve, and they are completely different numbers because they are completely different distances.

But, a low number only goes so far as a single factor. If you will take another look, you will also notice that in each case, each number is lower then the favorites rating, while similar. This expands on the meaning of the low number.

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Ability-X -Keeneland 4/17/2008 Thursday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+. 1st - 6fD #POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
361 5 100 5 461
394 10 96 12 490
340 9 96 10 436
344 8 95 5 439
377 1 92 15 469
346 2 91 4.5 437
419 3 0 8 419
202 4 0 6 202
137 6 0 20 137
126 7 0 15 126
Exacta Magic - 3,4,5,9
2nd -5.5fD # POST/ErlSpd / ML/Comp
411 4 102 3.5 513
366 1 101 8 467
334 2 99 3 433
363 6 98 4 461
331 5 98 10 429
358 8 96 5 454
357 7 92 8 449
316 3 81 6 397

Exacta Magic - 1,2,3,4
3rd - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
297 3 105 6 402
342 9 100 10 442
328 4 97 4 425
407 10 95 4.5 502
318 11 94 2.5 412
303 8 89 15 392
347 5 83 12 430
115 1 0 15 115
221 2 0 15 221
168 6 0 12 168
154 7 0 12 154
Exacta Magic - 2,3,4,11
4th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp 275 2 97 4 372
306 4 95 4.5 401
256 3 94 2.5 350
292 1 91 8 383
262 6 90 3 352
198 5 0 3 198

Exacta Magic - 2,3,5,6
5th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
474 7 104 12 578
340 2 97 4 437
305 3 96 3.5 401
314 9 95 6 409
315 8 92 30 407
307 5 92 4 399
246 1 90 3 336
251 4 0 6 251
126 6 0 20 126

Exacta Magic - 1,2,3,4,7
6th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
448 8 105 20 553
288 7 102 10 390
396 4 101 30 497
304 1 99 20 403
308 9 95 6 403
253 3 94 3 347
282 2 94 2 376
293 6 94 6 387
277 5 88 3.5 365

Exacta Magic - 1,4,7,8
7th -7fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
189 1A 94 2.5 283
220 5 94 15 314
150 10 93 12 243
162 6 93 5 255
143 7 91 8 234
230 2 91 12 321
153 8 91 5 244
148 4 90 4.5 238
186 9A 86 2.5 272
210 3 79 3 289

Exacta Magic - 1,10,6,7
Exacta Magic - 3,1A,4,8
8th - # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
9th - 7fD #POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
209 7 98 10 307
162 9 96 1.8 258
153 4 95 8 248
204 5 94 8 298
158 11 92 6 250
180 12 91 20 271
186 3 91 12 277
183 6 90 12 273
194 8 86 6 280
206 10 81 20 287
134 1 0 15 134
131 2 0 12 131

Exacta Magic - 7,9,4,11


A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.
jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)
Today I am going to figure the contenders with according to Exacta Magic, since I will be playing online today. I've also marked the contenders according to how they stickout in relation to the favorites. Exacta Magic pretty much falls in line, but since it operates from the win perspective, I'm wanting to see how well it does on pointing to DD, Pk3 and Pk4 contenders. And, how well it points out the value horse, since it appears that I did a little reaching yesterday.
The only thing that gets tricky sometimes with Exacta Magic, is making the call on middle distances, 6.5f, 7f, and 8f, as to whether the race will turn on speed or not. Usually, the ML choices and stickouts will point this out, but in todays 7th I figured the race both ways and came up with two different sets of contenders. And also the favored entry is one fast and one slow. Not a fast race anyway, but I think the speedier have an advantage here, but this is typical of the problems that 7f can hand you. When you have a lot of trouble making the call, the best option may be to pass, this never costs anything and you always gain some insight for next time.
I love the potential for a big one in the 6th.
I've got a busy day today, so I will likely bet the exacta boxes early and see where the chips fall. If you have time to add some analysis or spot something I've missed, you might find some good W/P/S, DD,Pk3, or Pk4 bets here. There might be some of these that you can cut to two also, but with the Pk's it is usually better to be more inclusive and play with a degree of looseness across the entire card, if this style can suit your makeup. A spot player may prefer to single out the solid choices to win, or single out the value within this scope.



Thanks, Jon

[pktruckdriver]

Ability-X -Keeneland 4/17/2008 Thursday - The horses are listed in order of early speed, and that is the rating on the right. The Ability-X rating is at left. First time starters or foreign shippers are listed in green and their ratings are notable at 150+. 1st - 6fD #POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
361 5 100 5 461
394 10 96 12 490
340 9 96 10 436
344 8 95 5 439
377 1 92 15 469
346 2 91 4.5 437
419 3 0 8 419
202 4 0 6 202
126 7 0 15 126
Exacta Magic - 3,4,5,9
2nd -5.5fD # POST/ErlSpd / ML/Comp
411 4 102 3.5 513
366 1 101 8 467
334 2 99 3 433
363 6 98 4 461
331 5 98 10 429
358 8 96 5 454
357 7 92 8 449
316 3 81 6 397

Exacta Magic - 1,2,3,4
3rd - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
297 3 105 6 402
342 9 100 10 442
328 4 97 4 425
318 11 94 2.5 412
303 8 89 15 392
347 5 83 12 430
115 1 0 15 115
221 2 0 15 221
168 6 0 12 168
154 7 0 12 154
Exacta Magic - 2,3,4,11
4th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp 306 4 95 4.5 401
256 3 94 2.5 350
292 1 91 8 383
262 6 90 3 352
198 5 0 3 198

Exacta Magic - 3,5,6
5th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
474 7 104 12 578
340 2 97 4 437
305 3 96 3.5 401
314 9 95 6 409
315 8 92 30 407
307 5 92 4 399
246 1 90 3 336
251 4 0 6 251
126 6 0 20 126

Exacta Magic - 1,2,3,4,7
6th - 6fD # POST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp
288 7 102 10 390
396 4 101 30 497
304 1 99 20 403
308 9 95 6 403
253 3 94 3 347
282 2 94 2 376
293 6 94 6 387
277 5 88 3.5 365

Exacta Magic - 1,4,7,8
7th -7fD # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
189 1A 94 2.5 283
220 5 94 15 314
150 9 93 12 243
162 6 93 5 255
143 7 91 8 234
230 2 91 12 321
153 8 91 5 244
148 4 90 4.5 238
186 1 86 2.5 272
210 3 79 3 289

Exacta Magic - 1,9,6,7
Exacta Magic - 3,1A,4,8
8th - # POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp














9th - 7fD #POST/ErlSpd/ML/Comp
209 7 98 10 307
162 9 96 1.8 258
153 4 95 8 248
204 5 94 8 298
158 11 92 6 250
180 12 91 20 271
186 3 91 12 277
183 6 90 12 273
194 8 86 6 280
206 10 81 20 287
134 1 0 15 134
131 2 0 12 131

Exacta Magic - 7,9,4,11


A very high percentage of these first time starters, win and hit the board for exotics, especially when fields are weak or chaotic. For races that include a coupled entry, the program #'s may be different from the post positions listed here.
jon@HorsePlayerU.com (jon@horseplayeru.com) http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm (http://horseplayeru.com/Abilty-X/ratingresults.htm)
1st Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Claiming, $21,000, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 1:10 Start: 9 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 8 - Free Space, Chestnut Filly, 3, by Aldebaran - Meguilty by Court Trial
Fractions: :223, :462, :59, 1:112 (:22.65, :46.53, :59.04, 1:11.58)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
8 Free Space Leparoux Julien R. 118 7.60 3.60 2.60
5 River Barrow Bridgmohan Shaun 125 4.80 3.40
2 Lauren's Smile Saez Gabriel 118 3.60

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Exacta $36.20 8-5 $113,328
$2 Superfecta $573.20 8-5-2-9 $33,836
Trifecta $33.15 8-5-2 $77,847
Owner: Keene Ridge Farm
Trainer: David M. Carroll
Breeder: Robert Raphaelson (KY)
Also Ran: 9 - Dr. Jenny, 1 - Joepaul'streasure, 4 - McDreamy, 3 - Holiday Honey, 7 - Invigorate, 10 - Kissesforcaroline
Scratched: Daddys Four Queens

Sometimes, when you have the habit I have, and don't pay a lot of attention to rules, you are reminded why there are some rules in the first place. There are reasons even for the loose ones. Going by the loose rules of exacta magic, I would have gone through the ratings of this race from top to bottom by early speed to wind up with the contenders by rating and early speed - 5,9,8,2, then I am supposed to look at any first timers to see if any of them could replace a weak contender, or if I would think it wise to add a fifth horse to the exacta, or if I should pass because of too many contenders.
The basic reason is that a horse with experience should generally be better then a firster, and a contender should be better then that. It makes great sense when the contenders cover the board, a great wake-up call as I miss my first exacta of the day.

2nd Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Claiming, $34,000, F & M (fillies and mares) 4 yo's & up, 5 1/2F, Dirt.Off Time: 1:41 Start: 8 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 1 - Sunshine State, Bay Mare, 5, by Zamindar - Kiwi Sunshine by Java Gold
Fractions: :222, :454, :58, 1:042 (:22.42, :45.94, :58.14, 1:04.53)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
1 Sunshine State Hernandez, Jr. Brian Joseph 118 37.40 13.20 8.60
8 No Llores Catita (CHI) Lanerie Corey J. 118 8.20 4.60
7 Snakey Sue Lezcano Jose 118 6.20

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Daily Double $175.60 8-1 $66,342
$2 Exacta $359.60 1-8 $142,266
$2 Superfecta $14,461.00 1-8-7-3 $44,919
Trifecta $976.90 1-8-7 $100,217
Owner: Lynch, Daniel A. and Scherer, Merrill R.
Trainer: Merrill R. Scherer
Breeder: Marablue Farm (FL)
Also Ran: 3 - Pimentinha, 4 - Time for Etbauer, 2 - Fan Time, 6 - Nightmare, 5 - Shiny Dancer

Hard to drop the #4 when you are speed blind, but a snap back to reality and consideration of the ratings would say that you have speed covered with the #1. The #2 is the next low rating and in, then the next level of early speed would direct you to the lower rating of #5. The lowest rating of the next level of speed is #8, and that is horse number four, I shouldn't have gotten to number 3, but that close to par rating tugged on my left eye, and pulled a few bucks out of my pocket. And this is why it is important to stay in tune with Exacta Magic, you can learn and survive with it in systematic mode. As you use it, you learn how to analyze the ratings better and better as you compare the results and see that they make sense. Here is a $359 exacta, and 4 sound contenders for Pk bets that you might be able to cut to two by early speed, which would be the appropriate consideration at 5.5f.
The next move for a fifth horse would be the next low rating at the next lower level of speed, #7. There is the $976 Trifecta. There is only one move left for a sixth horse, and you have already tossed the fastest horse for being too fast, the sixth would be the slowest horse in the race, if the rating is there, and it is at 316. And there is the $14,461 super. Exacta Magic is not taken seriously by handicappers, and neither are Ability-X ratings, they think that something simple can't have much power, and this is where they err.
There is enough power here to allow me to screw up these first two races with sloppy loose play and still survive the day with a profit. If I pay attention at all, the results and the ratings will tell me how to correct and where to correct very quickly. I won't suffer from any illusions about polytrack or biases, and be wondering who's on the juice. Two races finish and I can readily see, that it is me that needs to tighten up, and I need to tighten up my considerations according to how horses run and nothing else. At least while I try to correct myself, I may still be in business with some loose Pk3 bets. I'm up to one leg in a row at $37.40.

