Curlin's Stud Value Should Plummet

[Cangamble]

How can anyone justify a high stud fee is the daddy couldn't handle the surface of the future of horse racing?

Stud fees are already dropping as we head into a world depression and big spending owners are dying more than they are being created.

And polytracks definitely won't attract newcomers to the sport. Horses from across the pond who run on grass and never tried non grass sparkle over dirt horses and even poly horses. Speed handicappers like myself might as well use darts.

[cj]

I'm not so sure the surface is the future. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. If it is, the tracks can all start ripping out the turf courses. They won't be needed any longer.

[Cangamble]

I'm not so sure the surface is the future. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. If it is, the tracks can all start ripping out the turf courses. They won't be needed any longer.
Any track doing resurfacing is going synthetic. I can't see going back just for the sake of the bettor if injuries are less on the new surfaces.

Another thing, I'm reading Bill Finley's book right now and early on he says it is a misconception that turf horses are more suited to poly than dirt horses are.
I'm lucky I didn't go nuts today using Finley's advise.:)

[juanepstein]

its been known for a few months now that the euros were gonna dominate.

plain in simple our stock sucks this year.

[Charlie D]

There is no disgrace in being beaten by a Top Class horse and even less when the Top Class horse that beats you is getting a Weight for Age allowance

[jognlope]

No it shouldn't hurt. Who can top him? Someone who comes along fresh who hasn't flown all over creation and been battling out for 2 years? No way, Curlin's stud fee should be fine.

[juanepstein]

No it shouldn't hurt. Who can top him? Someone who comes along fresh who hasn't flown all over creation and been battling out for 2 years? No way, Curlin's stud fee should be fine.

agree,gonna have no problem getting money.

it will only go down if his crop isnt producing winners.

[Valuist]

How can anyone justify a high stud fee is the daddy couldn't handle the surface of the future of horse racing?

Stud fees are already dropping as we head into a world depression and big spending owners are dying more than they are being created.

And polytracks definitely won't attract newcomers to the sport. Horses from across the pond who run on grass and never tried non grass sparkle over dirt horses and even poly horses. Speed handicappers like myself might as well use darts.

You can't take away what he's accomplished. He's already won the Breeders Cup Classic, the Preakness, the Dubai World Cup and was beaten in a photo in the Belmont. He's also Gr 1 placed on the grass. So he didn't handle racing on a phony surface.....if synthetic is the future, and I don't believe it is, racing is in deep trouble.

[startngate]

The more interesting thing will be to see if he runs once more this year. After today's loss, Zenyatta would likely be voted HOY, so the big question is will they take another shot with him on dirt? If he comes out of the race OK, will he show at Churchill or in Japan?

[Valuist]

The more interesting thing will be to see if he runs once more this year. After today's loss, Zenyatta would likely be voted HOY, so the big question is will they take another shot with him on dirt? If he comes out of the race OK, will he show at Churchill or in Japan?

IF he is to run another race, I would guess it would be in the Clark at Churchill.

[ghostyapper]

IF he is to run another race, I would guess it would be in the Clark at Churchill.

I think japan is a more likely option, thats if he's comes out of this one in good order.

[CryingForTheHorses]

How can anyone justify a high stud fee is the daddy couldn't handle the surface of the future of horse racing?

Stud fees are already dropping as we head into a world depression and big spending owners are dying more than they are being created.

And polytracks definitely won't attract newcomers to the sport. Horses from across the pond who run on grass and never tried non grass sparkle over dirt horses and even poly horses. Speed handicappers like myself might as well use darts.


Like always you bash everything and anything!!..This horse has nothing to prove any longer and will command a handsome stud fee.Im sick and tired of people like you who think they are gods word on anything.Im sure if this was your horse he would be a saint!!!..Curlin has done nothing wrong except satisfy you.Im sure if he did win you would find something wrong. Kudos for Mr Jackson for letting him run and kudos to his trainer and the barn team for the great work on this horse.

[jognlope]

I knew he was too tired, but they did it for the sport, kudos to them. Curlin is a champ.

[PaceAdvantage]

After today's loss, Zenyatta would likely be voted HOY, so the big question is will they take another shot with him on dirt? If he comes out of the race OK, will he show at Churchill or in Japan?So, we're going to vote Zenyatta HOY now?

I don't know....we have a Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Haskell winner who is a multi-surface winner and beat older horses (on turf)...

We have a Dubai Cup/Woodward/Jockey Club Gold Cup winner who finished second in a Grade 1 Turf race.

Finally, we're supposed to overlook these two and vote for an undefeated filly who only stepped outside of California and its artificial surfaces once (yes, it was a very impressive step-out, I will grant you that). Never faced the boyz.

Tough for me to give it to Zenyatta over the two mentioned above. But then again, all three have holes in their resume in my opinion. Tough choice overall.

[OTM Al]

More silliness. If you were cloning him, your statement might have some sense, but you are talking about a proven, sound, physical specimen that is good on the turf/synth and very good on the dirt. Mate him with a turf oriented dam and I think you may have good results. He's worth 10 times the stud fee of a horse like Big Brown based on his physical soundness alone.

[peakpros]

So, we're going to vote Zenyatta HOY now?

I don't know....we have a Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Haskell winner who is a multi-surface winner and beat older horses (on turf)...

We have a Dubai Cup/Woodward/Jockey Club Gold Cup winner who finished second in a Grade 1 Turf race.

Finally, we're supposed to overlook these two and vote for an undefeated filly who only stepped outside of California and its artificial surfaces once (yes, it was a very impressive step-out, I will grant you that). Never faced the boyz.

Tough for me to give it to Zenyatta over the two mentioned above. But then again, all three have holes in their resume in my opinion. Tough choice overall.


good point...a very tough choice....not sure which way i would vote at this time...

[Cangamble]

Like always you bash everything and anything!!..This horse has nothing to prove any longer and will command a handsome stud fee.Im sick and tired of people like you who think they are gods word on anything.Im sure if this was your horse he would be a saint!!!..Curlin has done nothing wrong except satisfy you.Im sure if he did win you would find something wrong. Kudos for Mr Jackson for letting him run and kudos to his trainer and the barn team for the great work on this horse.
I'm trying to change things for the better. I'm not an apologizing cheerleader like you.
Yes, Jackson should be commended for letting the horse run, but I'm being realistic, he took a gamble and lost at least a bit, as people looking to spend big bucks on stud fee will look at Curlin's loss on an artificial surface as a negative. And rightfully so.
If you are "thinking" that this race won't affect his stud fee or the amount of mares he gets, you have your head in the sand.

