Zarkava or Zenyatta, Who would have won?

[Bobzilla]

The "Z" sisters. Even their names sound similar.

For me the most memorable moment from this year's Breeders' Cup will be the explosive burst we witnessed from Goldikova as she ran on to victory in the BC Mile. It was nothing less than brilliant. When one looks at her past running lines and sees how she was never able to handle Zarkava things really begin to get scary. Zarkava's most impressive wins this year were at Chantilly and Longchamps in the French Oaks and Prix de l'arc de triomph respectively.

Zenyatta was a perfect 8/8 going into the BC Distaff (It will always be Distaff to me), which included a win at Oaklawn over blessed dirt thank God, and went on to affirm her North American dominance with an electifying performance that left very few questions.

Few questions but maybe this intriguing one. What if Zarkava made it to SA for the Distaff to take on Zenyatta on the heels of her victory in Paris earlier this month? Or, better yet, as I'm sure many will consider the Arc to BC bounce, what if for whatever reason the Aga Khan doesn't want to test the boys in Paris and opts for the BC instead.

Who do you think would have won? Could Zenyatta have won the Arc? Would the bloom have been off of Zenyatta's rose if the best turf fillies in Europe came to run in the BC Distaff and Zenyatta had finished fourth; an equivilent test faced by our boy Curlin who, quite unfairly and without proper clarity of perspective, was asked to meet an entirely different standard then was asked of prior North American main track champions whose reputations were never put into the position of being tarnished by facing the best Euros at their own game? Synthetics are the European's game as they unarguably play like synthetic grass. At least Zenyatta would have had a fighting chance being proven over the synthetic grass.

But I digress, back to the girls. Of these two brilliant distaffers (there's that word again), who would the most likely winner have been over the Pro-Ride surface over nine panels at Santa Anita?

[cj]

Zarkava at a classic distance hands down in my opinion. At the 9f Distaff distance, I'd probably favor Zenyatta.

Zenyatta in the Arc would have been a total non-factor.

[OTM Al]

Zarkava in a romp if at 1 1/4m. Closer at 1 1/8m but I don't think Zenyatta would have been able to get by her is she used her standard tactics. Zenyatta likely would have gotten beaten in the Arc, first off as we don't know how far she can go effectively and no experience on European turf.

[Bobzilla]

Zarkava at a classic distance hands down in my opinion. At the 9f Distaff distance, I'd probably favor Zenyatta.

Zenyatta in the Arc would have been a total non-factor.


Agree for the most part, though Zarkava's win at Longchamps back in May in the Pouile d'essai des Pouliches does have me wondering. That race was at 8 furlongs and Goldikova finished second two lenghts back. I agree Zenyatta would have a better chance at shorter distances.

[Charlie D]

Zarkava laughed at her opposition at 8f, she laughed at them at 10.5f and although i think Zenyatta would not be laughed at, i think she would be beat by Zarkava

[Bobzilla]

Zarkava in a romp if at 1 1/4m. Closer at 1 1/8m but I don't think Zenyatta would have been able to get by her is she used her standard tactics. Zenyatta likely would have gotten beaten in the Arc, first off as we don't know how far she can go effectively and no experience on European turf.


You know I think you're probably right about the tactics part of this. We're conditioned to quick and decisive middle moves whereas the Euros like to jump all over those who make the middle move and usually finish them off.

[cj]

It would be interesting to see which one started in last.

[Premier Turf Club]

I think Goldikova might take Zenyatta on Pro-Ride and Zarkava dusted her.

I gave Zarkava a 117 Beyer winning the Arc. I don't think Zenyatta could outfinish her.

[DeanT]

Pretty tough to go against the Arc winner, if you trust timeform

http://www.thoroughbrednews.co.nz/international/default.aspx?id=37004

She got a 133, ranking her with some of the very best ever.

Unfortunately in this game, we'll never find out.

[joanied]

I may be wrong...but haven't they retired Zarkava?
At any rate, in this 'dream scenario', I beleive Zenyatta would beat Zarkava even at 1 1/4 mile...would maybe be close, but Zenyatta gets the nod. Goldikova has to be the best Miler in the World...a tiny tornado...but in any race further than the mile, Zenyatta beats her too.