3rd Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Claiming, $21,000, F & M (fillies and mares) 3 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 2:11 Start: 10 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 3 - Hope Street, Dark Bay or Brown Filly, 3, by Street Cry (IRE) - Gaye's Express by Timeless Native
Fractions: :23, :462, :582, 1:11 (:23.05, :46.59, :58.58, 1:11.16)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Hope Street Desormeaux Kent J. 118 10.00 5.80 4.60
9 Crazy Thing Rojas Christian 125 17.60 9.60
2 Absolutly Wild Graham James 118 7.20

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $1,399.60 8-1-3 (3 Correct) $37,296
$2 Exacta $213.80 3-9 $196,796
$2 Superfecta $14,101.80 3-9-2-7 $84,261
Trifecta $543.75 3-9-2 $142,262
Owner: Mrs. A. M. Hanley
Trainer: Eddie Kenneally
Breeder: Laura McKinney & Darley (KY)
Also Ran: 7 - Ammo, 11 - Cleverdale, 4 - Tropical Update, 6 - Marisa's Magic, 8 - Instant News, 1 - Margaret Pride, 5 - Isabel's Approval
Scratched: Buckhead Baby

What was I thinking about this morning? I know that I'm just really trying to round up contenders for DD's and Pk3's, but it is like I am stuck in stickout mode. Exacta Magic would have me taking 3,9,4,11 to get this $213 exacta, plus be good on leg two of the PK3 with a $10.00 winner. I hope I snap out of my funk soon.

4th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance, $58,000, Open 4 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 2:41 Start: 5 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 5 - Rallying Cry, Dark Bay or Brown Colt, 4, by War Chant - Turning Wheel by Seeking the Gold
Fractions: :222, :452, :571, 1:093 (:22.41, :45.50, :57.38, 1:09.68)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
5 Rallying Cry Desormeaux Kent J. 118 6.60 4.00 3.00
1 John's Road Theriot Jamie 118 5.00 3.00
3 Chamberlain Bridge Graham James 118 2.60

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $1,525.00 1-3-5 (3 Correct) $20,703
$2 Exacta $31.20 5-1 $149,600
Trifecta $22.70 5-1-3 $78,322
Owner: Godolphin Racing LLC
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor
Breeder: Flaxman Holdings Ltd. (KY)
Also Ran: 4 - Parioli's Trick, 6 - Delta Storm
Scratched: Ease

It's a good thing that I am playing Pk3's, because I'm not getting anywhere with exactas until I get my head on right. I hope that this $1,525.00 will last awhile while I'm blowing $24.00 a pop on exacta lessons.

5th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Special Weight, $50,000, F & M (fillies and mares) 4 yo's & up, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 3:10 Start: 9 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 4 - Lomaki, Bay Filly, 4, by A.P. Indy - Debit Account by Mr. Prospector
Fractions: :224, :462, :58, 1:094 (:22.99, :46.47, :58.11, 1:09.81)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
4 Lomaki Desormeaux Kent J. 122 7.20 5.00 4.80
8 Proud Heiress Mena Miguel 122 21.00 10.00
1 Diverse Albarado Robby 122 3.00

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $228.00 3-2/5-4 (3 Correct) $57,567
$2 Pick 4 $1,711.10 1-3-2/5-4 (4 Correct) $82,732
$2 Exacta $270.60 4-8 $190,967
$2 Superfecta $6,148.40 4-8-1-2 $85,970
Trifecta $297.95 4-8-1 $148,008
Owner: Chiefswood Stable
Trainer: Eric Coatrieux
Breeder: Racehorse Management, LLC (KY)
Also Ran: 2 - Strikes of Thunder, 3 - Time Flies, 7 - Creole Maid, 5 - Fantasyafield, 9 - Elusive Melody, 6 - T'ville Gossip

Well finally, an exacta that I didn't screw up, I lost it fair and square, this $228 Pk3 will help offset this exacta debacle so far, but I'm wishing that I had bet the Pk4 too, it is right there.

6th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance, $54,000, Open 3 yo, 6F, Dirt.Off Time: 3:40 Start: 8 went. Good for all but 5. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 9 - Georgetown, Bay Colt, 3, by Storm Cat - McConnell Springs by Deputy Minister
Fractions: :224, :47, :584, 1:103 (:22.91, :47.03, :58.89, 1:10.72)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
9 Georgetown Theriot Jamie 123 10.40 5.00 3.20
2 Far East Gold Bridgmohan Shaun 123 4.40 3.00
5 Forest Prince Gomez Garrett K. 123 3.60

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $297.00 5-4-9 (3 Correct) $48,060
$2 Exacta $49.20 9-2 $195,391
$2 Superfecta $1,008.20 9-2-5-7 $80,585
Trifecta $51.75 9-2-5 $142,537
Owner: Overbrook Farm
Trainer: Dallas Stewart
Breeder: Overbrook Farm (KY)
Also Ran: 7 - Close to the Vest, 6 - American Hustler, 3 - Orangspangledgator, 1 - G Areyoukidding, 4 - Genuine Justice
Scratched: Mr. L. A.

Always re-run it after a scratch, if I had I may have picked up the #9 instead of #3. #9 is the next level of speed and there is a tie on composite rating with #1. It would still lose the exacta, but would have brought in another Pk3.


7th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Allowance, $54,000, F & M (fillies and mares) 4 yo's & up, 7F About, Dirt.Off Time: 4:09 Start: 9 went. Good for all but 3. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 1 - Aspiring, Dark Bay or Brown Filly, 4, by Seeking the Gold - Lassie's Legacy by Deputy Minister
Fractions: :24, :471, 1:111, 1:263 (:24.10, :47.31, 1:11.35, 1:26.61)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
1 Aspiring Gomez Garrett K. 118 6.40 6.20 3.80
1A Full of Ideas Lezcano Jose 118 6.40 6.20 3.80
9 Street Chant Correa Erasmo 118 7.00

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $283.60 4-9-1 (3 Correct) $48,342
$2 Exacta $79.80 1-9 $198,003
$2 Superfecta $1,804.00 1-9-3-8 $76,378
Trifecta $118.75 1-9-3 $146,613
Owner: Farish, William S. and Humphrey, Jr., G. Watts
Trainer: George R. Arnold, II
Breeder: W. S. Farish & Kilroy ThoroughbredPartnership (KY)
Also Ran: 3 - Just Hoping, 8 - Even Tempo, 4 - Imagistic, 2 - The Luckiest, 6 - River Rosie, 7 - Ella Bird
Scratched: Rocketinthegate

This one goes to the speedy, and I would have won an exacta, if I hadn't passed.

8th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Royal Chase for the Sport of Kings Hurdle S. (Grade 1), Stakes, $150,000, Open 4 yo's & up, 2 1/2M About, Turf.Off Time: 4:40 Start: 6 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Firm Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 3 - Sovereign Duty, Bay Gelding, 6, by Kingmambo - Duty Dance by Nijinsky II
Fractions: 4:58 (4:58.13)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
3 Sovereign Duty Hodsdon Danielle 142 7.20 3.40 2.40
7 Sweet Shani (NZ) Aizpuru Xavier 141 3.60 2.60
2 Best Attack Rafter Carl 146 3.00

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $167.80 9-1-3 (3 Correct) $22,003
$2 Exacta $18.00 3-7 $82,452
$2 Superfecta $105.60 3-7-2-5 $30,720
Trifecta $14.00 3-7-2 $69,081
Owner: Hudson River Farms
Trainer: Jonathan E. Sheppard
Breeder: William S. Farish Jr. (KY)
Also Ran: 5 - Orison, 1 - Swimming River, 4 - Feeling So Pretty
Scratched: Preemptive Strike


9th Race - Keeneland - Thursday, April 17th, 2008

Conditions: Maiden Special Weight, $50,000, Open 3 yo, 7F About, Dirt.Off Time: 5:10 Start: 10 went. Good for all. Won driving. Track: Fast Weather: Clear 68o
Pedigree: 9 - Hyrule, Chestnut Colt, 3, by Smart Strike - Scorching by Dynaformer
Fractions: :233, :472, 1:114, 1:271 (:23.70, :47.49, 1:11.87, 1:27.31)

# Horse Jockey Weight Win Place Show
9 Hyrule Desormeaux Kent J. 120 5.00 3.20 2.60
7 Star Player Leparoux Julien R. 120 13.00 7.40
11 Klassi Berti Albarado Robby 120 4.20

Wager Type Payoff Winning Numbers Pool
$2 Pick 3 $77.60 1-3-9 (3 Correct) $48,343
Pick 4 $164.95 9-1/5-3-3/9/10 (4 Correct) $126,428
$2 Pick 6 $92.20 2/5-4-9-1/5-3-3/9/10 (5 Correct) (Carryover: $6086) $10,034
$2 Daily Double $16.20 3-9 $45,314
$2 Exacta $70.60 9-7 $196,008
$2 Superfecta $1,489.80 9-7-11-8 $112,566
$1 S5 $2,347.80 9-7-11-8-2 $11,639
Trifecta $72.05 9-7-11 $167,726
Owner: Peter Vegso
Trainer: William I. Mott
Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable Inc (FL)
Also Ran: 8 - Starbank, 2 - Gun Room (GB), 5 - Tap Dancing, 1 - Bountyful Mine, 6 - Varvaros, 12 - Rockin Rod, 4 - Hollywood Pegasus
Scratched: Anewday, Baystreet Bully
I think I've got it now, I did it right and the exacta won. The Pk's kept me from digging myself into a hole while I got my head together, what could be better? And, I think this is probably the best way to go after some Pk bets over the weekend, I'm going to brush up on Exacta Magic a little on the drive to Lexington.


Thanks

[pktruckdriver]

Now I had to do this post in 3 part as it was too big, you see I kept every email Jon sent me when I was subscribed to his service, and tried to learn his system.

I could not get it, asked repeatedly to get one on one teaching , as I admit I may be a little slow, well lets ask the board of they cpuld figure this out after getting what I got each day, these as you see were from Keeneland spring meet,

I lost 2 bankroll's trying to play these numbers, but oh well that is racing, and no hard feelings here, but it did make me skepticsal after 2 bankrolls went away, and efforts to get better teaching, to help me win, went unanswered, kinda sad, okay, move on.