[Cangamble]

More silliness. If you were cloning him, your statement might have some sense, but you are talking about a proven, sound, physical specimen that is good on the turf/synth and very good on the dirt. Mate him with a turf oriented dam and I think you may have good results. He's worth 10 times the stud fee of a horse like Big Brown based on his physical soundness alone.
He is worth more than Big Brown, but he isn't worth as much today as he was yesterday. That is my point.

[cj]

So, we're going to vote Zenyatta HOY now?

I don't know....we have a Kentucky Derby/Preakness/Haskell winner who is a multi-surface winner and beat older horses (on turf)...

We have a Dubai Cup/Woodward/Jockey Club Gold Cup winner who finished second in a Grade 1 Turf race.

Finally, we're supposed to overlook these two and vote for an undefeated filly who only stepped outside of California and its artificial surfaces once (yes, it was a very impressive step-out, I will grant you that). Never faced the boyz.

Tough for me to give it to Zenyatta over the two mentioned above. But then again, all three have holes in their resume in my opinion. Tough choice overall.

I think Big Brown has no shot at Horse of the Year. His turf win is a phony as we all know. He looked pretty good, but it was a race written especially for him and the competition was far from top caliber.

Curlin's Dubai races shouldn't really count. Do they? I don't know. If they do not, is Foster/Woodward/JCGC and off the board in the big race good enough? I guess the second in a real turf race adds a little.

Zenyatta? Brilliant, what else can you say. I wish she had run in the Classic. I would have bet her. She beat every other horse by summarily dismissing all challengers. If Favorite Trick can be horse of the year, surely she can. In the US, we distinguish a lot more between the sexes in our big races. I don't think we should do so as much, but we do, so why penalize her?

[peakpros]

I think Big Brown has no shot at Horse of the Year. His turf win is a phony as we all know. He looked pretty good, but it was a race written especially for him and the competition was far from top caliber.

Curlin's Dubai races shouldn't really count. Do they? I don't know. If they do not, is Foster/Woodward/JCGC and off the board in the big race good enough? I guess the second in a real turf race adds a little.

Zenyatta? Brilliant, what else can you say. I wish she had run in the Classic. I would have bet her. She beat every other horse by summarily dismissing all challengers. If Favorite Trick can be horse of the year, surely she can. In the US, we distinguish a lot more between the sexes in our big races. I don't think we should do so as much, but we do, so why penalize her?

I have to disagree with you when you say BB has no shot. He captured many fans and that may be enough to swing the votes.

Although I think the connections may work against him. Fairly or unfairly.

[cj]

I have to disagree with you when you say BB has no shot. He captured many fans and that may be enough to swing the votes.

Although I think the connections may work against him. Fairly or unfairly.

I actually meant to type that and got going and lost my train of thought. I think that is the main reason he won't win.

[JustRalph]

Can, I gotta agree with Al here. Don't forget about the dam. To my thinking and from what I have read, the Dam passes on good Turf Ped and if so, a nice Turf mare could come up with one hell of a runner on poly or anywhere out of Curlin.

If I had a nice Mare who was good on turf........ I would jump on the bandwagon early.......... but then again....... I will say it again......... I don't know shit about breeding.........but logic I think agrees with me.

[Tom]

BB - can't be HOY, there is a death threat against his owner if he wind it! :rolleyes:
Why am I reminded of Steinbrener getting mugged in the elevator on the eve of the Yankee crash and burn???

HOY - who has done as much as Curlin all year long? No one come close. Zenny never met the boys....you are not HOY hitting off the woman's tees.
BB.....puleeeeze. Putz of the year, disappintment fo the year, dodger of the year, maybe.

No one has matched Curlin's record this year. He loses his only turf race to a previous BC Turf winner and beats another at the same time, goes halfway around the world to win it's richest race, comes back nails afew G1's here, then makes a monster move only to fall short in one stretch run. No one has matched his record of a year.

[Shenanigans]

I'm trying to change things for the better. I'm not an apologizing cheerleader like you.
Yes, Jackson should be commended for letting the horse run, but I'm being realistic, he took a gamble and lost at least a bit, as people looking to spend big bucks on stud fee will look at Curlin's loss on an artificial surface as a negative. And rightfully so.
If you are "thinking" that this race won't affect his stud fee or the amount of mares he gets, you have your head in the sand.

This race won't affect his stud fee. He didn't run up the track. He finished an honest fourth. He did get out run - by some very nice, fresh horses. I don't remember too many horses that came back from Dubai and continued to put in some good races. Curlin is an honest, consistent, sound horse. I would send my mares to him in a heart beat.

[JustRalph]

What the hell is it about that Dubai trip that slows em down when they come back?

[PaceAdvantage]

It's such bull that Big Brown is summarily thrown out of contention for HOY because of his name and his connections.

Any other 3yo with his credentials in a year like this would be a SERIOUS contender for HOY.

But, we see in this thread (and again with Randy Moss and Joe Tessitore on ESPN when Jerry Bailey brought up BB into HOY conversation on the BC telecast), that people are just so eager to throw his name out the window when considering HOY.

Baloney I say.

Big Brown is a 3yo who won the Florida Derby, Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Haskell, all Grade 1 races. He won what would have been at least a Grade 2 race (had it been a graded event) on the turf against older horses and is seven for eight lifetime, his only loss coming in a Belmont Stakes filled with excuses from almost every angle (at least two of them legitimate).

Zenyatta has won four Grade 1s, Big Brown has won four Grade 1s, and Curlin has won four Grade 1s (three if you don't count Dubai).

I realize Zanyatta has a serious claim to HOY in a year such as this, but to just throw Big Brown out of the mix willy nilly is willful ignorance at its best.

[sammy the sage]

PLEASE...every-one know's BB beat a bunch of stiff's/triple A ball...ie...WORST 3 yr. old crop in many years.....

It's like a Big 10 school playing for the nat'l title...looks penn/pansy st...get's to POSTERized this year...the BEST out-of-conference win...Wisc 13-10...over friggin Fresno st...PLEASE.

So while BB...might have won some grade 1's...WHO did HE really beat...PLEASE...

[PaceAdvantage]

You write as if Curlin and Zenyatta were facing Seattle Slew and Go For Wand all year long.

Here's who finished directly behind Curlin this year:

Wanderin Boy, Merchant Marine, Past the Point, Einstein (dirt) and Barcola.

Wow. What a crew. The finest group of older horses ever assembled I tells ya!

[sammy the sage]

I was wrong...

pansy state beat the MIGHTY O.S.U. beaver's from the conference of 1 bully and 10 wimps... :lol: :D

But back to topic at hand...Yeap yore right as usual P.A....