[Humph]

Goldikova has to be the best Miler in the World..

Henrythenavigator ,Raven's Pass, and Zarkava - who slammed Goldikova in the French 1000 Guineas - would have something to say about that.

[Gorgeous George]

stupid poll, zarkava would have destroyed her the question here should be by how many lengths? id say 10

[Bobzilla]

stupid poll, zarkava would have destroyed her the question here should be by how many lengths? id say 10


Thank You for your commentary. I'd agree with you that Zarkava would win. I also believe Goldikova would have defeated Zenyatta. I'm doubtful Zarkava would have won by ten lengths at nine furlongs but I'm not so much concerned about lengths.

At this time here in the States an argument is being made by many that Zenyatta should receive horse of the year honors rather than Curlin. Though I would personally lean towards Curlin, as I believe in the larger picture he had a more enterprising year than did Zenyatta, I certainly wouldnt' have too much of a problem with Zenyatta receiving the honor in the wake of her perfect season which included a win on Oaklawn's dirt surface. That being said, I am curious, however, if the bloom would have been off of Zenyatta's rose, as it is now for Curlin in the minds of some, if she had had to face Europe's toughest turf mares in the Distaff and had come up short, which I believe she would have. Often times a horse's lasting legacy simply hinges on who decides to show up or not show up for a defining event. Smarty Jones knows that all too well.

[Charlie D]

zarkava would have destroyed her the question here should be by how many lengths? id say 10

These are Timeform ratings

Zarkava 133 ( there is 2lb added to this rating)
Zenyatta 128
Goldikova 128


So according to Timeform 's handicap Zarkava would win by a couple of length


have Timeform missed a race George or are you making stupid comments????

[joanied]

Henrythenavigator ,Raven's Pass, and Zarkava - who slammed Goldikova in the French 1000 Guineas - would have something to say about that.

OK:) But I'll stick to my opinion!!

[Gorgeous George]

These are Timeform ratings

Zarkava 133 ( there is 2lb added to this rating)
Zenyatta 128
Goldikova 128


So according to Timeform 's handicap Zarkava would win by a couple of length


have Timeform missed a race George or are you making stupid comments????

charlie, charlie, charlie...why are you always at me?

im only stating the truth zenyatta has beat nothing this year and timeform can only go on the fact she won america best filly races against bad opposition. Zarkava has beat the best at different distances so lets not argue over this stupid question.

[Charlie D]

charlie, charlie, charlie...why are you always at me?

im only stating the truth zenyatta has beat nothing this year and timeform can only go on the fact she won america best filly races against bad opposition. Zarkava has beat the best at different distances so lets not argue over this stupid question.

George i'm not "at you", i'm querying your earlier statement regarding Zarkava destroying Zenyatta by 10


Timeform have been rating horses for many, many years and i think their ratings are maybe closer to the truth than the statements you are making


In other words, Timeform ratings equals reality, you statements equal fantasy

[CincyHorseplayer]

Being as the table was basically set for a meeting of arguably "The best of both worlds" meeting it's kind of funky how it played out even though there is logic in all the thinking of the participants backers.

The Aga Khan didn't fear Zarkava racing against males all year,yet to my knowledge the BC exacta never faced her,and Zenyatta didn't face anything with a "pair" based on some half baked Eight-Belles rationalisation.

Looking at the Arc tape I think Zarkava would have blown them all away.And after watching Goldie and Raven win,that is all I could think about while walking the Turfway Park 4th floor waiting for the BC payoffs.

Zarkava is a fascination we will never know.That sucks!

[WinterTriangle]

I'm reviving this topic for fun, since Rachel Alexandra hadn't done what she's done yet at the time.

So, how would she fit in here?


Looking at the Arc tape I think Zarkava would have blown them all away.

Just curious.

I'm a Zarkava fan, so I don't think Zenyatta OR Rachel could have beat her.

[CincyHorseplayer]

[QUOTE=WinterTriangle]I'm reviving this topic for fun, since Rachel Alexandra hadn't done what she's done yet at the time.