You see i would get the recap with audible's called by Jon thruout the day that made him a winner, while I still lost playing the morning numbers, plaes tell me if you guys on the board could figure this out, or is it just me being too stupid, no jokes , okay.


Patrick

[PaceAdvantage]

Patrick, your first and most egregious mistake was wagering even one penny on something you admit you did not understand. Why would you do that?

Whenever you take on something new, NO MATTER WHAT IT IS, why in the world would you wager good, hard earned money without a clue as to what and why?

Have you ever heard of just playing it out on paper first until you either get the hang of it, or conclude that it simply isn't for you?

Would have saved you a lot of money I bet.

[jonnielu]

Patrick, your first and most egregious mistake was wagering even one penny on something you admit you did not understand. Why would you do that?

Whenever you take on something new, NO MATTER WHAT IT IS, why in the world would you wager good, hard earned money without a clue as to what and why?

Have you ever heard of just playing it out on paper first until you either get the hang of it, or conclude that it simply isn't for you?

Would have saved you a lot of money I bet.

Which is the reason that I prefer to do it this way, I am aware of how different it is in perspective.

Keeneland 10/11/08

I believe that Ability-X ratings points out to the bettor at any level, that success is more likely by betting exotics in a more inclusive way then is taught by past performance handicapping. With a reasonable measure of ability, the player can see that modern racing is much more competitive, and that is a good thing. The largest area of opportunity is shown to be in wagering with several exotics in an inclusive way. As opposed to the more exclusive "one best horse" teaching of past performance handicapping.


From this point of view, even the beginner can readily see well beyond the ML as an accurate guide to wagering more broadly and effectively. The goals of the modern betting menu will be better fulfilled when players at all levels can see that broader play is in order.

Handle will grow when all bettors can see that success is more attainable today by wagering broadly as opposed the narrow focus of past strategies.

A basic understanding, and an inclusive strategy, would have done well today.

Even failing the 9th and 10th, any player would have to conclude that the cure for this would lie in learning the sharper analysis from the results. The ratings show an answer as opposed to a mystery.

The natural inclination would be to come back tomorrow to apply what has been learned.



jdl

[Tom]

Handle will grow when all bettors can see that success is more attainable today by wagering broadly as opposed the narrow focus of past strategies.

Huh? As more people win, more people will lose. You can't have everyone win.
The handle will grow as more people bet and lose. We have more favorites winning now that in the past, and lower payouts as a result. The game is essentially the same now as it ever was - the majority of players lose, a small percentage win. The methods they use and the identities of the winners varies, but that is about it. And it is not ever going to change much from that model.

[oddsmaven]

Am I the only one here who thinks this guy has nothing else to do and is sitting somewhere laughing his ass off at the continuous response to this inane drivel.
He has spent several hours talking(typing) and has YET to say anything.:sleeping: :confused: :bang:
No, you were hardly alone...he's quite the character...I loved when njcurveball asked him if two guys using his method would come up with the same picks and he says "anything is possible"...one may have hoped to hear that "they should" or that "they'd likely have several of the same selections"...and he chopped that post into a number of sections, answering each one with that inane drivel :liar: you referred to.

[jonnielu]

Huh? As more people win, more people will lose. You can't have everyone win.
The handle will grow as more people bet and lose. We have more favorites winning now that in the past, and lower payouts as a result. The game is essentially the same now as it ever was - the majority of players lose, a small percentage win. The methods they use and the identities of the winners varies, but that is about it. And it is not ever going to change much from that model.




Well, maybe things will change when play changes to the same extent that the model has. Today, you have 70's play on a 2000 wagering menu. Which, so far just seem to add up to more ways to lose as the number of ways to win stays the same.

I didn't say anything about everyone winning, I did say something about racetracks taking up the teaching of play.

Do you play the superfecta Tom?

jdl

[jonnielu]

No, you were hardly alone...he's quite the character...I loved when njcurveball asked him if two guys using his method would come up with the same picks and he says "anything is possible"...one may have hoped to hear that "they should" or that "they'd likely have several of the same selections"...and he chopped that post into a number of sections, answering each one with that inane drivel :liar: you referred to.



Apparently, New Yorkers prefer to only be told what they want to hear.

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Bossman


You are right, but if you noticed that the number's I posted had , what they Call Exacta Magic Numbers, and was told they were just like numbers that National Turf provides, and were playable in exacta's and pick 3's etc..

So I took a $120 bankroll 1st time and lost it, and the 2nd time was 100.00 so yes I lost to me a lot of money, but I learned and lost, never said I was the brighest thingy in the thing-a-ma-bob, now did I.

I played the numbers he suggested to play and lost, same thing Bob Selvin would suggest in his pick service, which has made me money in the past, thanks Bob.


So Let me have it Bossman, I am a fool sometimes, a little too trusting, oh well, can't help that, I want to believe in people, but get burned too often.


Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

Am I really too darn Gullible or what?


Or just plain stupid , as my friend here says as he reads this mess.


Was it ever possible that JON is on to something, or not a chance in Hades?


I would like to believe that he was and is onto something, but to me he could never teach it to me, may be he tried thru emails, which did not work for me, but where is someone else who used his service, why are they not speaking up, why is that, am I the only one who doled out a few bucks here, am I the only one, God knows how that looks, now don't it.


Lord Maxspa

I hope this answers you inquiry, does it?


Patrick

[Tom Barrister]

After wasting two hours of my time going through old archives on the website, and seeing middle-of-the-road numbers ending up as selections, I've come to the conclusion that the seler either "interprets" the numbers to fit the results (redboards) or has some mysterious way of interpreting them that he is either unable or unwilling to convey to the public.

At best, it's a proprietary thing that the buyer isn't going to learn (except, of course, if $299 is paid for the next seminar, and maybe not even then).

At worst, it's plain old shuck-and-jive, similar to the 'you didn't pick the right paceline" copuout that certain software sellers used for years.

My best guess is that it's redboarding, but that's just me.

Either way, I wouldn't recommend it, as it is now. Your mileage may vary.

[jonnielu]

After wasting two hours of my time going through old archives on the website, and seeing middle-of-the-road numbers ending up as selections, I've come to the conclusion that the seler either "interprets" the numbers to fit the results (redboards) or has some mysterious way of interpreting them that he is either unable or unwilling to convey to the public.

At best, it's a proprietary thing that the buyer isn't going to learn (except, of course, if $299 is paid for the next seminar, and maybe not even then).

At worst, it's plain old shuck-and-jive, similar to the 'you didn't pick the right paceline" copuout that certain software sellers used for years.

My best guess is that it's redboarding, but that's just me.

Either way, I wouldn't recommend it, as it is now. Your mileage may vary.

I wouldn't recommend it either, you are to well on your way to stunning and overwhelming success to take any detours with me.

jdl

[Tom]

Do you play the superfecta Tom?

jdl

No. Nor pick3, pick 4, pick 6, trifecta rarely, exacta frequently, win/place mostly. No interest in most multiple bets.

[pktruckdriver]

I didn't say anything about everyone winning, I did say something about racetracks taking up the teaching of play.




It seems that teaching is not something you do too well, as asked earlier, who else uses this system, and why are they not speaking up, oh I know why....

They do not want people to know it works, right?


I guess I was the only ididot on this board who fell for this..:blush: :(

Ok
Patrick

[cj's dad]

Isn't it interesting/strange/suspicious/ that JL does not even post his location on his public profile.

Maybe there are rules in his place of habitat:lol: where he cannot do that.

BTW- Pktruckdriver- please tell me you did not mail your check to a P.O. box #:bang:

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Bossman


Are you laughing at me now, you must be loving this.



BTW- Pktruckdriver- please tell me you did not mail your check to a P.O. box #:bang:



I deserve this, :lol: :lol:

patrick

[jonnielu]

It seems that teaching is not something you do too well, as asked earlier, who else uses this system, and why are they not speaking up, oh I know why....

They do not want people to know it works, right?


I guess I was the only ididot on this board who fell for this..:blush: :(

Ok
Patrick

I assume that they have their reasons Patrick, whatever they are, I figure it is their business. I never asked you for your life story either. Perhaps for some, this is one area of their life that is not archived on some government database.

Everybody in this business is fairly tight-lipped. I would suspect that the income tax has something to do with it. For myself, I am not very concerned with hiding anything from IRS, and I enjoy the fact that they know I have an income.

What took you so long to identify yourself as one that tried me out? Hell, you are only coming out of the closet because I said that I'm probably not going to GP specifically to make you a winner.

Why did you still think yesterday that I could make you a winner? Why would you have wanted to sign up again? A real snake-oil salesman would have already hit your card, I've got the number right here.

You are the only one that I ran my phone battery dead on 3 times, you are the only one that I drove to Corbin to spend the day with. And you are the only one that interupted me 40 times in 14 hours of trying. And, I'll bet that I am the only one that started over on what I was saying 41 times.

Maybe those are some of the reasons that you aren't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

I guess that I am at fault for not telling you in the first place, I can't make you a winner Patrick, and I can't even help you to become a winner until you are willing to take up your end.

But, I tried it, I put in what I had to put in.

There is another reason that you aren't hearing much of anything, that is because practically nobody has made it or learned anything in this business without paying the price. After you've paid the price, you don't really feel like handing it out to people.

jdl

[cj's dad]

Hey Bossman


Are you laughing at me now, you must be loving this.






I deserve this, :lol: :lol:

patrick

No- not laughing at you at all- just curious as to where you sent your $$$- I hate to see someone get scammed, IF in fact thats what happened. It does sound suspicious at best.

[pktruckdriver]

Cj's Dad


This was meant for Bossman, PA, not you.

What you said is funny, it really is, no offense is taken in any way what so ever.


Patrick

What Ego, my god did it crushed today....

[jonnielu]

No. Nor pick3, pick 4, pick 6, trifecta rarely, exacta frequently, win/place mostly. No interest in most multiple bets.

Well, what I mean is that the exotics exist mainly for an appeal to the new player that is attracted just by the gaming aspect. If racing could get one of those guys in the door to play P3's all weekend starting with $200 and ending with $206, you could grab some of the cash he's churning and everybody would be happy. Not everybody expects to win, so even the losers wouldn't be pissed if they managed to play all weekend.

And, they might come back next weekend to pay you back by trying to get some of your cash.

jdl

[Tom Barrister]

I wouldn't recommend it either, you are to well on your way to stunning and overwhelming success to take any detours with me.

jdl

You're targetting the wrong person. I've tried to be reasonably civil, but since you want to play dirty, so will I.

I went ahead and got your three Ebooks (no, I didn't buy them---I got them from somebody I know who did). As proof, here is a screen capture from the opening section of your Exacta Magic Ebook:

http://www.br52.com/ebook.jpg

I read all three books from beginning to end, including the supposed entire Keenleand meeting workout of your numbers, which was supposed to show how wonderful the ratings are. I can understand why people don't understand how to use your ratings---you make very little effort to explain how they're used. The reader is left to read between the lines and guess what to do.

