Let's say it: Albarado gave a bad ride

[Bubbles]

I like Robby Albarado. I think he's one of the top jockeys in the world, and he seems to be a good guy as well. However, he moved too soon and too widely.

I get that on a regular dirt track, the horse probably sprouts wings and wins for fun. But he went four or five-wide against the best horses in the world a sixteenth to an eighth of a mile too soon. The move was impressive, but the second I saw it being made, I said to myself, "Someone's catching him."

Granted, this wasn't as bad as Murtagh saying he had a perfect trip on Soldier of Fortune in the Turf (News flash: You went the first mile of a twelve-furlong race in 1:33 and change! :bang: ). But Albarado should have known better. Curlin is a great horse, but he's not the same off conventional dirt, and there was no way he makes that move and still wins.

[PaceAdvantage]

Maybe I missed it, but being wide did not appear to be a bad thing during the Breeders Cup on the pro-ride surface. So lets forget about the wide part.

Yes, Robby probably went a little too soon, but I've been saying all along Curlin would get beaten by Euros, so this doesn't surprise me in the least.

Curlin showed he wasn't a top class grass horse when he lost to Red Rocks. Pro-ride is more like turf than dirt. Why in the world would anyone think Curlin could beat some of the best Europe has to offer in the BC Classic on pro-ride when he couldn't beat Red Rocks (sent off as the fourth choice today in his race) on the turf?

[cj]

Yes, Robby probably went a little too soon, but I've been saying all along Curlin would get beaten by Euros, so this doesn't surprise me in the least.


...no rider was getting Curlin home first today. His finish actually impressed me as much as his recent wins.

[Bubbles]

...no rider was getting Curlin home first today. His finish actually impressed me as much as his recent wins.
I wasn't saying if Robby waits, he wins, but I do think he finishes third, possibly even contends for second, if Albarado goes inside and waits for horses to inevitably drift.

[Charlie D]

...no rider was getting Curlin home first today. His finish actually impressed me as much as his recent wins.

Looks to me Curlin's run today is very close to the Woodward CJ

[maxwell]

Curlin didn't pack it in when the real running started. I was impressed as well.

[OTM Al]

He ran fine and put a very nice move on. Had he been running on dirt, he wins. As it was, he wasn't and got beat by a couple really nice milers. He is the best dirt horse in the world, but on synth or turf, he is only good.

[peakpros]

Curlin didn't pack it in when the real running started. I was impressed as well.

I agree...a class horse who left it all on the track...

i think the ride was fine...

[Mineshaft]

Curlin has lost a step and hes been that way since he got back from Dubai. i dont think it would of mattered if he moved when he was suppose to he still would of got beat.



I look for them to retire him.

[ghostyapper]

Why in the world would anyone think Curlin could beat some of the best Europe has to offer in the BC Classic on pro-ride when he couldn't beat Red Rocks (sent off as the fourth choice today in his race) on the turf?

They were the best milers in europe and had never gone beyond a mile. The euro that was dominant beyond a mile (duke) finished 9th.

[cj]

They were the best milers in europe and had never gone beyond a mile. The euro that was dominant beyond a mile (duke) finished 9th.


Most people here were predicting the Duke was tailing off. He came here as an afterthought after running in the Arc, and I don't remember that ever working. Horses did better from that race when the BC was held in November, but I think the turnaround is too quick now.

[sammy the sage]

Get it right PEOPLE.... :bang:

No "ROIDS"...no super horse here!

I've posted on this topic before...

And every-one wants to blame the surface...wah, wah, :( , wah, wah...

the English guy...mentioned it brieflly...but it SEEMED taboo w/ every-one else...

no BARRY BONDS/ROGER CLEMONS JUICE....not quite the same horse...EH!

I had a good day...yep...classic red-board...I'll leave it at that!

[sammy the sage]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^


http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=50203&highlight=curlin

[Charlie D]

I think Curlin's performance today and his 4yo career show that horses don't need roids to perform well

[BeatTheChalk]

Curlin has lost a step and hes been that way since he got back from Dubai. i dont think it would of mattered if he moved when he was suppose to he still would of got beat.



I look for them to retire him.

Flying these days has become a health hazzard. My friend's wife is and has
been flying American for 30 years. She has never seen so many passengers
and pilots, stews etc...who are sick !
My friend went to Texas from California. His voice is still screwed up. Whatever is happening in the friendly skies ...is not friendly at all.

[sammy the sage]

^^^^^

NO...I believe the EURO's showed that...

We have NO IDEA as too how good Curlin actually is or is not...