So, how would she fit in here?




Just curious.

I'm a Zarkava fan, so I don't think Zenyatta OR Rachel could have beat her.[/QUOTE

It does stink because we'll never know.The plastic and the Aga Khan robbed us of it.She more validated the 3yo crop IMO.

And that reality underlines the senselessness IMO.We never get to see the best against the best.The invention was to do so but it has degenerated into earthbound vs moonbound.Zenyatta as much as I love her,might be the biggest joke on the planet.But put her on dirt she might grip and rip.

Either way the way she is handled is a joke.They're scared and they know they're scared.She is not the best horse amongst females,but she is the best horse against males.

[Bobzilla]

I'm reviving this topic for fun, since Rachel Alexandra hadn't done what she's done yet at the time.

So, how would she fit in here?




Just curious.

I'm a Zarkava fan, so I don't think Zenyatta OR Rachel could have beat her.


When I opened this thread/poll last year the question was raised within the context of last year's Breeders' Cup. Who would have won on that specific day in that specific race. My own gutt feel was that if Zarkava had skipped the Arc, or ran in the Arc and didn't experience a serious performance regression off that effort, then she would have been the most likely winner. I have a world of respect for Zenyatta. How could one not? I did think, however, that her assignment in the BC was an easier one then that of Curlin who was expected by many to perform to his own high standards against the world's best on a less preferred surface type which may have played more to the European style. Curlin's 4th place finish behind RP, Henry and Tiago, in the minds of some, provided more ammunition for the position that Curlin's form had waned. With everyone down on Curlin at the time I was curious to know what people thought would have happened if a primed Euro she-monster such as Zarkava had ran in the Ladies Classic (a.k.a. BC Distaff).

One thing that we can probably all agree on is that as racing fans we've been witness to some serious brilliance among the distaffers in recent years. With fillies like Rags to Riches, Zarkava, Zenyatta, and Rachel Alexandra we've seen some unusually strong performers. The question of who beats who is somewhat pointless, imo, without consideration of form cycles, surface type, field composition, field size, post position, distance, etc.etc.

[PaceAdvantage]

Zenyatta as much as I love her,might be the biggest joke on the planet.But put her on dirt she might grip and rip.She's already been on dirt and ran a helluva race in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn if memory serves me....

I think you might be selling Zenyatta short a bit....I think a race involving Zenyatta (the closer) vs. Rachel Alexandra (the presser/speed) would be one of the more exciting matchups to come down the pike in recent years...

The only problem would be finding other horses to fill the field so it doesn't end up a match race (where we know RA would enjoy a massive and most likely insurmountable advantage).

[CincyHorseplayer]

She's already been on dirt and ran a helluva race in the Apple Blossom at Oaklawn if memory serves me....

I think you might be selling Zenyatta short a bit....I think a race involving Zenyatta (the closer) vs. Rachel Alexandra (the presser/speed) would be one of the more exciting matchups to come down the pike in recent years...

The only problem would be finding other horses to fill the field so it doesn't end up a match race (where we know RA would enjoy a massive and most likely insurmountable advantage).

:ThmbUp: That's what I want to see.

[Gorgeous George]

I may be wrong...but haven't they retired Zarkava?
At any rate, in this 'dream scenario', I beleive Zenyatta would beat Zarkava even at 1 1/4 mile...would maybe be close, but Zenyatta gets the nod. Goldikova has to be the best Miler in the World...a tiny tornado...but in any race further than the mile, Zenyatta beats her too.

Zenyatta is over-rated big time..Zarkava would have beat her silly at any distance..she was a freak filly, end of debate.

[Gorgeous George]

Goldikova won a group 1 today in Newmarkets Falmouth stakes and was very impressive. Do you think she will be able to retain her bc mile crown this year?

[Bobzilla]

Goldikova won a group 1 today in Newmarkets Falmouth stakes and was very impressive. Do you think she will be able to retain her bc mile crown this year?


I'm glad to learn that Goldikova is still in training and apparently doing quite well. Her BC Mile victory last autumn, along with Migliore's win aboard Desert Code, were my two favorite moments from last year's BC.