The handicapping is 100% arbitrary. You do one thing in one race and an entirely different thing in a similar race (and of course, you'll say they aren't the same thing). You say one thing in one book and take a different approach in another book. Instead of using the numbers as-is, you HANDICAP with them. Numerous references are made to looking at the Form, your handicapping is very subjective---to the point of redboarding the winners. There is certainly no quantifiable methodology to it. In some races you do things one way, and in others, you do things the opposite way----and of course it always ends up with the winners, even after disqualifcations. Put bluntly: You're fitting the handicapping to the top four order of finish, and I'm 100% certain of that. Nobody can hit as many Pick-3s, Pick-4's, Trifectas, and Superfectas as you claim to, especially not at Keeneland----unless of course, they're redobarding them.

As for you personally, you're nothing new or interesting. We've had people like you on here many times in the past. They arrive, along with their various clones, friends, etc., get busted by the savvy readers here, and leave. They're easy to spot: every one of them cops an attitude like you've done. Every one of them flaunts how well they do and how stupid everybody else is. We've had plenty of hucksters trying to peddle their wortheless warez. Most fail miserably.

Anybody who reads this thread and buys or subscribes to your service or seminars for any reason besides amusement deserves to be parted with his/her money.

Feel free to have the last word here. Anything you say should be taken as meaningless and without substance.

[jonnielu]

You're targetting the wrong person, asshole. I've tried to be reasonably civil, but since you want to play dirty, so will I.


Feel free to have the last word here. Anything you say should be taken as meaningless and without substance.

I'm still standing here.

jdl

[cj's dad]

I'm still standing here.

jdl

Where is here? The masses want to know:lol:

[CincyHorseplayer]

Where is here? The masses want to know:lol:

I responded to several of your posts and it's become obvious that you are an untouchable quantity on here.It just makes me hate you that much more!!!!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...for your diligence with this thread.

I just read it from start to finish, and if that isn't Jonnielu's display case I hear snapping shut.... it should be. :ThmbDown:

Caveat Emptor

[cj's dad]

I responded to several of your posts and it's become obvious that you are an untouchable quantity on here.It just makes me hate you that much more!!!!

Maybe thats why my friends call me Elliot Ness:lol:

And remember hate is a form of love:D

[PaceAdvantage]

I responded to several of your posts and it's become obvious that you are an untouchable quantity on here.It just makes me hate you that much more!!!!Your posts were removed because of their overt sexual nature, which is against board policy. Address the issue at hand in an adult manner, or don't address it at all.

[Tom]

Actually, to be fair, I have looked at his ratings and gotten some words of instruction off-forum and I have to say what he has here is a logical method to use the Ability and Early speed ratings in conjunction. the key, I believe to you filter that through the visual inspection of the horses. I have handicapped some races before they were run and came up with a couple of winners and could see why others won that I didn't.

Different people use CJ numbers, HTR, and HSH differently, so it comes down to if this method fits your style, or if you are willing to change your style to fit it.

I dont think "snake oil" applies here, as I can see someone putting in the work and following instructions doing well with this. I posted, half in jest, that this was a hell of a way to market, alienating people, but that is John's call.

[jonnielu]

...for your diligence with this thread.

I just read it from start to finish, and if that isn't Jonnielu's display case I hear snapping shut.... it should be. :ThmbDown:

Caveat Emptor

That's an interesting post Hajck, it causes me to wonder. If my ratings are so obviously without value as an indication of a horses run today, why would anyone have an interest in closing my display case?

jdl

[jonnielu]

Actually, to be fair, I have looked at his ratings and gotten some words of instruction off-forum and I have to say what he has here is a logical method to use the Ability and Early speed ratings in conjunction. the key, I believe to you filter that through the visual inspection of the horses. I have handicapped some races before they were run and came up with a couple of winners and could see why others won that I didn't.

Different people use CJ numbers, HTR, and HSH differently, so it comes down to if this method fits your style, or if you are willing to change your style to fit it.

I dont think "snake oil" applies here, as I can see someone putting in the work and following instructions doing well with this. I posted, half in jest, that this was a hell of a way to market, alienating people, but that is John's call.

You surprise me Tom, thank you for your fairness. You touch on a point that those with unfairness in mind have not mentioned. I have said many times that study of the ratings has taught me more about the realities of horse racing then all of the handicapping books that I have read.

I am not unlike many here, I have read quite a few in my time.

Tom Barrister acquired 3 Ebooks that were likely sold along with 30 days of ratings for $4.95. I wouldn't think that to be as large a threat to the consumer as it may be to the racing information industry.

I am happy to hear that you have put some study into it, Tom. That is all that I am trying to motivate. My style has always alienated some. Of that group, those that remain alienated are only those that see me as a threatening competitor.

jdl

[john del riccio]

This thread is the definition of "bad publicity is better than no publicity at all".



John

[Bruddah]

I responded to several of your posts and it's become obvious that you are an untouchable quantity on here.It just makes me hate you that much more!!!!

Let's see? You have 88 posts and have posted a half dozen dumb remarks. Including "hating" someone for being well thought of by a cyber community. Old Daddy'O has made 10X that many posts and is respected. Yeah, you're right he is untouchable. Thanks for reminding us why we might "hate" you. What a dweeb! :D

[Hajck Hillstrom]

... why would anyone have an interest in closing my display case?

jdlMy question to you is why you wouldn't? I'm not dismissing the value of your numbers, just your ability to sell them.

I think they work fine for you, and you should continue to utilize them.

[cj]

Isn't the truck driver the first person here to admit he bought them?

[cj's dad]

Yes, and apparently the rig is still on the road.:D

Isn't the truck driver the first person here to admit he bought them?

[pktruckdriver]

Yes CJ


Except maybe Tom, and I made numerous attempts at obtaining the teaching neccessary to learn them, but never got it, that is why I did lousy with them.

Please note that was with having the ebooks too, I just could not figure them, out, guess my mental ability was not up to snuff....

I played twice with them when I was given what was called "Exacta Magic numbers", with the daily emails sent out each racing day, was told they were a no brainer way of playing, just box them and win, oh well, that did notwork either, on the days I tried it, notice I said the days I tried it, I only tried 2 days, and then never tried again, as I never got anywhere trying to get taught how to interpret them correctly.

As someone who bought and paid for this service, I can actually say that without someone to explain them to me, they did not work at all, big waste of money, Tom, who may be better mentally, than me, GOD WHAT A THOUGHT, but more in tune to the horses, they may have clicked something for him, but not me , and the one man who could teach me, refused to do so, so I say the numbers a worthless, at least to me, fair enough.


Even now with all these posts, not one attempt from Jon to help me better understand his numbers, absoluetly nothing, yet many times here, in the beginning I was holding back, waiting for his reponse to me, privately, but he ignored all attempts at helping me , then he even trashed me in this post, basically called me stupid, lazy, and unwilling to learn, not true in my opinion, but then not everyone is einstien, are they, so to me , he has the worst customer service ever.

Yes CJ, the Truckdriver fell victim to this guy, heck maybe your numbers would mean more to me than his, and be honest with you I do not need your numbers, I have found a program that I'm slowly progressing my way thru, and let me tell you the customer service and support their is NUMERO UNO, the tops, so I will be patient and do what it takes to learn it and one day be able to play using it, tillthen, I will wing it, and keep dreaming of the big hit one day.


Patrick

Yes my rig is still rolling, but up 4sale if interested, only 15k

[jonnielu]

My question to you is why you wouldn't? I'm not dismissing the value of your numbers, just your ability to sell them.

I think they work fine for you, and you should continue to utilize them.

A good question Hajck, from the beginning the idea that they could be sold was questionable. But, I'm an optimist, and I know what their most valuable feature is.

As I have stated many times, the ratings themselves can teach you more about horse racing then anything else. But, people take that as just something that I am saying, as such, it could never be actually true.

And so it is with anything that I might say, I'm the guy that is selling it. I have no credibility from the get go.

But, I agree with you, this game is deeply fractured, and all of the separation didn't happen overnight. Which is neither here nor there, but, it might tip us off that we aren't going to put it back together overnight. Who will pull it back together? The players will. If racing can become to them on purpose, what it was to them by accident in the 1930's.

The only place in town where the poorest man in town, can compete eye to eye with the richest man in town.

Maybe that could be brought about again, if the new/old player learned to play according to how the game actually works.

So, I offered the ratings too cheap for extended periods of time hoping that some would try them out anyway. And, learn enough from that to look a little deeper and learn some more. But, because they were too cheap in the first place, and the low rating doesn't win every race, apparently they were dismissed by most, quickly.

Some people that didn't continue with the ratings from GP went for a second go-round in July-August when I hooked them with a $4.95 30 day deal with a money back guarantee. After I hooked them with that, I turned around and sent them SAR, AP, and DMR. So that maybe they could see that the only differences in racing come from class level.

I got a couple of lifetime subscribers out of that campaign, trouble is, they think that I don't know what I've got, while they have figured out something. So I don't hear much from them, unless the ratings are late.

So yeah, I'm doing as well marketing this, as the inventor of Jello did marketing that.

But, now there is a dozen more people that know what its most valuable feature is, doesn't do me much good, because they would rather keep it to themselves.

That is because they now know that even when they mis-take the numbers, they are there nonetheless. They can be mis-taken as many times as any particular person can mis-take them. But, they will keep coming around until every particular person learns to not mis-take them.

Anyone that can develop their skill to the point that they no longer mis-take them at all, would no more about horse racing then anyone else in town.

Do I think that is possible? Yes I do.

Do I think it is probable? It depends on how big a bet anyone wants to put on themselves.

If everybody knows everything there is to know, won't they all be betting the same horse? No. It is still horseracing. But, on any given afternoon people will be equal. That is why we play the game.

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

If everybody knows everything there is to know, won't they all be betting the same horse? No. It is still horseracing. But, on any given afternoon people will be equal. That is why we play the game.

jdl



Somebody , Please Tell me , What did he say?



patrick

[LottaKash]

. But, I'm an optimist
l

* The Optimist is nostalgic about the future * ......:jump:

best,

[jonnielu]

Yes CJ


I will wing it, and keep dreaming of the big hit one day.


Patrick



Here is what your problem is Patrick, you are a wild eyed gambler, thinking that you can succeed by playing some logical method like a wild eyed gambler.

I got some free advise from my mentor last night, so I'm going to hand you some, even though you are not acknowledging the fact that I spent more time with you then anyone else. And, you are not acknowledging that I told you face to face, not to play a systematic method, short. I also told you that I make exacta picks pretty loose, but you insisted that you wanted mine.

Go through every re-cap you have, KEE and CD. 2 turn races, regardless of surface. Take the two on the top of the chart (highest early speed), and the two on the bottom of the chart, (lowest early speed).

How many supers does that give you? Not enough? Take the next one up and down and select one of those two according to the ratings, which means that you are looking for a higher rating on the bottom and a lower rating on the top, one of those gives you a 5 horse box. Does that give you enough supers to be profitable?

jdl

[LottaKash]

Here is what your problem is Patrick, you are a wild eyed gambler, thinking that you can succeed by playing some logical method like a wild eyed gambler.

