Churchill/Aqueduct LONGSHOTS 10/29

[Chris Longshot]

CHURCHILL DOWNS


RACE 1

#4 BABY MY DARLIN'(15-1)
#1 FOWARD SAIL(20-1)


RACE 2

#2 Q MAC'S PHONE(6-1)
#3 STREET KING(20-1)


RACE 3

#8 SUPER SUZ(5-1)
#4 STAR CREST(10-1)


RACE 4

#7 HE LOVES ME NOT(15-1)
#5 RUN ALEX RUN(10-1)


RACE 5

#12 AUGUST BREAK(15-1)
#8 ZENFULLY(15-1)

TOTE MALFUNCTION PLAY: #9 LITTLE MANASSAS(30-1)


RACE 6

#10 PUBLIC SPEAKER(8-1)
#9 EASY TO REMEMBER(15-1)


RACE 7

#4 ANTIGONE JONES(30-1)
#12 SCARLET SECRET(15-1)


RACE 8

#3 NEVERBEENDANCIN'(8-1)


RACE 9

#5 BEAU'S VALENTINE(10-1)
#4 TIME FLIES(12-1)


RACE 10

#3 HEAVENLY SUPRISE(30-1)
#10 LADY HINKLE(12-1)




AQUEDUCT RACETRACK


RACE 1

#7 THE VIN MAN(20-1)
#6 MISSLE MOTOR(6-1)


RACE 2

#1 UNLIKELY HERO(10-1)
#7 ORDERLY(6-1)


RACE 3

#3 WEB GEM(12-1)


RACE 4

#8 NOLITE TIMERE(12-1)
#6 DONT TELL MY WIFE(15-1)

AE: #11 SIR CRYPTONITE(15-1)


RACE 5

#7 TALENTED TREASURE(6-1)
#4 MOTHER CAT(30-1)


RACE 6

#9 FREGATA(12-1)
#5 SIX GUN(50-1)


RACE 7

#6 MAGIC SHOP(20-1)
#2 FIDDLERS PRINCESS/#2B CATS A GLITTER(30-1)

AE: #3 BEEQUEONE(50-1)


RACE 8

#4 HELSINKI(6-1)
#2 AMPED(8-1)


RACE 9

#2 MOONLIGHT GAMBLER(20-1)
#9 NO HALO ON ME(15-1)

[dav4463]

Nice $80.60 winner in there! Do you know your win/place ROI for the past month or so? I've noticed quite a few nice hits, but haven't totalled it all up. Is there a big difference between your top pick and second pick?

[Chris Longshot]

hey dav, yeah had a lot of nice hits at Turfway, especially Keeneland and to a lesser extent at the Belmont meet. Dont track ROI, because one, Im posting everyday and two, the odds on mostly all my horses are so high, it would be virtually impossible to keep a positive ROI at least on the win end. If I did track my ROI, I would measure how many longshots finished in the money, no 4th spot. I play mainly triples and supers, Im just as happy to get some bombs on the bottom of a trifecta ticket than a win bet on a $80.00 horse, assuming I hit the triple of course. When they win its always nice but long term playing just on the win end would be a losing proposition, since its very naive to think longshots will consisently win week in and week out but I do believe that they frequently will run underneathe, like a few did today at Aqueduct and Churchill, which will sweeten up your exotic play. No longshot winners today, but a few 2nd and 3rd's at pretty nice prices. I do list the longshot I prefer more on top but sometimes I like them both equally. Hope I answered you question feel free to pm me if you need further clarification, thanks for the reply and good luck to you!