View Full Version : A few who ran better than they looked
These are a few from BC weekend that I think ran better than their finish will show:
Two Step Salsa: Set the pace and finished a close 3rd in the mile. The other horses in the superfecta were 8th, 9th, and 12th after a half mile.
Coronet of a Baron: Similar to above, this one was a close up 4th in the Juvenile turf and finished a good 3rd after faltering late. The others in the superfecta were 9th, 8th, and 11th after a 1/2.
Midnight Lute and Street Boss: Yes, it is hard to imagine Midnight Lute ran better than he looked, but the pace was very slow for the final time and he still ran past the others like they were standing still. Street Boss was also making up good ground late.
Soldier of Fortune: Was way, way too close to his own rabbit. I have no idea what the jockey was doing. Maybe it was just the horse running off, but he has rated fine before.
Indian Blessing: This one is obvious. The other horses near the pace finished in another zip code.
zerosky
10-27-2008, 06:00 PM
Fatal Bullet Bled profusely for the last furlong in the sprint
Not sure if he would have beat the beast that is Midnite Lute but it can't have helped.
Add Goldikova to the list, she raced close to a fast pace and still finished like a rocket.:ThmbUp:
Midnight Lute and Street Boss: Yes, it is hard to imagine Midnight Lute ran better than he looked, but the pace was very slow for the final time and he still ran past the others like they were standing still. Street Boss was also making up good ground late.
Disagree; Fatal Bullet clearly earned the Purple Heart in there.
Slow pace? 21:28 / 43:85 / 55:14 (Top 2, 5th and 1st by a mile respective times for the meet) and virtual all the animals who won against those wild fractions came off it.
Valuist
10-27-2008, 08:25 PM
I had the Juvenile dirt pace as slow; speed horses ran 1-2-3 around the track; I thought Terrain and West Side Bernie ran big races just making up any ground, and West Side Bernie had a terrible post.
Agree re: Soldier of Fortune. I thought chasing your own rabbit thru a fast pace was enough to give that rider "pinhead of the day" award.
Imriledup
10-27-2008, 09:15 PM
The Pletcher horse (the longer priced of his two) in the juvy colts raced ok, he was last all the way and never got into the race and had some run at the end and galloped out well.
Cocoa beach was also super, she was buried inside and zenyatta got first run on her, she ran HUGE.
LottaKash
10-27-2008, 09:23 PM
Add Goldikova to the list, she raced close to a fast pace and still finished like a rocket.:ThmbUp:
I agree, she was so Quick to accelerate after crashing her way out of that hole, Cat Quick I'd say....I was shocked a bit, as she is still just a baby Girl facing the older Boyz........Ya gotta look out for this one....Looking forward to seeing more of her...
best,
Disagree; Fatal Bullet clearly earned the Purple Heart in there.
Slow pace? 21:28 / 43:85 / 55:14 (Top 2, 5th and 1st by a mile respective times for the meet) and virtual all the animals who won against those wild fractions came off it.
The track was lightning fast. I don't want to bore everyone to death with figure making, but for that final time, an average pace would be 43.30, or .55 seconds faster. That equates to about 3.5 lengths at the 1/2 mile call, which I would definitely consider significantly slow.
I had the Juvenile dirt pace as slow; speed horses ran 1-2-3 around the track; I thought Terrain and West Side Bernie ran big races just making up any ground, and West Side Bernie had a terrible post.
Agree re: Soldier of Fortune. I thought chasing your own rabbit thru a fast pace was enough to give that rider "pinhead of the day" award.
I had the Juvenile pace as moderately fast. It looked to me like the closers just weren't very good.
The track was lightning fast. I don't want to bore everyone to death with figure making, but for that final time, an average pace would be 43.30, or .55 seconds faster. That equates to about 3.5 lengths at the 1/2 mile call, which I would definitely consider significantly slow.
That’s too much variant applied to the pace call imo, but to each his own…it’s certainly not an exact science.
That’s too much variant applied to the pace call imo, but to each his own…it’s certainly not an exact science.
It certainly is not. And, to be honest, I do have the pace figure faster than just applying the speed figure variant would make it, but it is still on the slowish side. In any case, I can say with confidence there is no way the pace was fast. I still think it was slow, but could accept average.
peakpros
10-27-2008, 11:02 PM
I thought Two Step Salsa ran a tough gutsy race.
I also thought Breen's West Side Bernie did very well with an outside post and a rough trip.
It certainly is not. And, to be honest, I do have the pace figure faster than just applying the speed figure variant would make it, but it is still on the slowish side. In any case, I can say with confidence there is no way the pace was fast. I still think it was slow, but could accept average.