I got some free advise from my mentor last night, so I'm going to hand you some, even though you are not acknowledging the fact that I spent more time with you then anyone else. And, you are not acknowledging that I told you face to face, not to play a systematic method, short. I also told you that I make exacta picks pretty loose, but you insisted that you wanted mine.

Go through every re-cap you have, KEE and CD. 2 turn races, regardless of surface. Take the two on the top of the chart (highest early speed), and the two on the bottom of the chart, (lowest early speed).

How many supers does that give you? Not enough? Take the next one up and down and select one of those two according to the ratings, which means that you are looking for a higher rating on the bottom and a lower rating on the top, one of those gives you a 5 horse box. Does that give you enough supers to be profitable?

jdl

Say What ???

best,

[jonnielu]

Say What ???



best,

Hey Lotta,

He should know what it is. Hey, next time I'm in Ocala, whatsay we hit the Bob Evans and the OTB?

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Hey Jon

Here is what your problem is Patrick, you are a wild eyed gambler, thinking that you can succeed by playing some logical method like a wild eyed gambler.

You say that you know my problem, well how come you can't teach me anything about this fabulous sysytem of yours. Now you suggest I box 5-6 in a superfecta, me who can't rub 2 sticks together will now play 720.00 $1.00 superfecta boexes, oh yeah that will work great Jon.

How many supers does that give you? Not enough? Take the next one up and down and select one of those two according to the ratings, which means that you are looking for a higher rating on the bottom and a lower rating on the top, one of those gives you a 5 horse box. Does that give you enough supers to be profitable?


Now even Lottakash has trouble with what you are saying , I think, I know I do, that may be why I never got anything , I do not speak confuzed, case in point....
And, you are not acknowledging that I told you face to face, not to play a systematic method, short.



Man this has got to stop, and I think this is it for me on this subject, too bad they, Jon, do not have a money back guarantee, oh well I lose again.


Patrick

[LottaKash]

Hey Lotta,

He should know what it is. Hey, next time I'm in Ocala, whatsay we hit the Bob Evans and the OTB?

jdl


johnnielu, yes I do know what,,,Your numbers are very dynamic, enigmatic, and very proprietary....But, that is what it takes to beat this game........I believe that you learn more about them as each raceday passes...

I have witnessed people who have mastered this game... I knew these people, and for a time we were race-mates, and what they did, has much to do as what Jonnielu is doing, drilling down into the depths of the numbers and running lines, that are there for all to see.....For one to succeed in this game, long term that is, you must be original and insightful, you know "The Truth", so to speak...Sort of like a thesis that must be written in order to get that advanced sheepskin... It must be done...

Jonnielu, I do belive you have done your homework, it just may not be for "Everyman"......

As for Patrick, he is a really nice guy and I call him Friend, but Patrick (with all due respect), I believe this may not be your cup of tea.....Jonnielu, may have bopped the gopher right, as you are a wee bit rambunctious at times, and action is more important than patience, refinement and finesse at this point in your time....

Well, just some thoughts on this COOL thread !

best,

[cj]

Yes CJ


Except maybe Tom, and I made numerous attempts at obtaining the teaching neccessary to learn them, but never got it, that is why I did lousy with them. ...


Patrick,

I wasn't trying to give you a hard time. I'm just surprised that after hundreds of posts by Johnnie, all of which are basically self promotion, not a single other person I remember has posted that they use them. It seems odd, that is all.

[turfnsport]

Jon,

You would come across as not as much of a douchebag if you offered the guy a refund.

Ah, maybe not.

[jonnielu]

Jon,

You would come across as not as much of a douchebag if you offered the guy a refund.

Ah, maybe not.

That would depend on your perception. There is one thing to consider when it comes to your perception.

If someone is willing to change how they come across in order to appeal to your perception. They might be more interested in decieving you then they are in honestly engaging and trading with you.

If they are willing to do that, you will never come to know them by engaging and trading with them because there was not honesty in the initial engagement.

Usually nothing of value can be produced when people engage without the possibility of coming to know each other.

What Patrick bought ended on July 6th. But, anyone can see that it is he who dis-engaged, not me. If Patrick could learn to follow his heart, he would find that he can get well beyond his money's worth, because I will continue to earn it as long as he can stay engaged.

He never had to bet a dime, all he had to do was pay attention to and take note of the constant re-curring consistencies that continue to come up, until the day arrived that he could look at that stupid chart and have a rating catch his eye to the point that he realized, that horse is going to win this race.

Then he could observe it 10/20/30/40 or however many times it takes to develop the skill of recognition to the point that he could reach into that big bag of money that he has from focusing on what he does know how to do, and pulling out a $20 bill to test his newly developed skill. He could take that test over and over until he passes it, and he may pass it the very first time.

And he knows this, he can dis-engage all he wants in the meantime, but I'll still earn whatever he sends me by sending him ratings and pointing him in the right direction, until he arrives. Tom Barrister knows that too.

Maxspa has to wonder if he hadn't dis-engaged at some point during GP, would he have rightously pounded Commentator at the Spa. Were there others there that he could have "seen"?

Tom Barrister can say what he wants about red-boarding and back fitting, but the numbers have always been there, for anybody that is willing to engage.

jdl

[TrifectaMike]

Jon, I'm not familiar with your ratings. After reading your responses, I conclude that you use your ratings to arrive at a methodolgy of similarity based on real-time race results. And that is the art in the use of your ratings.

I might be wrong, but that is my conclusion.

Mike

[turfnsport]

That would depend on your perception. There is one thing to consider when it comes to your perception.

jdl

My perception after reading this thread is you are a scandicapper of the worst kind.

The only thing that would change my perception is if you gave the guy a refund.

[timtam]

I had a trial subscription to his sheets and one time the winner was on top

the next time it was the last horse selected. I read the instructions and

many times I was totally confused on the surface and type of race on what

I was actually looking for to determine a wager. I just can't imagine

this working when the winners are all over the page. Same races one time

the winner was on top the next time on the bottom. He says I have to know

what to look for but I say I can redboard all day long with any method of

picking winners. If I had to rate Jonnileu on one to ten he'd get a 3.

[jonnielu]

My perception after reading this thread is you are a scandicapper of the worst kind.

The only thing that would change my perception is if you gave the guy a refund.

Sorry, but Patrick hired me to make him a winner. The time to give him his money back was within one minute of the first one hour phone call.

I decided to take up the chore instead, and now I can't break off until the job is done. Patrick can do whatever he wants, but if he chooses to go on a 5 year or 25 year tour of racing information instead of simply reviewing and studying that which he already has. Whenever, and wherever he is when he finally arrives, he will find me there waiting for him to catch up.

I know that, he will learn it.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I had a trial subscription to his sheets and one time the winner was on top

the next time it was the last horse selected. I read the instructions and

many times I was totally confused on the surface and type of race on what

I was actually looking for to determine a wager. I just can't imagine

this working when the winners are all over the page. Same races one time

the winner was on top the next time on the bottom. He says I have to know

what to look for but I say I can redboard all day long with any method of

picking winners. If I had to rate Jonnileu on one to ten he'd get a 3.

What month was that, TimTam?

[turfnsport]

Sorry, but Patrick hired me to make him a winner. The time to give him his money back was within one minute of the first one hour phone call.

jdl

That is the response I was expecting.

[Tom]

That is the response I was expecting.

You are a true ************.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=51594

[bigchump]

Now you suggest I box 5-6 in a superfecta, me who can't rub 2 sticks together will now play 720.00 $1.00 superfecta boexes, oh yeah that will work great Jon.
I would never pay $720 for a bet like that, but I could be wrong again.

[pktruckdriver]

CORRECTION IN PROGRESS



Originally Posted by pktruckdriver
Now you suggest I box 5-6 in a superfecta, me who can't rub 2 sticks together will now play 720.00 $1.00 superfecta boexes, oh yeah that will work great Jon.







I would never pay $720 for a bet like that, but I could be wrong again.





I must correct myself as a $1.00 super/box of 6 horses is $360.00, not $720.


Now , with my correction done, this post too should die....


patrick

[jonnielu]

CORRECTION IN PROGRESS











I must correct myself as a $1.00 super/box of 6 horses is $360.00, not $720.


Now , with my correction done, this post too should die....



patrick

No Patrick, I said .10 cent super, X 4 is $2.40, X 5 would be $12.00.

And I suggested that you go through every day that you have and look for a likely four horse combo, it would look like this:

5th - 6fD CD - 11/05/08
#/PST/ErlSpd /ML/Comp

325 11 101 12 426
374 10 96 12 470
282 4 94 3 376
331 2 94 30 425
301 1 94 6 395
330 8 93 4 423
340 6 92 30 432
314 12 91 15 405
292 9 90 5 382
278 3 90 10 368
275 5 90 5 365
349 7 85 30 434
3,5,10,11
$0.10 Superfecta 3-5-10-11 $944.08

You want a logical method that you can play in a wild-eyed gambler mode that has a chance of winning with any type of consistency? Here it is Patrick.

I suggested that you look through the two turn races that you have because you will likely see this at distance more then sprints. But, the same consistencies operate at all distances, and on all surfaces.

The simple logic that we will apply is that the race will always be contested between the fast (last), and the slow (last). The favorite is always the horse to beat, and the ability of the favorite is the ability benchmark for analysis of this race. Not that it really takes any.

You take the #3 and the #5 because they are lower in rating then the fav. and they are slow (last). This all the reason that you need to toss the #7 and the favorite. (you do want a big super right?)

You take the #11 because it is par and very fast (last). You take the #10 because he is high in rating, and you toss the fav. again because of this. Because this tells you that the #10 will be running in the stretch while the rating of the fav tells you that it will not (it's a "run" rating, right).

That is the easy part, that usually comes somewhere after the hard part.

The hard part, is the part that you still haven't done. Go through every day that you have Patrick. Find every race that has this situation. See how many of them covered the super so that you know this isn't a once a year circumstance.

Then start looking for this situation on paper for the next month or year, or whatever it takes until you can recognize this situation more times then you miss it. (careful, while you do this, you will learn what makes it go)

Then, trot your big butt up to the window and push your $2.40cents in. When you win this super 5 times out of 10, then move to $1.00.

jdl

[Donnie]

With all due respect, Jon, in the above example, why did you throw out the #7? Doesn't that horse qualify as being on the bottom? I see your 4 horses as 11,10,5,7.

[sally]

With all due respect, Jon, in the above example, why did you throw out the #7? Doesn't that horse qualify as being on the bottom? I see your 4 horses as 11,10,5,7.

I think the 349 figure is higher than the 282 for the favorite...

[Donnie]

thanks Sally. So the first number is the Ability number? And he is taking the 2 top horses if they are above the Fav in that category and the two lowest in that same category.....correct? It doesn't matter if they are physically at the top of the list or the bottom of the list then.