Curlin beat...Wanderin Boy, Merchant Marine,, Einstein...and WHAT did BB beat...REFRESH my memory...PLEASE...

Oh...and those BEATEN foe's of BB...WHAT exactly HAVE they done...YOU can refresh my memory there as well!!!

:lol: :D ;)

[DeanT]

I would vote for Z. She sends tingles down the spine when she runs and she never looks remotely close to beaten.

[happycapper]

Like always you bash everything and anything!!..This horse has nothing to prove any longer and will command a handsome stud fee.Im sick and tired of people like you who think they are gods word on anything.Im sure if this was your horse he would be a saint!!!..Curlin has done nothing wrong except satisfy you.Im sure if he did win you would find something wrong. Kudos for Mr Jackson for letting him run and kudos to his trainer and the barn team for the great work on this horse.

Listen to you. Pompous doesn't begin to describe the tone of your post.
Looking at your training winning percentage here over the last few years, I'd keep the advice to a minimum.

[PaceAdvantage]

Curlin beat...Wanderin Boy, Merchant Marine,, Einstein...and WHAT did BB beat...REFRESH my memory...PLEASE...

Oh...and those BEATEN foe's of BB...WHAT exactly HAVE they done...YOU can refresh my memory there as well!!!

:lol: :D ;)Why can't we all simply admit that if BB were trained and owned by any other team, he would not be immediately thrown out of consideration by you for HOY in a year such as this one.

The triple crown and the BC Classic are the four biggest races on the American racing scene. Only one horse among the three we are discussing won ANY of these four races, and that's Big Brown, who won two of them.

Like I said, all three HOY contenders have holes in their resumes. BB should be given equal consideration along with Curlin and Zenyatta.

[sammy the sage]

"" that if BB were trained and owned by any other team, he would not be immediately thrown out of consideration by you"""

I never stated THAT as a CONSIDERATION anywhere's...nor IMPLIED...

Both team's used "ROIDS" early on................

Nice dodge of the question how-ever...

[PaceAdvantage]

I would caution you on your use of abbreviated foul language and brining politics into a horse racing thread. Both are against the TOS.

Your question was rhetorical and did not require my answer. We both know that the horses that finished behind BB haven't done much, but the same can be said for the horses that finished behind Curlin.

Past the Point? Tough one.

[sammy the sage]

"" your use of abbreviated foul language and brining politics into a horse racing thread. Both are against the TOS.''

My bad...will refrain from such in the future...too much wine...stll no excuse....

[jonnielu]

"" your use of abbreviated foul language and brining politics into a horse racing thread. Both are against the TOS.''

My bad...will refrain from such in the future...too much wine...stll no excuse....

BB beat all of the other horses that showed up in those races that he won in a rare manner. An expectation that one horse will likely emerge head and shoulders above the rest in any given crop... is an unrealistic expectation.

jdl

[MBourassa]

Listen to you. Pompous doesn't begin to describe the tone of your post.
Looking at your training winning percentage here over the last few years, I'd keep the advice to a minimum.

HappyCapper doesnt sound so happy.

McSchell_Racing is right. I dont wanna step out of bounds and offend people. But honestly horse players complain the most. Every little thing, tvg announcers, late changes in odds,small fields, tax and the list goes on. For once some one said something positive in this forum. Jess Jackson has been trying to help sport for a while. Jackson is starting to breed for distance, went to south america to buy brood mares.He wants to start breeding for distance not for speed. He kept curlin going for the sport and the fan base. And we all should be thankful for that. What does McSchell win percentage to have to do with anything? It doesnt.

And as far as curlins stud value dropping. It wont he is a great horse and accomplished a ton. He will turn out to be a great sire.

[DeanT]

Nice post here on HOY

http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/west_points/2008/10/about-horse-of-the-year-theres-neither-debate-nor-doubt.html

He thinks Z over Curlin is misguided. I disagree, but a nice post, imo.

As for CG's point, one can disagree, but to me (a poster I like in Tom) went over the line there. Tom, he makes an excellent point. The bloom is somewhat off the rose with Curlin, and many people have said that. It does not mean they hate racing, or want to see someone fail. I love Curlin but I agree with him. Earlier this year, he was 11-1 in the UK to win the Arc. He failed on turf in a sub par race here and did not even go. He was then chalk on synthetic in the BC and he failed there, too.

With wins or near misses in two races like the Arc and/or the BC he stamps himself as one of the all time greats. Unfortunately, he failed.

I wanted him to win both. I admire him, the owner and wanted him to do well. But this is a horse racing board and waxing poetic over a horse who has failed in two major tasks over the last three months is simply not going to happen. A lot of people are leaving the cheerleading to admiring Zenyatta or the Arc champ right now.

[JustRalph]

Every year they try to ignore the Kentucky Derby Winner............. What's new?

Every year I ask the same question.............if they could win just one race all year, what would it be? You know the answer.............

[sammy the sage]

"""Every year I ask the same question.............if they could win just one race all year, what would it be? You know the answer....""

ERGO...hence w/that reasoning...HOY should ALWAYS be a 3 yr. old EH? :rolleyes: :lol:

[CryingForTheHorses]

Listen to you. Pompous doesn't begin to describe the tone of your post.
Looking at your training winning percentage here over the last few years, I'd keep the advice to a minimum.


Pompous I hardly think so,Im sure other trainers wouldnt even give the cripples I have a shot at running again...Im very proud of my record which is
320-31-42-46. It may be only 10% but its also 38% ITM with earning of almost 600k...Not bad for cheap claimers that run every week.!!!...

[happycapper]

Pompous I hardly think so,Im sure other trainers wouldnt even give the cripples I have a shot at running again...Im very proud of my record which is
320-31-42-46. It may be only 10% but its also 38% ITM with earning of almost 600k...Not bad for cheap claimers that run every week.!!!...

Here's what I have on you for Calder and Gulfstream since August of 06:

293 starts

26 wins -9%
30 places -19%
38 shows -32%
24 fourths -40%

Average win odds of 13.3, and actually returning a small profit for the better who bets every one of your horses to win. Not bad, perhaps I was too harsh.
The percentages could be a little higher, but if you are running cripples, I can understand how they would be that low. So sorry for the critique.

[DeanT]

From a fella who follows trainers and their patterns I have no problem saying Tom is one of the good guys. If there were more like him, this game would be much more formful and better to play.

[JustRalph]

"""Every year I ask the same question.............if they could win just one race all year, what would it be? You know the answer....""