I know its ‘unusual, but we completely agree to disagree….
1st time ever I think. :D
I know its ‘unusual, but we completely agree to disagree….
1st time ever I think. :D
Care to explain why you think the pace was fast?
Care to explain why you think the pace was fast?
Sure;
The main reason “I” view it as a fast pace is because I watched the horses run. Watch the replay; Fatal Bullet is sent as hard as he can and he is still outrun to the 1st call. They were flat out into that turn expending maximum energy.
From a figure standpoint when an animal is sent that hard in a BC sprint when every animal is on edge; and that field contains three animals who whose last 1st call was faster then anything Fatal Bullet has ever run. Logic / the tele-timer and my experience tell me it was fast.
I’ve never been a big fan of discussing figures in “absolute” terms if that’s where this is going. It’s not an exact science and won’t be in our lifetime. I bring my own perception to the equation in every race I watch as I guess you do. Fortunately there are few black and white numerical conclusions in racing as the Thoro-Graph seminar certainty proved this year.
jonnielu
10-28-2008, 09:29 AM
It certainly is not. And, to be honest, I do have the pace figure faster than just applying the speed figure variant would make it, but it is still on the slowish side. In any case, I can say with confidence there is no way the pace was fast. I still think it was slow, but could accept average.
I think this is where you get to come back and explain how it was slow.
jdl
I think this is where you get to come back and explain how it was slow.
jdl
I already did that.
Sure;
The main reason “I” view it as a fast pace is because I watched the horses run. Watch the replay; Fatal Bullet is sent as hard as he can and he is still outrun to the 1st call. They were flat out into that turn expending maximum energy.
From a figure standpoint when an animal is sent that hard in a BC sprint when every animal is on edge; and that field contains three animals who whose last 1st call was faster then anything Fatal Bullet has ever run. Logic / the tele-timer and my experience tell me it was fast.
I’ve never been a big fan of discussing figures in “absolute” terms if that’s where this is going. It’s not an exact science and won’t be in our lifetime. I bring my own perception to the equation in every race I watch as I guess you do. Fortunately there are few black and white numerical conclusions in racing as the Thoro-Graph seminar certainty proved this year.
Fair enough. I take into account that the riders are smart enough to realize that gunning to the front was a sure way to defeat on that surface. They may be sent to establish position for a short burst, but nothing more than that in the early going.
The first quarter might have been on the quick side if one makes numbers for that, but I don't. The second quarter, run in about 22 3/5, was pretty pedestrian on that lightening quick surface.
john del riccio
10-28-2008, 09:44 AM
Fair enough. I take into account that the riders are smart enough to realize that gunning to the front was a sure way to defeat on that surface. They may be sent to establish position for a short burst, but nothing more than that in the early going.
The first quarter might have been on the quick side if one makes numbers for that, but I don't. The second quarter, run in about 22 3/5, was pretty pedestrian on that lightening quick surface.
CJ,
I gave the race an 84 pace and an 84 variant (that ~115 on the Beyer scale). This isnt an exact science. Go figure (no pun intended).
John
PS I had Midnight Lute as running the best race on the card.
onefast99
10-28-2008, 06:15 PM
Kip Deville ran a great race very game coming home.
Valuist
10-28-2008, 07:51 PM
Based on the charts, I didn't think the Sprint pace was slow. Deep closers ran 1st and 3rd. Fabulous Strike and First Defence ended up far back after trying to chase Fatal Bullet. Fatal Bullet did run 2nd, but he was loose and was the only proven speed on synthetic.
Getting back to the Juvenile, you had almost the entire field within 7 lengths after 4f; IMO, thats a bunched field.
Based on the charts, I didn't think the Sprint pace was slow. Deep closers ran 1st and 3rd. Fabulous Strike and First Defence ended up far back after trying to chase Fatal Bullet. Fatal Bullet did run 2nd, but he was loose and was the only proven speed on synthetic.
Getting back to the Juvenile, you had almost the entire field within 7 lengths after 4f; IMO, thats a bunched field.
There are many races where the visual and the clock tell different stories.
proximity
10-29-2008, 12:03 AM
relatively speaking (very), before applying any par charts, variants, wind adjustments....., we see alot more 43 4/5 2nd calls than we see 107 flat final times. certainly 43 4/5 is a very fast time for the 2nd call, probably 98 or 99th percentile. but 107 flat is a 100th percentile final time for this distance. so at first glance anyhow, this implies that the pace was slow.....
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