Sub $4-Horse Report

[stu]

For Marshall, this is a followup from the notes from research during the morning of a boring day off (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=52088)

During the last 180 days, there have been 7475 horses go off at post-time odds of 1-to-1 or less in North American thoroughbred races. An amazing 3633 have won at a hit rate circa 49%.

Of the 3633:
1231 came from maiden or maiden claiming races (51% win rate)
1445 came from claiming races excluding maiden claimers (46% win rate)
957 came from allowance and stakes races (50% win rate)

Of the 3633:
457 came from races with 10+ runners (47% win rate)
1867 came from races with 7-9 runners (48% win rate)
1309 came from races with 6- runners (50% win rate)

Of the 3633:
284 came from turf races (44% win rate)
2983 came from dirt races (47% win rate)
366 came from synthetic races (49% win rate)

Of the 3633:
2544 came from sprints (50% win rate)
1089 came from routes (46% win rate)

Of the 3633:
362 came from 2yo races (49% win rate)
3271 came from races for older horses (49% win rate)

[Marshall Bennett]

I was thinking maybe half at best , thanks !!

[sammy the sage]

very nice job...

[raybo]

This report shows that the old rule of thumb for win % of 1/1 or less horses is still good, ie: 1/1 or less win 50% of their races.

In the same vein, I assume that favorites at more than 1/1 win 33% of their races (?)

[cj]

This report shows that the old rule of thumb for win % of 1/1 or less horses is still good, ie: 1/1 or less win 50% of their races.

In the same vein, I assume that favorites at more than 1/1 win 33% of their races (?)

It would have to be less than 33% I would think.

[stu]

It would have to be less than 33% I would think.

Gotta be brief (start taking entries in a few minutes)

18544 starting PT-favorites at 6-to-5 or higher in the last 180 days for North American Thoroughbreds

5446 won at a hit rate of 29%

[rrbauer]

It would have to be less than 33% I would think.

Agree. If the 33% holds for all, then the subset of greater than even-money would need to be less than 33%, given stu's findings.

Another interesting drill-down into this data would be to create subsets within the "1-1 and lower" group by takeout range to see if the payout average for tracks with higher takeouts is lower than the payout average for tracks with lower takeouts. This would provide proof/disproof, for those of us who are advocates for lower takeouts, that lower takeouts are the road to making our money go farther.

[rrbauer]

If it would help, I can put together the track groupings (by track ID) if you want to go forward with this.

[stu]

If it would help, I can put together the track groupings (by track ID) if you want to go forward with this.


That would help. I am not likely to get to it until Mon or Tue now.

[rrbauer]

That would help. I am not likely to get to it until Mon or Tue now.

Attached. A1,41 have win-pool takeout LTE 17%; A43,64 have win-pool takeout GT 17%. There are some secondary tracks missing but I don't think that they represent significant data.

[raybo]

Gotta be brief (start taking entries in a few minutes)

18544 starting PT-favorites at 6-to-5 or higher in the last 180 days for North American Thoroughbreds

5446 won at a hit rate of 29%

The 33% was from memory, might have been 30%. Close enough as a rule of thumb.

[stu]

Your "LTE 17%" group had 3784 Even money or less runners in the last 180 days. 1835 won at a rate of 48%.

Your "GT 17%" group had had 2328 Even money or less runners in the last 180 days. 1182 won at a rate of 51%.

[rrbauer]

Your "LTE 17%" group had 3784 Even money or less runners in the last 180 days. 1835 won at a rate of 48%.

Your "GT 17%" group had had 2328 Even money or less runners in the last 180 days. 1182 won at a rate of 51%.

Thanks stu, but I was looking for the average win payout for the two groups.

[stu]

Thanks stu, but I was looking for the average win payout for the two groups.

The HTR2 robot utility reports to the nearest dime.

Both populations were reported to have an average mutuel of $3.40

[Harvhorse]

I have been told that horse in the range of 5/1 6/1 win more than their fair share of races. If you have spare time could you research this and put it online?

[DeanT]

I thought about this as a good study, but either am not smart enough or don't have the patience.... both prolly true.

Check "grind horses" like Rich says, and then add a rebate/takeout reduction for them. See if by betting blind, with a small filter or two even would get your ROI up from 0.85 to 0.95. Then show how much money you'd be with a $1000 bankroll on those horses in case a versus case b. I would assume the money bet would go up substantially, and the business would make more money for purses.

[stu]

I have been told that horse in the range of 5/1 6/1 win more than their fair share of races. If you have spare time could you research this and put it online?


I missed this post.

Sample Size: Last 180 days
PT Odds 5-to-1 to 6-to-1

11986 runners
1474 winners (12%) for a flat-bet loss