ERGO...hence w/that reasoning...HOY should ALWAYS be a 3 yr. old EH? :rolleyes: :lol:

I didn't say that. But whenever there is any argument about HOY, they always downplay the KY Derby winner like nobody gives a shit. When in reality, that race is everything to everybody. Until the winner gets beat in the Triple Crown.......they all get on the bandwagon. then suddenly it was just another day in May.............

[westny]

I didn't say that. But whenever there is any argument about HOY, they always downplay the KY Derby winner like nobody gives a shit. When in reality, that race is everything to everybody. Until the winner gets beat in the Triple Crown.......they all get on the bandwagon. then suddenly it was just another day in May.............

Agree 100%.

It is the management of the Breeders Cup that is responsible for the trend of "awarding an Eclipse to a horse who ran in the US once and won a BC race".
So if follows, by OCTOBER, the BC races are the ones that weight "the turf writers votes to BC winners". This year, they have a problem. Curlin lost.
So, Zenyatta probably gets it IF Curlin doesn't.

Big Brown should get the Eclipse. He won the most prestigeous 3-yr races this year....3 of them, he dominated. On turf too. But, BB will not get the Eclipse. Everyone 'hates his connections and "loves Sheriffs".

Zenyatta had no competition in any races. All the competition fled East this season to get away from Zenyatta. Zenyatta would be awarded an Eclipse based on her undefeated record against nobodys. Zenyatta ran all races (but 1)on her HOME track.
Never went to CD to run in the Oakes, Never ran in CCAO at Belmont, Alabama at Saratoga, etc. The toughest competition she faced was in the BC, on her home track, and she dominated there.
I think Zenyatta gets the Eclipse, but IF I had a vote...BB

[ghostyapper]

Big Brown should get the Eclipse. He won the most prestigeous 3-yr races this year....3 of them, he dominated. On turf too. But, BB will not get the Eclipse. Everyone 'hates his connections and "loves Sheriffs".


Not only did he not compete in the BC, but he didn't even compete in the travers, the best 3yo race of the second half of the year, and second most prestigious 3yo race of the year.

BB deserves an in the money finish for HOY but thats it

[sammy the sage]

Name an MVP athlete...in ANY sport...that didn't finish the last 3rd of a season...........

Yeah...thought so....case closed!

[PaceAdvantage]

Not only did he not compete in the BC, but he didn't even compete in the travers, the best 3yo race of the second half of the year, and second most prestigious 3yo race of the year.How much did BB beat the eventual Travers winner by in the Derby?

[Steve R]

Like always you bash everything and anything!!..This horse has nothing to prove any longer and will command a handsome stud fee.Im sick and tired of people like you who think they are gods word on anything.Im sure if this was your horse he would be a saint!!!..Curlin has done nothing wrong except satisfy you.Im sure if he did win you would find something wrong. Kudos for Mr Jackson for letting him run and kudos to his trainer and the barn team for the great work on this horse.

Slow down! A bit of objectivity instead of a defensive outburst might elevate the discussion.

From a historical perspective Curlin has little likelihood of being a major success as a sire. He was late developing, his sre is ageing and has never gotten a son even worth mentioning at stud and his female family is weak. That's not a formula for success even for a multiple Grade 1 winner.

Arguably Argentine-bred Invasor was a superior horse to Curlin with a better lifetime record and vritually identical lifetime earnings per start. He won as a two-year-old, captured the Uruguayan TC, the BC Classic over a better field than Curlin may have ever faced (until beaten by better European competition), the DWC (with a higher Racing Post Rating than Curlin's) and a total of nine Grade 1/Group 1 events on three continents (compared to Curlin's seven). He has a female family at least as stong if not stronger than Curlin's and his sire has gotten eleven champions in six countries. My speed figures indicate Invasor's Suburban and Whitney Handicaps were faster than any race ever run by Curlin. Yet he went to stud for just $35,000. Why should Curlin get more?

So what are we talking about here? An objective assessment of ability and stud potential or an American world view? In fact, one could argue that Raven's Pass is a better option than Curlin for Horse of the Year. After all, Raven's Pass not only easily defeated Curlin on a new surface for him as well, but his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was rated by the Racing Post as equal to Curlin's DWC. He handily defeated a dual English/Irish classic winner twice in a row, a classic winner which had previously beaten the Epsom Derby winner twice. Curlin hasn't had to deal with that quality of competion all year long.

Finally, whether the surface was the cause of Curlin's downfall is debatable. Even assuming it played to the strengths of turf horses, Curlin is bred for turf similarly to grass champions Soaring Free and English Channel, both, like Curlin, by Smart Strike and out of a Northern Dancer line mare. Clearly, despite his proven abilities on turf, Raven's Pass' American dirt pedigree didn't slow him down one bit. If the surface did affect Curlin, then that is a mark against him unless one is simply committed to finding an excuse. Frankly, I think he ran back to the form he showed in the Woodward and the JCGC where he was less than impressive defeating marginal Grade2/Grade 3 types. His has not been a Horse of the Year season. Both Raven's Pass and Zenyatta are more deserving IMO.

[ghostyapper]

How much did BB beat the eventual Travers winner by in the Derby?

14

Thats 10 lengths less than he beat Da'tara by in the fla derby. That sure helped him in the belmont eh? :D

[joanied]

I'm not so sure the surface is the future. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. If it is, the tracks can all start ripping out the turf courses. They won't be needed any longer.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

I think japan is a more likely option, thats if he's comes out of this one in good order.

I think they'll keep him home if they run him again...the Clark is a good spot. I think at least Steve A. knows another long flight isn't going to do Curlin any good...keep him home, let the American fans get to see him win one more time.

[joanied]

I knew he was too tired, but they did it for the sport, kudos to them. Curlin is a champ.

I agree, and posted that I think his loss in the Classic is a combination of the Pro Ride and a horse that has way too many miles under his belt...I think since his return from Dubia he's been running on guts & class.
He IS a Champion, and one of the best we'll see...ever!!

[joanied]

I have to disagree with you when you say BB has no shot. He captured many fans and that may be enough to swing the votes.

Although I think the connections may work against him. Fairly or unfairly.

Trouble is....the fans don't vote...at least they can't cast a vote that actually counts towards the Eclipse awards.

[joanied]

Slow down! A bit of objectivity instead of a defensive outburst might elevate the discussion.

From a historical perspective Curlin has little likelihood of being a major success as a sire. He was late developing, his sre is ageing and has never gotten a son even worth mentioning at stud and his female family is weak. That's not a formula for success even for a multiple Grade 1 winner.