Without knowing the field composition of this year's event, as well as post positions, surface condition and the relative form of her competitors, it would be hard for me at this point to have any opinion as to her chances for successfully defending her BC Mile crown. That said, if she's anything like she was last year I would have to assume she would have an excellent chance. She is without a doubt one class filly.

I don't have her pps in front of me at the moment and I can't seem to recall what her history is, if any, with trying 9f. Has she ever done this distance before or is she more of a sprinter who can move it up to a mile? If so how did she do? Just wondering off the top of my head if she would be a possible candidate for the Ladies Classic.

[classhandicapper]

I want to go on record as saying that IMO Zenyatta is underrated at this stage of her career. It's not unusual for figure oriented people to under appreciate horses that rarely lose because numbers can't always measure some of the less tangible qualities of great horses. But I think this whole Synthetic issue is taking a lot away from the perception of her greatness. It's even harder to measure her performances relative to dirt horses that on average win by larger margins and put up faster pace/speed figures because of race development/surface issues. If she was running on dirt, she'd be putting up faster figures on occasion and sometimes crush fields instead of just getting up easily. Yes, Zarkava was probably better based on her peak effort, but there's no way it's a blowout. I don't think any filly that ever lived (including Ruffian) could blow Zenyatta out when she fires her "A" race unless there was an extreme pace or bias issue. They may outrun her and hold her off, but IMO this filly is a freak and being underrated.

[joanied]

I want to go on record as saying that IMO Zenyatta is underrated at this stage of her career. It's not unusual for figure oriented people to under appreciate horses that rarely lose because numbers can't always measure some of the less tangible qualities of great horses. But I think this whole Synthetic issue is taking a lot away from the perception of her greatness. It's even harder to measure her performances relative to dirt horses that on average win by larger margins and put up faster pace/speed figures because of race development/surface issues. If she was running on dirt, she'd be putting up faster figures on occasion and sometimes crush fields instead of just getting up easily. Yes, Zarkava was probably better based on her peak effort, but there's no way it's a blowout. I don't think any filly that ever lived (including Ruffian) could blow Zenyatta out when she fires her "A" race unless there was an extreme pace or bias issue. They may outrun her and hold her off, but IMO this filly is a freak and being underrated.

Well said:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Nikki1997]

I want to go on record as saying that IMO Zenyatta is underrated at this stage of her career. It's not unusual for figure oriented people to under appreciate horses that rarely lose because numbers can't always measure some of the less tangible qualities of great horses. But I think this whole Synthetic issue is taking a lot away from the perception of her greatness. It's even harder to measure her performances relative to dirt horses that on average win by larger margins and put up faster pace/speed figures because of race development/surface issues. If she was running on dirt, she'd be putting up faster figures on occasion and sometimes crush fields instead of just getting up easily. Yes, Zarkava was probably better based on her peak effort, but there's no way it's a blowout. I don't think any filly that ever lived (including Ruffian) could blow Zenyatta out when she fires her "A" race unless there was an extreme pace or bias issue. They may outrun her and hold her off, but IMO this filly is a freak and being underrated.

Excellent post. Funny you mention the numbers vs. synthethic, because on a couple of other forums, mention is made as to Zenyatta's interior fractions, not to mention she has won all 11 races in the same style. All 11 races.
I agree she is a uniquely talented filly and one who doesn't come around very often. As one poster wrote (a handicapper who is neutral), there may be horses better than Zenyatta, but a rare few like her.

[Cratos]

I don't think any filly that ever lived (including Ruffian) could blow Zenyatta out when she fires her "A" race unless there was an extreme pace or bias issue. They may outrun her and hold her off, but IMO this filly is a freak and being underrated.

In the 42 years that I have been wagering on and watching thoroughbred racehorses I have seen some female horse monsters run, but when it comes to female horse monster-eaters I have seen only two: Ruffian and Go for Wand.

Therefore at any distance and on any surface (yes, synthetic and turf) both Zarkava and Zenyetta would have been beaten by either of those two.

[PaceAdvantage]

They may outrun her and hold her off, but IMO this filly is a freak and being underrated.Good post...I'm inclined to agree with most everything you stated...