[Charlie D]

We have NO IDEA as too how good Curlin actually is or is not...

You may have no idea, but i''l take my chances with these

DWC 131
Woodward 129
Classic (2008) 127

[onefast99]

He still looked great today he has had a long campaign, if I could get a horse with 10% of his earnings potential in my barn I would be very happy. Great horse, and a great career. Thanks Curlin...

[JustRalph]

He ran just like he has done every race since Dubai......... he just plain got beat today. Still one hell of a horse.........and I can think of 10 million reasons why.......... :ThmbUp:

[Mineshaft]

Flying these days has become a health hazzard. My friend's wife is and has
been flying American for 30 years. She has never seen so many passengers
and pilots, stews etc...who are sick !
My friend went to Texas from California. His voice is still screwed up. Whatever is happening in the friendly skies ...is not friendly at all.





You lost me...

[cj's dad]

Flying these days has become a health hazzard. My friend's wife is and has
been flying American for 30 years. She has never seen so many passengers
and pilots, stews etc...who are sick !
My friend went to Texas from California. His voice is still screwed up. Whatever is happening in the friendly skies ...is not friendly at all.

Where are they sitting??? on the wing???

[cj's dad]

He ran just like he has done every race since Dubai......... he just plain got beat today. Still one hell of a horse.........and I can think of 10 million reasons why.......... :ThmbUp:

And Jess jackson is one hell of a guy- actually mentioned the fans and how the sport needs a Curlin- way to go JJ

[LottaKash]

And Jess jackson is one hell of a guy- actually mentioned the fans and how the sport needs a Curlin- way to go JJ

Definitely not his day, tremendous move couldn't sustain it, not his top form......Shouldn't have raced today....On a top-form day, that move would have been a clincher as the others wouldn't have been able to withstand it....Not today, tho......Too bad for Curlin, should have been enjoying a nice vacation......

best,

[Charlie D]

Definitely not his day, tremendous move couldn't sustain it, not his top form......Shouldn't have raced today....On a top-form day, that move would have been a clincher as the others wouldn't have been able to withstand it....Not today, tho......Too bad for Curlin, should have been enjoying a nice vacation......

best,

Can't believe this kind of talk



He's been beaten a couple of length by Ravens Pass, a TOP Class 3yo in Europe, Henrythenavigator, a TOP Class 3yo in Europe, both of whom were unexposed at 10 panels

Give these horses the credit they deserve and give Curlin the credit he deserves

[Premier Turf Club]

I thought Curlin was very game in defeat. He got beat, period. It wasn't Albarado. I had Raven's Pass with a 115 Beyer in his last, the QEII. Henry ran a 113 in the same race. That's faster than anything Curlin had run in 2008. If you belived the Euros could repeat that effort on Pro-Ride and that Curlin was unlikely to run any faster on artificial than he had run on dirt in 2008...

So if it was so formful how did I not play Raven's Pass??? I thought about it but ended up on Go Between... :bang:

[Hank]

What tells the tale is Tiago beating Curlin that says it all imop.

[OTM Al]

Tiago is a mop up artist who's style fits poly to a tee. On dirt he's closing fast to be about 5 lenghts back. I've always wondered why they don't try him on turf, but he's probably done now anyway.

[DanG]

And Jess jackson is one hell of a guy- actually mentioned the fans and how the sport needs a Curlin- way to go JJ
Well said; That’s a fact. :ThmbUp:

Can you imagine the deflated status of this race if Curlin and Big Brown defected? The owner could feel the “sport” needed his star and he obliged. How novel is that when racing seems to revolve around self interest. The timing wasn’t even right for his animal as the trainer did NOT make this call. He should be commended and his horse still deserves…Horse of ‘our year imo.

BTW: What was that whole Ivarone ‘death threat business on the heals of Dutrow yesterday giving the back of his to women in general. What a weird saga since the Belmont. :confused:

Well done champ…So much compressed into a short campaign. After his 3yo MSW win he has had his foot to the floor taking on all comers.
http://theaspiringhorseplayer.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/curlin-glamour-shot.jpg

[pandy]

Maybe I missed it, but being wide did not appear to be a bad thing during the Breeders Cup on the pro-ride surface. So lets forget about the wide part.

Yes, Robby probably went a little too soon, but I've been saying all along Curlin would get beaten by Euros, so this doesn't surprise me in the least.

Curlin showed he wasn't a top class grass horse when he lost to Red Rocks. Pro-ride is more like turf than dirt. Why in the world would anyone think Curlin could beat some of the best Europe has to offer in the BC Classic on pro-ride when he couldn't beat Red Rocks (sent off as the fourth choice today in his race) on the turf?