Arguably Argentine-bred Invasor was a superior horse to Curlin with a better lifetime record and vritually identical lifetime earnings per start. He won as a two-year-old, captured the Uruguayan TC, the BC Classic over a better field than Curlin may have ever faced (until beaten by better European competition), the DWC (with a higher Racing Post Rating than Curlin's) and a total of nine Grade 1/Group 1 events on three continents (compared to Curlin's seven). He has a female family at least as stong if not stronger than Curlin's and his sire has gotten eleven champions in six countries. My speed figures indicate Invasor's Suburban and Whitney Handicaps were faster than any race ever run by Curlin. Yet he went to stud for just $35,000. Why should Curlin get more?

So what are we talking about here? An objective assessment of ability and stud potential or an American world view? In fact, one could argue that Raven's Pass is a better option than Curlin for Horse of the Year. After all, Raven's Pass not only easily defeated Curlin on a new surface for him as well, but his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was rated by the Racing Post as equal to Curlin's DWC. He handily defeated a dual English/Irish classic winner twice in a row, a classic winner which had previously beaten the Epsom Derby winner twice. Curlin hasn't had to deal with that quality of competion all year long.

Finally, whether the surface was the cause of Curlin's downfall is debatable. Even assuming it played to the strengths of turf horses, Curlin is bred for turf similarly to grass champions Soaring Free and English Channel, both, like Curlin, by Smart Strike and out of a Northern Dancer line mare. Clearly, despite his proven abilities on turf, Raven's Pass' American dirt pedigree didn't slow him down one bit. If the surface did affect Curlin, then that is a mark against him unless one is simply committed to finding an excuse. Frankly, I think he ran back to the form he showed in the Woodward and the JCGC where he was less than impressive defeating marginal Grade2/Grade 3 types. His has not been a Horse of the Year season. Both Raven's Pass and Zenyatta are more deserving IMO.

Excellent post:ThmbUp:
Curlin may or may not become a great stallion...as mentioned, his pedigree is a little 'light'... but if one looks through the 'history' books on sires you can plainly see that sometimes a great sire dosen't have a great pedigree and sometimes a stallion with a strong pedigree flops as a stallion...IMO, it has much to do with the individual horse...time can only tell us the answer to wether or not Curlin, or any of the big guns from this yearwill make great stallions.
I also think when he is retired, Curlin's stud fee will be around $50,000...Jackson ain't a greedy man, and he'll want the best mares possible to fill Curlin's book.

As for HoY... I doubt BB will be considered...but he'll have a lock on 3 yr old colt.
It'll be Curlin or Zenyatta and if I could vote...the lady 'Z' gets mine...even facing tougher competition, she'd have still got a perfect season, IMO.

Also...the very fact that the voters give horses an Eclipse awards off one race still makes me so mad :mad: ...they have got to consider the entire season...if Raven's Pass :faint: gets the HoY award, no one would be able to calm be down.

[Steve R]

...As for HoY... I doubt BB will be considered...but he'll have a lock on 3 yr old colt.

It'll be Curlin or Zenyatta and if I could vote...the lady 'Z' gets mine...even facing tougher competition, she'd have still got a perfect season, IMO.

Also...the very fact that the voters give horses an Eclipse awards off one race still makes me so mad :mad: ...they have got to consider the entire season...if Raven's Pass :faint: gets the HoY award, no one would be able to calm be down.

I agree with you about Zenyatta, although I wouldn't downplay the quality of her competition. It was arguably better than what Curlin faced until the BC Classic, and that includes the DWC. Collectively, fillies and mares like Ginger Punch, Hystericalady, Tough Tiz's Sis, Cocoa Beach et al are a solid group.

I don't agree with you about Raven's Pass, however, although one race in the US shouldn't be enough for HOY unless it is overpowering in itself and is backed up by the horse's foreign performances. I think that is exactly the case to be made for Raven's Pass. His best race prior to the BC Classic, the QE II Stakes, was rated as high as Curlin's DWC. His relative form puts him above two UK classic winners. One of those two ran second to him in the BC Classic and both of them simply handled the best American classic distance horses in training, AWS and dirt. I don't know what more he could have done this year except go undefeated. Certainly he would have beaten Zenyatta as well, so what's left? We'll never know what Big Brown might have done, but considering his affinity for turf and its apparent translatability to Pro-Ride, a return to Florida Derby or Kentucky Derby form might well have given him the BC Classic win and HOY would be a no-brainer.

Personally, I would most likely vote for Zenyatta, too, even though Raven's Pass was probably the best horse to race in North America in 2008.

[ghostyapper]

Slow down! A bit of objectivity instead of a defensive outburst might elevate the discussion.

From a historical perspective Curlin has little likelihood of being a major success as a sire. He was late developing, his sre is ageing and has never gotten a son even worth mentioning at stud and his female family is weak. That's not a formula for success even for a multiple Grade 1 winner.

Arguably Argentine-bred Invasor was a superior horse to Curlin with a better lifetime record and vritually identical lifetime earnings per start. He won as a two-year-old, captured the Uruguayan TC, the BC Classic over a better field than Curlin may have ever faced (until beaten by better European competition), the DWC (with a higher Racing Post Rating than Curlin's) and a total of nine Grade 1/Group 1 events on three continents (compared to Curlin's seven). He has a female family at least as stong if not stronger than Curlin's and his sire has gotten eleven champions in six countries. My speed figures indicate Invasor's Suburban and Whitney Handicaps were faster than any race ever run by Curlin. Yet he went to stud for just $35,000. Why should Curlin get more?

So what are we talking about here? An objective assessment of ability and stud potential or an American world view? In fact, one could argue that Raven's Pass is a better option than Curlin for Horse of the Year. After all, Raven's Pass not only easily defeated Curlin on a new surface for him as well, but his Queen Elizabeth II Stakes was rated by the Racing Post as equal to Curlin's DWC. He handily defeated a dual English/Irish classic winner twice in a row, a classic winner which had previously beaten the Epsom Derby winner twice. Curlin hasn't had to deal with that quality of competion all year long.

Finally, whether the surface was the cause of Curlin's downfall is debatable. Even assuming it played to the strengths of turf horses, Curlin is bred for turf similarly to grass champions Soaring Free and English Channel, both, like Curlin, by Smart Strike and out of a Northern Dancer line mare. Clearly, despite his proven abilities on turf, Raven's Pass' American dirt pedigree didn't slow him down one bit. If the surface did affect Curlin, then that is a mark against him unless one is simply committed to finding an excuse. Frankly, I think he ran back to the form he showed in the Woodward and the JCGC where he was less than impressive defeating marginal Grade2/Grade 3 types. His has not been a Horse of the Year season. Both Raven's Pass and Zenyatta are more deserving IMO.