[sally]

I guess so...

[Pace Cap'n]

The simple logic that we will apply is that the race will always be contested between the fast (last), and the slow (last). The favorite is always the horse to beat, and the ability of the favorite is the ability benchmark for analysis of this race. Not that it really takes any.

You take the #3 and the #5 because they are lower in rating then the fav. and they are slow (last). This all the reason that you need to toss the #7 and the favorite.
You take the #11 because it is par and very fast (last). You take the #10 because he is high in rating, and you toss the fav. again because of this. Because this tells you that the #10 will be running in the stretch while the rating of the fav tells you that it will not (it's a "run" rating, right).

That is the easy part...
jdl

Now, how, I ask you, could it be any more clear than that?

You take some fast horses, and some slow horses, and presto, there's the super. Oh, and be sure to toss the favorite. In fact, you need to toss the fav twice.

See, it's becoming more clear already.

[Charlie D]

The simple logic that we will apply is that the race will always be contested between the fast (last), and the slow (last).


Can you explain this simple logic to a thick Englishman please??

[cj's dad]

This has to get the award for the most inane, insane, illogical, inept, incongruous, illusionary, inept, irrational, post of this or any other year; and yet, like the Energizer bunny, it keeps going and going and........:eek:


damn- I think I just helped to prolong it:bang:

[LottaKash]

This has to get the award for the most inane, insane, illogical, inept, incongruous, illusionary, inept, irrational, post of this or any other year; and yet, like the Energizer bunny, it keeps going and going and........:eek:


damn- I think I just helped to prolong it:bang:


Yes, you have prolonged it....:jump:

Hey CJD, at least it's about Hoss-Racin' ....:jump:

best,

[Zaf]

:bang: :bang: :bang: :bang: :bang:

[njcurveball]

$0.10 Superfecta 3-5-10-11 $944.08


When you win this super 5 times out of 10, then move to $1.00.

jdl


Simple question, what is your record in races where the Super pays more than $900 for a dime?

Have you moved on to a $2 bet, if so congrats! You just made over $18,000 or probably more in one race than your "business" will make in the next 5 years.

One more simple question, if you can take $18,000 out of a race 5 times out of 10, what is the benefit of selling ratings to people who would only split the pot with you and cost you much more money than you make for selling the information?

[Charlie D]

what is the benefit of selling ratings to people who would only split the pot with you and cost you much more money than you make for selling the information?

Did anyone ask Beyer, Bull, CJ etc similar???

[cj's dad]

Yes, you have prolonged it....:jump:

Hey CJD, at least it's about Hoss-Racin' ....:jump:

best,

LK- how is this thread about h'racin?? All that has gone on here is one guy defending his service ad infinitum and no-one but I mean no-one seems to understand what the hell he's talkin' about. He lost me about post #35 or so. Maybe his system works,maybe not, but his explanation leaves much to be desired. Poor pktruckdriver paid for the service and he seems more confused than a blind man in the fun house.

[Charlie D]

Maybe we just can't see the wood for the trees CJD

[Charlie D]

Maybe it's can't see the trees for the forest

Jeez i'm totally :confused:


Maybe horse racing is rocket science

[LottaKash]

Maybe it's can't see the trees for the forest

Jeez i'm totally :confused:


Maybe horse racing is rocket science


Or the Kleenex for the Sneeze.........achoooooo!!!

I think jonnielu has it, but it remains a bit too abstract for him to be able to explain it as well as he might like to........

Still, this thread is a hoot, and a nice break from more serious things.........

best,

[Hajck Hillstrom]

One more simple question, if you can take $18,000 out of a race 5 times out of 10, what is the benefit of selling ratings to people who would only split the pot with you and cost you much more money than you make for selling the information?The $64 question....

Obviously, Jonnielu is ALL about the education process. :rolleyes:

[Tom]

I dunno, but I am a bit curious about the process.

[pktruckdriver]

Okay here it is , anyone who wants a weeks worth of old numbers that I bought and paid for, that will also come with his re-caps, after the races ran each day, feel free to IM me and I will be happy to send them to you. Who know maybe you can see wht he is trying to teach me, that these things work, or maybe you can see his correcting them so that they win, from the morning number to the after the races numbers, and then you see his commentary as to why he changed them to winning numbers, and of course, I am supposed to be able to know when to change them to make me a winner, any idiot could do it, right?


Funny how now he is even REBOARDING, what he told me to try to do, as pertaining to dime super's, no mention ever was about dime super's, it was always dollar boxing, of 4,5,or even 6 horse's, way too much for me, sorry.


Now I do believe he mentioned somewhere in this post, about going to Saratoga, did anyone see him at Saratoga this summer, I know I could not make it due to my finaces not being good enough to vacation this year. Yet I believe he said that he was going to be there to teach me how to learn these number's, and yet every where he claims to be , I have tried to meet up with him to learn, i have been ignored, emails unanswered, etc.. But here on the board well he taught me this and that, and how could I not see this and that, it is as obvious and night and day, well I need not go any further, as the smartest minds on this board have no idea how these numbers work either, so even in my diesel fumes damaged mind, as someone in a previous post stated, and it may be true, I still have the abiltiy to learn, but normally it takes one on one, they call it tutoring, not a bad way to learn either, for me it works, and most other people too.

For the refund issue , I did not make to big a deal about that, was just curious since I obviously cannot learn them, then maybe he would consider it, but, it is not neccessary, really it was over the summer, when this happened and it to me it was a experience to remember, that is for sure.

You know it would really be something if these numbers really did work somehow, and it was me that just could not get them, and then wham I did get them, tell me this ,would you want to share them with everyone, not me, no way, well I would with a few people , the ones who were always there for you, friends and family type, but not the massess, nope, but if we knew they did not work, then sell them, why not? Just My opinion...


Good luck everyone
Remeber if you are interested in some fun reading let me know, Okay
Patrick

[jonnielu]

With all due respect, Jon, in the above example, why did you throw out the #7? Doesn't that horse qualify as being on the bottom? I see your 4 horses as 11,10,5,7.

That's an excellent question Donnie, and I'll try to address the next several posts with this one, at least down to Cj's dad, who is one of my favorites.

The number 7 is undoubtedly on the bottom, and the favorite (the benchmark) is only third from the top with a rating much better then those two above it.

I'll interject at this point, that based on that initial general snapshot, the wild-eyed gambler that wants for a small degree of logic in his play can play this 6 horse group without any more thinking, if that were the style, or the extent of knowledge.

Neither of those factors would operate in any way to prevent such a player from questioning the results and learning more from them.

So, a guy like Patrick could say, "I don't want to know, I just want to play and win." So, there is a seat for his big butt at the racetrack.

For those that want to occupy the seat of precision play, that is fine too, because there is a seat for each different perspective that can be brought to the racetrack. What should be understood is that there is a degree of win/lose for all perspectives, and there may be no single perspective that wins more then it loses under all circumstances.

So if there is the desire to pursue the glory that can only come from the ultimate victory of the 4 horse superfecta box, we would put on the precise spectacles, and work from that initial general snapshot.

This is assuming that we have gained enough knowledge and experience from playing with the 6 horse scenario and are properly prepared to apply what has been learned from doing so.

We need to be careful about flipping the #7, because it displays the same "mark of the stretch-runner" that is shown by #10. And, that is the reason that we are keeping #10, so if we don't do it quite carefully Tom Barrister may start blowing his whistle and we're going to have the ticket-construction cops all over us. (bad enough that we're going to box a super in the first place)

When we consider the ratings for the #3, and #5 along with the fact that they are also slow (last), and that according to their ratings (ability) we expect them to compete well with the favorite and the #9 (based on ability), we have to suppose that #7 may well have a difficult time getting its noodle into this soup, considering its ability, even if he is running in the stretch.

Its early speed is 5 points lower then #3,#5, and #9 all of which are at the bottom threshold of this particular 6f race. That means that #7 is likely coming out of a 2-turn distance. Which may be a great place to stash a fine 6f run, but it also means that the rating for #7 should probably be interpretted at face value (because it is 349), remembering that it is accurate.

Which means that we can likely safely take #7's run (last) as a tiring effort as opposed to one were it was running in the stretch, and again, it could be tossed now. Or, we can look for more supporting evidence by comparing the #7 (slowest last), to the #11 (fastest last). #11 went hell for leather (last) and came up with a par (320/97) run at 325/101.

Where we might rightly expect that #11 can't duplicate that effort today, we can expect that if it didn't win (last), that duplication will be attempted. With the Fav well inside, #11 has no choice but to look to the giddyup. This would at least figure to leave #7 still struggling to get a noodle in.

If this is not enough to make you feel good about tossing the #7 yet, now we can consult the PP's without looking at them by recognizing and considering the ML (the most consistent factor in the history of pari-mutuel wagering) for #7, who displays a 30-1 ML. This strongly suggests to us, that many a great handicapper sees major deficiencies in the PP's for #7, and backs up all that we have surmized by comparing actual abilities.

We can now open the PP's (if we feel that to be prudent) and verify this to our satisfaction. Then close them without any consultation as to any other contender today.

Now, the attention goes back to the fav (ability benchmark), #4 because it can be quite risky to dismiss a fav. from a superfecta shot and should only be done under two circumstances.

1. You are intentionally taking a wild-eyed superfecta shot knowing the risk and fully aware of the potential for failure, because you are purposely seeking the higher payoff.

2. You have dismissed the fav. through application of superior analytical skills that you desire to further hone and polish, by putting what you have learned so far, on the line. Knowing that once you have mastered this analysis, the move from dimes to dollars will be easy.

For any that want to take up the challenge, just to know that they can come off the stool to answer the bell for the 15th round.

The #4, at 3-1 ML, is not a strong favorite in the light of PP handicapping criteria. The #4 will be challenged today by at least 4 horses that are within range of its level of ability, still the favorite is always the favorite. Considering that, can lead us to consider why the favorite is the favorite.

Usually, the favorite is the favorite because the favorite dislayed its max ability in the last race. Speed, class, finish position... it is all positive. Great, now for today, we have a sense of what the limits are for #4, and by comparing the abilities can show us that winning this race, may well be beyond the limits of the ability of #4.

The rating for #4 is good, the rating for #3,#5, and #11 are better, #11 because if you brought #4 up in early speed even to 99, the rating would go to 382. That is not to say that #11 will mop the floor with #4, but it is likely that #11 will influence this race to a much higher degree then will the #4.

As we bear in mind all the true consistencies of horse racing we consider the one that is seldom brought to bear on an analysis when we consider that we know one thing that will happen in every race on today's card.

Some will go, others will chase.

Which is the most likely goer? Considering the abilities displayed if the goal is to apply that ability to winning this race? #11 (fastest)

Which is the most likely to succeed in chase? #5 (lowest rating, slow last)

Assuming that this race is at a class level that we could call "everyday" which horses can we figure to have been likely "prepped" by the last for a max effort to win today? #5, and #3, possibly #11, and #10. Even if #10, and #11 are not specifically pointed at this race, they will try to win it with what they have.