I picked Duke of Marmalade against Curlin but I thought that my 3rd and 4th picks Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass both had very good chances and were overlays. The synthetic surface certainly gives the Europeon horses a better chance, and they are top quality horses. I thought this field was much better than any field Curlin's beaten lately and his figures just weren't that impressive this year. All of the American horses were overbet. I hit the exacta but I really needed the 4-5 to get a score.

If you factor in class when handicapping, I don't see how anyone can complain about Pro Ride. The best horses tend to win over it because there's no speed bias, so even if the best horse is far back and has to race wide it can still win, and if the best horse is real good it can win up front, although the track definitely favors stalkers and closers. The way the So. Cal dirt tracks used to play, a lot of times the best horse got beat by the bias while a horse with less class stole the race on the lead. Those days are gone.

[DeanT]

Oh no, not this rider thing again. :)

Nice post Dan. Wonderful horse. He tried his guts out today just like he has done in every start in his career. They can't win them all.

[Charlie D]

. I had Raven's Pass with a 115 Beyer in his last, the QEII. Henry ran a 113 in the same race. That's faster than anything Curlin had run in 2008. If you belived the Euros could repeat that effort on Pro-Ride and that Curlin was unlikely to run any faster on artificial than he had run on dirt in 2008...



Seems your figs were almost spot on Ian, maybe you should turn profesional speed figure compiler and help other handicappers who seem to think Curlin was beat by a couple of Claimers

[Imriledup]

Normally when a person criticizes a ride, i think the most important thing to mention what would have been the better option? The OP doesn't say what Robby SHOULD have done instead. Curlin was a bunch of lengths back in a big field, i'm not sure what he could have done differently. He could have theoretically waited longer, but if you are riding an all time great horse the last thing you want to do as a rider is wait too long. If he waits too long and pulls the trigger and never reaches, he's REALLY criticized......i think to this day Pat Day is still hearing about some botched rides on Easy Goer because he waited too long to move.

People forget about the 'bad rides' where a jock moves too soon........you can't criticize for a jock giving his horse 'a shot'. Robby took a proactive stance .........as you should, with a great horse who's 4-5.

[Premier Turf Club]

Seems your figs were almost spot on Ian, maybe you should turn profesional speed figure compiler and help other handicappers who seem to think Curlin was beat by a couple of Claimers

I was years ago. As a number of this board can attest to, its hard to make money doing it, no matter how good the figures are.

[sandpit]

Normally when a person criticizes a ride, i think the most important thing to mention what would have been the better option? The OP doesn't say what Robby SHOULD have done instead. Curlin was a bunch of lengths back in a big field, i'm not sure what he could have done differently. He could have theoretically waited longer, but if you are riding an all time great horse the last thing you want to do as a rider is wait too long. If he waits too long and pulls the trigger and never reaches, he's REALLY criticized......i think to this day Pat Day is still hearing about some botched rides on Easy Goer because he waited too long to move.

People forget about the 'bad rides' where a jock moves too soon........you can't criticize for a jock giving his horse 'a shot'. Robby took a proactive stance .........as you should, with a great horse who's 4-5.

Very good point; who knows which factors got him beat? Being outside shouldn't have hurt; Midnight Lute was about 10 wide...
Nobody in recent memory was ever as patient as Pat Day, but man he could drive you nuts...as much as I thought he didn't fit Easy Goer, he really messed up Forty Niner--galloping along in the middle of the backstretch watching Winning Colors like she was on a Sunday stroll.

[happycapper]

The ride didn't do him in.
Curlin is just way too muscular for any synthetic surface.

[Fingal]

Standing by where the tunnel starts that leads to the track & looking at how tight Albarado was, if you gave him a Lump of Coal, you'd get back a Diamond. And I'm sure everyone here can figure out how...........:eek:

[v j stauffer]

I capped the race and bet it to have Tiago run down Curlin in the final strides. I was right! Just didn't think it was going to be for third. I think if the race had been run on dirt the result would have been different. But that's not sour grapes. I knew before the race it wasn't dirt and didn't consider that Pro-Ride might really help the euros. This game is always about adjusting and trying to adapt. I'll do that and be ready to fire away again next year!

[Imriledup]

Midnight lute was as wide as Curlin and no one criticized GO GO for his ride on Lute. Did GOGO ride a bad race? Did GOGO move too soon or too late?