You make some interesting points but some of your points I need to address.

Its obvious he will not be the cream of the cream when it comes to pricing for first time sires. If he were, he never would have run as a 4yo, I don't care what Jackson says about the fans. But this idea that he hurt his stallion reputation by not winning his G1 turf race or the bc classic on synthetic is just ridiculous. What he showed in those 2 races is he has tremendous ability on surfaces other than dirt. Obviously he is not as good as he is on dirt but that does not take away from his stallion prospects. How many G1 turf races did dynaformer win by the way?

Saying he is bred for turf does not automatically mean he will perform as well on it as he does on dirt.

Concerning him running to the same form he did in the woodward and jcgc that is pretty hard to suggest considering his figures were considerably lower in the bc and his turf race than those 2 dirt races. If you really believe that I'd say you more than anyone is the one just looking for an excuse.

And I don't know what formula you use to make your figures but if you had Invasors Suburban and Whitney (photo with sun king) faster than any race Curlin has ever run, I'd say its time to go back to the drawing board with your figures and in a hurry.

[Steve R]

...What he showed in those 2 races is he has tremendous ability on surfaces other than dirt....

Concerning him running to the same form he did in the woodward and jcgc that is pretty hard to suggest considering his figures were considerably lower in the bc and his turf race than those 2 dirt races. If you really believe that I'd say you more than anyone is the one just looking for an excuse.

And I don't know what formula you use to make your figures but if you had Invasors Suburban and Whitney (photo with sun king) faster than any race Curlin has ever run, I'd say its time to go back to the drawing board with your figures and in a hurry.

Getting dusted on turf by a horse that ran next to last in the BC Turf despite a history of strong performances following a layoff is hardly a demonstration of "tremendous" ability. Getting dusted by two three-year-old milers which had never before raced on anything but grass is hardly a demonstration of "tremendous" ability. But, hey, maybe we just have different standards.

Excuses? Working hard to beat marginal G2/G3 types and then getting whipped by legitimate G1 horses, albeit mere three-year-olds, seems pretty formful. Interesting, though, that Curlin made the big move, looked an easy winner at the top of the stretch and then chucked it when challenged. Isn't backing down typical formful behavior when a horse is challenged by a superior individual?

As for figures, I assume you made a similar suggestion to Ragozin when he announced that Big Brown's Derby was better than Secretariat's. I'm sure Len is hard at work revising his methodology right now.

FWIW, my figures incorporate pace, final time and track speed into a single number paralleling total energy output from start to finish. There is more to understanding the quality of a performance than final time. Perhaps that's a concept you hadn't considered. In any case, if you truly believe Curlin is a better individual than Invasor, you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

[ghostyapper]

Getting dusted on turf by a horse that ran next to last in the BC Turf despite a history of strong performances following a layoff is hardly a demonstration of "tremendous" ability. Getting dusted by two three-year-old milers which had never before raced on anything but grass is hardly a demonstration of "tremendous" ability. But, hey, maybe we just have different standards..

Yes we have different standards. As a breeder, if I see the worlds best dirt horse be competitive in G1 events on turf and synthetics, I don't think any less of him. You however expect him to be the worlds best horse on every single surface, otherwise his stud value takes a hit. Once again how many G1 wins for dynaformer on the turf?


Excuses? Working hard to beat marginal G2/G3 types and then getting whipped by legitimate G1 horses, albeit mere three-year-olds, seems pretty formful. Interesting, though, that Curlin made the big move, looked an easy winner at the top of the stretch and then chucked it when challenged. Isn't backing down typical formful behavior when a horse is challenged by a superior individual?

On the one hand you like to use speed figures but in this case you want to ignore them since they don't help your argument. How can you explain that in his last 7 races, his 2 lowest figures came on non-dirt tracks? Is it really that in those 2 non dirt races he just happened to go up against his stiffest competition? Don't buy it? Good neither do I.

As for figures, I assume you made a similar suggestion to Ragozin when he announced that Big Brown's Derby was better than Secretariat's. I'm sure Len is hard at work revising his methodology right now.

FWIW, my figures incorporate pace, final time and track speed into a single number paralleling total energy output from start to finish. There is more to understanding the quality of a performance than final time. Perhaps that's a concept you hadn't considered. In any case, if you truly believe Curlin is a better individual than Invasor, you are certainly entitled to your opinion.

Speed figures are not only based on final time? Really? I had no clue. ;)

Congrats that you make your own figures. These are the first one's that I heard of that have Invasor's whitney higher than any curlin lifetime race. Forgive me if I'm a little skeptical. Interesting note that you bring up red rocks poor BC turf showing as proof to discredit Curlin's turf performance. Then a few sentences later you are stating how Invasor's whitney was so great when it came in a photo with sun king who was a g2/g3 animal and a complete non factor in his bc performance.

I think you really need to decide how you want to knock curlin. On the one hand you are saying he's not a good non dirt horse and in the next you are contradicting yourself saying that he ran similiar form in the bc as he did in the jcgc despite the fact that his speed figures were lower for the race.

[Steve R]

Yes we have different standards. As a breeder, if I see the worlds best dirt horse be competitive in G1 events on turf and synthetics, I don't think any less of him. You however expect him to be the worlds best horse on every single surface, otherwise his stud value takes a hit. Once again how many G1 wins for dynaformer on the turf?


World's best dirt horse? And we conclude that from a 4 1/4 length win in the Foster over Einstein, a high class turf runner which I believe had never before won a graded race on dirt, from a 1 1/4 length win in the Woodward over something called Past the Point which had never even placed in a graded race and from a 3/4 length win in the JCGC over an ageing Wanderin Boy without a major win in more than a year and which had never won a G1 nor placed in a 10f graded race? That certainly doesn't say much about the state of dirt horses, does it? Apparently being the best is a dubious honor. On the other hand, Raven's Pass' pedigree screams American dirt, so I'll speculate he would have defeated Curlin on dirt, sand or concrete simply because he is a superior individual. We'll never know, although the suspicion lingers.

And why is it I should care about what Dynaformer did on the turf? He was a nice graded stakes-winning colt with a very strong turf pedigree by one of the world's premier sires of sires and from an outstanding G1 family. He equaled the 9f inner dirt track record at Aqueduct and set a new turf course record for 12f at Keeneland. I guess that makes him both fast and versatile. Overall, very good credentials to be a successful sire even if he does exceed expectations. Belmont winner Stage Door Johnny never raced on grass yet developed into one of the greatest American mile and a half turf sires of the 20th century. I assume you had a point.