For #5, and #3, their last says that they belong here, and the abilities and post positions would fairly dictate an even run for the wire. For the #10, the ability and last says that the post position demands that it goes with the #11 in an attempt to grind it down. #1, #4, #9, and #12 seem to have abilities that suggest they will not be able to get a noodle in this soup.

3 Jilluke Mena Miguel 120 16.20 8.00 4.80
5 Twin Talk Troilo William D. 120 9.00 5.60
10 Peace and Joy Ouzts Perry Wayne 120 13.60

It may be that I don't know how to well explain this to each and every individual in a way that they can understand it, this is yet another attempt, and that may be because it is wrapped around my own perspective, which may be far removed from yours.

I firmly believe that anyone can learn within their own perspective because the numbers are consistently there. The low rating doesn't win every race, but it won this one. Regardless of whether or not I can tell you why and how, in 5 minutes or 5 days, anyone can answer those questions as fast as they can be answered by comparing the ratings to the results charts and asking, how, and why?

I know my perspective best, I can only guess at yours. I can not say that mine is better then yours, but I will say that you will either find support for yours in the ratings, or the ratings will change your perspective as they have changed mine. Simply because the numbers are always there.

jdl

[jonnielu]

LK- how is this thread about h'racin?? All that has gone on here is one guy defending his service ad infinitum and no-one but I mean no-one seems to understand what the hell he's talkin' about. He lost me about post #35 or so. Maybe his system works,maybe not, but his explanation leaves much to be desired. Poor pktruckdriver paid for the service and he seems more confused than a blind man in the fun house.

That may just be his natural state.

jdl

[Tom Barrister]

I dunno, but I am a bit curious about the process.

Since nobody seems to be able to get a straight answer out of Mr. Luman (for whatever reason: inability, egocentricity, unwillingness, etc.) as to how the ratings work, I've taken it upon my self to try to read between the lines. The following is my opinion of how things are supposed to work.

I tossed out the composite rating, since it makes no sense to me (it adds together a "smaller is better" rating and a "larger is better" rating) and since it doesn't appear on all reports. That left the Ability-X rating on the left (smaller is better, or more accurately, smaller means the horse "ran easier") and the Early Speed rating in the middle (the rating scaled to about 100).

I reread the three books. The Pick-3 book contains the races for 16 days of the 2008 Spring Keeneland met and occasionally explains the rationale, such as it is, behind the selections.

The general premise is that the morning line favorite is the key to the race, and that every horse is compared to that one. As near as I can tell, the idea is that the other horses need to adapt to what the morning line favorite is supposed to do, and contender selection is based in part on how well each horse can so adapt. Horses are ranked according to early speed, and the contender selection process is based on where the contenders are supposed to be coming from, based on their Early Speed ranking. Supposedly, early speed is more important in shorter races and less important in longer ones (the one thing that the author got right), and contender selection appears to be based, in part, upon that.

From there, it becomes arbitrary. In some races, the horses closest to the Morning Line favorite are chosen. In others, two horses from near the top and two from near the bottom are chosen. This happens in races of all distances. At times, some horses are close to the favorite and others are somewhere at the extremes. The morning line favorite is almost always one of the four horses included. The only times that the morning line favorite is not included seem to be the instances in which it didn't finish in the top four. It still appears that the selections are tailored to the results, and when two longshots which more or less fit the methodology are in the top four finishers, the other two horses somehow get magically included, resulting in several four-figure superfecta "winners". There seem to be about twenty different patterns as to where in the Early Speed rankings the "contenders" are selected from, and the pattern that's chosen seems to be based on the results of the race.

That's my opnion, and yours may vary.

[LottaKash]

Jonnielu, that sure was a mouthful, and again with all due respect, I do believe that your ratings are quite valid and valuable to you, but to be honest with you, you lost me earlyon in your explanation of things....I believe that there is much un-explained subjectivity attached to your numbers and that is where I come up short.....

And secondly, I don't think that hoss racin' is as complicated as all that, but hey that is me........Class/Speed, and Form/Soundness = Trainer's Intentions on Raceday, and this pretty much does it for me....Of course there are numerous little supporting variables too, but I keep it pretty simple and it works wonders for me.....

best,

[Tom]

What I did was look at ES, Ability and post. I did not get to the part of using the favorite, but I looked in terms of each being positive, negative, or neutral for each horse, taking into account the color coding of the ability ratings.
I might have found a horse with great ES, good post, horrible ability next to fair ES, ok post, and great ability. It was mental juggling act, which I enjoy, and somewhat do witht ehv arious HTR ratings p- bad K, great pace, lone speed, top workout...hmmmm. Enough to take to K=6? Puzzles, baby, gotta love them. Plus I did get some guidence from John.

[jonnielu]

Okay here it is , anyone who wants a weeks worth of old numbers that I bought and paid for, that will also come with his re-caps, after the races ran each day, feel free to IM me and I will be happy to send them to you. Who know maybe you can see wht he is trying to teach me, that these things work, or maybe you can see his correcting them so that they win, from the morning number to the after the races numbers, and then you see his commentary as to why he changed them to winning numbers, and of course, I am supposed to be able to know when to change them to make me a winner, any idiot could do it, right?


Funny how now he is even REBOARDING, what he told me to try to do, as pertaining to dime super's, no mention ever was about dime super's, it was always dollar boxing, of 4,5,or even 6 horse's, way too much for me, sorry.


Now I do believe he mentioned somewhere in this post, about going to Saratoga, did anyone see him at Saratoga this summer, I know I could not make it due to my finaces not being good enough to vacation this year. Yet I believe he said that he was going to be there to teach me how to learn these number's, and yet every where he claims to be , I have tried to meet up with him to learn, i have been ignored, emails unanswered, etc.. But here on the board well he taught me this and that, and how could I not see this and that, it is as obvious and night and day, well I need not go any further, as the smartest minds on this board have no idea how these numbers work either, so even in my diesel fumes damaged mind, as someone in a previous post stated, and it may be true, I still have the abiltiy to learn, but normally it takes one on one, they call it tutoring, not a bad way to learn either, for me it works, and most other people too.

For the refund issue , I did not make to big a deal about that, was just curious since I obviously cannot learn them, then maybe he would consider it, but, it is not neccessary, really it was over the summer, when this happened and it to me it was a experience to remember, that is for sure.

You know it would really be something if these numbers really did work somehow, and it was me that just could not get them, and then wham I did get them, tell me this ,would you want to share them with everyone, not me, no way, well I would with a few people , the ones who were always there for you, friends and family type, but not the massess, nope, but if we knew they did not work, then sell them, why not? Just My opinion...


Good luck everyone
Remeber if you are interested in some fun reading let me know, Okay
Patrick

I think that you should re-read this thread Patrick.

We all love this sport because it gives us an opportunity to compete with our fellows eyeball to eyeball on some other but a finacial basis.

Specifically, it is the only game in town where the poorest amongst us can choose to compete with the likes of Ogden Phipps, or the Princes, on a level playing field.

The sentiments you express as to whether you would share with others, is the exact reason that you are not hearing anything positive about my ratings from anyone that "gets" then except me.

Chuck Berndt told me what he knew in 1981, and it put me on this path because I wanted to be like him. I can go down to GP this winter and compete with Chuck if I want to, and maybe I will, because that competition will make me a better player.

A lot of people have taken his seminar too, a lot of them didn't get it too. Nonetheless, he has made a life from betting horses for 50 years. I asked him the other night what I should do with my ratings and he told me that I should give them away, and he is right. Do you know why?

jdl

[pktruckdriver]

Because they are mumbo jumbo and nobody will ever do anything with them, that is why he said give them away, how bout giving back my ....

Okay, give them away, it will confuse everyone, and when you are suppose to pick the top 2 and bottom 2 , except when the 3rd from the top wins , then you pick him, unless it was the 4th from the bottom, then you pick him too, make sure you always pick the winner in the re-cap, that way you look great, just throw out the favorite, which ever one that is, as his number are a no brainer throw out, of course, unless he won then, he states that his number showed you he had the ability to win today.


enough

Patrick

[pktruckdriver]

So, a guy like Patrick could say, "I don't want to know, I just want to play and win." So, there is a seat for his big butt at the racetrack.

I do not want know, yet I have been asking to be taught how to learn them, and we all know you could not teach them to me or anyone else, and what's this about my butt?



I'll interject at this point, that based on that initial general snapshot, the wild-eyed gambler that wants for a small degree of logic in his play can play this 6 horse group without any more thinking, if that were the style, or the extent of knowledge.


How do I become a wild-eyed gambler with no logic, yes any attempt at getting logic here is impossible, as ther is no logic to these numbers...


1. You are intentionally taking a wild-eyed superfecta shot knowing the risk and fully aware of the potential for failure, because you are purposely seeking the higher payoff.

2. You have dismissed the fav. through application of superior analytical skills that you desire to further hone and polish, by putting what you have learned so far, on the line. Knowing that once you have mastered this analysis, the move from dimes to dollars will be easy.

For any that want to take up the challenge, just to know that they can come off the stool to answer the bell for the 15th round.


Again you state either way works, it just depends on the outcome of the race, and of course your expert anal look at at things.....

And last word we will leave you with this

It may be that I don't know how to well explain this to each and every individual in a way that they can understand it, this is yet another attempt, and that may be because it is wrapped around my own perspective, which may be far removed from yours.



Patrick

[Tom Barrister]

I have two questions for the moderators/administrators here:

One: I see jonnielu constantly bashing people and saying just about whatever he pleases. He's raked Patrick over the coals, calling him many names, and he hasn't been nice to many others, either. People who don't nod their heads and agree with his pontifications are flamed.

The rest of us have to play nice when dealing with him. Several on-target remarks have been deleted.

What's up with that?

Two: the commericial is getting very old here. The last I checked, this man isn't a paid advertiser here. When does it stop?

----

When I'm deciding whether or not to purchase a product or service, I'm as interested in the person or company behind what I'm buying as I am with the product or service itself. I haven't been impressed with either the ratings or the person behind them. To avoid getting edited again, I'll leave it at that.

Even if a methodology could be worked out (e.g. one that didn't involve backfitting), such a methodology would probably work better with ratings found in HTR, HSH, CJ's Pacefigures, JCapper, etc.

[jonnielu]

Jonnielu, that sure was a mouthful, and again with all due respect, I do believe that your ratings are quite valid and valuable to you, but to be honest with you, you lost me earlyon in your explanation of things....I believe that there is much un-explained subjectivity attached to your numbers and that is where I come up short.....

And secondly, I don't think that hoss racin' is as complicated as all that, but hey that is me........Class/Speed, and Form/Soundness = Trainer's Intentions on Raceday, and this pretty much does it for me....Of course there are numerous little supporting variables too, but I keep it pretty simple and it works wonders for me.....

best,

You are a man after my own heart LK, I am generally too lazy to apply that amount of analysis to any race, and believe it to be largely extraneous.