Did Mike Smith move premature on Stardom Bound? He made that same wide sweep, but he hung on to win...............same thing with Zenyatta, she made that big move......did she move too soon? Or, too late?

again, its really easy to criticize a ride if the horse doesn't win.

[v j stauffer]

Midnight lute was as wide as Curlin and no one criticized GO GO for his ride on Lute. Did GOGO ride a bad race? Did GOGO move too soon or too late?

Did Mike Smith move premature on Stardom Bound? He made that same wide sweep, but he hung on to win...............same thing with Zenyatta, she made that big move......did she move too soon? Or, too late?

again, its really easy to criticize a ride if the horse doesn't win.

Sharp post.

[JustRalph]

I capped the race and bet it to have Tiago run down Curlin in the final strides. I was right! Just didn't think it was going to be for third. I think if the race had been run on dirt the result would have been different. But that's not sour grapes. I knew before the race it wasn't dirt and didn't consider that Pro-Ride might really help the euros. This game is always about adjusting and trying to adapt. I'll do that and be ready to fire away again next year!

I am wondering how overbet the Euros will be next year...........?

always looking for a angle............... :lol:

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm getting a little tired of reading about Tiago being some sort of litmus test that it was the SURFACE that got Curlin beat. It's as if Tiago is some sort of horrible horse that has no right being in the same zip code as Curlin.

Here's a few facts to digest (I posted similar in another thread, but will repost here):

Tiago's BEST LIFETIME Beyer speed figure came on the DIRT! He ran a 110 when he won the Oaklawn Handicap in April.

Curlin has run the following Beyers on dirt since returning from Dubai (110, 112, 111).

Now, you tell me. Do you honestly believe Tiago has no business beating Curlin when those Beyer figures are examined objectively?

Tiago had every right to be within striking distance of Curlin, EVEN IF THE BC WERE RUN OVER A DIRT SURFACE.

[sammy the sage]

Curlin...HAD a VERY hard time in his LAST TRUE dirt race...(PLUG's I might add)....as a 4yr. old...the writing was on the wall...

no Barry Bonds/Roger Clemons JUICE...NO super-horse...

Beside's...all 3 Euro's figs....were higher coming in...

all this said...if he come's back on dirt...then we'll see...

[Charlie D]

I'm getting a little tired of reading about Tiago being some sort of litmus test that it was the SURFACE that got Curlin beat. It's as if Tiago is some sort of horrible horse that has no right being in the same zip code as Curlin.

Here's a few facts to digest (I posted similar in another thread, but will repost here):

Tiago's BEST LIFETIME Beyer speed figure came on the DIRT! He ran a 110 when he won the Oaklawn Handicap in April.

Curlin has run the following Beyers on dirt since returning from Dubai (110, 112, 111).

Now, you tell me. Do you honestly believe Tiago has no business beating Curlin when those Beyer figures are examined objectively?

Tiago had every right to be within striking distance of Curlin, EVEN IF THE BC WERE RUN OVER A DIRT SURFACE.



So it looks like Curlin was just beaten by better on day and not the surface

[Charlie D]

Ravens Pass 115 (Ian Beyer)
Henerythenavigator113 (Ian Beyer)
Taigo 110
Curlin 112



Now i might be wrong, but it looked to me like Curlin's jockey gave away 3rd by giving up

So, if i'm correct, it would have been

RP 115
Henry 113
Curlin 112
Taigo 110



So Curlin has finished where he probably should have and this blaming the surface, Curlin is better with roids, it's Euro racing stuff is rubbish

[ghostyapper]

I'm getting a little tired of reading about Tiago being some sort of litmus test that it was the SURFACE that got Curlin beat. It's as if Tiago is some sort of horrible horse that has no right being in the same zip code as Curlin.

Here's a few facts to digest (I posted similar in another thread, but will repost here):

Tiago's BEST LIFETIME Beyer speed figure came on the DIRT! He ran a 110 when he won the Oaklawn Handicap in April.

Curlin has run the following Beyers on dirt since returning from Dubai (110, 112, 111).

Now, you tell me. Do you honestly believe Tiago has no business beating Curlin when those Beyer figures are examined objectively?

Tiago had every right to be within striking distance of Curlin, EVEN IF THE BC WERE RUN OVER A DIRT SURFACE.