On the one hand you like to use speed figures but in this case you want to ignore them since they don't help your argument. How can you explain that in his last 7 races, his 2 lowest figures came on non-dirt tracks? Is it really that in those 2 non dirt races he just happened to go up against his stiffest competition? Don't buy it? Good neither do I.


I don't care why his two lowest figures came on non-dirt tracks, other than it suggesting he's not especially versatile. Interesting, though, that his best BSF by far (5 points) came in the slop. Maybe his runners will do especially well on off-tracks at Emerald Downs.

Speed figures are not only based on final time? Really? I had no clue. ;)


That doesn't surprise me.

Congrats that you make your own figures. These are the first one's that I heard of that have Invasor's whitney higher than any curlin lifetime race. Forgive me if I'm a little skeptical. Interesting note that you bring up red rocks poor BC turf showing as proof to discredit Curlin's turf performance. Then a few sentences later you are stating how Invasor's whitney was so great when it came in a photo with sun king who was a g2/g3 animal and a complete non factor in his bc performance.


Curlin's BSF 104 in the Man o' War behind Red Rocks is consistent with Red Rocks' next-to-last in the BC Turf where Conduit earned a BSF 116. And I assume we're talking about the same Sun King, admittedly an inconsistent type, which nevertheless earned BSFs in 2006 as good or better than Curlin's best in 2008 on two separate occasions and was beaten a head in the Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and a nose in the Whitney (G1). If that's how you define a "G2/G3 animal", be my guest.

I think you really need to decide how you want to knock curlin. On the one hand you are saying he's not a good non dirt horse and in the next you are contradicting yourself saying that he ran similiar form in the bc as he did in the jcgc despite the fact that his speed figures were lower for the race.

I know exactly how I want to knock Curlin. He's the most overhyped/underperforming HOY in recent memory. He's perhaps the slowest HOY of the decade and probably beyond. He lacks the brilliance that generates fan interest (even Big Brown, which probably is not as good, had more charisma and fan appeal despite the negatives associated with his connections). He's not especially vesatile in terms of distance or surface. And his pedigree is forgettable. Other than that he's the greatest thing since sliced bread.

And you've misinterpreted my comment about Curlin's form. I wasn't talking about speed figures. The only point I was making was that his less than stellar performance while beating inferior horses in the Woodward and JCGC was confirmed when he was defeated by better horses in the BC Classic.

Finally, I am not alone in my opinion of Curlin. This is the rank order by average BSF of each male HOY since 2000 in all graded stakes the year they won the award:

Ghostzapper (2004), 121.5
Mineshaft (2003), 115.0
Tiznow (2000), 112.3
Invasor (2006), 111.3
Saint Liam (2005), 111.2
Point Given (2001), 108.9
Curlin (2007), 107.3
and
Curlin (2008), 108.6

This is the rank order by my average figure for each HOY in all lifetime graded stakes in which they won or placed :

Ghostzapper
Saint Liam
Invasor
Mineshaft
Tiznow
Curlin
Point Given

So regardless of individual race figures and some jostling for position in the middle range, at least Beyer and I agree which horses belong at the top and the bottom.

You can believe whatever you like.

[ghostyapper]

Well you started off with a questionable opinion and now in your attempt to defend that opinion you've gone off the deep end into lunasy.

Red Rocks is beaten by 13+ lengths in the bc and thats "him running to his man o war form" and a knock on curlin's turf performance

Sun King runs a clunker in the classic but thats just him being inconsistent and in no way a knock on invasor who needed a photo to beat him in the whitney.

It is very convenient in your review of Curlins 2008 that you just completely ignore his 2 best races in dubai. Just because there were no beyers does not mean those races didn't happen. His Dubai (best dirt performance of the year BY FAR) was better than any race run by ravens pass on any surface according to the racing post rating. He defeated 2 horses that were running 106-107 beyers in their preps by 7 + lengths so it doesn't take a great imagination to come up with a beyer north of 115 for that performance.

Its obvious dubai takes alot out of the classic winners. Curlin accomplished more after his dubai victory than any US horse ever did including your superstar invasor who never even raced again. I guess judging his career solely based on his post dubai races makes a lot of sense http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/45.gif

And knocking his 2007 is just as silly. Tell me the most recent 3yo classic runner that had a more impressive 3yo season than Curlin. Hint you will have to go back a decade+.

Your HOY beyer stats are quit skewed considering they ignore Curlin's 2 best races, ignore invasor's worst race, and include Curlins turf race when none of the other horses ran on turf (well mineshaft ran on turf at 3 how versatile was he?). But I guess if you ignore all those facts those numbers can make you believe anything you want.

Glad to see since you realize no logic or quantifible numbers help your arguments that you give the BB had more charisma mention. That really helps http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif

Finally it was also convenient of you to join these boards only after the BC classic to knock curlin. What timing.

[Steve R]

Well you started off with a questionable opinion and now in your attempt to defend that opinion you've gone off the deep end into lunasy

Insults always contribute to good discussion, don't they? Interesting, though, that you seem to take criticism of Curlin personally. Why is that? BTW, it lunacy.

Red Rocks is beaten by 13+ lengths in the bc and thats "him running to his man o war form" and a knock on curlin's turf performance

Maybe if you understood "form" better you'd get it. But let's see, Conduit beats Red Rocks with a 116 BSF. Red Rocks beats Curlin with a BSF 108. Whether or not the difference is around 13 lengths at a mile and a half is irrelevant. Red Rocks' Man o' War form gave him no chance in the Turf. And considering he's at best a second rank turf router in the UK at this stage of his career, that's hardly an endorsement of Curlin's turf prowess. Not to mention that the much maligned Big Brown earned a better BSF on turf in a listed race than Curlin did in a G1. That said, you are certainly entitled to your opinion about Curlin's abilities on grass.

Sun King runs a clunker in the classic but thats just him being inconsistent and in no way a knock on invasor who needed a photo to beat him in the whitney.

Maybe the fact that Sun King as a three-year-old never finished closer than 8 1/4 lengths from the front in three races beyond 9f but was 7-4-1-1 in all his other races tells you something. But it doesn't matter. His BSF 113 in the Whitney is faster than any North American race by Curlin in 2008.

It is very convenient in your review of Curlins 2008 that you just completely ignore his 2 best races in dubai. Just because there were no beyers does not mean those races didn't happen. His Dubai (best dirt performance of the year BY FAR) was better than any race run by ravens pass on any surface according to the racing post rating. He defeated 2 horses that were running 106-107 beyers in their preps by 7 + lengths so it doesn't take a great imagination to come up with a beyer north of 115 for that performance.