I included it to that degree to show that I am capable of such analysis, and to demonstrate whetner anyone wants to go to that degree or not, the option is there, and if they did so as a learning process it would bring them back to my third paragraph:


I'll interject at this point, that based on that initial general snapshot, the wild-eyed gambler that wants for a small degree of logic in his play can play this 6 horse group without any more thinking, if that were the style, or the extent of knowledge.



Hopefully to show that you can tear a race completely down every time if you want to know what is operating behind the ratings, and point out that what is operating behind the ratings is consistent whether you do or not.

Class/Speed, and Form/Soundness = Trainer's Intentions

Is always displayed within the ability last. Once anyone does the full analysis enough, they know that they are also weighing those factors with analysis of the ratings.

jdl

[jonnielu]

I have two questions for the moderators/administrators here:

One: I see jonnielu constantly bashing people and saying just about whatever he pleases. He's raked Patrick over the coals, calling him many names, and he hasn't been nice to many others, either. People who don't nod their heads and agree with his pontifications are flamed.

The rest of us have to play nice when dealing with him. Several on-target remarks have been deleted.

What's up with that?

Two: the commericial is getting very old here. The last I checked, this man isn't a paid advertiser here. When does it stop?

----

When I'm deciding whether or not to purchase a product or service, I'm as interested in the person or company behind what I'm buying as I am with the product or service itself. I haven't been impressed with either the ratings or the person behind them. To avoid getting edited again, I'll leave it at that.

Even if a methodology could be worked out (e.g. one that didn't involve backfitting), such a methodology would probably work better with ratings found in HTR, HSH, CJ's Pacefigures, JCapper, etc.

Hey Tom,

I've had my knuckles rapped in the past also, I'm the one being slammed most in this thread, and I don't object to a single post that has been made against me. Especially yours, but I'm still here discussing it without holding anything back, while you supposedly took your ball and went home.

If you disapprove so heartily of I what I see as fairness on the part of PA, why re-engage?

Why do you seem so interested in stopping this thread, when according to you, the best I can do is cut my own throat?

jdl

[turfnsport]

Why do you seem so interested in stopping this thread, when according to you, the best I can do is cut my own throat?

jdl

Oh, I'd estimate you already did that somewhere between post #7 and post #9 of this thread.

[Tom Barrister]

Hey Tom,

I've had my knuckles rapped in the past also, I'm the one being slammed most in this thread, and I don't object to a single post that has been made against me. Especially yours, but I'm still here discussing it without holding anything back, while you supposedly took your ball and went home.

If you disapprove so heartily of I what I see as fairness on the part of PA, why re-engage?

Why do you seem so interested in stopping this thread, when according to you, the best I can do is cut my own throat?

jdl

You're the one who brought me back. Did you think you could keep making references to me after I left and not get called on it? It doesn't work like that.

You're also the one who deserves to be slammed. You're either too egocentric to be able to explain how your ratings work, or you know that it's impossible to do this and have it jive with the supposed many exotics you've hit. I'd lay about 100 to 1 on the latter and have as much of a chance of losing as of seeing Lord Lucas ride into London on Shergar and play Jimmy Hoffa a game of handball.

As long as this thread is alive and I'm able to post here, you can be guaranteed that I'll be around. I've helped run off worse people than you, but if the result of my involvement is only that very few people who read this thread buy your product/seminar/whatever, then it's been worthwhile.

[Show Me the Wire]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=40299&page=7&pp=15&highlight=class+physical+soundness+smoocher

Start from post 104 and continue to the end to see the initial display of elusiveness about ability numbers being interpreted.

[jonnielu]

You're the one who brought me back. Did you think you could keep making references to me after I left and not get called on it? It doesn't work like that.

You're also the one who deserves to be slammed. You're either too egocentric to be able to explain how your ratings work, or you know that it's impossible to do this and have it jive with the supposed many exotics you've hit. I'd lay about 100 to 1 on the latter and have as much of a chance of losing as of seeing Lord Lucas ride into London on Shergar and play Jimmy Hoffa a game of handball.

As long as this thread is alive and I'm able to post here, you can be guaranteed that I'll be around. I've helped run off worse people than you, but if the result of my involvement is only that very few people who read this thread buy your product/seminar/whatever, then it's been worthwhile.

Good to see you on the comeback trail Tom, taking note that you have only been able to run off those worse then me, I'll have to figure that I must not be that bad.

jdl

[jonnielu]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=40299&page=7&pp=15&highlight=class+physical+soundness+smoocher

Start from post 104 and continue to the end to see the initial display of elusiveness about ability numbers being interpreted.

Glad to see that you are up in the bleachers too, SMTW.

jdl

[Show Me the Wire]

I am not rooting for or against any one. As the saying goes I don't have a dog in this hunt.


The referenced thread contains lots of good info about your beliefs.

[Tom]

Is it our purpose here to discuss racing or run people off?

[jonnielu]

Because they are mumbo jumbo and nobody will ever do anything with them, that is why he said give them away, how bout giving back my ....

Okay, give them away, it will confuse everyone, and when you are suppose to pick the top 2 and bottom 2 , except when the 3rd from the top wins , then you pick him, unless it was the 4th from the bottom, then you pick him too, make sure you always pick the winner in the re-cap, that way you look great, just throw out the favorite, which ever one that is, as his number are a no brainer throw out, of course, unless he won then, he states that his number showed you he had the ability to win today.


enough

Patrick

No, because he knows that you can tell everybody how to win, and few will actually do anything with the information. I'm still telling you how to win and you still aren't making a move to check it out.

It's a fine offer that you have made, do you want me to send you GP, SA, AQU, KEEfall, BEL, AP, SAR, DMR so that you could look for that superfecta pattern? Or, are you afraid that you will find it too many times?

Maybe you should send out the re-cap's, someone else would have a shot at seeing how winning 1 at 15-1 could cover 10 mis-takes and blunders.

Your butt is big. What can I do?

jdl

[jonnielu]

I am not rooting for or against any one. As the saying goes I don't have a dog in this hunt.


The referenced thread contains lots of good info about your beliefs.

Hey SMTW,

That wasn't some kind of shot suggesting that you are rooting at all.... I meant, glad to see that your out there.;)

jdl

[Show Me the Wire]

To discuss racing. That is why I referenced the What is class thread. It is a long but educational thread.

What I do find interesting is the constant in both of these threads is the fact the lack of methodology regarding the objective nimerical ratings.

All the objective numerical services I know of, except for this particular numerical rating has some form of mechanical application and it is easy to understand which performance is better just by looking at the number. For example sheet type speed figure users look for patterns illustrated by the numbers, i.e circle back, new tops paired, etc.

Beyers, the higher the number the better the performance, and a double advantage Beyer is a good selection, etc.

However, according to this most recent discussion it still seems it is difficult for the user to objectively distinguish the superior performance.

I understand there is a difference form rating a single performance with an objective rating and trying to rate over all ability with a single objective number. Maybe that is why the trucker had trouble distinguishing which horse to use.

[DeanT]

That's a good question. Do your figures have ROI or IV's associated with them John?

[pktruckdriver]

Be honest with you Tom, both Tom's this thread has gotten way out of hand.


Jon has this way of just wanting you too....

I think he knows this and continues writing and when it gets about over he will name and throw out something we will not allow to go un-answered, unlike my attempts at getting him to teach me, this ability thing of his.


That was my intention, that maybe they worked, but I needed him to teach me, simple enough, but he has refused to do so, and called stupid, wild eyed, and something about my butt, and still now refuses to make any attempt at teaching this to me.

With that said, I was willing to let it go, but it kept coming, we are stupid,and he is Mr. KNOW IT ALL, spouting all kinds of rubbish that no one understands, repaet no one, I too may be a little upset at his lack of business ethics here, but look at who we are dealing with, and then I am the all-time fool for thinking that there might be something out there that would work like this, it is basically numbers that were at 1st guaranteed to work, remember his offer for last year at Gulfstream, a 50.000.00 guarantee, well how did that do, I know I got numbers that even when I got exacta mgic numbers, a no brainer way to play, told just box these and you will win, just like a pick service does, well the fool I am I did try that a few times and it did not work, after those 2 times , any attemot to have Jon teach me about these numbers werere always rebuked, plain and simple, in time I FORGOT ABOUT THEM, then he's back and someone asked about, his service, at 1st i was staying out of this, but after numerous attempts to email and talk to jon left me with nothing but frustration woth him and put my two cents in and told this person my experience with dealing with JON , absolute nightmare, don't buy them.


Was I wrong tom think these number could work, maybe, but aren't their numbers out there that do help you to win, not always of course, but more often that not if used correctly.


So Tom and Tom I think if we just ignored this thread and let it die then maybe it will, as I am getting nothing but upset posting here, but it is like punching back when swung at, you just do it automatically, by instinct, but we are civilized and should walk away now, what do you think?


patrick

These number will never work for anyone but him, let him keep them

[Show Me the Wire]

OOps. The reference to being in the bleachers seemed to me like I was cheering for one side especially as there was a post about running you off.

Sorry for my misunderstanding.

[Tom Barrister]

Your (deleted) is big. What can I do?



You can start by acting nicer, if that's possible. That's the second time you've slammed him with a derogatory comment about his posterior.

You're the one with something for sale here, not us. Bragging about how many winners you have, and slamming others who disagree with you isn't going to sell a thing. Not many are fooled. On top of that, you've gotten insanely large amounts of free advertising, whereas REPUTABLE people like Dave Schwartz, Jeff Platt, Randy Giles, etc., have to pay for the same thing. I guess PA is cool with it.

People like you are the ones who run people away and try to intimidate others into submission. A lot of people won't express their views about you because they're afraid of you making fun of them, as you find the need to do. You didn't run me off---I left because I didn't care for the way a rule was being interpreted---but you definitely brought me back, and I'm not leaving voluntarily as long as you continue your ways here. I can't control who is allowed to post here; if I could, you would have been banned a long time ago, long before this thread was ever started. This isn't your first forray into rude behavior.

[pktruckdriver]

Your butt is big. What can I do?


ON AND ON IT GOES


P.

[turfnsport]

On top of that, you've gotten insanely large amounts of free advertising, whereas REPUTABLE people like Dave Schwartz, Jeff Platt, Randy Giles, etc., have to pay for the same thing. I guess PA is cool with it.


Tom,

I think it is safe to say anyone reading this thread would not confuse Jon with any of the respectable people you mentioned.

Not by a longshot.

[cj]

I closed this until PA can look it over. It seems to me pretty silly that the lu guy is getting basically free advertising without paying, though I'm not sure insulting people is very good advertising. The thread is getting out of hand, so out it goes.

[PaceAdvantage]

Close the thread because the insults are out of control.

But, I would not say there has been free advertising. Jonlu did not start this thread. I would never try to discourage a vendor from coming here and defending/debating their product.

Now, if Jonilu had started this thread, it would be a different story altogether.

[cj]

Good point.