Hmm so you are comparing a horses LIFETIME BEST beyer that he achieved back in april to curlin's last 3 as proof that he's as good or better? Yea that sure is looking at it objectively :D

I like tiago and think he's a good horse. The BB fans said I was crazy over the summer when I rated him ahead of BB. That being said his last 3 races were subpar and not close to Curlin's last 3. But you want to use his best beyer achieved back in april not to Curlin's races in the spring (which blow his lifetime best away by the way) but to Curlin's recent races as some sort of evidence to suggest tiago finishing ahead of Curlin was not a surprise. :bang:

[oddsmaven]

Curlin has lost a step and hes been that way since he got back from Dubai. i dont think it would of mattered if he moved when he was suppose to he still would of got beat.
I agree totally with Mineshaft...I hoped he'd win but he didn't seem close to invincible (even on dirt) off of his recent efforts...you can bank on there being excuses whenever a horse loses, so I get tired of doing this: :rolleyes: - whenever they are given; especially for a perfectly acceptable ride like that.

Curlin looked like he might well win heading into the stretch until the winner emerged...once collared, he stopped giving his utmost which is not unusual for a horse, so i don't make anything of a couple of others catching him soon thereafter...don't know if anyone agrees with this, but I think he probaly wins without Ravens Pass discouraging him.

[PaceAdvantage]

Hmm so you are comparing a horses LIFETIME BEST beyer that he achieved back in april to curlin's last 3 as proof that he's as good or better? Yea that sure is looking at it objectively :D

I like tiago and think he's a good horse. The BB fans said I was crazy over the summer when I rated him ahead of BB. That being said his last 3 races were subpar and not close to Curlin's last 3. But you want to use his best beyer achieved back in april not to Curlin's races in the spring (which blow his lifetime best away by the way) but to Curlin's recent races as some sort of evidence to suggest tiago finishing ahead of Curlin was not a surprise. :bang:Spin it anyway you wish. The objective among us will simply agree that Tiago isn't some out of the clouds "how the hell did he do that" kind of surprise when he finished ahead of Curlin.

That's all I was saying. You even admit yourself that Tiago is a good horse. My reply was targeted at those who think Tiago has absolutely no right to even share the same air as Curlin.

And if you examine Tiago's PPs close enough, you will see he has shown a seven point improvement in the past 2nd time off the layoff.

In Jan08 he ran a 93 Beyer in the San Fernando off a 2+ month layoff, then ran a 100 next time out.

In the Goodwood this year in September, his last start before the BC, Tiago ran a 103 coming off a 3 month layoff. A seven point improvement puts him around 110 again, his lifetime best, and right in Curlin territory.

[WinterTriangle]

So it looks like Curlin was just beaten by better on day and not the surface

I'm agree cause I'm weary of the surface excuse. In terms of both handicappers and horses.

Let's look at human Olympic runners. We constantly improve shoes and surface as scientific advances are made, but NONE of that can make an athlete perform better than his potential.

Ato Boldon is one of the best sprinters in the world and he would beat most runners if you tied soft moss around his feet, or made him wear wooden clogs. The goal of giving him a good running shoe or special-surface track is merely to minimize inefficiencies and reduce injury. That's ALL.

The key lies in training a horse or athlete up to his/her potential.

[asH]

All I know is that of Curlin's last 3 races, Albarado didnt have Curlin in decent position for a chance to win in the ManOWar, pushed Curlin into the pace to early in the Woodward hence the 14 sec last furlong, and started Curlin's drive too early(after 4f) in the Jockey Gold Cup, in races Curlin should have won by open lengths..for me he was a bad bet, not for the horse who I feel could've gone down without question as one of the greats ..... if , in my opinion, had another jock...I've stated this idea before.

[joanied]

pretty much everyone has stated the why's and just about every post makes good sence.
Curlin's defeat was 'all of the above'... a tired horse (I don't care what they say, the Dubia trip takes lots out of them) that has been running on guts & class since he got back from Dubia...Robby did move a little soon, but in watching the race again, I beleive he felt he had to get Curlin going because the horse was not running comfortably...so the Pro Ride was detrimental to him, he doesn't like it, for whatever reason. Not sure how Tiago got by him, but I had Tiago in my picks, beleive this is a very good horse, and maybe Robby didn't think 3rd place was in jeopardy until Tiago went by...I also wonder if Curlin didn't like being 'swallowed up' about 100 yards from the wire...he made his move outside, but didn't finish outside...he had horses all around him.
It was all just too much for him to overcome... I think we need to wait and see what they decide to do with him now...IMO, I beleive Jackson will want to run him one more time on DIRT in a top class race and retire Curlin on a winning note...I think we all know that Asmussen didn't want to run Curlin in the BC...it was all Jackson, right or wrong. I beleive they'll rest him and run him once more in late Nov or Dec. And if I'm right, I hope it's in the USA, not Japan or some such place.
He still is a Champion and can still be mentioned with the greats!!