I'm not ignoring Dubai. I just don't have data directly comparable to BSFs. But I'll accept the RP evaluation, although RP did assign Invasor a higher rating than Curlin for their respective DWC efforts. And you really should read the RP data more closely. Raven's Pass earned a 131 in his QE II stakes, identical to Curlin's figure in the DWC, so Curlin's DWC was not better than any race run by Raven's Pass. And since you've brought up RP ratings, note Curlin's 122. 123, 122 for the Woodard, JCGC and BC Classic. Wasn't one of my earlier points that Curlin's BC Classic ran to the form of his two prior races? I think it was and I think the folks at RP agree.

And knocking his 2007 is just as silly. Tell me the most recent 3yo classic runner that had a more impressive 3yo season than Curlin. Hint you will have to go back a decade+.

Impressive three-year-old season? Absolutely. I never said it wasn't. I suggested only that his races were slow compared to HOY standards.

Your HOY beyer stats are quit skewed considering they ignore Curlin's 2 best races, ignore invasor's worst race, and include Curlins turf race when none of the other horses ran on turf (well mineshaft ran on turf at 3 how versatile was he?). But I guess if you ignore all those facts those numbers can make you believe anything you want.

I'm sorry if I wasn't more selective in cherry-picking the races for comparison or for restricting the analysis to ALL their North American races. Maybe I should have left out Curlin's BSF 119 in the slop, his only ever effort above BSF 114. That would be fair, wouldn't it? We wouldn't want to give him an advantage for perhaps moving up on an off-track, would we?

Glad to see since you realize no logic or quantifible numbers help your arguments that you give the BB had more charisma mention. That really helps http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/smilies/47.gif

You alluded to why I was knocking Curlin and I included his lack of brilliance as a factor. It's the same reason I think Ghostzapper was superior to Cigar. He was faster (much) and he was more exciting. The esthetic component of racing may not be important to you, which is fine. It is important to me. And apparently it's important to the general public which, despite Curlin's accomplishments, never warmed up to him as they did to Big Brown. To each his own.

Finally it was also convenient of you to join these boards only after the BC classic to knock curlin. What timing.

Now who's the lunatic?

This has deteriorated into a useless dialog, so you continue to believe Curlin is one of the greats and I'll continue to believe he is a nice, mid-level G1-quality runner. Then everybody's happy.

[ghostyapper]

Maybe if you understood "form" better you'd get it. But let's see, Conduit beats Red Rocks with a 116 BSF. Red Rocks beats Curlin with a BSF 108. Whether or not the difference is around 13 lengths at a mile and a half is irrelevant. Red Rocks' Man o' War form gave him no chance in the Turf. And considering he's at best a second rank turf router in the UK at this stage of his career, that's hardly an endorsement of Curlin's turf prowess. Not to mention that the much maligned Big Brown earned a better BSF on turf in a listed race than Curlin did in a G1. That said, you are certainly entitled to your opinion about Curlin's abilities on grass.

You are correct I have no idea what your idea of "form" is. A horse that runs a considerbly LOWER speed figure is not running to form. Whether he had run to that form and still lost is irrelevant. You stated that Red Rock's 2nd to last finish did not speak well of Curlin's turf ability.


Maybe the fact that Sun King as a three-year-old never finished closer than 8 1/4 lengths from the front in three races beyond 9f but was 7-4-1-1 in all his other races tells you something. But it doesn't matter. His BSF 113 in the Whitney is faster than any North American race by Curlin in 2008..

Not sure what you're getting at with sun king here. He ran average races at 10 furlongs 9 furlongs etc. The fact that Invasor needed a photo to defeat him does not help your “speed figures”. And you leave it with "his 113 is higher than any curlin beyer." Way to bow out of an argument elegantly


I'm not ignoring Dubai. I just don't have data directly comparable to BSFs. But I'll accept the RP evaluation, although RP did assign Invasor a higher rating than Curlin for their respective DWC efforts. And you really should read the RP data more closely. Raven's Pass earned a 131 in his QE II stakes, identical to Curlin's figure in the DWC, so Curlin's DWC was not better than any race run by Raven's Pass. And since you've brought up RP ratings, note Curlin's 122. 123, 122 for the Woodard, JCGC and BC Classic. Wasn't one of my earlier points that Curlin's BC Classic ran to the form of his two prior races? I think it was and I think the folks at RP agree.

Well drf has curlins DWC at 131, 1 point higher than ravens pass best. But thats a pretty minor aspect to focus on. Curlin's best was as fast or faster than raven's pass (What was invasor's by the way, I don't have that). Your posts make it sound like Curlin's best was nowhere near raven's pass. Speaking of raven's pass, he earned a 110 beyer for his bc win. Its funny how you continue to claim that Curlin ran to the same form in the bc as his previous 2 races when the winning beyer was LOWER than his beyers for those races. Yea keep believing it wasn't the surface.


I'm sorry if I wasn't more selective in cherry-picking the races for comparison or for restricting the analysis to ALL their North American races. Maybe I should have left out Curlin's BSF 119 in the slop, his only ever effort above BSF 114. That would be fair, wouldn't it? We wouldn't want to give him an advantage for perhaps moving up on an off-track, would we?


Well if you want to take out his career high beyer in the slop, I'd think you'd have to do the same for ghostzapper and mineshaft, who both achieved career highs in the slop. Also St. Liams 123 in the whitney is very questionable, even beyer questions this figure today. He never ran close to that figure before or after. Sorry it just seems flawed to call a horse average compared to other HOY based on numbers where you are leaving out his 2 fastest races.


You alluded to why I was knocking Curlin and I included his lack of brilliance as a factor. It's the same reason I think Ghostzapper was superior to Cigar. He was faster (much) and he was more exciting. The esthetic component of racing may not be important to you, which is fine. It is important to me. And apparently it's important to the general public which, despite Curlin's accomplishments, never warmed up to him as they did to Big Brown. To each his own.


With the exception of ghostzapper (who was a monster), I would put Curlin's 2 best races (bc and dubai) up against any 2 from the horses you mentioned. Add that to his other 3 G1 wins, including a preakness, and you have a brilliant horse worthy of the award, not some average slow horse that happened to come along in a weak year, like you seem to think he is.

Your BB "asthetic component" argument is ridiculous. This same public went gaga over War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones and they will go gaga over any horse attempting the triple crown. They would have gone gaga over street sense last year, until of course his attempt was thwarted by that slow horse curlin in stakes record time. The “hors popularity” argument is a very poor judge of horse ability. Or do you believe Funny Cide was better than Ghostzapper since the general public loved one and never "warmed up" to the other?